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$.10 For Week 9
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th November, 2009 - 10:58 am
Instead of analyzing the common storylines of Super Bowl XLIV, let’s use the music of The Who, who (pun intended) will be performing at halftime this year.
There’s a difference between a favorite and a lock. When up against a team with playoff-level talent, it’s rare that the team with the better record ever appears in the second category.
Braylon Edwards will join Jericho Cotchery to form an elite wideout tandem, at least on paper.
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$.01--Congrats to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for notching their first win of the season. In upsetting the Green Bay Packers, the Bucs proved that they used their bye week wisely. Rookie QB Josh Freeman looked good in his first start, avoiding pressure well and making strong throws when he had to. The Tampa special teams came up big as well. It’s a great day for the Bucs, who honored team legend Lee Roy Selmon both at a halftime ceremony and on the field by terrorizing the opposing QB just as he used to in those sweet light orange unis.
The bigger point of this game is the amazingly inept offensive line play of the Packers. Green Bay is flat-out loaded at the skill positions, but all that skill is completely negated by one of the worst offensive lines I’ve ever seen in my 30+ years of watching football. It’s not just lack of talent that hinders the group either; it’s a poorly coached unit that doesn’t recognize defensive schemes and doesn’t play as a unit whatsoever. Aaron Rodgers had little time to throw against a defense that ranked near the bottom in sacks and had registered an official QB hurry on just 9 of the last 79 dropbacks against them. For all the frustration the Cheeseheads have over GM Ted Thompson’s handling of the Favre situation, they really should be much more upset with the long-standing inattention to improving an obvious weakness.
$.02--It was just as bad a day for Green Bay’s NFC North brethren. The Lions blew an early 17-0 lead in Seattle and fell to 1-7 with the mistake-filled loss. That was expected by most, as the Lions are still a lousy team filled with young players and other teams’ castoffs.
The stunner was the performance of the Chicago Bears, who got bombarded at Soldier Field by the Cardinals. Once again the Bears defense was shredded to pieces, much as Carson Palmer and the Bengals did two weeks ago. What should be real scary for Bears fans is how easily the Cardinals ran the ball. The team that ranked 31st in rushing efficiency and dead last in every other rushing metric gashed the Bears for 182 yards on 31 carries, roughly as much as they produce in three games on average. Much of that came when the Cards were obviously going to run the ball. The Chicago defense got manhandled by a pedestrian OL, while their own pedestrian OL routinely gets pushed around.
This is the worst nightmare for most Bears fans, who have clamored for a franchise QB since the Eisenhower administration. They finally go out and get Jay Cutler, and the rest of the team goes rotten. Perhaps most discouraging is that help is not on the way, as Chicago has already dealt away their first and second round draft picks next year.
$.03--Another team quickly drowning under a combination of lofty expectations and inadequate talent to pull it off is the New York Giants. Losers of four straight games, the G-Men hit their bye week with loads of questions. Much has been made of the injury issues in the secondary, but if I’m Tom Coughlin, I’m focusing on the steep decline in play of the big men up front on both sides of the ball. This team has soared in recent years in no small measure because they physically dominated the line of scrimmage, both offensively and defensively. The D-Line still produces in spurts and has enough depth that Coordinator Bill Sheridan should be able to piece together an effective mix. It’s the puzzling downturn by the offensive line that does not bode well for New York.
Most noticeable is the inability of the formerly terrific G-C-G package to open any holes in the running game. Brandon Jacobs is a freakish talent, but in order to take advantage of his size and power, he must be given room to get rolling downhill. Teams have figured out how to beat the interior line blocking and not let Jacobs get going. The pass protection has not been much better, though some of that falls on Eli Manning for still not developing a better sense of the rush. It’s not hopeless for the Giants, but the upcoming schedule sure makes a climb back into the playoff rotation seem a long shot: ATL, @DEN, DAL, PHI, @WAS, CAR, and @MIN. Only division rival Washington and the Panthers are below .500, and losses to any of the teams they are chasing mean tiebreaker advantages are gone.
$.04-- For a study in how to handle adversity, compare the performances of Tye Hill and Deangelo Hall in the Falcons/Redskins game. Both CBs are former 1st round picks that had ugly ends with their first teams, Hall kicking and screaming his way out of Atlanta and Hill sleepwalking off the Rams. Hall tried to incite an in-game riot against his despised former team, going so far as to threaten legal action for being insulted during a sideline brouhaha (which he instigated). He let his loud discontent impact his play, struggling several times in coverage and missing an easy tackle. To be fair, Hall did make a nice tackle and had his moments in coverage, though certainly not enough to merit most of the post-game discussion.
Hill had a much better day, albeit in very limited playing time. The extra defensive back reeled in a tipped ball and turned on the jets, racing 62 yards for a touchdown that essentially buried the Redskins in the 1st quarter. After he scored he didn’t taunt, didn’t excessively celebrate, and didn’t play a whole lot. For Hall, that would have resulted in histrionics and trade demands. Hill showed maturity and a team-first attitude, quietly (but happily) taking congrats on the sidelines and staying actively alert in sideline coaching talks and special teams. There’s a reason why some organizations win and some lose, and that was reflected in the play and demeanor of the two corners. Atlanta parted with the talented-but-troublesome Hall, knowing players of his ilk are rarely part of the solution. Washington collects those types of players like Craig Sager hoards bad suits, and paid him a huge contract even though Hall quit on the Raiders too.
By contrast, Atlanta parted with just an extra wide receiver (Laurent Robinson, who was a revelation for the Rams before getting hurt) and has forced Hill to earn his minutes, showing him no entitlement. Hill has not been great, but he’s quietly improving and earning the trust of his coaches and teammates. The stylistic dichotomy of the two organizations and how they handle players is why the Falcons are going to be good for a long time and the Redskins will not.
$.05--Highlight of the Week goes to Randy Moss for his one-handed snare that set up an early touchdown, part of yet another masterful performance by the future Hall of Fame receiver. Moss reached out and snagged a perfectly thrown sideline pass 30 yards downfield despite excellent coverage from Dolphins rookie Vontae Davis. Moss also had a long touchdown catch and run where he threw a stiff-arm that would make Jim Brown proud. He might be aging and on the downside, but Randy Moss is still one of the very best players in a league full of great ones. His stellar play helped the Patriots seize a commanding divisional lead and defeat a very game, very well-coached Miami team.
Honorable mention to Miles Austin for making his one catch really count in the Cowboys win over the Eagles. That is a huge road win that completely shakes up everyone’s conception of the NFC East power struggle.
$.06--5 random quickies:
1. For as much as so many pundits love to heap praise upon him, Joe Flacco still has an awfully long way to progress. For the second time this year the Bengals completely befuddled Flacco, and his touch on shorter passes leaves a lot to be desired.
2. Don’t look now, but Arizona has a two game lead in the NFC West over the 49ers...and the Seahawks, who are getting healthier on offense and starting to gel along the lines. If Seattle can steal next week’s game in Arizona, don’t bet against them to win the division; their finishing schedule features winnable games almost every week. Of course, it’s almost the exact same schedule as the Cardinals’...
3. Two very good rookies on two very bad teams: LB DeAndre Levy in Detroit and LB Brian Orakpo in Washington. Both of these youngsters are going to be impact starters for a long time.
4. Most underappreciated unit of the season thus far: The Cincinnati offensive line. Kyle Cook has been a revelation at center, Andrew Whitworth is acquitting himself quite well at LT and providing tremendous leadership, and huge Dennis Roland has been rock solid on the right side. They are the reason why Ced Benson is racking up yards and Carson Palmer’s pants are never dirty.
5. Michael Vick has become the poster boy for “much ado about nothing”, a fitting climax to his impossibly overhyped summer saga. It’s probably for the best for Vick, who should be playing (more) somewhere else next season.
$.07--I had the week off from volleyball leagues, so I seized the opportunity to watch some UFL action. That’s right, the United Football League. Yes, it’s real football being played by mostly recognizable names and coaches. I was thoroughly impressed with the level of play, the professionalism, the intensity, and the seriousness. For years I have been clamoring for a developmental league above the collegiate level, and the UFL is precisely what I’ve desired. I don’t think that’s their ultimate goal, but it’s a better fate than the USFL or Arena League. I strongly encourage football fans to seek out the Versus Network (you know, where you watch hockey and Lance Armstrong) on Wed. nights and support this league. You’ll have a whole lot of “Oh yeah, I know that guy” and “he belongs in the NFL” moments while watching some good football, if you can get past the cheesy uniforms and second-rate announcing team.
$.08: Non-football thought of the week--I finally broke down and joined the modern era by upgrading my cell phone from a 7-year old flipper to the new Motorola Droid. I’m not the most tech-savvy guy and I’ve long held the notion that phones were just for talking. You can imagine my culture shock when I started exploring what all this thing can do: surf the web, get me directions, find me local Thai restaurants just by saying “pad po-tak”, shoot video, customize different Metallica songs as ringtones, send video and picture emails, use it as a pedometer or a bar code scanner or an MP3 player, pretty much anything your home PC does--only faster (and smaller). There’s even an app that can remote start your car!
I’ve entered a whole new world, one that I’m not sure is entirely necessary. But it’s definitely cooler and easier. One major drawback: I’m a big man (6’5”, 200) and my fingers are not long and skinny, making typing on the qwerty keypad an exercise in patience and backspacing. I’m likely to use about 10% of the potential while paying for 100%, which eerily reminds me of college, not to mention the New York Knicks. I feel somewhat trapped into using features I really don’t need and getting into techie conversations with people I really don’t care to talk to. Buyer’s remorse on a largely superfluous gadget? Maybe a little...but at least I look cool playing with it. And as I like to say on the beach volleyball court, it’s not whether you win or lose, it’s how good you look playing the game!
$.09--5 college quick hits:
1. Ohio State continues to befuddle me. After dropping a yawner at home to lowly Purdue, the Buckeyes travel into Happy Valley and thoroughly dominate the higher-rated Nittany Lions. Terrelle Pryor goes from looking a few beats behind to the next Donovan McNabb, the defense looked like they were playing 12 on 10, and the Sweater Vest opened it up a little. Ohio State now controls its own BCS fate, perhaps setting up a Battle of Ohio with the Cincinnati Bearcats.
2. For all the talk about how awful the Big Ten is this year, have a look at the Big 12. Take out Texas, which will deservedly play for the national title, and only Oklahoma State would have a winning record in any other BCS conference. Colorado is currently 3-6 and got pasted by Toledo, yet if they win out (and they just might) the Buffalos have a very good chance of winning the North division. And for the SEC snobs, have a look at the East division of your conference, which could very well wind up with Florida as the only team with more than 6 wins. It’s not just the Big Ten that stinks this year.
3. There is a good chance that there won’t be enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the bowl slots. With 34 bowls, that means 68 teams must finish with 6 wins. Right now 46 teams qualify, and three others are guaranteed based on schedule (some 5-win teams play one another). Even if enough do wind up qualifying, it does not look good for bowl season. Just what I want to do for the holidays, watching two 6-6 disappointments play in front of hundreds of fans.
4. For both TCU and Boise State to both make the BCS bowl bonanza, the following has to happen: one of Alabama/Florida must lose twice, USC must win the Pac-10, and Ohio State must run the table. Something tells me none of the above will happen.
5. Taking the scouting hat off for a moment: the sight of Cal RB Jahvid Best slamming into the ground from about eight feet up, losing his helmet and looking catatonic scared the tar out of me. It occurred to me that plays like that probably happen somewhere just about every week and we never see them or hear about them. Best is likely to still play in the NFL and make a nice living, but what about the kid playing at a D-III school whose life gets turned upside down because the medical attention isn’t as prompt and he doesn’t have a lucrative insurance policy to help pay for the recovery?
Positives: Experienced starter (despite being a junior) at a major program running a pro-style offense under a former NFL offensive coordinator. Quick release with excellent fundamental mechanics. Decent size, plays taller than he looks off the field. Good footwork. Has some zip on deeper throws but is better noted for his nice touch. Throws a catchable ball. Accuracy has markedly improved in 2009; it was a weakness headed into the season but his precision and timing of hitting receivers in stride is phenomenally improved. Stays with deeper routes nicely, almost doggedly (think Dan Marino). Very good field vision. Has learned a complex passing system and can make all the throws. Tough kid who took a beating early in his career. Can move around and buy time, has improved his feel for the rush. Has matured nicely into a team leader and respected presence. Comes from a family of QBs and appears to have learned from his brothers in terms of how to handle pressure and adversity.
Negatives: Any time a player makes a quantum leap in accuracy so quickly, its legitimacy must be questioned. Needs to work through his progressions quicker, though this has improved as well. Arrived at Notre Dame as an obnoxious “golden boy” and was not liked or respected by his teammates, and though he has made tremendous progress in that regard he’s still cocky and carries himself with a sense of entitlement. Is prone to occasional “what was he thinking” moments (the INT and personal foul in the Navy game as an example). Will telegraph some balls, esp. shorter routes. Has absorbed a great deal of contact and his frame isn’t great, raising durability questions. Needs to improve on red zone fade throws.
NFL Comparison: Tony Romo sans the great mobility, but he reminds me a great deal of Jim Everett.
Forecast: His remarkable progress in his junior season has really opened eyes, and his arm strength and downfield precision are top-notch. How he handles himself in interviews and workouts (if he declares, far from a given) will determine if he’s a top 10 pick or a late 1st/early 2nd rounder.
Have an NFL draft question? Send it to me and I’ll include it in an upcoming draft piece.
