| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 23rd April, 2009 - 5:43 pm
 It's time for the fourth annual forecast of draft prospects who will pleasantly surprise, or bitterly disappoint the teams than draft them.
The record thus far on the "boom" side is quite good: Eddie Royal and Jason Jones from last season, Joe Staley and David Harris in 2007, and Demeco Ryans, Marcus McNeill, Nick Mangold, and Davin Joseph back in 2006.
I've missed on a few -- Brian Leonard, Aundrae Allison, Mike Hart -- but the overall forecast has proven quite sunny. Keep an eye on another boom pick from last year, Notre Dame center John Sullivan, as the Vikings like him enough to let stalwart Matt Birk depart.
On the flip side, the "bust' picks have been very boom or bust themselves. While it's still too early to judge last year's class, it sure looks like I missed the boat on Jeff Otah (though the Eagles parlayed him into Jason Peters, a vastly superior talent). And my harsh critique of Jon Beason the year before appears asinine, though one forecast that looked that way from the year before, Kam Wimbley, looks more correct all the time.
The jury is still out on a few -- JaMarcus Russell, Ray Rice -- but the NFL futures of most bust forecasts (Sidney Rice, Mario Manningham, Chris Houston) are at least partly cloudy with a chance of precipitous gloom. I'd like to thank Vernon Davis, Jimmy Williams the Hokie, Jarvis Moss, and Alex Smith for making me look prescient when I forecast bustdom, especially Davis, as I was about the only person who saw the bust coming.
I have a couple of ground rules for these picks. My "boom" picks must not be likely top 15 picks, and my "bust" picks must include at least two surefire first round picks.
Helium Balloons:
Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
I've talked to several scouts and a few other talent evaluators about Smith, who I have been high on for some time. Everyone says some variation of the following: If he were 3 inches taller; he'd be the best corner in this draft. That means the man can flat-out play. His size is a legit concern, but consider the recent trend of tall wideouts flaming out quickly and the increased offensive emphasis on precision and speed. Smith is better equipped to handle those than any other CB, and he highpoints the ball very well to help mitigate his lack of stature.
Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona
I'm admittedly late to the party on Thomas, a near physical clone of Rams WR Donnie Avery, the first WR taken last year. Thomas is lightning quick and consistently gets big-time separation despite not being real physical or big, and he knows what to do once he gets the ball in his hands. During Senior Bowl week he showed more toughness and better initial burst than I thought he had, and I've heard the same story from those who have seen him work out. His experience catching balls from an erratic, scrambling-type QB is a positive.
Blake Schlueter, C, TCU
He's not for every team, but if you're looking for toughness and agility in your center, Schlueter is your man. I laugh at some of the scouting reports that say he lacks base strength; anyone who can squat almost 900 pounds has enough lower body strength. He's not a big guy (weight is 288), but he compensates with ferocity and great technique. He's a stronger version of Dominic Raiola, an underappreciated Lion for the past few years.
Andre Brown, RB, NC State
This one carries a giant caveat, as Brown has struggled to stay on the field. But when healthy, Brown completely changed the Wolfpack offense. A bruising between-the-tackles power back with surprising acceleration, what really makes Brown special is his ability to catch the ball. He's a Jamal Lewis-style interior runner with the hands and receiving aptitude of a scatback. He proved during Senior Bowl week he is very good in picking up the blitz as well -- ask Brian Cushing and his butt.
Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M
He comes from an offense where he rarely did anything required of an NFL QB, but McGee has all the physical tools teams want in a signal caller. He showed during postseason bowls and workouts he has the accuracy and delivery that are worth developing. One beat writer told me his team actually prefers McGee long-term to Josh Freeman. It won't happen in 2009, but McGee could be the next Matt Hasselbeck or Matt Cassel, a developmental project that pays off in 3-4 years.
Lead Balloons:
Aaron Maybin, LB, Penn State
Maybin played defensive end in college at 226 pounds, using his superior quickness and speed to run real fast around the outside shoulder of the plodding behemoth Big Ten tackle across the line. On every single snap, no matter if it was a pass or a run. The Rose Bowl provided a very clear forecast of Maybin's NFL future: he made an eye-popping sack where he exploded around the edge and planted Mark Sanchez early in the game, but he was offside by a half-count. He spent the rest of the game either on his butt or six yards upfield and completely out of the play. Oh, and he didn't start because he was late for a team meeting. He gained 30 pounds in about six weeks in a Phyrric quest to bulk up, only it completely robbed him of the one thing he had going for him: speed. He'll play 3-4 OLB in the NFL at around 235 pounds and with almost zero ability to do anything but rush the passer from outside the tight end. He might grow into it down the line, but this one-year one-trick pony is bound to disappoint for the first couple of seasons, considering he'll almost certainly go in the top 20.
Brian Cushing, LB, USC
I happen to like Cushing to some extent, but the warning signs are as ominous as the pale green sky before a tornado. Cushing has suffered several injuries already, soft tissue injuries that are harbingers of further problems. For all his athleticism and musculature, he made surprisingly few plays in college. Some of that is a function of an outstanding supporting cast, but Cushing often showed up "late in the tape" as one scout told me. He looked stiff and overly reliant on upper body strength at the Senior Bowl. Of all the highly-talented USC defensive products in this draft, Cushing is the most likely to disappoint. Frequent readers will note I'm no fan of Rey Maualuga either.
Max Unger, C/G, Oregon
Where some see a jack of all trades, I see a master of none. Unger has all the trappings of a good utility sixth lineman, a role normally filled by a sixth round draft pick. Despite his miserable Senior Bowl week and obvious lack of anchor strength and leg drive, Unger appears to be a second round pick.
Percy Harvin, WR/ATH, Florida
The more people inside the NFL I talk with, the less I like Harvin. A picture of versatility and blazing speed in college, I share the worries that Harvin lacks the route running prowess, the mental toughness, and the physical stature to handle the NFL. He's already missed lots of time with various injuries, a common problem for weight-room warriors with small natural frames, and his past is littered with recurring bouts of immaturity. I can see him being a unique weapon in the NFL, but that would require a creative coach and Harvin accepting a non-traditional role, neither of which ever happens enough in the NFL. Oh yeah, he failed his drug test at the Combine, which means he's either a drug addict or an idiot. Neither of those are desirable traits to NFL teams.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
There are times when DHB looked a whole lot like Braylon Edwards circa 2007, a legit #1 wideout with great size, athleticism, and knack for making big plays. But more often, he looked like the Braylon Edwards that bitterly disappointed Browns fans the rest of his career, struggling with drops, lazy routes, and missing all the little things that make a successful receiver. One draft publication compared him to Javon Walker, another tremendous athlete who has tantalized with glimpses of greatness in between long bouts of drawing the ire of fans, coaches, and teammates.
--Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer and draft expert. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
