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Super Bowl XLIV Forecast
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 4th February, 2010 - 3:57 pm
Peyton Manning's playoff resume has been greatly debated. Here is how his numbers compare to the regular season, along with Tom Brady and more than two dozen other all-time greats.
There’s a difference between a favorite and a lock. When up against a team with playoff-level talent, it’s rare that the team with the better record ever appears in the second category.
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Groundhog Day came and went, and this year Phil and most of his rip-offs saw their shadows, meaning six more weeks of winter. It will be a long, cold winter after football season ends this Sunday. That’s just one reason to cherish this game, which shapes up to be another classic like the past two Super Bowls.
Both Indianapolis and New Orleans have electrifying pass offenses that are capable of putting up lots of points quickly, and from anywhere on the field. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are both confident, accurate, unflappable leaders that can spray the ball all over the gridiron to a bevy of receiving talents. That means no lead is safe, which could provide another fantastic frenzied finish.
I’ll cut right to the chase: I like the Saints to win. Would it surprise me if the Colts won--absolutely not! In fact I would argue they are probably the better team, and their Super Bowl experience is a very relevant factor in the game. So why New Orleans?
The biggest reason for me is the ability to run the ball. Indy simply cannot grind out yards on the ground, but rather they use the run only to set up more passes and throw the occasional bone to the big guys up front, who would run the ball on every snap if given the choice.
On the other hand, the Saints feature a backfield of versatile, functional weapons. Need to convert a 3rd & 3? Mike Bell can get that for you between the tackles. Decide to run a power G on first down to set up 2nd and short? Pierre Thomas and his 5.1 yards per carry fit the bill nicely. Want to run a toss or a cutback, or a sprint draw? Reggie Bush is the man, and he’s running with more power and confidence than ever.
The Colts have a couple of talented RBs in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, but their OL isn’t as physical (especially at tackle) and the running schemes are more predictable. Keeping the opposing defense off-balance and the pass rush honest is huge, and the Saints do that much better than the Colts.
I also like the opportunism of the Saints defense. New Orleans forced 39 takeaways in the regular season (2nd in the league) and they’ve tacked on seven more in their two playoff games. True, they haven’t played Peyton Manning yet, but Kurt Warner and Brett Favre both had MVP-like seasons and loads of playoff experience and the Saints made them look careless. A healthy Sedrick Ellis has had a lot to do with that. The Saints DT gets a strong inside pass rush, throwing off timing and clogging up the primary safety valve passing lane. He should dominate greenhorn RG Kyle DeVan, the weak link of the Colts line. That sort of up-the-gut pressure throws off Manning more than anything else does, and even if it only happens a few times, that might be all the Saints need.
Then there’s the “destiny” angle. Yes, I do believe in that sort of thing, and no team holds the reigns of destiny tighter than the Saints. They’re quite comfortable with it too, which comes through in interviews, in practices, and in the playoffs so far. Unwavering belief in a shared destiny is a powerful force, and these Saints absolutely have that. It’s a trivial and arbitrary reason, but there’s just something about how this group has represented their embattled, scarred home city.
It’s not going to be easy. The Colts are as professional and prepared as they come, and Peyton Manning was a deserving MVP this season for a reason. Even with Dwight Freeney at half speed, the Colts still have a defense that is capable of holding its own. But the problems they have had in coverage throughout the playoffs are legit, and Drew Brees can exploit those better than any QB that Indy has faced all year. New Orleans isn’t going to let off the gas even with a 10 or 14 point lead, and that will allow them to hold off the Colts’ potent comeback ability.
