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Thanksgiving Edition Of Football Meteorology (Week 12)
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 23rd November, 2006 - 12:35 am
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Another decent week in the forecast center with an 11-6 mark, and we’re headed into the crunch time of the season. It’s unseasonably warm here in western Michigan and across much of the eastern half of the country, which means weather won’t play much of a factor in most of this weekend’s games.
Turkey Day Games
Miami (#19) at Detroit (#32)
The Joey Harrington Bowl, and it’s hard to discern whether it’s better to have him or not. Miami is surging once again after a crummy start, and Harrington has played well enough to be better than someone who doesn’t lose you a game at QB. Last week Miami had -3 yards rushing and still won thanks to an increasingly opportunistic defense that scored 2 TDs. Detroit is mistakenly perceived as being good on Thanksgiving Day, but they’re actually 1-4 in the last 5. In that time the Lions have been terrible and this might just be their worst team yet. There’s a complete void of leadership in Detroit, and sooner or later people are going to start demanding accountability from Coach Rod Marinelli, who preaches discipline and doing a job right every time. This team makes more mistakes, both physical and mental, than any team not wearing silver and black. Come to think of it, maybe silver isn’t such a good color for an NFL team. Joey gets sweet redemption; Detroit gets closer to the #1 overall pick. Miami 27, Detroit 17.
Tampa Bay (#27) at Dallas (#8)
This game presents the Cowboys with an excellent opportunity to seize control of their playoff destiny. It also presents them with a classic letdown game, sandwiched between a huge win over the previously unbeaten Colts and their upcoming divisional battle with the rival Giants. Tampa’s offense is finally starting to come together, and QB Bruce Gradkowski appears to be developing chemistry with WR Joey Galloway. Rookie RT Jeremy Trueblood played much better last week, and the Bucs will need continued improvement across the entire line against a very fast, in-your-face Cowboys defense. Good matchup in this game of mobile, inexperienced QBs that are both playing better than expected. Tony Romo and the Cowboys have the better supporting cast and running game, and the Bucs run D is nothing special. If this game weren’t on Thursday in Dallas, I’d probably pick the upset, but I’m expecting to fight the tryptophan while watching the Cowboys win 24-20.
Denver (#6) at Kansas City (#10)
Pity the Denver defense: last week they faced TD machine Ladanian Tomlinson and the Chargers, while this week they draw Larry Johnson and the Chiefs. That’s the two most effective RBs in the game in consecutive weeks, in divisional games no less. The Broncos own RB corps is banged up and clearly missing LT Matt Lepsis. There’s a growing sentiment amongst Broncos fans to replace QB Jake Plummer with hotshot rookie Jay Cutler, but that’s a case of misplaced blame. Denver has no reliable threat at TE or 3rd WR, and that hampers the offense much more than Plummer’s occasional brain lapses. The Chiefs did nothing but run the ball last week and barely squeaked past Oakland. QB Trent Green is going to have to complete more than 9 passes if the Chiefs want to score more than about 10 points, and Denver’s secondary and LBs won’t make that easy. This is a huge game for playoff status for both teams. Being at home, at night, in a game that their owner desperately demanded for years, gives the Chiefs the edge. Kansas City 31, Denver 27.
Sunny Games
Pittsburgh (#16) at Baltimore (#4)
Pittsburgh is showing signs of life, and last week’s come from behind win in Cleveland proved you cannot count out a defending champion. Baltimore keeps chugging along and looking better every week. I really like the way the Ravens match up against the Steelers; it’s almost as if Baltimore is designed specifically to beat them. You beat the Steelers D by hammering the run up the gut and throwing to the TE and WRs on crossing routes. Guess what the Ravens offense does well? The Steelers offense has struggled all year with turnovers and getting WRs open downfield. Guess at what the Ravens D excels? Ravens PR/KR P.J. Sam has been great lately, giving the offense a short field and playing to the strength of their defense. Pittsburgh gave up a KR for a TD last week and needed a furious 4th quarter rally to overcome all their errors. They’re not going to get 18 first downs in the 4th quarter against this Ravens D. Baltimore buries the Steelers 31-17.
Chicago (#2) at New England (#5)
Attention Bears fans: this game is the best indicator of just how good your team really is. Beating up on the NFC is one thing; the Patriots are the last remaining test before the playoffs. New England stops the run quite well, and the Bears are near the bottom in yards per carry. The Patriots actually have more sacks than the vaunted Bears D, which means trouble for Bears QB Rex Grossman, who has not shown he can handle a heavy rush. Chicago is becoming more and more reliant on their defense and special teams to put points on the board. That works against most teams, but it won’t against the Patriots. The Chicago offense is going to have to outscore the New England offense, and that’s asking a lot of a team with a very streaky young QB and a running game that sputters against attack-style defenses like the Patriots. The Bears will sorely miss nickel back Ricky Manning, suspended for inciting an off-season melee. New England wins the potential (but unlikely) Super Bowl preview 20-15.
Clear but Seasonably Cool Games
New Orleans (#14) at Atlanta (#19)
Atlanta is plummeting downward, and their numerous injuries on defense and Mike Vick’s spotty accuracy are taking most of the blame. But the Falcons own one of the strangest statistical oddities of recent years; they lead the league in rushing by almost 30 yards per game, yet only 8 teams have fewer rushing TDs. The Falcons have just 2 rushing TDs shorter than 22 yards, tied for worst in the league. For a team to do something so exceptionally well and yet not actually have much to show for it is downright freakish. The Saints are also slumping, though pretty much all their issues are on defense. New Orleans doesn’t stop teams on 1st down, giving up almost 6 yards per 1st down snap over their last two games. They also don’t force turnovers, while their offense has been coughing the ball up like a sick alley cat. If Atlanta loses, they have very little realistic chance at the playoffs. New Orleans is a game better right now but they can ill afford a loss either and still remain positive about their chances. These teams have played some very entertaining, big scoring games in the past and this one looks no different because neither defense has any teeth. Atlanta wins 37-34.
Green Bay (#20) at Seattle (#13)
Seattle gets QB Matt Hasselbeck back, but he’s not the answer to their problems. The Seahawk D continues to get literally run over. From the “How sad is this” file: Seattle leads the NFC despite having a negative point ratio. The good news for Seattle is that Green Bay is coming off its worst game of the year and must start Brett Favre with an injured throwing elbow. Neither team takes good care of the ball, but Favre with a less-than-100% arm sounds like INT/TDs for Seattle. The Seahawks have been pretty effective at scoring via the long pass, and that should be there against the Packers toasty secondary as well. This is one of those games where I get the strong feeling the sleeping giant awakens, at least for one night. Seattle 33, Green Bay 17.
Cincinnati (#12) at Cleveland (#24)
The Bengals probably saved their season by beating the Saints last week, but it wasn’t a particularly encouraging win. Saints QB Drew Brees threw for over 500 yards despite losing his top WR in the first quarter, and the Bengals special teams were lousy. Cleveland is actually playing decent football, having lost just one game all season by more than 10 points against a pretty tough schedule. Their special teams are consistently outstanding, and the defense ranks in the upper half of pretty much all categories. The Browns major weakness has been converting scoring chances, as they rank 31st in the NFL in scoring TDs on drives that cross midfield. Bengals WR Chad Johnson is finally deserving of the considerable media attention, and he should keep that up against a Browns secondary starting its #4 and 5 preseason CBs. Cincy’s D gives up points in bunches, and the Browns passing game is starting to click. I like the Browns to avenge their only big loss of the season; they’re good enough to start winning a close game or two. Cleveland 30, Cincinnati 28.
Jacksonville (#10) at Buffalo (#22)
Last week Buffalo gave up a record-tying 22 completions in a row and still won. How does that happen? They didn’t give up a touchdown pass, and they did a great job not allowing yards after the catch. Jacksonville is no threat to complete even 10 in a row, not with the chronic dropsies of their WRs and the occasional scattershot delivery of QB David Garrard. What the Jaguars can do, and what the Buffalo defense struggles with, is run between the tackles and making strong cutbacks. Losing S Donovan Darius (again) will hurt the Jags defense, but their strong front 4 will be a handful for an injury-shuffled Bills OL. Buffalo QB JP Losman seldom strings together strong games, and last week he and WR Lee Evans were outstanding. All the prevailing winds point to the Jaguars cruising here. Jacksonville 17, Buffalo 10.
Cold November Rain Games
NY Giants (#11) at Tennessee (#23)
The banged up Giants head into Nashville to play a Titans team that is running the ball at will. Since Vince Young took over at QB, the Titans are 3rd in the NFL in rushing. That strikes me as counterintuitive, as Young still struggles with passing accuracy and the Titans lack talent at WR, so it’s not like they’re getting huge holes thanks to the passing game. What that tells me is they are both committed to the run and quite good at it. Giants QB Eli Manning should have been yanked in their Monday night loss, though it’s hard to imagine backup Jared Lorenzen doing any better than Eli’s dreadful performance. That highlights the ongoing problems with depth for New York. They need all their starts playing at the top of their game to win, and the past few weeks they haven’t gotten that from their franchise QB. The Titans don’t have a great pass rush or secondary, but they have been improving. Tennessee is 2-1 against the NFC and I like them to make it 3-1. Titans 23, Giants 21.
Philadelphia (#21) at Indianapolis (#3)
The Eagles turn to Jeff Garcia at QB, facing a Colts D that records a lot of pressures without getting a great deal of sacks. Garcia is a bad joke at QB, but he’s not going to be the reason the Eagles gets smoked in this game. Peyton Manning tears apart defenses that lack speed and don’t control the middle of the line of scrimmage, two things that fit Philly’s D to a T. The Eagles would have a chance at beating the Colts secondary over the top with McNabb, but Garcia can’t throw the ball with any reliable zip or accuracy longer than about 15 yards. These are the two least effective run defenses in the league in terms of allowing 1st downs, and Philly averages almost 5 yards per carry. If Coach Andy Reid can commit to the run, something he’s shown no inclination of doing in years, the Eagles should keep it close enough to keep the gamblers interested. Indianapolis 36, Philadelphia 16.
Early Ice Storm Games
San Francisco (#17) at St. Louis (#26)
The 49ers defense is finally starting to play like an actual NFL unit, particularly on 3rd down. In the past 3 games (all wins) the Niners D has allowed just a 29% 3rd down conversion rate, lowering their rate from over 50% in the prior 6 weeks. They’ve also been a much improved OL sine Larry Allen returned from injury. RB Frank Gore is thankful indeed, and so is QB Alex Smith, who’s getting knocked on his keister a lot less frequently. The Rams haven’t won in 6 weeks and got completely dominated by Carolina last week. St. Louis is in the bottom 5 over the last 6 weeks in lots of meaningful measuring sticks: yards per carry, 3rd down conversions, completion % allowed, time of possession, turnovers forced, and yards allowed per 1st down snap. Despite all that, this looks like a huge gambling trap game, with the seemingly inferior Rams favored by most books by at least 5 points at home. I’m thinking the bookies are trying to draw the money to the Rams to clean up big, but the fairly large spread makes me think I’m probably thinking too much. Rams 24, 49ers 17.
Oakland (#30) at San Diego (#1)
I’m going to purposely ignore Tomlinson TD mania and choose to focus instead on two other reasons why San Diego is the best team in the NFL and should stay that way the rest of the season. The first is the progression of their offensive line, particularly the young tackles Marcus McNeill and Shane Olivea. The unheralded line consistently makes downfield blocks for LT, and they also do a great job of keeping QB Philip Rivers’ uniform very clean. The second reason the Bolts are superior is that Head Coach (and my frequent, longtime whipping boy) Marty Schottenheimer appears to finally grasp the concept that the only part of the final score that matters is which team has more points. He’s no longer trying to slow the game down or so genuinely hurt when his defense gives up lots of points. They’ve given up at least 3 TDs in their last 5 games, but they’re 4-1. It’s that kind of sea change that brought Brian Billick a Super Bowl title in Baltimore, albeit in the complete opposite direction. Oakland is no threat to score 3 TDs against anyone, though I don’t expect LT to pick up more than 2 TDs this week against the Raiders defense. San Diego 27, Oakland 9.
Houston (#28) at NY Jets (#15)
Both teams lost at home last week, killing any positive momentum they had built up. Houston QB David Carr tied an NFL record with 22 straight completions, but it’s not the great accomplishment it first appears. Only 10 of those produced 1st downs and none wound up in the end zone. The Jets still have a terrible run defense, and I’m getting tired of hearing about the greatness of LB Jonathan Vilma. Yes he’s very fast and plays in a scheme that doesn’t suit their personnel, but here’s a very telling stat about Vilma: he leads the league, by nearly 2 per game, in assisted tackles. That means one of two things. Either he’s not able to bring a guy down without help, or he’s the second guy in on the tackle to finish up somebody else’s dirty work. That is not greatness, it is competence made to look better by surrounding incompetence. Houston’s real downfall is the inability to generate turnovers, tied for 31st in the league. They also don’t generate a lot of pass rush, and giving Jets QB Chad Pennington time to survey is bad news for the defense. New York Jets 29, Houston 20.
Arizona (#31) at Minnesota (#25)
Arizona can’t run the ball; Minnesota has the best run D in the league. Minnesota can’t throw the ball; Arizona has a poor pass D and is now missing its top pass rusher, Bert Berry. These teams have combined for 6 wins, 2 of them over Detroit. I have a hard time justifying any prediction in this game, because these two teams play below expectation so frequently. I like the matchup of Arizona’s pass offense against a Vikings D that gives up lots of completions and misses lots of tackles. On a whim, Arizona 20, Minnesota 17.
Drinking Wine From a Box in the Dorm Room Game
Notre Dame at USC
Last year’s game was an instant classic and cemented the legend of Matt Leinart as one of the greatest collegiate QBs of all time. This year, Irish QB Brady Quinn hopes to put his name on that lofty pantheon. This should be an offensive scorefest, as both teams feature significantly better offenses than defenses. The lack of speed in the Notre Dame secondary and LB corps is going to be their downfall. USC gets the home-field benefit, plus the advantage of having the better placekicker. I also can’t ignore the karma of USC great Marcus Allen picking games for RealGM, either. Trojans 40, Irish 37.
