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Football Meteorology For Week 11
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 15th November, 2006 - 12:47 am
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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A good week in the forecast center concludes at 10-5, which I’m quite happy with after numerous upsets and surprise outcomes. Weather played a definite factor in the Jets upset of the Patriots, and it looks to factor in this weekend’s games in Green Bay, Cleveland, and Denver.
It’s this point of the season where water is finding its level. That means underachieving squads start to look better, and the overachievers being to fall. That phenomenon has already begun, but this over the next two weeks I anticipate the leveling to really pick up.
Once again I’ve included a college game, and this one is the Big One at the Horseshoe. The numbers in parentheses indicate the team rank in my own mental power poll.
Sunny games:
Indianapolis (#1) at Dallas (#10):
This sure looks like one of those “either/or” contests on the weather map. The fronts might converge and produce a perfect storm upset, or the prevailing winds carry the hotter air mass right past the hard-charging, upstart cold front. Indy hasn’t been pretty in going 9-0, but they keep finding enough fingers for the cracks in the dam. Dallas hasn’t been pretty in going 5-4 despite having the #3 point differential and having a positive turnover ratio in all but two games. Instead of plugging the dam, they keep cracking even when the water isn’t surging. The Colts offense can flood a defense with the best of them, and their pass rush is starting to find its expected strength. This does qualify as a “trap” game, where the seemingly weaker team is favored at home, and that gives me cause for concern. Dallas hasn’t been running the ball as well since Tony Romo took over at QB (in a related development, see my JAX-NYG preview below), and losing premium pass rusher Greg Ellis to a torn Achilles is going to cost them against Peyton Manning. Colts stay unbeaten with a hard-fought 31-26 win.
San Diego (#4) at Denver (#5):
The high-powered Chargers offense heads to Denver to take on a stingy, physical Denver defense. Something has to give. San Diego has scored 47 more points than any other team, and RB Ladanian Tomlinson and PK Nate Kaeding together have outscored all but 7 teams. Denver’s defense is still conceding just one TD and a FG or two per game, and the Broncos have won 9 straight AFC West home games. It’s games like this where Broncos coach Mike Shanahan usually shows why he’s one of the best in the business, and when Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer proves that nice guys don’t win. Somehow Denver wins 24-21.
NY Giants (#8) at Jacksonville (#15):
Lots of times when a team makes a QB change mid-season, it appears brilliant for a week or two. Then the reality game hits, and they remember why the new starter was their backup not so long ago. That happened to Jacksonville last week, as David Garrard flat-out stunk against a very porous Houston pass defense. The Giants have an injury list that reads like their preseason “key players” guide, and the loss of LT Luke Petitgout presents the biggest loss yet. He’s not the sexiest name, but he was the glue on a very iffy, very thin OL. When QB Eli Manning has been pressured in the past, the Giants have not looked good. So long as Garrard bounces back and the Jags rediscover their running game, Jacksonville should win in another “trap” game. Jaguars 34, Giants 17.
Atlanta (#14) at Baltimore (#3):
The Falcons are stumbling after losses to lowly Detroit and Cleveland, games in which QB Michael Vick brought back validity to the nagging questions about his ability to be a complete NFL QB. Baltimore’s defense is not a good matchup even when Vick is at his elusive best, which he’s not. Add the fact the Ravens faced another erratic-but-speedy scrambler (Vince Young) last week, and they are primed for the challenge. Since Brian Billick took over the playcalling, the Ravens haven’t lost and have put up at least 26 points each week. Atlanta has major injury issues on defense to guys that cannot be replaced, and the Ravens OL finally looks like they’re coming together without Ed Mulitalo. Baltimore 29, Atlanta 13.
Fair Skies with Wind games:
New England (#6) at Green Bay (#19):
One week ago this game seemed a no-brainer, but a funny thing happened on the way to Lambeau Field: New England lost its 2nd in a row for the first time in 4 years, and the Packers erupted over a pretty strong Vikings defense. Now there are more than subtle hints that the Brett Favre of old has recaptured the magic, and it always seems more magical in northern Wisconsin in sub-freezing weather. The Pats are fighting injuries, but they’re always doing that and typically do it better than anyone. Green Bay’s LBs will provide a tough test for QB Tom Brady, as AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett have been all over the field making plays the past few weeks. Sticking with the “water finding its level” premise, it’s a lot more feasible to see New England at 7-3 than 6-5, and likewise Green Bay is much more a 4-6 team than they are a 5-5 team threatening to make the playoffs. New England 27, Green Bay 21.
Cincinnati (#18) at New Orleans (#9):
These teams combined for 72 points last week and both lost, which makes this the highest-scoring prior game loser matchup in NFL history in which each team scored more than 21 points. The prior record holder game produced something of an anomaly, a 13-10 overtime win by the Vikings over the Lions. Both these teams consistently score well, but the Saints have been more consistent in stopping the opponent. Cincy’s injury-ravaged D depends on turnovers and offensive penalties to get critical stops, and that’s a very dangerous fire to dance around. Saints QB Drew Brees spreads the ball around better than anyone, and the Saints don’t make many penalties or turnovers. It’s time for everyone to realize that this is not the Bengals team we all expected in August; the injuries and suspensions have made this a different unit that needs lots of breaks to win. The Saints won’t give them enough, not at home in a game they need to win to have any shot at playing a home playoff game. New Orleans 38, Cincinnati 27.
Chicago (#2) at NY Jets (#17):
Chicago gets to spend another week in the New Jersey swamplands after asserting their NFC dominance last week. The Jets fly home after unexpectedly making a race of the AFC East by winning in New England. This matchup by the numbers: Chicago has a point differential of +134, the Jets are -30. Other than last week’s win, the Jets have struggled against likely playoff teams, especially those that can rush the passer. Chicago blasted past both its likely playoff-bound foes, and their tenacious D leads the league in opposing QB rating and QB pressures. The Jets are smart enough and have enough solid talent in the right spots to make a game of it, but Chicago has the superior offense, defense, and special teams. The Second City sweeps the Big Apple with a 30-17 win.
Cold November Rain games:
Seattle (#7) at San Francisco (#23):
The 49ers are a great example of why statistics don’t tell the whole story. They rank 31st in point differential, last in points allowed, minus 4 in turnover margin, 23rd in 3rd down conversions, and 22nd in yards per 1st down snap. Yet somehow they are 4-5. They won last week by playing exactly two good drives and watching the Lions continually put thorns in their own paws. Seattle should get its top two weapons, QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander, back from injury for this divisional game. Even without them, Seattle isn’t the type of team to hand a game to a vastly inferior opponent. Seattle ups its NFC West lead to 4 games with 6 to play with a 33-13 win.
Pittsburgh (#16) at Cleveland (#24):
Both teams are 3-6 and both are probably better than their record indicates. Pittsburgh actually has a positive point differential and both their offense and defense are in the top 10 in adjusted strength. Cleveland has lost 5 games by less than a touchdown, and in those games they had 11 drives where they entered the Red Zone and failed to score a point. The Browns rookie LBs, D’Qwell Jackson and Kamerion Wimbley, both are playing like savvy vets and making a huge impact on the pass defense. Ben Roethlisberger appeared to have the mental cobwebs all cleared last week, but just as important was the improved run blocking of the Steeler OL. Last year Pittsburgh came into Cleveland and thrashed the Browns 41-0, and don’t think the Browns haven’t forgotten that humiliation. The Browns have just one win at home against the Steelers since their return to the shores of Lake Erie. Pittsburgh is the better team and thus their water level ebbs higher, so the Steelers are the pick. Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20.
St. Louis (#21) at Carolina (#12):
The Panthers are 5-2 with Steve Smith healthy, and they appear to have rediscovered their offensive mojo in the second half of their Monday night domination of Tampa Bay. St. Louis has dropped 4 in a row to upper-echelon teams. Though the games have been close, the Rams have consistently cracked under pressure and now must play without LT Orlando Pace, who had his triceps muscle imitate a cheap window shade last weekend. Pace isn’t an elite lineman anymore, but he was still effective, and shuffling an OL headed into a game against perhaps the best DL is not going to be pretty. Carolina 29, St. Louis 17.
Only if you’re Snowed In games:
Buffalo (#25) at Houston (#26):
They’re both 3-6, both played arguably their best games of the season last week, and both have offenses that struggle mightily to put together long scoring drives. Both also feature QBs that are real close to losing their jobs, but also have shown remarkable pluck when the switch seems imminent. In short, this is a pretty even matchup of two teams that aren’t bad enough to snare a premium draft slot, but aren’t near good enough to threaten .500, a sort of eternal “below-average” purgatory. Simply because I’ve been to Buffalo and never to Houston, I’ll take the Bills to win 15-13. You might find that a ridiculous way to pick games, but know this: there’s a cat in suburban Chicago that spews hairballs onto a mat to pick games, and it does better than ESPN host Mike Greenberg.
Oakland (#29) at Kansas City (#11):
The Chiefs desperately need a rebound victory after stumbling in Miami, and a return to Arrowhead against the bumbling-but-improving Raiders sure looks like just what the medicine man ordered. The right side of Oakland’s embattled OL is starting to look competent, and QB Andrew Walter is figuring out the need to get rid of the ball quickly. It’s not traditional Raider football, but it’s a lot more effective. Mixing in Justin Fargas at RB is also more effective, but he’s no Larry Johnson. Johnson remains one of the very best weapons in football, and even without TE Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs offense is very efficient and potent. This is one of the few true NFL rivalries, and the games are usually close even when the teams are not. In the Marcus Allen Bowl, I’ll take Kansas City 26-16.
Tennessee (#31) at Philadelphia (#13):
This is another dreaded hiccup game for the Eagles, and thus far they haven’t had the right antacid to quell the upsets. The Titans run the ball quite well and quite often, which poses issues for an Eagles D that will give up the big run and has loads of trouble on 3rd down and short. On 3rd and 3 or less, the Eagles give up conversions at a 68% rate, 31st in the NFL (only SF is worse). Still, the Eagles have the better overall offense and defense in this matchup, and they looked razor sharp in dissecting the rival Skins last week. The Titans typically play one half of very competitive football each week, and when the other team isn’t playing well they can steal a win or make it a close game. I expect Donovan McNabb to be strong, and a healthier Donte Stallworth at WR presents major problems for a weak Titans secondary. Philadelphia 30, Tennessee 19.
Washington (#27) at Tampa Bay (#30):
The Ethnic Slurs turn to Jason Campbell at QB, hoping he can fire up a sputtering attack that will be without RB Clinton Portis for at least a month. Their offense struggled scoring with Portis, and the usurped QB Mark Brunell isn’t the reason the team is 3-6. They rank 6th in adjusted offense, but penalties and a complete inability to rush the passer or force turnovers have sunk Washington. Now coach Joe Gibbs inserts a very raw QB with a backup RB and the shortest WR corps in football. Tampa Bay’s D struggles in coverage and is even worse in pressuring the passer, but they have enough talent to not get exploited by the Ethnic Slurs offense. This game will answer the chicken/egg argument of “can bad offenses score on bad defenses?” Tampa Bay 13, Washington 10
Detroit (#28) at Arizona (#32):
Detroit hasn’t won in the week before their annual Thanksgiving game since 1998; Arizona is 2-5 in their last 6 Week 11 games with an average score of 37-20, and one of those games was a 45-38 win over Detroit. From the freakishly sad fact dept.: These teams have met 14 times in the Super Bowl era, and just three times has either team had a winning record when they squared off. Detroit’s offense is far and away the best unit of the primary matchups, but it badly struggled last week against the worst D in the league. Don’t count on that happening again. In a game that would draw under 10,000 fans in their old stadium, a near-capacity crowd wastes a fine, sunny Sunday watching Detroit beat Arizona 37-20
Drinking in the Dorm Room game:
Michigan at Ohio State:
I could literally write a 25-page essay breaking this game down into the minutiae that would make Dickens blush, but I’ll keep it overly simplistic. Which QB do I trust more to win a game, and which head coach do I trust to make the better decisions? Ohio State gets both checkmarks. Buckeyes 26, Wolverines 20.
