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Football Meteorology For Week 9
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 1st November, 2006 - 10:42 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Eight weeks are now in the books, and the haves are separating from the have-nots. Much like the early fall weather, lots of NFL teams look a lot better at first glance than they do once you are actually exposed to the increasingly harsh elements. Injuries have wreaked havoc on several playoff-caliber teams, while ineffective play from prominent players has blown the season for others. Who would have expected Pittsburgh and Oakland to have the same 2-5 records, or St. Louis and New Orleans to be playoff teams, as they would if the season ended today?
Sometimes it’s good to be wrong. Last week I fearlessly predicted the Ravens would win at home; they beat the Saints in New Orleans, and I likely would have chosen the Saints had I realized they had a home game. New England’s Monday night victory ended the week with a solid 9-5 mark, which pushes the 5-week total to 47-22. That’s a mostly sunny forecast thus far, the goal of every weatherman. By popular demand I’ll include a college game once again, though it’s not the biggest game of the week.
Beach weather games
Indianapolis at New England
The Colts passed their Denver test, with Reggie Wayne proving he’s a legit #1 WR despite being the #2 guy in Indy. New England passed their tough road test even more impressively, as Tom Brady almost effortlessly shredded a previously stout Minnesota defense. This is a game the Colts desperately want to win as a statement game, and that has not worked well in the past for either Peyton Manning or coach Tony Dungy. Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark present major match-up issues for the Pats’ D, and Manning has no qualms about going to the well until it’s dry. The Patriots ability to stuff the run and bring pressure right up the middle will force Manning to throw the 5 and 10 yard routes where he sometimes gets careless. The Colts’ horrible run defense and undersized secondary was just the cure for Denver’s anemic offensive attack. New England has consistently abused far better defenses, and nobody devises better game plans for big games than Bill Belichick. The Colts stole K Adam Vinatieri from the Patriots precisely for games like this, but I have a feeling he won’t get the chance to attempt any game-winners this week. The Patriots prove they are the AFC’s best team with a 36-28 victory
Cincinnati at Baltimore
This game in all likelihood will decide the AFC North and playoff fate of both teams. If the Ravens triumph they hold a 2-game division lead, plus all relevant tiebreakers over the Bengals. Cincy has to win to have any realistic shot at being anything higher than the last playoff seed, and a loss will likely put them at least one game and a tiebreaker behind in that race. The Bengals have been so inconsistent, even from half to half. One half their run defense is outstanding and their WRs uncoverable; three drives later, they cannot tackle anyone and Carson Palmer has to keep throwing the ball away because nobody is open. The Ravens defense ranks 1st overall, 2nd against the run, and 1st against the pass in adjusted stats. They also lead the league in giving up yardage on first down, which greatly helps explain those rankings. They also showed a major improvement in last week’s win over the Saints in the red zone offense. With Brian Billick calling the plays, they went 3-for-3, all TDs. That portends a much sunnier remainder of the season for the Ravens. I still believe the Bengals have the ability to not only win, but convincingly win, every game they play. But until they keep the switch “On” for an entire game, they’re not going to beat other good teams, and Baltimore at home is no worse than the 4th best team overall. Ravens seize control of the AFC North with a 24-16 win.
Football weather games
Kansas City at St. Louis
The Chiefs ran all over the Seahawks last week, and Seattle has a much better run defense than the Rams. Kansas City’s defense is oft-maligned, but they’re actually a better-than-average unit in both run and pass defense. The Chiefs are a team built to win games 31-27, not 17-14, and their defense is good enough to do just that. The Chiefs also have the fewest defensive penalties in the NFL, a mark of good discipline and well-coached intensity. The Rams offense looked very strong against a tough San Diego defense in their loss last week, and they’ll pose a big challenge to that Chiefs unit with Torry Holt, Stephen Jackson, and the ageless Isaac Bruce all in top form. Both these teams are significantly better at home, and that’s enough for me to take the Rams. Also weighing in is the fact the Rams have a golden opportunity to take control of the NFC West while the Seahawks battle their myriad injuries. This isn’t the same Rams team of their recent successes, but they still have enough skilled veterans to understand the gravity of the situation. St. Louis 33, Kansas City 28.
Dallas at Washington
Tony Romo looked quite good in his first start as the Cowboys pounded the mistake-riddled Panthers. I’ll remind everyone of some other mid-season replacement QBs that started off quite strong: Scott Mitchell, Kelly Holcomb, Koy Detmer, Steve Walsh, Jeff Blake, Kyle Orton and Billy Joe Hobert. Tony Romo has a lot more in common with that rather undignified list than he does with Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, or Marc Bulger. The lesson: don’t get carried away based on 3 good quarters (out of 6) of QB play. This is one of the very few rivalry games where the “throw the records out the window” cliché applies every time, particularly in Washington. The Redskins offense has been very strong, and the Cowboys pass defense is quite vulnerable when the pass rush fails. Their highly-touted OLBs, DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis, are both miserable in pass coverage despite being lethal pass rushers and decent run defenders, and Ethnic Slurs QB Mark Brunell checks down and throws the flare and short crossing patterns quite well. Dallas won the first meeting, but the Skins played that game without their two best players, RB Clinton Portis and CB Shawn Springs. Washington exacts revenge and tries to stay in the NFC East race with a 27-17 win.
Duck weather games
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Lost in the Saints’ loss to the Ravens was that the Saints played a pretty strong ballgame against a pretty good team. Take away the 4 INTs thrown by Drew Brees and the Saints did everything needed to win. Tampa is really struggling to move the ball, managing under 200 yards of total offense each of the past two weeks. They also fumbled 6 times last week (losing only 1) while gaining under 1 yard per first down snap. The Saints don’t have a great defense, but their DEs apply consistent pressure and their secondary excels at run support. The New Orleans defense is prone to giving up long runs and deep passes, but Tampa has shown little ability to generate either of those. They’re not nearly as good away from home, but the Saints are still good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that needs an opponent to beat itself to win. Drew Brees rights his ship, and the Saints sail into the Pirate Ship and win 27-13.
Denver at Pittsburgh
Both teams come in off humbling losses that were probably very accurate barometers for figuring out just where these teams fit in the AFC hierarchy. I don’t read too much into Denver’s defensive woes against the Colts, nothing that makes me believe Pittsburgh’s sputtering offense will have similar success. Most of the fingers in Pittsburgh are pointed at Ben Roethlisberger and his major decline in play, but if you look closely the more discernable differences between the 2005 Super Bowl Champs and this year’s 2-5 edition is a falloff in the play of the left side of the offensive line. They also badly need rookie WR Santonio Holmes to become a bigger factor and better target. That’s a very tall order against a Denver defense that has absolutely dominated 6 of its first 7 games. I also don’t read much into the Broncos offensive success against a porous Colts D that puts almost no pressure on the QB. Pittsburgh’s D can still bring the heat from multiple angles, and they’re still a formidable force at home. The professional oddsmakers still believe in the Steelers, making them 2 point favorites despite clearly inferior play. I don’t share in their confidence in Big Ben, who has played exactly 5 good quarters of football and been the reincarnation of bumbling Bubby Brister in the remainder. With C Justin Hartwig out, Pittsburgh loses another one of its advantages. Denver reasserts its playoff credentials with a 16-13 win, nailing the Steelers’ playoff coffin shut.
Atlanta at Detroit
Atlanta QB Michael Vick has finally developed chemistry with his receivers, who in turn have made great strides in learning how to play with a scrambling QB. That is an underappreciated skill, one that isn’t an easy adjustment for most WRs. They still run the ball better than anyone, but Vick has shown confidence, patience, and nice touch the past two weeks, and that makes Atlanta an elite offense. Detroit should be able to score points as well, but their pass defense is a major weakness. Falcons TE Alge Crumpler is a nightmare matchup for teams with good cover LBs; the Lions have perhaps the worst coverage LBs and safeties in the game. An improving Lions offensive line should open some big holes for RB Kevin Jones, and QB Jon Kitna scans the fields as well as anyone when he has time, which he should with DE Jon Abraham once again injured. This is a great game to bet the over, with all the makings of a scorefest. Atlanta knocks the Lions to 1-7 with a 34-30 road triumph.
Green Bay at Buffalo
The Packers have done a nice job of winning games against other lousy teams, and their woefully inexperienced OL is starting to congeal into a halfway decent unit. Brett Favre didn’t get sacked and was only hurried 4 times by Arizona, which one week earlier pressured and harassed the Bears offense into mistake after mistake. The Bills have played 3 bad games in a row, and had their bye week to think about just how lousy they’ve played. I never like teams that shrink into their bye week, especially ones with poor OLs and shaky QB play. Yet this is another one of those gambling “trap” games, though, with the Bills listed as 3 point favorites despite appearing to be the inferior team. There were two such games last week, and Cleveland and Tennessee both prevailed under the same circumstances. That leads me to believe I’m over-thinking, mistaking innocuous cirrus clouds for stormier nimbus clouds. I’ll trust the guys whose livelihoods depend on it over my confidence in an improving AJ Hawk-led Packers defense. Buffalo 26, Green Bay 24.
Penguin weather games
Miami at Chicago
The best defense in the league faces off against one of the worst offenses, and one of the most explosive offenses takes on a declining defense highly vulnerable to the big play. What’s odd is that it’s the same team that has both strong units, and Chicago is even better when playing at home and Miami is worse on the road. Miami is a team that inexplicably threw the ball 62 times in their last game despite playing a middling backup QB behind a shaky OL with a below-average WR corps, basically ignoring their top weapon, RB Ronnie Brown. I thought Chicago would miss S Mike Brown more than they showed against the 49ers, but the secondary still looked very solid and the punchless Dolphins can’t exploit it either. Miami’s run defense is stout and their aged DL can still generate QB pressure from time to time. The Bears run D gives up big runs a lot more than they should, and Ronnie Brown is talented enough to break the big one. A career game from Joey Harrington and Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers would be enough to give the Dolphins a chance if they can somehow go +4 in turnovers. That isn’t going to happen in Chicago. Bears roll 33-9.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Kudos to both these teams and their coaching staffs. The Jaguars went into Philly in a slump and emerged with a dominating effort by their defense and running games. Coach Jack Del Rio opted to start backup QB David Garrard over a gimpy Byron Leftwich, and though their passing game was ineffective, Garrard avoided sacks and mistakes and also rushed for 36 yards, more than Leftwich will have his entire career. The Titans have done a very nice job tailoring their offense to suit rookie QB Vince Young. Since their humiliating loss to Dallas, they’ve come within a 3rd down conversion of beating the undefeated Colts and won games over the Ethnic Slurs and Texans. They’re doing it with smoke and mirrors though; they have no discernable passing game, a very leaky secondary other than PacMan Jones, and lots of trouble getting their defense off the field. It’s very difficult to win games while being totally reliant on breaking long runs against a stacked front and converting turnovers and returns into points, and the Titans are trying to do that for a 3rd game in a row. I love Jeff Fisher and like a lot of their young talent, but they don’t have the playmakers to keep that up. Jacksonville wins, 26-20 if Leftwich starts at QB, 30-13 if Garrard starts.
Houston at NY Giants
If you’ve been a steady reader of this column, you’re aware of my seemingly baseless bête-noir against the Giants. I’m finally over it, and right now I’d rank them the 2nd best team in the NFC (#6 overall). Houston QB David Carr got yanked last week in the midst of a dreadful outing against a pretty lousy Titans defense. The Giants relentless pass rush and underrated coverage scheme make for a tough rebound game, especially with the Texans’ hit and miss running game and middling OL. Houston’s defense has quietly improved even though they’re still dead last in adjusted defense; 3 of their last 4 games they’ve given up only under 21 offensive points, and they’ve shaved nearly 3 yards per pass attempt from their average in the last 3 weeks. They haven’t played any offense with close to the weaponry of Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, and Jeremy Shockey during that time, and it will show in this game. I like the Giants big, 37-13. Now that I’m on board with the Giants being a legit power, they’ll probably blow this game and I will then proceed to pick against them every week for the rest of the season.
Minnesota at San Francisco
At least the Niners won’t be losing 41-0 at halftime this week, not against a Vikings offense that has put up more than 20 points just twice all season. San Francisco’s defense is almost comically inept, giving up 89 points and recording zero sacks and 4 total QB pressures in their last two games. Their corners can’t cover, they get no pass rush even when blitzing, their safeties have poor range, and it’s the easiest bunch to block in the NFL. I’m reminded of my intramural football days at Ohio U., when my rag-tag freshman dorm team took on the defending campus champs. Their QB had so much time he actually lit up a cigarette right before the snap and still smoked our defense. Vikings QB Brad Johnson had an awful night against New England, but when he’s got time he can still nickel and dime a defense all over the field. The Viking defense clogs the middle as well as anyone, and with the exception of the Patriots barrage their secondary is pretty good at limiting yards after catch and run support. But the Vikings don’t attack an offense like the Bears, so expect the SF offense to show once again they’re actually an average unit, which is a vast improvement from recent years. Another good game to bet the over. Vikings 33, 49ers 24.
Oakland at Seattle
When they first looked at their schedules this season, I bet the Raiders dreaded Weeks 8 and 9. Playing the two Super Bowl teams from last season back to back sure looked ominous. But the Raiders beat the Steelers despite netting just 97 total offensive yards, and now they get an injury-ravaged Seattle team that cannot contain the passing game. Oakland’s strong pass rush and ever-improving secondary gave Pittsburgh fits, but the Seahawks have a very agile Seneca Wallace at QB and still have a strong pass-blocking OL. The Raiders OL is brutal and strangely not showing signs of improvement despite having two HOF linemen on the coaching staff. This Raiders offense could wind up being among the 5 least productive units in modern NFL history, in terms of yards per play and time of possession. Seattle’s defense is nowhere near last year’s Super Bowl level, but they still have enough pride and ability to shut down the silver and black. This is a game the Seahawks cannot afford to lose, and they won’t as long as they don’t turn the ball over. The Raiders are clearly no longer the worst team in the NFL, possibly not among the bottom 5, but that is their high-water mark. Seattle triumphs 20-9.
Cleveland at San Diego
The Chargers face their first game without superb LB Shawne Merriman, who is suspended for using a banned hormone. They do have some depth at LB, but how they respond to losing the emotional leader of their team remains to be seen. They still have a very effective offense, leading the AFC in scoring and featuring the best RB duo in the league. Cleveland’s offensive line looked like a totally different unit last week with their position coach Jeff Davidson taking over the offense, and they’ll need to play that well once again to have any chance. Both rookie LBs for the Browns, Kamerion Wimbley and D’Qwell Jackson, have been consistently strong , and their safeties are playing much better than most expected. Even when they’ve been terrible, and that’s pretty much every season sine their reincarnation, the Browns put together one shocking upset every year. I’m not bold enough to predict it in this game, not in San Diego with the Chargers’ balanced offense and excellent special teams, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns pulled it off here. San Diego 27, Cleveland 16.
Drinking in the Dorm Room game
#13 LSU at #8 Tennessee
The Volunteers have been no worse than the 6th best team in the country, with their only loss to perpetual nemesis Florida. LSU also lost to Florida, and has padded its record with wins over vastly inferior competition than the Vols have played. This game is at Rocky Top in the afternoon, not Baton Rouge at night, yet somehow the oddsmakers like LSU, making them 1.5 point favorites. So long as dinged-up UT QB Erik Ainge plays, and every indicator says he will, this is one of those to stick it to the house. Tennessee has the D to slow down LSU QB Jamarcus Russell, and the Tigers are a vastly inferior team away from the Bayou. Tennessee wins 27-16.
