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Football Meteorology For Week 17
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 26th December, 2008 - 9:10 am
Peyton Manning's playoff resume has been greatly debated. Here is how his numbers compare to the regular season, along with Tom Brady and more than two dozen other all-time greats.
There’s a difference between a favorite and a lock. When up against a team with playoff-level talent, it’s rare that the team with the better record ever appears in the second category.
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Last Week: 6-10, moving the season record to 147-92-1. That's what you get when you pick Detroit and Kansas City!
The final week is here, which means very different things for different teams. For my fellow Lions' fans and all you Browns' and Chiefs' backers, it means the end is finally here. The upper tier of teams is simply trying to avoid injury while maintaining some semblance of momentum into the playoffs. And, there are the win-or-go-home games that keep the NFL special up to the final snap of the season.
This season has been a special one for me. My daughter was born the on the first Monday of the season, and I watched the opening Monday Night Football games in the hospital holding my beautiful Elizabeth. My 3-year-old son has learned to catch pretty well, and he already repeats the oft-heard phrase "Stupid Lions" more than he should.
I've also come to know several players much better, developing friendships as well as upgraded insider contacts. One of the most wide-open playoff chases in history is heading into perhaps the most wide-open playoffs in history; just about any team that gets in has a reasonable shot at winning the Super Bowl, which is fairly rare. Buckle up and enjoy what should be a thrilling next month in the NFL!
Games that matter a lot: Miami (11) at New York Jets (13): Brett Favre looks tired, both physically and mentally. He's working with a group of wideouts that don't make life easier for a QB, and I think the need to make a perfect throw on pretty much every throw has worn down the anointed savior of the Jets. The guy he usurped, Chad Pennington, is poised for one of the most triumphant redemption stories of all time, vanquishing the team that gave up on him with a largely anonymous group that has performed perhaps the greatest one-year turnaround in pro sports history. It intrigues me that another downtrodden franchise, the Tampa Bay Rays, entered that same argument this year. In the Year of the Turnaround, I'll take the team engineering the bigger turnaround, even on the road. Miami lets Pennington taste the sweetest payback this side of the Goldman family in a 23-17 Dolphins' win.
Denver (19) at San Diego (20): Very few things shock me in the NFL anymore, but this year's AFC West race is on the verge of genuinely shocking me. San Diego has been one loss or one Denver win away from elimination for the last 3 weeks, and yet they find themselves on the verge of a division title despite being 4-8 at one point. The Broncos' almost incomprehensible run of RB injuries and inability to rush the passer are killers. They have just 2 sacks and 6 QB hurries in the last 3 games, and if they give Philip Rivers that sort of comfort in the pocket, the Chargers will cover by at least double the 8.5 point spread. San Diego has really raised the level of play in the trenches in their 3-game win streak although the Denver OL is much better in pass protection than any the Bolts have faced recently. I like the playmakers in the San Diego secondary to have a big day, thanks in part to the Broncos forced to play their 7th starting RB, rookie practice squadder Cory Boyd. Chargers cap one of the most improbable comebacks ever and win the AFC West with a 30-17 win that gets Mike Shanahan's seat uncomfortably warm.
New England (9) at Buffalo (24): The Patriots need to win and for the Jets to beat Miami to make the playoffs. I forecast a Dolphins' victory, which means the Patriots could be playing for nothing, but they won’t know that until the final gun sounds. Having the Bills stun the Broncos last week might have been just the fodder Bill Belichick needed to refocus his Pats on the perils of scoreboard watching. New England in a rout, 38-10.
New York Giants (1) at Minnesota (10): Troubling stat for the Vikings: Adrian Peterson has fumbled 10 times in the last 4 games, and two others were overturned via replay. As well as Tarvaris Jackson has played at QB, seemingly mind-melding with Visanthe Shiancoe, Peterson's ball security present a major problem. It could get in his head, and he runs with less authority, or perhaps the fumblitis continues. You’re not going to beat the Giants without winning the turnover battle, and these Giants are not the type of team to ease up just because they’ve already sealed the #1 seed. The Vikings have a growing history of finishing the season poorly and squandering playoff opportunity, and the clouds of doom look ominous over the Twin Cities. The Giants rain on the Vikings' parade, thanks in part to the absence of Pat Williams. New York 24, Minnesota 20.
Dallas (8) at Philadelphia (12): The Cowboys find themselves in a fortuitous situation, regaining their own playoff destiny after watching Baltimore run away with it Saturday night. Philly helped that situation by playing one of the worst games by any potential playoff team not in a West division all season. I'm going to surprise most of you frequent readers on this one. I think Dallas is going to embrace their renewed life and play with the passionate execution and confident energy they lacked last week. I believe the Dallas defense steps up and makes life miserable for Donovan McNabb, and because Eagles' coach Andy Reid apparently doesn't realize his team is allowed to run the ball on 1st or 2nd down, Philly helps them out again. You beat Dallas (or any 3-4 team) by pounding the ball right at them and by hitting passes on crossing routes and play action, things that Philly does not execute well. I even think Tony Romo will put forth a better, less shaky effort even though Jason Witten's gimpiness presents a problem. The Cowboys are too talented to look a gift horse in the mouth (what the hell does that mean anyways?), and the Eagles just haven’t been sharp the last couple of weeks, even in beating Cleveland. Dallas 27, Philadelphia 17.
Games that matter some: Chicago (15) at Houston (21): Last week is a perfect illustration of the chronic frustration of being a Texans fan. After rolling to the first 4-game win streak in team history and virtually ensured of their first winning record, they go to Oakland and get bombarded by the inept Raiders. My spies tell me that was a soul-crushing defeat in the locker room, and that pall has carried over into this week's game prep. This impending matchup won’t be much different for the Texans. A big part of Oakland's success was special teams' play, and that's an area where the Bears excel too. Another factor working for the Bears: the complete collapse of the Texans' pass rush, which recorded pressure against the putrid Raiders' OL just twice in 26 attempts. Chicago's iffy line has solidified lately, and rookie RB Matt Forte is outstanding in pass protect situations. My gut told me two weeks ago the Bears were about to embark on an unlikely playoff run, and as long as they contain Andre Johnson they should have no trouble with the Texans. That’s a tall order, but if Tommie Harris, Alex Brown & Co. play the way they have recently up front, that will really help. Chicago stays in the picture with a 24-20 win.
Carolina (4) at New Orleans (16): The biggest reason to watch here is to see if Saints' QB Drew Brees can break the over-rated Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record. He needs a little over 400 yards to catch Marino although it's worth pointing out Danny Boy threw for 48 TD's on a 14-2 team that lost in the Super Bowl while the Saints are 8-7 and Brees has "just" 30 TD throws. The Panthers did a great job limiting Brees in the first meeting, and they still have to win to wrap up the NFC South title and the #2 seed. A cynic might argue that the #5 seed is a better spot than #2, as that means a trip to Arizona for a likely easy victory and a chance to stay sharp while the #2 seed stagnates at home, but that argument is for another week. DeAngelo Williams wraps up the fantasy football MVP in a shootout that Carolina wins 33-28.
Jacksonville (23) at Baltimore (6): The Jaguars made personnel man Shack Harris the fall guy for a disappointing season, but other than the unwise gambles on Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, Harris had a pretty strong track record. This is what happens when you reward a coach long-term for one strong year in an otherwise uneven career. It is clear Jack Del Rio miserably failed to mold these players into a team and dropped the ball on keeping them hungry after last year’s success. Now they lost the man responsible for assembling a talented roster and are stuck with the guy who steered the ship full-speed into the iceberg. In the tough AFC South, now is not the time to keep taking on water. The Ravens have to win to get in, and they should find little resistance from a Jaguars' team that sure looks like it fired its final bullets last week. Baltimore cruises 20-10.
Oakland (25) at Tampa Bay (14): Major kudos to Johnnie Lee Higgins, who has accounted for 3 touchdowns in the last two weeks and is proving to be a legit threat in both the passing game and as a punt returner. His late-season surge pales in comparison to the Bucs Antonio Bryant, however. For a guy out of football in 2007 because of attitude and apathy towards his future, Bryant deserves great credit for getting his act together and finally fulfilling all the great expectations that came with his great God-given physical talent. Too bad he faces Nnamdi Asomugha, the best CB on the planet, this week. Jeff Garcia has apparently forgotten how to throw to anyone else, and the Bucs have forgotten how to show any sort of physicality in run defense. That's a matchup problem against the Raiders. Can Oakland seize that advantage on an East Coast roadie against a team desperately clinging to playoff hope? I doubt it, but I bet it's closer than your bookie believes it will, currently 13.5 points. Take the points and the Raiders, but the Bucs win 20-16.
St. Louis (30) at Atlanta (7): Hard to anticipate how the Falcons handle this game, as they have already clinched a playoff berth. Judging by the way rookie coach Mike Smith has handled his young team so far, they’re likely to come out strong, but he might be tempted to let off the gas early. The Rams are on the verge of losing 10 in a row and could wind up with the worst point differential in the league, even worse than winless Detroit. They lost their last 3 road games by an average of 21 points, and that seems about right for this one too. Falcons 35, Rams 14.
Game that matters not but is worth watching: Tennessee (2) at Indianapolis (3): Both teams are locked into their playoff slots, so there is nothing to play for but pride and momentum. I think Tony Dungy learned the importance of keeping his starters sharp last season, when the Colts tanked the finale (against the Titans) and then got bounced early in the playoffs. And no team is playing sharper than the Colts right now. Tennessee proved their point last weekend in dominating the Steelers and wrapping up home field throughout the playoffs, and that likely means we get to see Vince Young at the helm for at last half the game. Indy keeps rolling into their Wild Card laugher against the AFC West chump, err champ. Colts 24, Titans 13.
Thank God the season is over: Washington (22) at San Francisco (17): Just a hunch, but I think Washington scratched their "spoiler" itch last week in shocking the Eagles. That also sealed a non-losing season, so they have absolutely zero incentive to show up for this cross-country affair. The Niners are still rallying around interim coach Mike Singletary, knowing each strong win makes the organization more likely to hire him permanently. They'd better, or else he'll be coaching the rival Rams next season. San Francisco 27, Washington 10.
Seattle (28) at Arizona (18): Arizona finds itself in a real pickle. They've dropped 4 of their last 5 games, 3 by at least 3 touchdowns, since clinching the worst division in NFL history. They also have several key players that could really benefit from some rest before next week's Wild Card round game. Does Coach Whisenhunt give them the R & R, or does he push his lieges and try to build some positive momentum and get back on track for the playoffs? It's not like the Cardinals have ever been in this situation before. Seattle has won two in a row and has played tangibly better since the Thanksgiving beatdown in Dallas. They are still highly turnover prone, and the Cards' saving grace this year has been the defensive ability to force turnovers, especially in division games. I expect Coach Whisenhunt to try and right the ship for the upcoming playoff home game by pushing his players hard, and the leaky Seattle pass defense should be just what the doctor ordered. Arizona 28, Seattle 20.
Detroit (32) at Green Bay (26): 0-16? Oh yeah! The odds are better that the instant lottery tickets I bought as a stocking stuffer for my wife win $10,000 than they are for the Lions to win this game. I'll hope for both but expect neither. Green Bay 33, Detroit 17.
Cleveland (29) at Pittsburgh (5): Bruce Gradkowski steps in as the 4th Browns' QB to start a game this season. At the 2006 Scouting Combine, Bruce ran as fast as Vince Young and notched the highest QB Wonderlic score. He was gracious enough to spend a few minutes talking to me, and he's a guy I genuinely root for. Alas, he was also let go by Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay, and when Jon Gruden gives up on a QB, it's pretty much over; Gruden would carry 6 QB's if he could. No chance Mike Tomlin lets his Steelers go into the playoffs on a down note. Pittsburgh 30, Cleveland 6.
Kansas City (31) at Cincinnati (27): If the Bengals win, their draft slot could conceivably go from the current #4 position to the #7 spot. That's the difference between getting Aaron Curry and solving the middle LB issue for the next decade and getting Beanie Wells, a running back with fairly high risk/reward potential. History tells us that if he goes to Cincy, Beanie will bust, but the only way Curry isn’t a Pro Bowl-caliber starter is injury. The Chiefs cement the #2 slot with a loss, meaning they can basically get whomever they want. The Bengals have a long history of finishing strong even when they stink, and they're doing it once again. Cincinnati 32, Kansas City 30.
And remember, New Years Eve is amateur drinking hour. Stay stone cold sober if you have to drive anywhere and stay hyper-alert and vigilant on the roads.
