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Football Meteorology For Week 8
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 26th October, 2006 - 9:03 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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A cold Week 7 on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan, as I weathered a 7-7 record last week. Seven and seven, good to drink, not so good as a forecast. It was a week of some very key injuries, with Seattle losing their QB, Cleveland losing their top CB and now their offensive coordinator, the Giants losing Lavar Arrington, the Colts losing Mike Doss, the Bears confirming elite safety Mike Brown is out for the season, the Broncos losing their best OL, and the Chargers possibly losing All World LB Shawne Merriman to league suspension. What teams can weather the injury storm, and which ones succumb to the flood of injuries and failed expectations? Week 8 is a critical halfway point; we’ll know a lot more about the playoff picture after next Monday, and history tells us it won’t drastically change a great deal after next week.
Sunny, unseasonably warm games Indianapolis at Denver If you just look at the last two games each of these teams played, you’d wonder how in the world the Broncos could possibly be favored, even at home. The Colts limped to a gut-check win over Tennessee and then played as well as any team has played in any game this season in routing Washington last weekend. Denver played like they took too much sleepy-time cold medicine in very dull wins over very inferior Oakland and Cleveland. The Denver defense is on record pace, and they match up against the Colts better than any other defense, on paper anyways. With 3 legit cover CBs including one of the best, Champ Bailey, and loads of skill at S and LB, the Broncos have the tools to slow down the Peyton Manning show. The flip side is that the Indy defense is a new animal with Booger McFarland and Bob Sanders in the lineup, and that animal can attack a sputtering Denver offense that will be minus its best OL, Matt Lepsis. Lepsis excels at blocking in space, on screens and cutback draws, and that’s the best way to attack a defense that blitzes and stunts as much as Indy does. His replacement gets to deal with a frustrated Dwight Freeney, still looking for his first sack. Lepsis will be missed, and it’s enough to tip the scales to Indy. Team #2 in my power poll beats Team #5, and the Colts stay unbeaten with a 20-16 win.
St. Louis at San Diego A good barometer for just how good the Rams truly are this season. St. Louis has not played well on the road, and the Chargers are very focused after returning from a tough loss in KC. No team contains the passing game better than the Chargers, even though the injuries continue to test their defensive depth. They do keep Shawne Merriman for at least this week, and they’ll need him to supply pressure and to contain Stephen Jackson out of the backfield. The Chargers offense should have success attacking a spotty Rams coverage unit, which has struggled when facing teams that throw to their backs and TEs, which the Chargers do more than anyone. Neither team turns the ball over often, so it’s all about execution and top-end talent, and the Chargers have more of that than the Rams. San Diego 27, St. Louis 20.
Baltimore at New Orleans A very intriguing matchup of two teams that have seen much-improved play from teams below them in the standings, putting pressure on both to maintain their strong early-season play. Baltimore comes off the bye with an allegedly healthy Steve McNair at QB and Head Coach Brian Billick taking over the offensive playcalling duties. The Saints also come off a bye having their last 3 games decided by a FG, two of them wins. Saints QB Drew Brees threw passes to 11 different catchers in their last game, which means a Ravens pass defense that heavily relies on S Ed Reed to cover lots of CB shakiness will have to either play significantly better or alter their plan of attack. The biggest advantage in the matchups is in special teams, where the Saints excel once again, while the Ravens struggle once again. When teams are fairly evenly matched, as these are, field position and special teams discipline often make a huge difference. Still, it’s hard to pick against the Ravens at home, in a must-win statement game coming off a bye. Baltimore somehow manages a hard-fought 23-21 win.
Partly sunny, fall breeze games Dallas at Carolina Lost amidst all the Romo-Bledsoe-TO drop hullabaloo was the terrible play of the Cowboys secondary and linebackers in their Monday night game. I don’t recall ever having seen so many poor angles of pursuit or uncertain decision-making by a back end of a defense. It’s as if they are so overconfident in their blazing speed that they don’t play sound football. That’s another indication that Bill Parcells has lost his mojo with this team. Carolina doesn’t have the size at WR the Giants do, but they have better speed and the #1 WR in the game, Steve Smith. They also have two playmaking CBs and a decided advantage with their DL facing a Cowboys unit that badly struggles in pass protection. RB DeAngelo Williams is finally healthy, which gives the Panthers a 1-2 running punch, plus QB Jake Delhomme rarely has two bad games in a row and he stunk last week. Carolina stays swimming in the playoff mix, while the Cowboys flounder to 3-4 and in need of more help than Troy Aikman at QB could provide. Panthers 31, Cowboys 17.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia The Jaguars are ravaged by injuries and could be without as many as 6 Week One starters, as QB Byron Leftwich has been downgraded to questionable and was limping badly on Wed. Leftwich is already a pretty immobile guy, and nobody gets to the QB better than the Eagles defense. Philly is smarting from a 2-game losing roadtrip, with both losses on FGs as time expired in games they statistically dominated. The odds of that happening a third time, at home against a team headed in the wrong direction, are slim to none. The Jags stay winless on the road, where they consistently struggle even against weak teams, like the pounding the Texans laid on them last week. Philadelphia 27, Jacksonville 10.
Seattle at Kansas City A battle of the inverted backup QBs. The Chiefs start Damon Huard, a Washington native and UW grad; the Seahawks start Seneca Wallace, who played college ball in strong Chiefs country at Iowa State. Huard has done a good job managing the offense and not making mistakes, and the improving Chiefs defense catches a break in facing a Seattle team missing its star RB and QB and a WR corps that makes loads of mental mistakes. Stat geek alert: when KC plays at home against a team coming in off a home loss, they are 16-2 since 2000 (thanks SI.com!). Chiefs DE Jared Allen vs. Seahawks T Walter Jones is an excellent battle to watch. Wallace’s running ability and KC’s shaky tackling will keep it close, but the Chiefs prevail 31-22.
Atlanta at Cincinnati Flamboyant WR Chad Johnson spoke up this week, declaring himself “Ocho Cinco” and ready to pay celebratory fines. On some teams, a diva-esque WR with a mouth that doesn’t quit is a major problem. I’m of the opinion that it is precisely what the Bengals need: a fearless vocal leader with bravado and the talent to match. Carson Palmer is a great QB, Marvin Lewis a very good head coach, and their secondary makes more plays than most, but the one thing different from this year’s Bengals and last year’s edition was a definable image and figurehead. If Ocho Cinco is truly back, then so are the Bengals as contenders. Atlanta has some talented CBs of their own, but they are vulnerable to biting wrong and rely heavily on a pass rush that will be without stud DE Jon Abraham. The Falcons will lean on their exceptional running game and hope Michael Vick can piece together two good throwing games for the first time in his career. Cincy has the speed at LB and the discipline on the DL to limit Vick’s movement opportunities. Bengals 30, Falcons 24.
New England at Minnesota The Vikings lead the league in run defense, while the Patriots are 5th in rushing yards per game. Neither team throws the ball real effectively, and both teams feature secondaries that give up lots of completions and yardage but rarely concede TDs. In fact, when looking for an advantageous matchup for either side, I found these to be two of the most evenly matched, similar result teams. The only decided advantage is in punt and kick returns, where the Patriots are outstanding. Vikings QB Brad Johnson looked downfield more often the past couple of games, and he’ll need to loosen up some space against a New England D that loves to crowd up to the line. The Patriots are headed into the only real bumpy portion of their schedule, and they’ll no doubt want to lead off strong with a road win against a team that has struggled to cap off drives with TDs. The Patriots are #4 in my power poll, and they’ve got to be the quietest 5-1 I can recall. The Vikings execute very well and sit at #8 in my power poll, but Bill Belichick has a way of making opponents uncomfortable. I’ll take New England in a mild road upset, 17-15.
Mostly cloudy with a steady drizzle games Tampa Bay at New York Giants I’ll use this game not to dazzle you with analysis of the teams, but rather to further my campaign to get Michael Irvin fired as an analyst on ESPN. It’s bad enough he cannot enunciate a coherent sentence without needing his necktie as a bib, or that he shamelessly panders to all things Cowboys and remains defiantly ignorant of all things AFC. But to say that Tiki Barber “is quitting on his teammates” proves just how giant a clown Irvin has become. Guys who lead the league in rushing, never miss blitz pickups, and turn in great games against vaunted defenses under the brightest spotlights (against your Cowboys, no less) aren’t quitting when they say they are retiring after the season. Here’s hoping that ESPN replaces Irvin with Tiki next season. As for the game, Tampa is finding their way and just stole a game from the Eagles, who whipped them in every place except the scoreboard. The Giants are primed for a letdown game off the short week, but I think they have enough juice and a strong enough pass rush to keep surging. NY Giants 20, Tampa Bay 6.
San Francisco at Chicago All week the noise in both Chicago and San Francisco has been about how the Niners whipped the Bears in preseason. While that might give confidence to the 49ers, as might the debut of the intact left side of their OL, this Bears team is a different animal now. They have a swagger about them, a brimming confidence that puffs their chests even bigger at home. It’s to the point where they are looking for extra fodder to fire themselves up, and avenging an ugly preseason loss is just the ticket. They also have found their running game with Thomas Jones averaging nearly 5 yards per carry his last 3 games. That opens things up for a surprisingly effective downfield passing attack, and the 49ers already have major issues in both pass coverage and pressuring the QB. The last 3 games the Niners have played against quality teams they have lost 127-43. Chicago is better than any team they’ve played. I’ll take the average score of those games. Chicago 42, San Fran 14.
Freezing rain and thundersnow games New York Jets at Cleveland The Browns axed the inept Mo Carthon as offensive coordinator (see last week’s column for why I love this move). It’s a good week to try some new wrinkles out, as the Jets continue to give up large chunks of yardage and generate little pass rush without selling out on the blitz. The Browns have converted just 4 of their last 30 3rd down conversions, and two of those were via penalty. The bigger problem is predictability on 1st down, as any competent middle school coach could reliably predict what plays the Browns were going to run. The Jets offense is progressing nicely, and Chad Pennington deserves some mention in the MVP race. He’s been his old efficient, crafty self, and without him the Jets would be lucky to be 2-5 instead of 4-3. He gets to throw against a Browns secondary that could be missing the top 4 CBs on the preseason depth chart. The Browns have been game lately but just don’t have the horses. Jets 24, Browns 17.
Pittsburgh at Oakland I’ve said very little positive about the Raiders this season (who has?), but their defense has actually played pretty well 3 of their last 4 games, giving up just under 6 yards per pass attempt in those games. Derrick Burgess is as unblockable as any DE in the game, and Nnamdi Asomugha has developed into a quality cover CB. QB Andrew Walter comes off a decent game against a fair secondary, and the Steelers defense is looking more and more overhyped each week. The Steelers D is good, quite good in short stretches, and will no doubt look to make its mark against a brutal Raider OL and a gimpy RB Lamont Jordan. But this is not the same tenacious Steelers D we saw last year. It’s still good enough to beat the overmatched Raiders, but I have a feeling this game will be a lot closer than a lot of people think. Pittsburgh 16, Oakland 10.
Arizona at Green Bay One of the first games where the weather should be a real factor, and the Packers have momentum on their return home. The Packers decimated OL appeared to come together towards the end of the Miami win. With Bert Berry being the only real pass rushing threat for the Cards, the line gets a great chance to get more cohesive and build confidence. Arizona flies in having choked away a win to the best team (Chicago) and getting thoroughly whipped by the worst team (Oakland), with an even worse OL and a complete failure on 3rd down conversions by both their offense (1-for-11) and defense (13-for-20, the most 3rd down conversions in Raider history). Obligatory Brett Favre mention: Favre historically plays very well when facing a touted young QB for the first time. Matt Leinart looks very good, but he doesn’t have the support to knock off the grizzled veteran. Green Bay 31, Arizona 13.
Houston at Tennessee Houston comes off an impressive home win over Jacksonville in which their dreadful defense finally looked like an NFL unit. The Titans are also coming off a win, though they had an extra week to celebrate their inaugural victory. The only reason to watch this game is the matchup of Texans WR Andre Johnson and Titans CB PacMan Jones, two of the best young talents at their positions. The weather could make the field conditions poor, which always favors the better running team. The one thing Tennessee does reliably well is run the football, even more so since Vince Young took over at QB. Titans 25, Texans 21.
