| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 6th February, 2009 - 5:20 pm
 This is perhaps the thinnest senior class in years, with the potential that no seniors are selected in the first three rounds. Four prominent underclassmen head the list and all could hear their names called in the first round.
Updated 2/6/09
1. Mark Sanchez, USC. 6’3”, 225 pound 4th year junior
Positives: Big, strong-armed athlete with sound fundamentals. Throws a beautiful, catchable ball all over the field. Strong legs, both as a base for throwing and in absorbing lower-body contact, not easy to sack. Shows a good awareness of his receivers’ tendencies and where they like to catch the ball. Charismatic leader who recognizes different teammates have different buttons to push. Showed steady improvement once he earned the starting nod, learns quickly. Fought off challenges for his job from some talented competition, so he has determination and a competitive spirit. Surveys the field well, quickly and correctly identifying the best matchups against the coverage adeptly. Has experience commanding a huddle full of NFL-caliber talent. Good touch on short and mid-range throws, and his accuracy fits with West Coast offense systems. Quick, fluid release with a strong wrist snap. Very good at buying time with his legs and keeping his eyes downfield. Faster than he looks, can chew up some yards running outside the pocket. Very confident, mature person who is mentally prepared to handle the inevitable failures just as well as the successes in the NFL. His Trojans coach Pete Carroll is a former NFL coach and Carroll is on record that he believes Sanchez will be a better pro than Carson Palmer, and that carries weight.
Negatives: Most people will point to his lack of experience (just 16 career starts), but I worry just as much about the level of competition he faced in getting that experience. USC played some truly dreadful defenses where Sanchez chalked up obscene numbers, though he did effectively light up two good defenses in Penn State and Ohio State as well. Has almost zero experience playing in close games or rallying from behind in both HS and college, and did not fare well the one time he did (Oregon State). Has a steep learning curve in terms of facing equitable talent on the other team. Has a habit of putting too much air under deep balls and making his receivers work for the big play. A little inconsistent with his accuracy--will have strings of bad throws and then snap out of it. Most of his INTs were throws behind and short of his receiver, which indicates he needs to throw the ball at top velocity at all times.
NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers sans the lengthy experience, though Sanchez is much more agile. Matt Hasselbeck with a higher ceiling.
Forecast: Will go in the first round. How high depends on how negatively teams view his lack of experience and the relative disappointment of prior Trojan QBs, which is not insignificant. Could be the #1 overall pick, or he could slide a la Brady Quinn or Aaron Rodgers, another QB he resembles.
2. Matthew Stafford, Georgia. 6’3”, 235 pound junior who has started since his freshman year
Positives: Classic pocket passer with all the fixings--big arm, strong legs, good field vision. Experienced starter despite only being a true junior, playing in a pro-style offense in the top defensive conference in the nation. Has decent mobility, moves in the pocket well to buy time and feels the rush well. Can really rifle the ball into tight spaces if needed. Natural leader who took charge right away and wasn’t afraid to say what needed to be said. Very consistent mechanics, with a strong high release point and follow-through. Not easy to bring down, very physically strong lower body. Has shown very good downfield accuracy. Does a good job leading receivers and putting them in good position to run after the catch. Those close to him gush about his recent maturation, how he has handled adversity and grown into a better leader and human being.
Negatives: Georgia has underachieved with Stafford at the helm, going from preseason #1 in some polls to a lesser bowl. Does not have a great TD/INT ratio. Tends to not see the open man fast enough and has to make harder throws. Will overthrow some balls, especially intermediate sideline routes. Trusts his arm a little too much, resulting in bad INTs. Appears to get rattled when the pass rush is persistent. Needs to work on checking down more efficiently, holds out hope for downfield patterns when shorter routes are wide open and would get the job done, though that appears to be a function of coaching.
NFL Comparison: He physically resembles John Elway, but he’s not as athletic or strong-armed. His college career resembles Matt Ryan’s, and their negatives eerily similar. I see some Jay Cutler in him too.
Forecast: Surefire top 5 pick, perhaps the #1 overall pick. Has franchise QB potential and could feasibly start right away, though he could really benefit developmentally from another year at Georgia.
3. Nate Davis, Ball State. 6’2”, 217 pound junior
Positives: Tough, confident fireballer who was the leader of a major resurgence at a traditionally weak football program. Very strong arm--can throw the ball 60+ yards with zip, and he trusts it. Has the ability and confidence to rifle the ball anywhere on the field and put it where the receiver has the best play on it. Has good mobility and very good agility while scrambling and running with the ball, but he also has a very good sense of when to tuck and run versus when to keep the downfield pass plays alive. Effective when executing designed QB runs, can break tackles and absorb contact. Strong, emotional leader who commands with both words and actions. Good accuracy on intermediate and deeper throws. Exceptional command and efficiency in the red zone.
Negatives: Showed alarming ball security issues in their last two games, both with fumbles and INTs. Lacks ideal height but also doesn’t play “tall” either--relies on his OL to open up throwing lanes and lines of vision. Faced some thinly talented defenses, and did not fare as well when up against better ones. Has too much faith in his arm at times, will try to force throws into tight spots. Needs to work on touch on shorter throws, especially those across the middle of the field. Inconsistent footwork on delivery, relies too often on his arm and shoulder esp. on shorter throws. Throws the ball with a low trajectory on deep throws. Doesn’t always keep his emotions in check.
NFL Comparison: A shorter Ben Roethlisberger crossed with the persona of Jeff Garcia.
Forecast: Davis’ stock really took a hit with his subpar performances against Buffalo and Tulsa, but the throngs of NFL scouts that saw him play against MAC heavyweights Central and Western Michigan saw a QB as talented as any to play in that league. He is ideally suited for a team that needs an eventual replacement QB and not an immediate starter, which likely pegs him into the middle of the 2nd round.
4. Josh Freeman, Kansas State. 6’6”, 248 pound junior
Positives: Physically imposing pocket presence with the arm to match. Very good touch on his throws. Has very long range with his arm. Very physically strong and tough, can take a licking and keep on ticking. Feels pressure well, anticipates the rush nicely most of the time. Strong runner who is a legit threat with his legs. Did not have anywhere near the talented supporting casts of the other Big 12 QBs and still put up pretty solid completion percentages and TD/INT ratio (better if his runs are factored in). Has some experience in pro-style sets.
Negatives: Inconsistent performances, even from half to half, dogged his college career. Often babies the ball instead of firing it in. Accuracy is not pinpoint; will make his receivers work more than other QBs to make catches and turn into runners. Played in a conference where pass defense often consisted of allowing the other team to score quicker to get the ball back to their own offense, so the numbers are artificially inflated. Doesn’t always see underneath coverage. Delivery can be mechanical and slower than desired. Will lock onto his primary receiver and try to force it in. Needs to improve looking off safeties and diagnosing coverages. Often delivers the ball a count late. Appears to take failure very hard.
NFL Comparison: His ceiling is somewhere between JaMarcus Russell and David Garrard in 2008, the floor is 2008 draft flop Andre Woodson. Has the physical tools that teams covet but the toolbox isn’t real organized. If he clicks with stronger coaching and the NFL culture he could be David Garrard in 2007 and a real steal.
Forecast: If he interviews well and throws well in workouts, he could intrigue certain teams enough to warrant mid-1st round status. If he doesn’t answer the questions, he probably falls to the top of the 3rd round and that could prove three rounds too high.
5. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State. 6’2”, 224 pound transfer from Oklahoma
Positives: Good size with nice weight-room body. Very athletic, which he proved at the Senior Bowl by running fluidly on a surgically repaired knee, as he did the entire 2008 season. Strong pocket awareness and fluidity, feels the rush and has a plan of escape. Very compact, quick release, and he doesn’t waste a lot of motion or energy in his delivery or movement. Great snap on his throws, really guns the ball on deep outside routes. Throws with accuracy and zip on the move to either side; throws while running to his left better than most pros. Has answered the questions regarding his forced departure from Oklahoma with maturity and professionalism. Dominated like he should at the FCS level. Very confident in himself and not afraid to lead. Asked a lot of smart questions at the Senior Bowl workouts, which impressed coaches.
Negatives: Comes from one of the lesser FCS conferences and has not faced live action against any future NFL players since his freshman year at Oklahoma or the Senior Bowl (though he did fare well against Kansas in 2008). Not real tall, which is more of a problem because he throws a very flat, low-trajectory ball. Very strong habit of staring down his receiver, and when he doesn’t he often delivers the ball late or off the mark. Has built sort of a bubble of bravado around himself, no doubt in part to protect against all the Sooner questions. He left Oklahoma as part of a work-fraud booster scandal which was exacerbated by issues with the basketball coach cheating as well. His apprehension and solitary nature are perfectly understandable but need to be smoothed down. Some find his self-confidence off-putting. Does have the nasty knee injury, though he is clearly 100% recovered.
NFL Comparison: Stylistically, Jay Cutler mixed with Derek Anderson. He’s not as big as either guy. Has some Jeff Garcia in him. One scout in Mobile called him a “bigger, faster Rex Grossman”.
Forecast: 2nd-3rd round depending on Combine.
6. Pat White, West Virginia. 6’0” on his toes, 190 pound lefty
Positives: A genuinely good human being and charismatic leader and winner. Known best for running the shotgun spread option but has a stronger arm and better patience in the pocket than most from that system. Can zip throws to his left and throws very well on the move. Exceptional mobility with very good speed and agility. Very good, confident scrambler/runner. Looked surprisingly comfortable in pro sets during Senior Bowl workouts and had the best deep-ball accuracy of any QB there. Fierce competitor and knows how to rally the troops around him. Bright with a good football IQ. Has some receiving skills.
Negatives: Comes from a shotgun spread option system and has almost zero experience taking snaps from center. Short and somewhat thinly built. Accuracy is good at times, but generally is not NFL-ready. Has very poor accuracy throwing to his right, based on poor mechanics in throwing across his body. Will float balls. Uses a variety of arm angles and release points for no apparent reason. Takes a lot of big hits when running, has to learn to protect himself if he wants any sort of longevity.
NFL Comparison: More of a QB than other shotgun/spread athletes (Brad Smith, Josh Cribbs), White most readily compares to Seneca Wallace, though White has better intangibles and a stronger arm.
Forecast: An ideal fit for the Wildcat wing package, White probably lacks enough height and accuracy to ever be a fulltime starting QB but brings enough value as a backup and formational, situational player to merit a late 3rd round or top of the 4th round pick.
7. Stephen McGee, Texas A&M. 6’3”, 227 pounds
Summary: McGee struggled as a misfit in the TAMU offense and with a nagging shoulder injury, but his performance at the East-West Shrine week really boosted his stock. Showed consistently good arm strength, good footwork, and much better accuracy than expected. Mobile athlete with the ability to tuck and run, and looks visibly faster than every other QB except White. Impressed scouts and coaches with his solid fundamentals and pocket throwing ability. His college career was marred by poor decisions and issues with accuracy and ball security, so there are big questions about his ability to make the jump. A rough comparison would be Jon Kitna.
With a good showing in Indy and team workouts, could elevate himself into the 4th round and be a popular draftnik sleeper. If he fails to wow, then he fits in the 6th round for a team hoping for the next Marc Bulger, though with much better speed and elusiveness.
Others who might hear their names called
Tom Brandstater, Fresno State: Big, well-coached pocket passer with decent accuracy and mechanics; lacks the big arm expected for his size and forces too many throws; not real athletic and doesn’t feel the rush well. Struggled in Shrine Game workouts with accuracy and making the correct reads. Compares to Dan Orlovsky without the deep ball arm. 5th-6th rounder with some upside.
Nate Brown, Central Arkansas: Athletic gunslinger with real zip on his throws; has good feet and field vision; undersized and raw mechanically; had major issues with short- and intermediate accuracy at the Senior Bowl workouts, wasn’t even close on many throws. Small school kid with potential in the Tyler Thigpen mode, probably needs at least two years of intense development before he ever should see the field. Has the athleticism and moxie that will draw interest in the 6th-7th rounds.
Hunter Cantwell, Louisville: Classic pocket passer with a big arm who can make all the throws; very immobile and does not handle the rush well; accuracy comes and goes; forces some terrible INTs. Some team will see his Derek Anderson-like makeup and hope for the best in the 7th round.
Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State: Real big with the arm to match; freakishly pinpoint accuracy (over 70% for his career) who distributes the ball all over the field; comes from a one-read offense, and when his primary read was taken away he struggled with INTs and too-quick checkdowns. Lacks athleticism and doesn’t impress when pressured. Hal Mumme QBs have long failed to do anything in the NFL but disappoint, and Holbrook isn’t as polished as some prior editions. Could get called in the late 7th but more likely a UDFA camp invitee.
John Parker Wilson, Alabama: Is generally viewed as more of a game manager and a product of a great OL than a playmaking thrower. Has very good short and intermediate accuracy and puts the ball where his receivers can easily make the catch and transition to running the ball. Has some mobility and plays big for his average size. Good leader. Really lacks arm strength and zip on his throws. Throws an alarming amount of ducks. Could be one of those guys who blossoms when challenged by NFL demands, or wilt and not make a second training camp. Those type of players generally go in the compensatory picks at the end of the 6th round.
Graham Harrell, Texas Tech: Undersized, under-athletic shotgun spread QB. Freakishly accurate on throws to about 15 yards all over the field. Comes from a one-read offense where he almost never held the ball longer than three seconds or faced any heavy pressure. By his own account has taken just 10 snaps from center his entire life, and it showed at the Senior Bowl, where he botched many C/QB exchanges and also has problems turning and handing the ball off to the RB. Very inadequate arm; his deep balls float and flutter. His prolific college career and very good short-range accuracy and touch will get him drafted in the 6th/7th round, but he’s not as impressive as Colt Brennan was last season coming from the same situation. Would make a better fit in the AFL if it ever comes back, could be quite good in that format.
Cullen Harper, Clemson: I’ll quote an NFL Director of Collegiate Scouting when talking about Harper at the Senior Bowl--“This kid goes out and absolutely stinks. He can’t throw to anyone unless they are wide open. He gets his coach fired and is way too happy about it. Then the new coach benches him and the freshman they put in blows him away. He’s the worst thrower here (in Mobile) and he’s got all that baggage. No thanks.”
I know you all love small-college sleepers, and I’ll give you two: Mike Reilly of Central Washington and Jacari Atkinson of Tuskegee. I’d like to offer some details, but I’ve never seen game tape of either guy and I’m not going to lie about it like some sites!
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
