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Football Meteorology For Week 10
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th November, 2006 - 5:00 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Week 9 provided an abject lesson in predicting both the outcomes of football games and the autumnal weather. Just when every conceivable forecast points to one thing, some rogue wind blows or a distant volcano erupts and throws everything off. The volcano of football is typically turnovers, and that’s what led to the shocking outcomes in Chicago and San Francisco. As I predicted, the Dolphins’ only shot to beat the Bears was to go +4 in turnovers and for Joey Harrington to have a great day. Joey wasn’t great, merely a whole lot better than Bears QB Rex Grossman, who actually reminded me a great deal of Harrington’s Detroit days with his miserable breakdowns.
I wound up 9-6 in games, including Washington saving my bacon with their freakish upset of the Cowboys on one of the wildest game ending sequences we’re ever going to witness. As a point of comparison, the forecasts in the two most widely read sports magazines and websites were 7-7 and 5-9 (I picked a college game as well, which I got wrong). Any time you’re atop the ratings, well, that trumps the overall accuracy of the forecast.
Week 10 brings a merciful end to the byes, which also means all teams are apples to apples by having all played 8 games. It also features a bunch of divisional games with playoff ramifications, despite having few strong matchups. By request from frequent reader Paul in Muskegon, this week I’ll include my personal power ranking in parenthesis after the team name. I’ll try another college game as well, though once again probably not the most marquee game.
Sunny Games:
Chicago (#5) at New York Giants (#6):
This had all the trappings of a great matchup. Then both teams played well below their norm, with the Bears bumbling through a loss to lowly Miami, and the Giants limping through a squeaker over equally lowly Houston. As many as 10 Giants regular starters from two weeks ago could miss this game, including pretty much every Giant you’ve heard of aside from Eli Manning and Tiki Barber. Chicago desperately needs a strong bounceback game to regain their lofty status and restore their roar. The Giants pressure the QB as well as anyone, and that’s clearly the MO for attacking QB Rex Grossman. The Bears OL is an odd one; the left side excels at pass blocking, the right side at run blocking, but both sides are sorely one-dimensional lately. It doesn’t help that the blocking assignments are overly simplistic, nor that RBs Thomas Jones and Ced Benson both lack the ability to find secondary holes. If the Giants were 100% healthy I’d take them to win. But one of the first lessons you learn is “Don’t poke the angry Bear”, and their D is frothing at the mouth to attack. Chicago rights the ship and lays sole claim to NFC supremacy with a 20-13 win.
St. Louis (#19) at Seattle (#11):
The rankings and play of these teams doesn’t appear to merit sunny status, but this is the game that will largely decide the NFC West champion. Seattle’s defense looked mighty impressive on Monday night, but I discount that almost completely because it was more a case of offensive ineptitude by the Raiders. The Rams have very little trouble throwing the ball or protecting QB Marc Bulger, who continues to avoid INTs like Paris Hilton avoids dignity. Both teams struggle at stopping the run, but neither team runs the ball as well as expected. The Rams are more committed to the run, however, and Seattle can ill afford to stack the line to stop the run, lest Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce light up their secondary. The Seahawks do have a strong home-field advantage, and the mobility of QB Seneca Wallace promises lots of trouble for the Rams’ mistake-prone back 7. This is one of those “variable winds” games, where it’s likely one key play that decides the outcome of a close game. I’ll take the Rams to tie up the worst division in football and take a 27-23 road win.
San Diego (#2) at Cincinnati (#13):
A must-win game for the Bengals if they want to have any control over their own playoff destiny. Last week they failed in similar straits, basically giving the Ravens the AFC North title. The Bengals have to improve on 3rd down, where they have just one rushing 3rd down conversion in their last 10 quarters. That means improving on 1st down, but that’s a tough task against the Chargers defense, which ranks 2nd overall in yards per first down. The Chargers D bent a whole lot against Cleveland, but held enough to force 6 FGs. Cincy has a much more potent offense than Cleveland, but if San Diego can stop them early, this Bengals unit has proven it will start doubting itself. Stopping the Chargers balanced offense will create doubt for any unit, but should really give trouble to a Bengals D that doesn’t tackle well or effectively cover slot WRs or TEs. Cincinnati hasn’t won a game without winning the turnover battle, and that’s one advantage Martyball affords the Chargers; they rarely turn the ball over and don’t run high-risk plays. Bad matchup for the stumbling Bengals. San Diego 33, Cincinnati 21.
Overcast Games:
Washington (#21) at Philadelphia (#15): The Eagles have not played well since their dominating win over the Cowboys a month ago, while Washington has basically only played about 5 good quarters the entire season. The sharp decline of the Skins D, particularly in pass rush and coverage, has been the main source of disappointment. That’s bad news against a Philly team that throws more on 1st and 2nd down than any other team. The Eagles have trailed at halftime 5 games in a row, indicative of a team that doesn’t dictate the action, but rather reacts to the other team. That only works when both the offense and defense play well, and that hasn’t been the case lately. The more I watch Washington, the more I get the feeling they’re a rudderless ship full of slightly above-average talents, trying to ride out waves instead of opening the throttle and going all-out for the glorious shore. Sort of like the last few seasons of Saturday Night Live, in a way. Philly’s offense is far and away the best unit in this matchup, and I’ll surf that wave home and forecast a 30-20 Eagles win.
NY Jets (#16) at New England (#3):
The Patriots tend to not just bounce back from a loss, they storm the field and leave no survivors. Following the last 12 games they’ve lost, and that goes back to the 2003 season, they’re 12-0 with an average score of 30-14 the next week. Included in that are 16-3 and 23-7 victories over the Jets. The Jets are 4-4 and represent the only real divisional threat to the Pats. Although they’ve played well most every week, they haven’t beaten a team with more than 3 wins. The Jets run D is dead last in adjusted stats and has given up 13 rushing TDs. They also struggle in coverage against teams who spread the ball around, and few do that better than Tom Brady & Co. New England actually played well against the Colts, but tipped passes and poor special teams discipline cost them. The Patriots take out their frustration, even without S Rodney Harrison, and pummel the Jets 36-10.
Rainy Games:
New Orleans (#8) at Pittsburgh (#24):
If you could have bet someone before the season that New Orleans would be 6-2 and Pittsburgh 2-6, you’d be a very rich person right now. I needed to see New Orleans play well in a tough environment and not succumb to an inferior team. They showed me they are for real in trouncing the Bucs in Tampa, though the Saints always seem to win there. The Steelers are talking about juggling lineups to provide a spark, but until their safeties start playing the pass better, they’re going to need more firepower from their offense than any changing of the lineup can provide. Big Ben still isn’t all right, and the Saints pile up sacks and QB pressures without having to blitz as well as anyone. It’s time to put to rest the notion that this Steelers team is this close to starting another miraculous playoff run, but this is a game they can win against a quality opponent. Last week I talked about “trap” games, where a seemingly inferior team is favored at home over a seemingly stronger opponent. This game fits that bill, and it’s why I’m taking the Steelers in spite of what all the indicators tell me. Pittsburgh 24, New Orleans 20.
Buffalo (#20) at Indianapolis (#1):
There’s two ways to look at Indy’s win over New England. The first way is to revel in the Colts finally conquering their white whale, getting the emotional monkey off their back and anointing themselves as undisputed kings of the AFC jungle. The other way is to note they greatly benefited from 2 INTs off tipped passes and a few highly debatable whistles, got very lucky their prized K missing two FGs didn’t hurt them, and still had no apparent run defense. They’re still undefeated, but they’re living dangerously. It’s also worth noting that the Colts are primed for a letdown after winning in Denver and New England, with a home game against an inferior team playing without its star RB, Willis McGahee. Buffalo winning this game is more likely than Miami beating Chicago last week. The Bills pressure the QB quite well and do it from all over the field, the recipe for disrupting Peyton Manning. If Bills QB JP Losman can remember to throw only to his own teammates, and their return teams win the field position battles, it should be a close game. Indy is still the better team, and I’m still not sold on neither Losman nor the Bills ability to run the ball without McGahee, even against a badly undersized Colts D. Indianapolis 27, Buffalo 18.
Green Bay (#22) at Minnesota (#18):
Both teams come in off unimpressive road losses to inferior teams. Obligatory Brett Favre reference: Favre had gone 3 games without throwing an INT, and after that was mentioned for the 300th time during pregame shows, I knew then and there he would throw at least as many TDs for the Bills as he would for the Packers. It’s too bad, because the Green Bay defense is steadily improving, particularly in yards per pass attempt (YPA). That’s a reflection of an improved pass rush led by Aaron Kampman, plus steady progress by LBs AJ Hawk and Brady Poppinga. Two weeks ago on RealGMRadio I extolled the Vikings’ well-oiled machine, praising their execution and disciplined style. Sine then they got trounced 31-7 by a good team and lost 9-3 to one of the worst defenses of the 21st century. The Packers are quite vulnerable to deep passes and speedy WRs running crossing routes. But Vikings QB Brad Johnson almost never throws long, and their receivers don’t get separation in their routes or run well after the catch. What’s truly scary about this game is that the winner is probably no worse than a game out of the playoff picture with 7 to play. In what’s basically a coin-flipper, I’ll take the Vikings and their superior D at home to win 16-12.
Tampa Bay (#29) at Carolina (#17):
The Bucs offense finally showed life against the Saints, but that only further exposes the hard reality that their vaunted D is a thing of the past. Sure, they still have some great players, but it’s apparent their key players are on the downside and the supporting cast just isn’t what it used to be. The Panthers have been a tough team to read, and coming off a bye makes it that much harder to figure out what they’re going to do. Carolina worked extensively on their run blocking and cutback plays during the bye, and if hard work pays off the Bucs D won’t be able to attack as they like. I always like teams coming off a bye at home playing a team coming off a home loss, particularly when the road team is starting a rookie QB behind a shaky OL. Carolina pours it on to kick off the second half of their season, 30-10.
u>Early Blizzard Games:
Denver (#7) at Oakland (#31):
The schedule makers apparently have a vendetta against the Raiders; over a 5-week stretch they play PIT, @SEA, DEN, @KC, and @SD. Oakland is just competent enough to win one of those games, and they already seized the game against the disappointing Steelers. Denver’s offense appears to have found the right gear after sputtering early on, scoring over 30 points in consecutive games. WR Javon Walker is finally developing chemistry with QB Jake Plummer. Because it’s in Oakland and for some reason the Raiders always give the Broncos fits, this game isn’t the lock it appears. But it’s going to take Denver beating itself for the embattled Raiders to win, and I just don’t see that happening. Denver 20, Oakland 6.
Dallas (#12) at Arizona (#32):
Two teams with an alarming propensity for stealing defeat from the jaws of victory match up in the desert. The Cardinals have lost games in which they: had a +4 turnover margin; had a 20-point lead and held the opponent to just 5 1st downs after getting that lead; twice had their All Pro kicker miss game winning FGs; and gave up nearly double the average yards to the worst offense in the league. The Cowboys lost last week thanks to a blocked game-winning FG and a penalty on the ensuing runback. Dallas also leads the league in giving up conversions via penalty, and is near the bottom in allowing rushing TDs despite being 5th in stopping the run. You never know what to expect of the Cardinals, except that they’re probably going to lose. Dallas typically views this trip as a 9th home game, and as long as their OL can hold up against a pretty solid Arizona pass rush, they should enjoy the trip once again. Dallas 27, Arizona 17.
Cleveland (#27) at Atlanta (#14):
The good news for Cleveland: last week they put together 7 scoring drives for the first time in 5 years, and did so while facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. The bad news: 6 of those were FGs, most of them short ones, and QB Charlie Frye and favorite target TE Kellen Winslow II are both questionable with injuries that will alter their play even if they go. Atlanta’s offense struggled with a Lions D that rarely rushed more than 3, yet still stacked the line of scrimmage. The Falcons still ran the ball well, but the long homerun breaks were contained, and QB Michael Vick has issues finding passing lanes and WRs who were not open very often. The Browns don’t stop the run well, particularly the outside run, so Warrick Dunn and Vick should rack up yards. Atlanta’s D is actually a decent unit but vulnerable to giving up big plays at bad times, but Cleveland’s offense has shown almost no ability to make the big play, even with new OC Jeff Davidson. Atlanta wins 23-13.
San Francisco (#23) at Detroit (#26):
The 49ers head to Detroit after winning what might qualify as the most boring game in NFL history, beating the Vikings 9-3 in a game with under 375 yards of total offense and no pass attempts deeper than 18 yards. The Lions offense continues to roll, having scored at least 20 points in 6 of its last 7 games. The emergence of Mike Furrey as a legit #2 WR has allowed Roy Williams to blossom, and the Detroit OL has played significantly better as they’ve gotten healthier and more cohesive playing time. The SF defense has been consistently abysmal despite last week’s showing, and the Lions offense has enough firepower to run up lots of points. Detroit’s D will give up lots of passing yards and miss enough tackles to allow the Niners to hang around. The Lions have a real legit shot to put together a 6-2 string with an easy schedule; right now they’re 2-1 in the string and the schedule gets easier. Detroit builds on their momentum with a 37-24 win.
Baltimore (#4) at Tennessee (#30):
Telling moment in the Ravens’ last game that this is a team to be reckoned with: Jamal Lewis’ 2 yard TD run in the 1st quarter, after getting stuffed the prior play. That tells me Head Coach Brian Billick has decided to let his players decide games instead of trying to beat the other coach at matchup chess. The Titans do very little well except running the ball, but that’s butting into what the Ravens do best: stopping the run. The only real vulnerability the Ravens defense has shown is on the deep pass off a crossing route or timing pattern double move, but the Titans don’t have that in their watered-down playbook while they spoon-feed raw rookie QB Vince Young. Factor in the grudging emotion of QB Steve McNair returning against the team that unceremoniously locked him out, and this one could be ugly. Ravens K Matt Stover should be a busy man. Baltimore 38, Tennessee 10.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Game:
Western Michigan at Central Michigan:
Okay, nobody outside of MAC-dom cares about this game. But here in Michigan this is a great rivalry game, and this year it decides the MAC West. It’s also a game featuring two of the better players you’ve never heard of, WMU LB Ameer Ismail and CMU DE Daniel Bazuin. Ismail leads the nation in sacks and is quietly moving up some draft boards. Bazuin is a likely 1st day draft pick and has a first step very reminiscent of Dwight Freeney. Central features dual-threat QB Dan LeFevour, who will test a solid Broncos defense that relies on heavy pressure and forcing turnovers. This game also features two coaches who will be moving up to BCS schools sometime in the near future, perhaps next season. I like the balance of CMU’s offense to pull out the 30-27 home win, setting up a likely MAC title game with Ohio University.
