Don't miss your chance for football betting at BetUS.com. As America's #1 sportsbook, BetUS offers the most up-to-date betting lines & odds for all your betting needs.
Football Meteorology For Week 14
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 8th December, 2006 - 12:38 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
RealGM Search
The weather gods were angry this week here in West Michigan, and it apparently wasn’t enough to dump 8 inches of snow and ice on the prediction center. No, they felt the need to punish my powers of prediction and left me with a 7-9 mark last week. That’s the first losing week of the season, thanks to my cloudiness on picking upsets and surprises.
It will also be the last losing week of the season. Games in domes and more temperate climates dominate the schedule this week, and no severe weather or bitter cold is expected anywhere in the eastern half of the country. That makes for some excellent tailgating, and also a pretty sunny outlook on my game picks.
The playoff picture remains awfully cloudy in terms of the wild cards. Right now in the AFC I like the Bengals and Jets, while the NFC looks like Atlanta and the winner of this week’s Carolina-NY Giants matchup. But don’t rule out the Vikings just yet, even though they’re a game behind.
Sunny games New Orleans (#8) at Dallas (#5): Both teams are 8-4, but the numbers show one team is clearly more meritorious. The Saints sport the #1 passing offense in the league, but rank in the bottom third in rushing, run defense, adjusted pass defense, and turnover margin. The Cowboys look great across the board: their lowest rating in any category is 12th in pass defense, and they are in the top 8 in every other stat category. That’s a balanced team that doesn’t need big plays to win or opponents to beat themselves. Saints RB Reggie Bush finally had the breakout game his fantasy owners have long been expecting, but the speed of the Dallas defense should contain him. On the flip side, Dallas RB Marion Barber has scored 2 TDs 3 weeks in a row, and the Saints can offer little resistance. The way the Saints can win this game is by throwing over the top of the defense, and though Dallas CB Anthony Henry has played quite well lately, the surprising lack of a pass rush and the Saints strong pass protection and depth at WR will offer them chances. This is the type of game the Cowboys have struggled with the past few years, a good opponent in Dallas after an emotional win, though since Romo took over at QB it hasn’t been an issue. I just have a real hard time seeing any team win 6 of 7 games in this strange season, even a team as well rounded and talented as the Cowboys. New Orleans 33, Dallas 24.
Indianapolis (#2) at Jacksonville (#10): The Colts face another divisional battle against a team that matches up with them fairly well. Jacksonville’s RB tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor is among the most effective in the NFL, and the Colts pathetic run defense still shows no signs of improvement. The Jags also have great size at WR, though they don’t always catch the ball or get open very well. Colts WR Marvin Harrison averages 9 catches for 116 yards over the last 8 meetings, and Jacksonville is starting backups at 4 positions on the defense, including CB and S. Indy’s baffling loss of their vaunted pass rush will present problems against mobile QB David Garrard, but the Jags inconsistency at WR and QB is problematic. The Jaguars have to win to have any realistic chance at the playoffs, as they have the worst AFC record of any of the combatants and would thus lose tiebreakers. Indy has mailed in games like this in prior years, and the Jags defensive front is talented enough to make them pay if the Colts don’t come out firing on all cylinders. The Jaguars are an elite team at home, and they are the pick. Jacksonville 20, Indianapolis 17.
Baltimore (#4) at Kansas City (#11): Both teams come in off disappointing losses. Baltimore could get nothing going offensively against Cincy, although their defense was very strong, save one gadget play. Kansas City threw all over the Browns, but couldn’t seal the game and lost thanks to a very green backup QB rallying a lesser-talented team. That’s not a good sign for the Chiefs, nor is the increasing workload of RB Larry Johnson. He’s been quite good and shows strong durability, but he looked fatigued late in the Browns game, and with their OL injuries Johnson increasingly has to make his own holes and break tackles to be successful. Baltimore’s defense thrives against that, and their secondary looked great against a much more talented corps of WRs last week. Still, Kansas City in December is an awful tough place to secure a win, particularly when the Chiefs need the game infinitely more than the Ravens. I’ll take the Chiefs at home in a physical, fast-played 16-14 win.
Denver (#12) at San Diego (#1): The Jay Cutler experiment didn’t exactly work out well for the Broncos, who gave up 5 turnovers (3 by Cutler) in losing their 3rd in a row for the first time in 3 years. I’m reminded of the last time an entrenched Broncos starter was replaced by a hotshot rookie. Tommy Maddox replaced an injured John Elway back then, and the Broncos realized almost right away they’d made a huge mistake. At least then they knew #7 was coming back. Another concern is how many tackles the Denver CBs are making and how few plays their talented LBs are making. San Diego’s potent attack using both the run and the pass is not a good matchup for a team with an anemic front 4 and a struggling LB corps. Ladanian Tomlinson scored 4 TDs in the first matchup, Philip Rivers was nearly unstoppable and got pressured just twice, and since then the Chargers have only been playing better. Denver’s lack of receiving weapons other than Javon Walker means the Broncos will have trouble attacking a San Diego pass defense highly reliant on their pass rush to cover for their DBs. A dinged up Tatum Bell at RB won’t help either. San Diego rolls 30-15.
Seasonably mild games NY Giants (#18) at Carolina (#17): Major playoff implications for two teams that appear to have no business making the playoffs. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is questionable with an injury, but his 4th quarter play has been worse than questionable the past few weeks. Delhomme’s 4th quarter QB rating is nearly 80 points lower than last year. If he can’t go, Chris Weinke gets the nod for the first time since the Panthers went 1-15. CB Ken Lucas and S Mike Minter are also questionable, bad news against a Giants team that has protected QB Eli Manning very well, no sacks allowed in two weeks. Manning has made some highly questionable throws and decisions in key situations this year too, and there’s still lots of fire to the smoke coming from the NY locker room. The Panthers have been riding hills all season, whereas the Giants have rappelled from the Rockies to Death Valley. Last week the G-Men at least looked like they had a road map and travel plan out of the depths; with Weinke or a lame Delhomme at QB, the Panthers are following a dry stream down the hill. New York re-establishes its playoff footing with a 24-20 win.
Buffalo (#22) at NY Jets (#13): There’s a lot of different ways to break down this matchup, but the angle I prefer has little to do with football. The upcoming movie “We Are Marshall” is about to come out, and guess where Jets QB Chad Pennington went to school…Pennington rarely gets mentioned among the best QBs because he lacks the big arm or any semblance of mobility, but there’s not a QB in the league, not even Peyton Manning, who better takes advantage of what the defense gives him or quickly figuring out what the defense is giving him. The Jets are also getting as strong of G-C-G run blocking as any team in the league, and the Bills just lost LB Angelo Crowell, one of their best tacklers. Buffalo has played well, scoring at least 20 points 4 weeks in a row, but they almost never score in the 1st quarter, where they rank 30th in point differential. The Jets are #2 in that category, and it’s tough to come from behind against a team that doesn’t beat itself like the Jets. New York 24, Buffalo 17.
New England (#6) at Miami (#19): Miami finally crashed back to the reality that they’re just not a real good football team last week. New England played uninspired and uncharacteristically mistake prone but still beat the Lions despite numerous penalties and an off day from QB Tom Brady. Miami continues to struggle establishing a consistent run game behind an OL that needs a major offseason overhaul, and it won’t be any easier against a Patriots team #3 against the run. New England has been forcing lots of turnovers the past few weeks, and Miami will no doubt oblige with a couple of their own. But there’s an even bigger reason why the Patriots should win this game handily. Over the last 4 seasons, Tom Brady is 17-3 in weeks 14 through 17, while his Dolphins counterpart, Joey Harrington, is 4-15. Quarterbacks and run defense win games in December, and New England is vastly superior in both. Patriots 30, Dolphins 10.
Seattle (#7) at Arizona (#29): Signs of life in Arizona: QB Matt Leinart has been sacked just twice in the last 3 games, and RB Edgerrin James posted the first 100-yard game for the Cards in 37 games. Rookie RG Deuce Lutui has proven a major upgrade, and his USC teammate Leinart clearly looks more comfortable feeling the rush. Seattle’s defense proved once again at Denver they will give up big plays and miss tackles to pedestrian talent, and the Cards feature perhaps the best WR trio in the league. Seattle has been sailing thanks to their kicker and the second-half heroics of QB Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has apparently acquired the Bobby Hebert gene; play so badly in the first half that just being mediocre in the 2nd half makes you look great, and hope your defense and special teams can keep you close. The Seahawks have played that dangerous game quite well lately, but this week their porous defense will have to step up its game to pull it off once again. Expect lots of points and beau coup receiving stats on both sides. I’ll take Seattle 36-31 but an upset will not surprise me one bit.
Windy, blustery games: Philadelphia (#16) at Washington (#27): The Eagles caught a fresh wind in their win over Carolina, and this game looks to be the last winnable game on their schedule with Jeff Garcia at QB. Something has to give, as the Ethnic Slurs allow 7.4 yards per attempt, while Garcia has attempted just 9 passes (of 111 attempts) that went more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Washington has found a keeper in RB Ladell Betts, who has filled in more than admirably for the injured Clinton Portis. Last week he torched Atlanta for 155 yards, and the Eagles run defense is falling lower in the rankings by the week. Philly dominated the first matchup, but that was with McNabb healthy and the Skins in the midst of QB and CB chaos. Washington is playing definitive better with Betts and QB Jason Campbell, and their secondary keeps improving in run and short pass support. Because that’s the entire Philly offense, and the Ethnic Slurs don’t turn the ball over and play solid special teams, I like Washington at home to beat the Eagles 20-13.
Chicago (#3) at St. Louis (#24): Lost amidst all the media storm surrounding Bears QB Rex Grossman is the fact the Bears mighty defense tends to give up rushing yards in bunches and has become increasingly reliant on forcing turnovers to get off the field. Already missing S Mike Brown, now they lose another great player in DT Tommie Harris. Fortunately they have decent depth and no reason to rush him back. St. Louis continues to struggle, dropping 6 of 7 and looking worse in the process pretty much every week. Their OL is in shambles, QB Marc Bulger is unloading the ball too quickly to allow their talented WRs to make plays downfield, and their secondary can neither cover nor tackle well. This is a good test for Grossman, who despite all the consternation will absolutely not lose his starting job. A decent game against a lousy defense, away from the pressure of Soldier Field, could do wonders for both Rex and his team. St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over much and RB Stephen Jackson presents pass coverage issues for the Bears defense, but this is a game where the Bears could conceivably play poorly and still win handily. Chicago quiets the media maelstrom with a 27-17 road win.
Tennessee (#14) at Houston (#28): The Titans are 5-2 in their last 7 games. And though the credit is largely going to rookie QB Vince Young, the real credit goes to an unheralded offensive line. Young has been pressured only 7 times the last two weeks, sacked just twice, while the Titans have averaged over 5 yards per carry over their last 4 games. Houston somehow threw for negative yardage last week against the Raiders, and now they draw an improving Titans passing D. They’re improving because they replaced the ghastly Reynaldo Hill with Cortland Finnegan at CB opposite the very impressive Pacman Jones. Houston has turned their one offensive threat, WR Andre Johnson, into a glamorous possession receiver. In the last 6 weeks the speedy Johnson has one catch longer than 25 yards, and 26 of his 38 catches in those games have gone for less than 10 yards. That’s not using your weapons wisely, because no other receiver on their team gets open with any reliability. The Texans do have some impressive rookies playing quite well, particularly LB Demeco Ryans, who is second in the league in tackles. He’ll be busy once again as the Titans run at, around, and through a porous Texans DL. The first meeting was quite close, with 3 David Carr turnovers the difference in a Titans win. This is one of the dreaded “gambler trap” games, where the seemingly inferior team is favored at home. I actually buy that, because I don’t believe the youthful Titans can keep playing so well. Houston in a mild surprise, 27-24.
Atlanta (#15) at Tampa Bay (#30): Atlanta desperately needs to beat the weak stepchild of their division, and they can learn how by watching game film of the Titans. Falcons QB Michael Vick is undeniably talented at running and at throwing deep balls, but struggles with pretty much everything else. The Titans have a similar QB in Vince Young, another guy with a lot of unusual talent but major holes in the “traditional” QB role. The Titans have done an outstanding job of putting him in position to succeed, something the Falcons have yet to figure out with Vick in his years there. This is an excellent week to work on that, because Tampa’s defense isn’t very good at anything and the Bucs offense has major issues as well. While at VA Tech, Vick ran lots of option rollouts and bootlegs with WRs crossing the field deep with great success. When you’ve got skill and speed at RB like the Falcons have with Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood and a decent OL, it’s worth trying more plays like that. Tampa has dominated this series at home, and Vick has only beaten the Bucs once, but this is perhaps the worst Bucs team since Trent Dilfer’s rookie season. Atlanta runs all over Tampa Bay 31-13.
Oakland (#32) at Cincinnati (#9): Oakland lost last week despite allowing negative net passing yardage, thanks to two special teams TDs and 5 turnovers. Their embattled OL has been playing better, though they must start rookie Paul McQuistan at LG this week. He was benched after playing miserably the first two games, and now must deal with a Cincinnati defense that has suddenly emerged as a formidable unit. The Bengals have given up just one TD in the last two games and looks nothing like the unit that was repeatedly torched in weeks 8-10. Rookie CB Jonathan Joseph has played very well in coverage, and backup LBs Caleb Miller and Landon Johnson have vastly improved the run defense. Oakland’s defense keeps playing hard and is one of the NFL’s best overall units, but they’ll be challenged by the Bengals’ depth at WR and the accuracy of QB Carson Palmer. Don’t look now but this Bengals team is making a run eerily similar to Pittsburgh’s in 2005. If the Bengals patchwork OL can hold off the fierce Raiders pass rush they’ll win easily, but if that unit struggles this game will be a struggle for Cincy to win too. Cincinnati 24, Oakland 10.
Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald storm games: Green Bay (#26) at San Francisco (#25): There’s only one more weekend before Christmas. If you are planning on watching this game and you don’t live in either Bay area represented, go do some shopping or do something charitable instead of sitting through this weak matchup of two of the least interesting teams. 49ers RB Frank Gore should have a very good day, as the Niners typically run left behind T Jonas Jennings, G Larry Allen, and FB Moran Norris. That runs right at the almost comedically run-defense inept Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and S Marquand Manuel, who is perhaps the worst free agent signee of the last offseason. Both teams have lousy turnover differentials, lousy pass defense, and terrible point differentials. Green Bay always seems to beat San Fran, having won 12 of the last 14 meetings, and Favre has his 2nd highest career passer rating against the Niners. In a game that could hit double digits in turnovers, punts, and dumb penalties, Green Bay prevails 33-28.
Minnesota (#20) at Detroit (#31): Detroit played its best game of the season last week and still lost to New England. Minnesota couldn’t win last week despite holding the Bears to 107 yards, doubling the time of possession, and forcing 5 turnovers. Vikings QB Brad Johnson was awful, throwing 4 INTs and getting yanked. His primary backup, the barely adequate Brooks Bollinger, is likely out with a shoulder injury, which means if Johnson flops once again, the Vikings have to turn to very raw rookie Tarvaris Jackson. Their weak WRs have struggled to get open all season, which makes the strong performance of RB Chester Taylor all the more impressive. Lions QB Jon Kitna can relate to throwing bad INTs, as he’s thrown at least one in 10 straight games. In the last meeting the Vikings returned two INTs for TDs. The Lions struggle to run the ball to help loosen up the pass defense, and Minnesota absolutely stuffs the run better than anyone. Minnesota has dominated Detroit the last few years, winning 17 of the last 20 meetings and has never lost in Ford Field. They won’t this year either, not when backup QB Josh McCown is the Lions #3 WR. Minnesota wins, only because someone has to, 20-13.
Cleveland (#23) at Pittsburgh (#21): Great rivalry game that will feature lots of backup players at key positions thanks to injuries. Browns backup QB Derek Anderson was the hero last week with his improbable scamper in overtime and strong throwing in the second half. They’ll need lots more of that against a Steelers defense that still brings loads of pressure despite missing S Troy Polamalu. Embattled Browns QB Charlie Frye and his badly bruised wrist showed great leadership on the sidelines in the upset over Kansas City. What also helped were zero 2nd half penalties and converting their last 5 3rd down conversions. Pittsburgh will be missing WR Hines Ward as well, and their offense frequently bogs down without him. In 8 meetings in Pittsburgh since their return, the Browns are just 2-6 and the average score is 24-14. That sure looks like a good predictor to me. Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 14, though don’t be surprised if one of the teams scores either 33 or 34, as has been done in each of the last 4 games in Pittsburgh.
