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Football Meteorology For Week 16
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 20th December, 2006 - 5:17 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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This weekend marks the first games technically taking place in winter. And even though it won’t be a white Christmas almost everywhere in the lower elevations, that doesn’t mean weather won’t play a factor. Windy conditions and lingering sogginess are expected over much of the Midwest and West Coast over the weekend, and that means turnovers and poor footing for cornerbacks.
Seasoned meteorologists will often cite December and January as the easiest months to accurately predict the weather. Pressure gradients are more stable and less rangy, cooler air means little chance of surprise precipitation, and air masses become larger and move slower. Picking football games, on the other hand, is often much more a challenge the last 2-3 weeks of the regular season than during the fall. Injuries, teams resting starters for the playoffs or auditioning players for next season, eliminated teams losing their vigor, all make for tougher pickings on the gridiron. So I’m quite happy with last week’s 10-6 mark and hoping Santa will bring me a 12-4 or better mark this weekend.
Sunny Games: New England (#5) at Jacksonville (#9): Last season New England deliberately lost its last game in order to match up with the Jaguars in the playoffs. The strategy worked when the Patriots bombarded Jacksonville. This is the payback game, and it shapes up well for Jacksonville in other regards too. The Patriots defense will be missing its top 3 players, and the Jaguars do a great job stuffing inside runs and flare passes to the backs, both staples of the Patriots offense. Throw in the fact that Jacksonville has to win to keep any shot at making the playoffs and how dominant they’ve been at home, and I really like the Jaguars in this one. Jacksonville 27, New England 17.
Baltimore (#2) at Pittsburgh (#15): In winning 5 of their last 6 games, the Steelers have shown the heart of a champion. They’ve also shown a newfound ability to take care of the football, with a +10 turnover margin in their wins. The one loss was to Baltimore, and the Pittsburgh turnover ratio in that game was -3. Baltimore’s defense is quietly the top scoring defense in the league, and they sacked Ben Roethlisberger 9 times in the last meeting. QB Steve McNair should be fine after injuring his hand last week. Baltimore’s kick and punt defense units rank in the top 10 over the last month, while the Steelers KR ranks 30th during that span. Baltimore is the better team, but it’s impossible to overestimate how badly Pittsburgh wants revenge for the 27-0 pasting in the first meeting, nor how much they want to win their last home game and keep any flicker of defending their title alive. Pittsburgh is the favorite at home for a reason. Steelers win 20-17.
Philadelphia (#13) at Dallas (#6): That Jeff Garcia is 3-1 as a starter for Philly is as much a shock to me as if Paris Hilton suddenly joined a convent. I have to give Garcia and Coach Andy Reid credit; they’ve done a great job of executing short and mid-range pass plays and worked Pro Bowl snubbed RB Brian Westbrook into the offense. Lots of motion and crossing routes means lots of trouble for the Cowboys secondary, which features one of the worst safety tandems in pass coverage I’ve ever seen. Their LBs aren’t much better in pass coverage, but both the LBs and the safeties are exceptional against the run and have the requisite speed to contain a shifty back like Westbrook and a scrambler like Garcia. They faced a similar type of offense last week in Atlanta, so the week-to-week adjustment is small, a real benefit. Even though Eagles S Brian Dawkins has been a monster lately, the Cowboys have too much offense between Terry Glenn, TO, Marion Barber and the steady Tony Romo at QB. Dallas avenges the earlier humbling with a 33-24 win.
San Diego (#1) at Seattle (#14): The Chargers have only one real chink in their armor, which is a propensity to miss tackles in the secondary and give up TD passes. Seattle has shown an ability to have a potent aerial attack, but so many dropped passes and blown blitz pickups leave it a long shot. The Seahawks are on pace to have the worst point differential for a division champion in NFL history, and it’s only going to get worse this week. Ladanian Tomlinson rewards his fantasy football owners, while the Seahawks put a good showing of their own in trying to match what their tackling-poor defense gives up. San Diego 37, Seattle 27.
Party Cloudy but Pleasantly Warm Games: Tennessee (#12) at Buffalo (#10): Since their bye week, Buffalo is 5-2 and the losses were by a combined 4 points to San Diego and Indianapolis, two of the best 3 teams in the league. Only 3 QBs have more TD passes than Bills QB JP Losman over the last 5 games while their own pass defense has greatly improved at preventing the big play. The Titans have won 5 in a row, including a game last week where they managed under 100 yards of offense. You can only win so many games despite having a vastly worse offense and defense, and the Titans seem to have a decade worth of those type wins this season. Their luck runs out in Buffalo. Bills 30, Titans 16.
Cincinnati (#8) at Denver (#11): That one of these teams is going to miss the playoffs in the AFC is a shame. Either of these teams would be no worse than the 3rd best team in the NFC and probably win at least one round. Denver rookie QB Jay Cutler took a nice developmental step forward last week, looking more poised and more confident in his WRs and feeling the rush instead of looking for it. The Bengals are licking their wounds after the Colts unleashed the fury, and this Cincy team lacks the veteran confidence and bravado on defense that’s often needed when trying to rebound in such a critical game. Denver has become scarily reliant on their CBs to make tackles lately, a very dangerous game to play with the talented depth that the Bengals offense brings. This game makes me refer to my “when in doubt” cheat sheet, on which it says, “Never pick against Jason Elam in Denver in a meaningful game.” I’m also struck by the fact that Cincy is just 2-9 in their last 11 games that are the second consecutive game on the road for them, as this one is. Granted that goes back to their inept years, but ‘tis the season of tradition. Denver 24, Cincinnati 21.
New Orleans (#7) at NY Giants (#19): Three great reasons why New Orleans will win this game:
1. They are 5-2 on the road, while the Giants are 3-4 at home and just 1-4 against NFC teams.
2. The Saints protect QB Drew Brees well, and Brees finds a variety of receivers better than anyone. The Giants are 30th in the league in defending deep passes (attempts longer than 15 yards downfield) and also rank 30th in stopping non-#1 WRs. Only 1 QB has hit more deep balls than Brees, and the Saints have 7 different receivers that have caught one, 3 more than any other team.
3. Saints DE Will Smith is one of the best pass rushers in the game, and his combo of speed and power gives him a huge advantage over ancient Giants LT Bob Whitfield. The other Saints DE, Charles Grant, is even quicker, and Giants QB Eli Manning is statuesque. Good for supermodels, not good for QBs with iffy OLs and temperamental receivers.
New Orleans 29, NY Giants 17.
NY Jets (#16) at Miami (#20): The Dolphins fans now understand what we Lions fans have known for years. Just when you think QB Joey Harrington has finally arrived, he has a game like the 0.0-rated clunker last week in which he got (rightfully) yanked for something called Cleo Lemon. He’s always struggled with defenses that bring pressure from multiple spots, something the blitz-happy Jets do quite well. Also of concern for Miami is the complete disappearance of WR Chris Chambers, who has caught just 4 of the last 20 passes thrown his way. Dolphins DE Jason Taylor is mounting a strong defensive MVP candidacy, and they’ll need Taylor to be at his absolute best to contain an offense which doesn’t do anything exceptionally well but also does nothing poorly. The Dolphins have won 12 of their last 14 home games that took place in winter, but the Jets really impressed me last week in beating the Vikings, a similar style of team to Miami. This game is a very good nightcap for Christmas Day, and the Dolphins put the wraps on the Jets’ playoff dreams. Miami 24, New York 20.
Cold Wind with Scattered Snow Games: Carolina (#23) at Atlanta (#18): In the spirit of the season, I’ve decided not to say anything negative about either of these two disappointing teams. That leaves me with little to talk about. Falcons DT Rod Coleman has been playing great, and that should continue this week, and CB Deangelo Hall is a lot better than what he showed against Dallas. I liked the wrinkle of using backup QB Matt Schaub, and it will work better against the Panthers than it did against the Cowboys. Notice how I have nothing positive to say about the Panthers? I’m trying real hard to find something, unlike what they’re doing on the field. Sorry, couldn’t help myself. Atlanta gets back into the thick of the playoffs with a 33-17 win.
Minnesota (#21) at Green Bay (#24): Rookie QB Tarvaris Jackson gets the start for the Vikings, which means it’s time to resurrect perhaps my favorite Brett Favre stat: Favre is 31-6 when the opposing QB is either a rookie or has 5 or fewer NFL starts. Green Bay’s secondary did a great job on Roy Williams last week, and Roy Williams is far superior to any WR that Jackson gets to throw to. The Vikings will no doubt try to pound the ball at a very weak Packers run D. The turf at Lambeau Field is in terrible shape, making quick cuts and draws awfully tough to execute, and that’s what Vikings RBs Chester Taylor and Artose Pinner do best. In what will no doubt be hyped as “perhaps Favre’s last game in Lambeau Field”, the Packers send their faithful home happy and keep their cheeseheads in the playoff mix. Green Bay 20, Minnesota 13.
Kansas City (#17) at Oakland (#31): Kansas City is the very definition of .500; they’re 7-7, have a point differential of zero, rank 15th in defense and 17th in offense. Oakland has lost 7 in a row and hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any of those games. The Raiders running game hasn’t had anyone rush for more than 70 yards in 11 weeks. They are switching back to Aaron Brooks at QB, but their inability to run the ball or protect the passer means they could have Johnny Unitas at QB and still not move the ball. Round two of the Marcus Allen Bowl goes to the Chiefs, 20-6.
Even the Mailman Can’t Get Through Games: Chicago (#4) at Detroit (#32): It’s now official: the Bears defense sans Mike Brown, Tommie Harris, and Nathan Vasher is far from the elite unit we saw early in the season. Vasher expects to play this week, but without Harris and the suspended, troubled Tank Johnson up front, expect Detroit to have surprising success moving the ball between the 20s. Of course, being the inept Lions, they’ll have little to show for it. Rex Grossman continues to give Bears fans hope that the offense might score in a playoff game as he’ll slice and dice a very bad Detroit LB and DB corps. Chicago 30, Detroit 13 in a game where the Bears defense and kick return games outscore the mistake-plagued Lions offense.
Indianapolis (#3) at Houston (#29): Houston QB David Carr has completed exactly 3 passes that went more than 10 yards downfield in his last 119 attempts. What that means is that the Colts porous run defense can overplay the run, something which the Texans often struggle with anyways. The Texans also feature one of the worst defensive back 7’s in the NFL, even more bad news against the Colts’ outstanding passing offense. Indy might call off the dogs early to avoid injuries as they prep for the playoffs, but they are still angling for a bye and home field advantage. Expect a blowout and for it to happen quickly; this is one of those games where the network switches viewers to better games during the 2nd half. Indianapolis 37, Houston 17.
Washington (#26) at St. Louis (#25): A very bad match-up featuring four of the best players in the league, none of whom ever get the credit they deserve. Rams RB Steven Jackson is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league, and QB Marc Bulger continues to throw with great touch and pinpoint accuracy despite playing behind a decimated, mistake-prone OL. Washington RB Ladell Betts has proven he’s much more than a good backup, racking up over 100 yards each of the last 4 games. He averages over 6 yards per carry in domes and finishes his runs with authority. His way is often paved by T Chris Samuels, finally healthy and nasty once again. It’s too bad most of the rest of these two rosters are chock full of easily replaceable mediocrity. Oh yeah, the game. St. Louis won my coin flip of apathy, so they are a 27-24 choice.
Tampa Bay (#30) at Cleveland (#28): Even though both teams have decimated secondaries and no poor run defenses, don’t expect offensive fireworks. The QB matchup in this game is Tim Rattay versus Derek Anderson. Enough said. Cleveland wins 33-28 on the basis of being at home and having more offensive weaponry.
Arizona (#27) at San Francisco (#22): It’s funny how the national media keeps propping up the 49ers at 6-8, touting their playoff chances, while they completely write off Minnesota, Green Bay, and Carolina despite having the same records. The Niners are a great overachieving story, and with a win they would finish 4-2 in the NFC West. Arizona can also match that mark, and over the last month they’ve been the most consistent team in the division. I really like the matchup of Arizona’s passing offense against the SF pass defense, though the Cards will struggle mightily to contain RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis. I’ll take San Francisco at home in a game that’s probably going to be more engaging than a lot of people think. 49ers 30, Cardinals 24.
