| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 18th December, 2008 - 11:09 am
 Last Week: 11-5, moving the overall season forecast to 141-82-1.
For most of the season, the Giants and Titans have cruised ahead of the packs in their respective conferences, seemingly destined for a Super Bowl matchup with just 2-3 losses between them. But in the last month, both powers have shown very real vulnerabilities that are causing fans to start looking for the panic button. Some of those fans were kind enough to solicit my opinion.
What’s ailing the Giants? It starts with losing their top two offensive weapons. They employ a backfield-by-committee, but BR Brandon Jacobs is the sort of unconventional talent that gives defenses fits. Teams don’t have to do anything special to prep for Derrick Ward or Ahmad Bradshaw, who have more combined lost fumbles (4) than TD's (3). Normally they could help that problem by going to the air more, but Plaxico Burress went and shot himself in the leg. Losing Plax fundamentally changes their offense, or more precisely, how to defend their offense. Dallas and Philly covered the wideouts with single corner coverage playing inside technique, meaning they allow the receivers to release outside. But the safeties don’t need to help on Amani Toomer or Domenik Hixon because they either lack the speed (Toomer) or size and hands (Hixon) to make those tough downfield sideline catches.
Plaxico makes those plays better than anyone, and Eli Manning clearly lacks the consistent touch and precision to make those throws to anyone else. This allows the opposing safeties to both crowd the box in run support and also to apply tighter coverage and help the LB's on TE Kevin Boss and the slot receivers. Boss has just 5 catches in 3 games, and Steve Smith actually has negative YAC since Plaxico shot himself. Getting Jacobs back will certainly help, but RT Kareem McKenzie’s back problems aren’t going to get any better without lots of rest, and he was sorely missed against Dallas. The defense will have to pick up the slack, a tall order with nagging injuries to Fred Robbins, Justin Tuck, and Aaron Ross, plus Matthias Kiwanuka looking like he plowed into the rookie wall despite being in his 3rd season. They desperately need the bye week in the playoffs, which means they have to win one of their last two games. A week of rest will help cure a lot of what ails them, but with no Plaxico they can no longer be considered the front-runner even if they hold onto the #1 seed.
The issues with the Titans aren’t as dramatic. The defense lost its teeth with the injuries to Kyle Vandenbosch and Albert Haynesworth, both resting up for the playoffs. QB Kerry Collins has not been quite as sharp, and defenses have caught onto the fact the Titans almost never throw the ball to the deep middle; Collins has thrown just 5 attempts longer than 18 yards to what counts as “the middle” in the last 6 games, according to game charters I trust on another website. Just from a purely subjective view, it appears the offensive line is tired.
They’re still solid in pass protection, but Michael Roos and Jake Scott aren’t firing off the ball with authority in the running game lately. This is not a team that wins with overwhelming talent, so their margin of error is lower than many of the other playoff teams. I’ll trust Jeff Fisher will have his troops ready once their games start counting again.
Thursday Game:
Indianapolis (2) at Jacksonville (22): The Jaguars pleasantly surprised me last week, winning in Green Bay and showing some heart. That gives me pause to consider they might embrace the role of spoiler against divisional nemesis Indianapolis, a team they’ve fared well against lately. But the Jaguars have no discernible passing offense, and the Colts' defense crushes one-dimensional offenses. Expect 9 in the box until David Garrard proves he can find a WR who can make a play, and as good as Mo Jones-Drew is pounding between the tackles, he’s not going to find success without passing game help that isn’t likely to materialize. Colts win a defensive-oriented game, 20-13.
Saturday Game:
Baltimore (6) at Dallas (8): It doesn’t get any easier for Ravens' rookie QB Joe Flacco, heading from Blitzburgh to a Dallas defense that leads the league in sacks and is playing its best overall game lately. I don’t see either team having much success offensively, which means the game will probably come down to special teams and turnovers. Baltimore gets the advantage on both counts, as I just don’t trust Tony Romo in meaningful games against a very good Ravens' defense. Matt Stover and Ed Reed on special teams are the keys in a Baltimore road win. Ravens 13, Cowboys 10.
Sunday Games:
New Orleans (19) at Detroit (32): If the Lions play the way they did against Indy last Sunday, they will win this game. The Saints are sunk and have been brutal on the road all season, and they have no answer for Calvin Johnson, a very bright diamond in the sludge factory that is Detroit. That the Lions have not quit on their lame duck coach speaks volumes about the kind of person Rod Marinelli is, and there is a lot of pride and focus on avoiding the ignominious distinction of a winless season. I’m probably crazy--my wife will confirm that--but I see the Lions breaking the streak and pulling out a 30-29 victory over the disappointing Saints.
Miami (16) at Kansas City (31): I’m going with another upset here for a couple of reasons. I think Chiefs' coach Herm Edwards will be able to scheme to stop his former QB Chad Pennington, and his secondary has the personnel who can pull off jumping shorter routes and closing quickly on the ball. I also still cling to the incredible home field advantage in Arrowhead Stadium the Chiefs have enjoyed in December over the years. It defies the evidence of this year’s team, but the Chiefs have been so close to winning so many games, I just feel they are due. If it can snow on the Vegas strip, anything can happen! Kansas City 20, Miami 17.
Arizona (18) at New England (10): I’m married to an engineer. My attempt to break down this game in equation form...Early East coast start + no running game + nothing to play for/home field with snowy weather + Pats needing a win badly = major mismatch in favor of New England. The variable is Arizona’s passing offense, which features 3 Pro Bowlers, going against a Patriots' secondary/LB corps that is obviously vulnerable to potent passing attacks. New England 33, Arizona 24.
Pittsburgh (1) at Tennessee (5): What shaped up as a compelling battle royale for the #1 seed in the AFC has lost some teeth, thanks to the absence of the Titans two best players Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vandenbosch. As the Ravens proved, the only way to beat the Steelers is to snuff the run and bring the heat on Big Ben. With those two stalwarts gone from the DL, the Titans will struggle to do either with any sort of consistency. Because both these teams play styles that dictate close games, the Titans will likely keep it interesting if their OL can keep Kerry Collins upright against James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley et al. Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 16.
San Diego (20) at Tampa Bay (13): San Diego has done a nice job of staving off mathematical elimination, what with the miraculous comeback against the Chiefs last week. And if they win this game and Denver loses, next week’s game between the two will decide the AFC West. That kind of hope is nice, but the Bucs are in playoff desperation mode of their own. Factor in that Tampa is at home, it’s an early game on the East coast, and the Chargers lack the ability to run the ball the way the Bucs have been gashed the last couple of weeks. The Bucs will happily welcome back Jeff Garcia, after watching what should be the pathetic last hurrah of Brian Griese last week. You might want to watch this one to catch the last hurrah of LaDainian Tomlinson as a feature back. Tampa Bay 29, San Diego 24.
Cincinnati (27) at Cleveland (26): Does anyone really care? I mean, I’m from greater Cleveland and lived in Columbus for a few years, and this battle of Ohio is the least appealing game on the docket. Cleveland cannot score at all (their last offensive touchdown was before Thanksgiving), but the Bengals are prone to long scoring droughts and turnovers themselves. Bet the under in a Cleveland 16-13 win.
San Francisco (23) at St. Louis (29): Having to watch this game instead of some of the other games is the NFL’s lump of coal to the residents of the Bay Area and greater St. Louis. 49ers 33, Rams 17.
NY Jets (12) at Seattle (25): This is Mike Holmgren’s last home game as Seahawks' coach, which is not an insignificant fact. Making it even more significant is that Brett Favre is the opposing QB. Aside from the emotional aspect, Favre has not been sharp lately, and the windy cold in Seattle will only exacerbate the problem. The Seahawks' D has played better at home, and nobody knows how to bait Favre into INT's better than his old mentor Holmgren. I’m just really feeling the Seahawks in this one even though Thomas Jones could have an epic day and make this pick look foolish. Seattle sends Holmgren out a winner by shocking the Jets 31-26.
Houston (14) at Oakland (28): This game is a good example of the “same old” teams. Same old Texans, who once again have played much better once the games started meaning nothing. Same old Raiders, who once again have boatloads of internal conflict and no apparent rational gameplan from owner Al Davis down to the lowest PR intern. Houston 27, Oakland 9.
Atlanta (11) at Minnesota (7): Terrible time for Vikings' immovable object DT Pat Williams to go down with a broken scapula, with Michael Turner and a physical OL coming to town in a game loaded with playoff implications. At least they still have Jared Allen to make life difficult for Matt Ryan, and Antoine Winfield remains the best run support CB in the league. I generally don’t buy into the “Team X needs this game more” theory, but this game tests my doubt because if Atlanta loses, their playoff aspirations are in serious trouble. The Vikings could survive a loss and still control their own fate, but the focus this week is on winning this one and getting a stress-free finale as they prep for the playoffs. I’ll give a very thin edge to the Vikings at home, thanks in part to their OL’s ability to handle Jon Abraham, who is the most egregious Pro Bowl snub in the NFC. Minnesota 23, Atlanta 20.
Buffalo (30) at Denver (17): Denver has proven vulnerable to inexplicable results all season, but the way the Bills have played lately it would take the worst game of the Shanahan era for the Broncos to lose this one. I just don’t see Buffalo responding well from last week’s horrendous choke job against the Jets; my spies tell me this is an organization that has accepted defeat, from the coaching staff on down. Denver should have no problem overcoming the Spinal Tap-esque (tangent: how do you type umlauts?) health of their RB's. Broncos 36, Bills 13.
Philadelphia (9) at Washington (24): I’ll keep this simple: Philly is on a playoff mission while the Redskins would lose to the Lions if they play the way they have the last 6 weeks. RIP Sammy Baugh--it’s too bad the current 'Skins probably have no idea who you are. Philly rolls 34-6.
Sunday Night:
Carolina (3) at NY Giants (4): Carolina has everything to play for here, and the way they’ve been running the ball lately is a major problem for the reeling Giants. Just when you finally start containing Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers turn Steve Smith loose on the secondary. As mentioned above, the Giants lack the playmakers to outscore good offenses. Even if they had Jacobs and Plaxico, the Panthers' defense is well-suited to handle the Giants' offense. Chris Gamble, Ken Lucas, and Richard Marshall are the best 1-2-3 CB package in the NFL, and their LB's drop into coverage and handle screens and flares as well as any team in the league. Of course, just when you start shoveling dirt on the Giants, they rise up and throw you into the grave, and that’s a very distinct possibility here. The Giants absolutely can win this one at home and shut everyone up, but I’m sticking with the Panthers. Carolina 24, New York 14.
Monday Night:
Green Bay (21) at Chicago (15): Green Bay slaughtered the Bears in the first meeting, but that Packers' team appears long gone. Chicago still has lots to play for even though they could potentially already be eliminated before kickoff. Chief among those things to play for is retribution against a hated rival, and these Bears have fared quite well recently in emotionally-charged games at home. I expect that trend to continue against a Packers' team that lacks toughness and power in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Chicago 27, Green Bay 17.
--Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
