A total of 18 Division IA teams have given the reigns to new coaches for their football teams. Here are the 18 coaches in new places, with what their season outlook is, coaching outlook, number of years they have to build up the program, and projected season record for the 2008 season.
Only the Cowboys and Patriots have the combination of unwavering arrogance and structural fortitude to confidently trade a 4th round pick for a player like Pacman; in other words, I love the trade for Dallas.
Okay, babeee!!! It’s March Madness time!!! Except, the madness is the NFL free agency period, not college hoops. NFL teams have been making big name cuts and signing free agents to big, BIG contracts.
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At this time of year I get tons of questions about the upcoming NFL Draft (April 26th & 27th), and there is one question I field more than any other. Whom do I think is horribly overrated and destined for NFL failure, and whom do I see that is a real under-the-radar value?
This is the 3rd year I’m doing this, and thus far my track record is pretty successful. I’ve made 9 boom and 8 bust predictions, and I’ve only missed on 2 of each type so far. Of course, it’s still too early in most cases to completely anoint or write off any of those players, but we’ve got a pretty good read on booms like Nick Mangold, David Harris, and Darryl Tapp and disappointments like Vernon Davis and Jimmy Williams.
Prospecting for Gold:
Mike Hart, RB, Michigan: I’m a Buckeye lifer, but I’m not one who hates all things Michigan, which is a good thing considering my wife’s family is chock full of Wolverines, and I live on the west side of the state. What Mike Hart lacks in size, and he’s shorter in person than he looks when Jake Long plucks him from the pile like a mother tiger scruffing a cub, he more than makes up for in toughness, leadership, and the ability to break tackles. Because of his diminutive stature and heavy mileage on his legs, he’s going to fall to the 4th or 5th round (or perhaps further), but I agree completely with my Wed. night drinking buddy Jason on Hart: whoever drafts him is getting a proven power runner with great hands and very good blitz pickup skills, and he’s not going to embarrass your organization. I humbly predict he has a more productive NFL career than the more highly-touted short RB Ray Rice.
Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech: Royal often got lost in the shuffle of the Hokie offense, which featured a group of 4 WR's who all stand a good chance of hearing their names called this draft. But those who watched a lot of Hokie football know that Royal has the most polished talent and best hands of the group, and he adds a dimension as a punt and kick returner. He stood out at the Combine for his power display, and I’ve seen him pancake many a DB. Royal is likely to get drafted in the 50-75 overall range, but he might be more NFL-ready than several wideouts that go ahead of him. He has all the makings of a very successful #3 WR and dynamic special teamer.
Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan: Mock the MAC all you want, but Jones consistently shined on a team that has seen little sunshine. Forced to play inside because the EMU program is an ongoing unfunny joke, Jones learned how to play with power, using his hands and quickness to get off blocks and make plays. When he was outside, Jones wreaked havoc on some pretty good tackles (Jake Long and Jeff Otah, among others) and showed sound fundamentals with a nose for the ball. Because he’s played everything from a 1-technique to a 5-technique, he’s an ideal fit for a 3-4 defense looking for a DE who can make some plays in the backfield and hold his ground. A strong showing at the Senior Bowl workouts raised his profile enough that he’s a likely 2nd or 3rd rounder, but having seen far too much EMU football (side tangent: go back to being the Hurons already!) and MAC action over the years, I can tell you he shares many traits with another MAC star that lacked a defined position. He’s not as fast or dynamic as Jason “Dancing with the Stars” Taylor, but Jason Jones is going to make some team very happy by about the middle of the 2009 season.
John Sullivan, C, Notre Dame: His woefully over-their-head linemates cast a negative shadow on Sullivan, but he stands out on tape when his guards actually got their jobs done. Sullivan is a little undersized, but as an outstanding prep wrestler he understands how to use balance and leverage better than most. He’s smart enough to make the line reads and adjustment calls on the fly, and his coaches loved his work ethic and positive attitude in a terrible season for the Irish. Sullivan reminds me of Jeff Faine, minus the tattoo sleeve and some of the subtle nastiness.
DaJuan Morgan, S, NC State: A converted corner with very good size, Morgan consistently made plays all over the field. He’s a football-smart guy who understands the difference between making a big hit and making a good tackle, and he does a great job of keeping plays in front of him. Much like Tanard Jackson last draft, Morgan doesn’t have blazing speed or gaudy stats, but his ability to step in as a nickel corner if needed as well as his sound fundamentals as a safety should make for a long, successful NFL career.
Lead Balloons:
Jeff Otah, T, Pittsburgh: He’s still learning how to play football, and to some people that means “think how great he’ll be once he gets it”. To me, I see that as a recipe for early disappointment. When you’re a lower draft pick the burden of expectation won’t dog you so much if you aren’t ready right away. Otah won’t get that benefit of the doubt as a likely top 15 overall pick. He reminds me a great deal physically of former 1st rounder George Foster, who is struggling to hold onto a job on a subpar OL in Detroit after flaming badly in Denver. Like Foster, Otah plays with heavy legs, has no idea how to use his hands, and really struggles to locate defenders that aren’t running right at him. He might indeed develop into a very good right guard someday, maybe even a passable left tackle, but he is not close to that right now. You want to be the team that signs him to his second contract, not the team that entrusts him to protect your QB in 2008 with great fan expectations.
Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan: You knew I couldn’t heap praise on one Wolverine without bad-mouthing another one…I’ve always said I believe Manningham is one of the best college WRs in a long time, but I’ve never been high on his NFL prospects. As much as I’m impressed with his slinkiness in the open field and ability to get open and make acrobatic catches on deep balls, I’ve seen far too many flags of impending trouble: getting bumped off routes by corners for whom “soft” would be a compliment (Tracy Porter); upstage his QB after not running his route with precision, when a well-run route would have resulted in an easy catch; consistently avoid physical contact whenever possible; all those terribly untimely drops; an attitude that keeps evolving into something that makes TO seem both humble and a model teammate; testing positive for pot at the Combine of all places. The last two have already dropped him from the 1st round into at least the 2nd and possibly 3rd round, but that’s still too high for a limited talent with all those issues.
Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers: Rice is one of those guys that everyone roots for and genuinely seems to like, one of those rare prospects where everyone focuses almost exclusively on the positives. But the film does not lie—Rice has some major flaws that are going to hinder his NFL ability. He’s short, but that’s not the issue. Watch him come to an almost complete stop when he changes direction, or how his legs straighten and his feet stop moving when he gets hit. Because he’s not a blazer and prefers to run inside, at the NFL level Rice has to bounce off those hits or run through them. Unlike Mike Hart, Rice is not much of a pass blocker and hasn’t shown great hands (that doesn’t mean he lacks them, it means he hasn’t been asked to use them). In short, he’s an undersized power back who doesn’t run with a lot of fundamental toughness or lateral shiftiness. In my eyes he is not demonstrably better (in part considering his vastly superior OL) than either Xavier Omon or Kalvin McRae, both of whom will be lucky to hear their names called, yet Rice could go as high as the mid 2nd round.
Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas: Talib is sort of the corner version of Mario Manningham, minus the lousy teammate baggage. Like Manningham, Talib has a proven flair for the dramatic and has loads of natural ability that few others can claim. Also like Mario, those special plays often come at the expense of doing all the little things that make most guys successful. Talib is a horrible fundamental tackler; his idea of tackling is to run real fast into the ballcarrier. He loves to bait QBs, but pretty much every NFL-caliber WR he faced off against (Jordy Nelson, Maurice Purify, Will Franklin) took advantage of his gambling nature and set him up with double moves and deliberate false steps. Also like Manningham, Talib tested positive for marijuana at the Combine, which is tantamount to admitting chronic use of the chronic. Almost all Talib’s faults are coachable, which gives me hope he will prove me wrong here. But I’m certainly not willing to wager a top 50 pick on that, though some NFL team almost certainly will.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M: This is not so much directed at Mr. Bennett as it is to hopefully squash the amazingly inaccurate perception that underwhelming basketball power forwards make great TE prospects. Other than Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez, the list of success stories is almost empty. People seem to ignore the failures of Ricky Dudley (a 1st rounder and the best hoopster of the bunch) or Ed Nelson or nearly 25 other guys who have tried to make the jump in the last decade or so. Bennett is kind of hard to evaluate because the Aggies didn’t ask him to do much, so I see why folks get excited at his athletic potential. But be real careful about expectations for Bennett, a likely 3rd rounder; for nearly every guy who has tried to make this transition before, it has not been pretty or lasted particularly long.
