If Favre comes back, he better stick it out for a full season whether he starts, is a back-up, or gets benched several games into the season.
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You know how sometimes regular programming gets delayed or abbreviated by unexpectedly long games or breaking news? This week’s edition of Football Meteorology suffers that same fate, but not for any presidential address or turnover-plagued Lions game. It just dawned on me that Christmas is less than two weeks away and I probably need to get some shopping done. If you’re reading this and still aren’t done shopping, once you are finished reading I suggest you hit the mall or your favorite merchant websites.
Last week saw a return to forecast accuracy, with an 11-5 mark and three games where I was within a FG of the final score. It’s looking seasonably mild across much of the country this week and weekend, so the weather won’t be as big a factor as it often can be in mid-December. The forecast for football picks is pretty mild too; there are only three or four games where I don’t have a definitive idea of which team should win.
Sunny Games
Dallas (#7) at Atlanta (#13): Atlanta’s offense is predicated more on speed than any other NFL team. Lots of weeks that gives them a great advantage, but not this week. Dallas has great speed all over their defense, and it’s a disciplined speed that can keep QB Michael Vick in check. What should worry Bill Parcells is that Vick throws a great deep ball, and his secondary is flat-out awful in defending the long pass. If the Falcons WRs can actually catch the ball, a skill that often escapes them, they should be able to score enough to win. Dallas got embarrassed by New Orleans, and it wasn’t just the big plays the Cowboys D gave up. Other than Julius Jones’ 77 yard TD scamper, the Dallas offense sputtered most of the night. The Falcons secondary is badly banged up and wasn’t that great to begin with, and their 2-game win streak looks much less impressive when you factor in that the opponents, WAS and TB, have two of the worst offenses in the league. I consider Dallas’ poor performance last week somewhat flukish, while I still can’t see how this Atlanta team is much better than the team that lost consecutive games to bottom feeders CLE and DET. Dallas rolls 31-20.
Jacksonville (#9) at Tennessee (#11): This game is all about dichotomy. Jacksonville is a dominant team at home, but on the road they’re just 2-4 and give up almost twice as many points per game. Tennessee has won 4 in a row, three of them on 4th quarter rallies led by rookie QB Vince Young. That’s dichotomously impressive and scary; impressive that such a young team that started 0-5 can string together good wins, scary in that it’s darn near impossible to keep that going. I’ve got nothing but positive things to say about Jeff Fisher and his Titans lately, but Jacksonville sure looked like their Dr. Jekyll mode from last week is their real persona. Even without RB Fred Taylor, the Jaguars have enough weaponry, and also defensive toughness, to slow down the Titans, who still lack the ability to throw the ball well. Jaguars 27, Titans 17.
Kansas City (#12) at San Diego (#1): There’s a ton of credit deserved in San Diego for assembling the NFL’s best overall team in 2006, but I want to single out offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. He’s convinced notoriously conservative coach Marty Schottenheimer to utilize all their weapons creatively; much like Cameron did as Antwan Randle El’s collegiate coach at Indiana. Cameron deserves serious consideration for any upcoming coaching vacancies. Kansas City’s offense is overly dependant on running back Larry Johnson making something out of nothing and on TE Tony Gonzalez to make all their big plays in the passing game. Teams with good receiving TEs tend to defend other ones well, and the Chargers have a great one in Antonio Gates. I really like Philip Rivers over Trent Green in the QB matchup, and the Chargers have torched better defenses than KC’s. The Chiefs are 2-4 on the road and haven’t beaten an AFC team away from Arrowhead. The imminent death of beloved owner Lamar Hunt might provide them the needed spark, but because it’s a road game and the team has dropped two ugly losses in a row where they haven’t remotely resembled a playoff-caliber team, I just don’t see it happening. Thoughts and prayers to the Hunt family and the Chiefs family; Mr. Hunt is no small part of why the NFL is the great league it is today, and he will be missed. San Diego 30, Kansas City 24.
Cincinnati (#6) at Indianapolis (#5): The Colts should be more than a little concerned that Coach Tony Dungy has a career record of 8-14 in December against teams with winning records. That becomes 13-22 when the playoffs are thrown in. The Bengals are finally making the run most of us expected of them all year, and their stark improvement in pass defense and stuffing 1st down rushing attempts (just 2.2 ypc over their last 4 games) proves they are more than just a flashy offense. The Colts, alas, are not; their run defense is nearing historic proportions of ineptness and has no real ability to get significantly better this year. Backup C Eric Ghiaciuc and LT Andrew Whitworth have filled in well for the Bengals, and the Colts have struggled all season with passing games that utilize 3 or more WRs like the Bengals often do. All the signs point to Cincinnati rolling on, but to discount the ability of Manning, Harrison, Wayne, et al. is a major mistake. I’ve gone back and forth on this game several times, but I’ll settle on the Bengals on the basis that they need the game more and are a better balanced team. Of course that was true of Dallas against New Orleans and look what happened to them. What the heck, sometimes it pays to not fight the wind. Cincinnati 38, Indianapolis 34.
Fair Skies Games
Miami (#17) at Buffalo (#19): This just in: The Bills found themselves a QB in JP Losman, who is making much quicker reads and better decisions with the ball. Better late than never for a team with marquee talent at RB (Willis McGahee) and WR (Lee Evans). Both these teams are 6-7 but probably playing better football the last month than every NFC team except New Orleans. It’s not a coincidence that these are two of the healthiest teams in the league, in terms of lost starters and length of injury reports. Miami’s defense is in full swagger shutdown mode, allowing the fewest 1st downs over the last 4 games and getting impact play from S Yeremiah Bell and CB Andre Goodman that was missing early this season. Buffalo dominated the first meeting in Miami, but since then Miami switched QBs and found OL cohesion. This shapes up to be a defensive struggle, and I like Buffalo’s running game and K Rian Lindell more than their Miami counterparts. Buffalo finds .500 with a 13-10 victory.
NY Jets (#16) at Minnesota (#20): This shapes up to be an elimination game, as both teams must win out to have any realistic playoff shot. Minnesota held Detroit to negative run yardage last week, and I was impressed with the range and toughness of their LBs. The Jets are coming off a bad loss in which they didn’t look sharp, and they need to be on top of their game to win this one. The Vikings WRs have been blocking well and their OL gets to the second level as well as any in football, a real problem for an undersized Jets defense. The Jets have struggled all season against tough defenses, though they do exploit coverage breakdowns very well, and the Vikings have had their fair share of secondary lapses. The Jets just don’t seem to match up well with the Vikings to me. Minnesota 27, New York 17.
Denver (#15) at Arizona (#24): This is a more interesting game than the records or team rankings would have you believe. Two rookie QBs leading teams heading in very opposite directions square off in Glendale. Denver is all but out of the AFC playoff picture thanks to a 4-game losing streak, and the locker room is turning ugly. Arizona is the hottest team in the NFC West, having won 3 of 4 and finally establishing a running game and giving Matt Leinart time to throw. Denver isn’t losing because of new QB Jay Cutler, but he’s not doing anything better than the guy he replaced, Jake Plummer. The Broncos celebrated LBs have not played well, and their punt and kick return units are plummeting down the rankings. This game features two of the best individual matchups of the weekend: Cards WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Broncos CB Champ Bailey, each among the top 5 at their positions, and kickers Neil Rackers (Cards) and Jason Elam (Broncos). This Cardinals team is the one I thought they’d be all season, but the Broncos have a tough secondary and their losses have all been to better overall teams. Denver is the better overall team in this game, and I think that will carry them as long as Cutler takes care of the ball. Denver plugs the hole for this week with a 27-24 road win.
Wintry Mix Games
Houston (#27) at New England (#8): I think it’s safe to say that Houston just simply owns Jacksonville for no tangible reason. The Texans have two impressive wins over the powerful Jaguars, yet are 2-9 against the rest of the league. Need a reason why? QB David Carr leads the league in completion percentage and ranks 13th in total attempts, yet he’s tied for 24th in TD passes and tied for 27th in yards per attempt and has thrown just 3 TDs in their last 9 games, one in their last 7. They are the perfect example of why teams play bend-but-don’t-break defense. WR Andre Johnson leads the league in receptions, yet he ranks 54th out of 56th in yards per catch for WRs with at least 35 catches. New England has played two uncharacteristically terrible games in a row, but even if they only bring their “C” game, Houston won’t be able to exploit their chronically injured secondary. New England plays their last regular season home game, contests in which they are 12-3 in their last 15 and deliberately lost last year for a better playoff matchup. They need a win to have any shot at a 1st round bye, but the Pats would be hard-pressed to lose this game if they tried. New England unleashes the fury and wins 40-13.
Pittsburgh (#21) at Carolina (#22): The two biggest disappointments meet, headed in opposite directions. The injury-ravaged Panthers have dropped 3 in a row and 5 of 7 and have not looked good in any aspect of their game. Pittsburgh pasted the lowly Bucs and Browns despite missing several key performers by returning to “Steeler football”, running the ball and forcing turnovers and pressuring the QB on defense. Carolina has been badly struggling in protecting their QB and opening holes in the running game. Pittsburgh has been awful on the road, but Carolina hasn’t beaten a halfway decent team at home in two months. These Steelers won’t make the AFC playoffs, but they’d be a legit threat to win at least one NFC playoff game. The Steelers find .500 and continue the painful declawing of the Panthers’ dreams, 24-17.
Washington (#28) at New Orleans (#4): Saints QB Drew Brees is on pace to break the badly overrated, anger-challenged Dan Marino’s legendary 1984 single-season passing yardage record. He spreads the ball around better than any QB, his OL affords him great time and passing lanes, and they can always rely on Deuce McAlister and Reggie Bush to run the ball if needed. Washington sports the worst pass defense in the league, giving up the most TDs, highest yards per completion, and recording the fewest sacks and INTs. New Orleans’ one major flaw is their propensity for turning the ball over, but these Skins are the worst team in NFL history at forcing turnovers. Coach Joe Gibbs’ stubborn commitment to antiquated run schemes might actually keep the Skins closer than expected against a Saints D that doesn’t always stay at home, but this game is a no-brainer pick. New Orleans 37, Washington 17.
San Francisco (#26) at Seattle (#10): Seattle inexplicably played awful in losing to Arizona last week and blowing a shot at solidifying the #2 seed in the NFC. San Francisco looked completely overmatched at home by a below-average Green Bay team, continuing a 3-game bender in which they’ve very much played like the team ranked 31st in point differential. One of those games was a fluke, one an aberration. Though the Seahawks will miss WR and struggle to slow down 49ers RB Frank Gore, Seattle has too many weapons and too much to play for, plus the advantage of being at home and playing at night, two huge bonuses in their favor. Seattle in a yawner, 33-17.
Cleveland (#29) at Baltimore (#2): Baltimore answered any questions about their legitimacy last weekend, becoming just the second road team to win in Kansas City in a decade. This game highlights the importance of front office continuity and good drafting. The Ravens continue to have great success in all rounds of the draft and free agency under Browns legend Ozzie Newsome as GM. This year’s great finds include 6th round safety Dawan Landry and 2nd round G Chris Chester, both of whom have already proven solid starters. On the flip side, the Browns have not one player taken in the 4th-7th rounds from 2002-2005 making any impact other than on the practice squad. The gulf of talent between these teams is astonishing, in terms of both top-end stars and overall roster depth. Cleveland typically rebounds well from pastings like they suffered last week, but they need a near-perfect game and several gifts from the Ravens to even stay close. Baltimore 36, Cleveland 13.
Hide in the Basement with Provisions Games
Detroit (#32) at Green Bay (#23): Detroit is playing out the string minus RB Kevin Jones, DTs Shaun Rogers and Shaun Cody, OL Damien Woody and Rex Tucker, and #2 CB Fernando Bryant. Those are 6 of the 10 most talented players on the team. Green Bay is not a good team, but they have better talent and favorable matchups at QB, RB, WR, DE, and LB. The Packers have won 16-13 in both the last two meetings in Green Bay, and Detroit hasn’t won in Green Bay since 1991, with the average score being 30-14. I believe in the cliché that streaks are made to be broken, but not in this case. Green Bay wins 30-14.
St. Louis (#25) at Oakland (#31): The Rams head to Oakland as losers in 7 of their last 8. Lucky for them, the Raiders have lost 6 in a row themselves. The Raiders just brought back WR Doug Gabriel to try and spark an offense that has scored more than two TDs in a game just once all year, a game which they lost. This is one of those games that if they didn’t play it, nobody would really notice. Oakland’s pass defense is quite good, and DE Derrick Burgess is the best sack man in the business. The Raiders get the nod, because the Rams defense and special teams are worse than Oakland’s anemic offense. Oakland 16, St. Louis 10.
Tampa Bay (#30) at Chicago (#3): If ever there was a lock pick, it’s this game. Tampa Bay ranks very close to the bottom in every offensive statistic and keeps moving downward. Chicago no longer has the top defense without injured stars Tommie Harris and Mike Brown, but they still have more than enough talent to stymie the very best offenses. Tampa’s D struggles stopping the run, and their punt and kick coverage teams are vulnerable; the Bears continue to run effectively and rookie Devin Hester is having the best year ever by a return man. You’ll no doubt hear the overplayed stat about how dreadful the Bucs are in cold weather, but this game could be played in Guadalajara in August and they still wouldn’t have a chance. Chicago 33, Tampa Bay 6.
