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Football Meteorology For Week 5
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 6th October, 2006 - 10:35 am
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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As a youngster I harbored dreams of being a TV weatherman. I minored in geography at Ohio U., and my favorite classes were Dr. Isaac’s weather-related courses. One of the facets that drew me to meteorology is how every indicator can appear to project certain events, yet those events often don’t happen where or when you expect them, if at all. Picking football games is much the same; there’s some seemingly obvious lock picks, but as the cliché goes, “Any given Sunday…” Applying my B-student background, here’s my forecast for Week 5.
Mostly Sunny games
Pittsburgh at San Diego
We’ve been discussing on the message boards here at RealGM about the baffling phenomenon known as MartyBall. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer has reverted to calling plays with zero imagination, easily read and defensed, and not using his ample weapons. When you’ve got the best overall RB, the best overall TE, a great #2 RB, capable WRs and a pretty good line, you’ve got to unleash the hounds. Marty seems content to keep them on a very short leash, to let the tenacious D do their thing and try to win a battle of field position and kicking. It didn’t work against a game Ravens team last week, and it is the complete wrong approach to take on the struggling Steelers. Fortunately for Marty, the Steelers have been unable to pass the ball and their defense is best attacked by running right at them. This game should have the Chargers winning by about 14, but the combination of MartyBall and the determined focus of well-coached defending champion will result in this game coming down to a hard-fought 17-13 win for the Chargers.
New York Jets at Jacksonville
The banged up defensive front of the Jaguars goes against a Jets offense that suddenly figured out they can run the ball. The Jets proved in their close loss to the Colts they aren’t afraid to take chances and go down swinging, and their defense has the speed to contain the Jags’ quick-hit running game. Jacksonville can use their rather pronounced height advantage at WR, and when Byron Leftwich has time to set up, he can tear apart a secondary. Both teams are 2-2, but there’s a big difference: the Jags are unhappy about it; the Jets are feeling very good about it. I’ll take the angry team at home, the one with a veteran coach and an air of desperation. Jaguars 27, Jets 17.
Baltimore at Denver
There’s another team playing MartyBall, and it’s the Ravens. There’s a lot of irony in a creative offensive guru like Ravens coach Brian Billick using a pretty conservative attack despite having some decent (though not Charger-caliber) weapons, while coaching a team that Schottenheimer once helmed in another incarnation. The back seven/eight (they change formations based on offensive sets) of the Ravens D has been absolutely outstanding and puts loads of pressure on the opponent to execute with great precision. That’s never been Jake Plummer’s strong suit, and the Broncos are not getting consistent play from their WRs. That the game is in Denver on Monday night, the Broncos needing a win more than the Ravens, and the Ravens losing stud G Edwin Mulitalo right before facing a very aggressive, physical Broncos D, all point to a narrow Broncos win. I’ll waffle a bit on this one: if the Broncos take an early lead and their great LBs make immediate impact, Denver will win 24-10. If the Ravens jump out early and Jake Plummer loses the fickle fan support, the Ravens bury the Broncos 27-16.
Fair weather, mix of clouds and sun games:
Dallas at Philadelphia
Following my own advice from a recent column, I’m not talking TO, not even in the return to Philly. The Eagles could be missing their starting RB and both starting WRs, not to mention two of their top 3 CBs. Even if some of those guys play, they won’t be near 100%. The Cowboys defense would be a tough matchup even with everyone healthy, and the Dallas passing game has a guy better than TO to exploit a weakened secondary. His name is Terry Glenn, and he’s playing like he’s 25 again, and Drew Bledsoe knows where to find him. Dallas wins 30-13, a bit closer if the Philly fans are able to disrupt things.
Washington at New York Giants
The Redskins O-line is finally gelling, and Clinton Portis looks 100%. The Giants secondary has been dreadful, and their vaunted pass rush hasn’t lived up to expectation. There’s a lot of powder in the keg for the Giants, and they’ve got a lot of short fuses already smoldering. If they don’t start out well, the action on the New York sideline will rival the action on the field. I’d give the Giants more of a chance, but their best LB and defensive QB (Carlos Emmons) is out with injury, and their easily distracted-by-emotion LB (Lavar Arrington) is facing the team that benched him for not being disciplined enough last season. Somehow I don’t think all that emotion is going to help Lavar or the Giants. Redskins win 33-20 and essentially bury the Giants’ playoff aspirations.
Buffalo at Chicago
The Bears are clearly the best team thru 4 weeks. DT Tommie Harris has been the defensive MVP, QB Rex Grossman a leading offensive MVP candidate. The Bears defense has been dominating and near flawless. Buffalo’s D hasn’t been bad, either, and their young secondary has come together nicely. The Bears have had issues running the ball, and the Bills have enough speed and talent on defense to slow down a one-dimensional Bears attack. If the Bills had any semblance of a strong offensive line I’d pick them to trip up a very good but very overconfident Bears team. But they don’t, and we’ve all seen what the Bears did to Detroit and Green Bay and their crappy OLs. Buffalo is better than those teams, but not good enough to win unless the Bears let them. Chicago 16-13.
Mostly cloudy with a cool wind games
Kansas City at Arizona
Matt Leinart takes over at QB for the Cards, facing a defense that has been impenetrable on 3rd down. The Cardinal OL has been dreadful and the team is last in the league in turnovers. Despite that, I think this is a good matchup for Arizona. KC starts career backup Damon Huard, who shredded an inept 49ers secondary last week. The Cards have played pretty well defensively, and they can attack from all over the field. That’s trouble for a KC line decimated by retirement and injury. Still, I have a real hard time thinking Kansas City will be 1-3. The Chiefs eke out a 31-27 road win and get themselves back into the AFC West race.
Cleveland at Carolina
The Panthers are getting their good players healthy, while the Browns list 10 starters as questionable as of Thursday. I really like the moxie that Browns QB Charlie Frye has shown, and he’s developing a nice chemistry with WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. He’ll get a lot more time in chemistry class this week, because the Panthers should have a pretty sizable lead by halftime. Good week for fantasy owners of Panthers WR Steve Smith, as the Browns top 3 CBs might all be out. Carolina 34, Cleveland 15.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
This game belongs in the next category down, but I feel obliged to mention the Bucs are starting rookie 6th rounder QB Bruce Gradkowski. He was very impressive in preseason, and in college he became the all-time most accurate passer despite playing behind a shaky line. All the hype went to Vince Young, but Gradkowski was his equal in the 40 yard dash and his superior in the shuttle and agility drills. Had he gone to a power BCS school he might have gone as high as the 2nd round. In short, I think he’s got a real chance to be a quality NFL starter. The Saints are a tough matchup though, because of their much-improved LBs and CB play. The Saints also have a low-round rookie of their own that’s proven he can excel, WR Marques Colston. New Orleans 23-20, though this is one of those games where the upset winds could be blowing hard.
Rainy, Cold, and Blustery games
Miami at New England
Bill Belichick has wild dreams about unleashing his defense against an OL as inept at Miami’s. As wild of dreams as Bill Belichick can have, anyways. New England 30-6.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
The best team in the AFC at home against the worst team in the NFL. Yes, the Titans are worse than the Raiders. Colts backup QB Jim Sorgi gets lots of mopup time in a 40-16 romp.
St. Louis at Green Bay
The Rams aren’t sexy, but they’ve got some real good players at key positions (WR Holt, LB Witherspoon, DE Little, RB Jackson, SS Chavous). Green Bay has a shot because it’s at home and they do have two good WRs to attack the Rams’ iffy corners. Rams shock the world and move to 4-1 with a 24-20 win.
Detroit at Minnesota
The Lions brutal pass defense gets a bit of a breather with weak-armed Vikings QB Brad Johnson not a threat to beat them deep. Instead he’ll throw a bunch of 5 and 10 yard passes and let his receivers exploit the Lions horrible tackling. This could be an entertaining shootout, particularly if Detroit can score an early TD instead of fumbling inside their own 30 on their first drive like they always do. Vikings 33, Lions 27.
Oakland at San Francisco
Teams #31 and 30 in my power poll in a game you should be flogged for watching. I’ll take the Raiders to win 19-14 for one reason: last week they had a game won and flat-out quit, while last week the 49ers got blown away in every imaginable way. Sooner or later the Raiders will win one of these games where they have the much better team.
There’s the forecast. I’ll remind you what my favorite geography professor, the esteemed Dr. Isaac, always warned about forecasting the weather. Sometimes every computer model, fancy radar, and air chart tells you it’s bright and sunny. Stick your head outside, and it’s raining on you from one sole cloud in the sky. It just happens. So does the forecasting of NFL games.
