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Football Meteorology For Week 17
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 28th December, 2006 - 4:19 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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The cold winds of the beginning of winter blew hard last week, and so did my forecast. Christmas weekend brought a 7-9 lump of coal, dragging down my overall season record to just below 66%. Like the NFL teams, I hope to hit the playoffs with lots of positive momentum, and nudging the season mark back up over 2 out of 3 picks.
This is the last week of the regular season, but also when the college bowl season kicks into full blossom. The picks will only feature NFL games with playoff implications, plus some of the more intriguing bowl matchups through New Years Day.
NFL Games Jacksonville at Kansas City:
The winner of this game has playoff life, but will more than likely be a team that could win the NFC but not make the AFC Wild Card. The loser finishes a disappointing 8-8; both these teams had legit playoff run hopes even a month ago. The Jaguars have become impossible to read, whipping great teams one week and getting trounced by inferior competition the next, with no discernible rhyme or reason. I like the way the Jaguar defense contains the cutback run and smothers passes to the TE and RBs, which is basically the entire KC offense. The Chiefs hit-and-miss pass rush is going to have to be on to disrupt QB David Garrard, who is developing chemistry with his WRs. KC at home in December is almost always a lock pick, though in this strange season of surprise games and teams, even their historical dominance at Arrowhead in the cold is no safe bet. I’ve been consistently disappointed by the Chiefs and how Coach Herm Edwards has handled the team all season, and I expect that to continue this week. Jacksonville 27, Kansas City 20.
New England at Tennessee:
I’ve been predicting for a couple weeks now that the Titans amazing late-season surge is about to crash. The probability of winning so many games in a row despite losing so many important statistical indicators—things like first downs, yards per pass, 3rd down conversion rate, yards per 1st down snap—is unbelievable. It’s truly remarkable how they’ve rallied behind an opportunistic defense and the ice water veins of rookie QB Vince Young. But the only place where the Titans have a clear advantage in this game is with their very strong punt return unit against a very shoddy Patriots punting game. New England will bring back injured RB Lawrence Maroney and DT Vince Wilfork for this game to prep for the playoffs, and both should have big days. The Patriots always handle mobile QBs well, and Young has yet to show the ability to sit in the pocket and read coverages. Nobody mixes up pass coverages and blitz schemes better than New England, and I think they’ll take the impressive rookie to school. Tennessee also doesn’t generate much pressure on the QB, and Tom Brady with time to survey the field and clear throwing lanes is lethal. Sorry, Jermaniac. New England 33, Tennessee 13.
Atlanta at Philadelphia:
Two teams whose strengths match up quite well against the weaknesses of the opponent square off in a critical NFC game. Atlanta has run the ball at near-record pace all season, while the Eagles defense has struggled to stop the run, particularly between the tackles. They’ve also had trouble with mobile QBs making plays outside the pocket, and there’s never been a bigger threat to do that than Michael Vick, even though he sometimes misses WRs by 5 yards and the Falcon WRs drop at least 3 passes per game. The Eagles use their huge OL to give QB Jeff Garcia lots of time and to force blitzes and coverage switches, which the Eagles attack with draws, screens, and short slants as well as anyone. The Atlanta secondary has struggled with tackling and stopping the short throws all season, something they will try to address by switching rookie CB Jimmy Williams to safety. The speed of the Philly WRs, coupled with the threat of RB Brian Westbrook out of the backfield, presents major problems for the Falcons D. Atlanta needs help to make the playoffs, but it’s moot if they don’t win what should be the last game for most of their coaching staff. They won’t. Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a 24-14 victory.
NY Giants at Washington: The Giants can make the NFC playoff picture very simple: win and they are in, and all the other games involving teams with 7-8 records don’t matter. But it’s a real tough game for them. QB Eli Manning is consistently inconsistent and has shown zero leadership for a team desperate for a unifying force. Washington has shown lots of progress and promise with replacement RB Ladell Betts and QB Jason Campbell. Their patient yet aggressive running style, using FB Mike Sellers to clear paths past the LBs, should be quite effective against a Giants DL that doesn’t make lots of plays in the run game and a LB corps that lacks range. Still, the Skins don’t force turnovers at all on defense, and now must face a desperate division rival without top cover CB Shawn Springs. The Giants secondary held the Ethnic Slurs to 86 net passing yards in the first meeting, and Washington’s lack of size and consistent ability to get open at WR should give the Giants D some much-needed confidence. Washington has dominated the Giants at FedEx Field with Joe Gibbs coaching, and I know he badly wants to end a horribly disappointing season on a high note. Washington keeps the NFC Wild Card race interesting with a 24-19 win.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
3 reasons why Cincinnati will win this game:
1. Teams have figured out how to beat Pittsburgh S Troy Polamalu by assigning a TE to pass block against him and then exposing him in man coverage against speedy backs and wideouts. And the Bengals are perfectly manned to do just that, and nobody throws a better mid-range or fly pattern better than Carson Palmer.
2. The Bengals defensive improvement of late is legit, and they still force turnovers better than most teams. And Pittsburgh has obliged in turning the ball over a lot.
3. They have everything to play for, while the Steelers got bombarded in a must-have game last week by Baltimore.
I have visions of Willie Parker running wild and the Steelers ending all Cincy hope that are hard to ignore, but the Bengals are the pick. Cincinnati 31, Pittsburgh 20.
Green Bay at Chicago:
The Bears have barely eked out wins over two of the worst 5 teams in the last two weeks, while Green Bay has re-entered the playoff mix with 3 straight wins and an improving defense. Chicago has zero incentive to unleash the hounds, other than attempting to be just the 2nd team to win every conference game in a season since the AFL-NFL merger. The Packers speed at LB and vastly improved CB play are problems for the Bears, though RB Cedric Benson’s downhill style should find success. I like Brett Favre’s chances throwing against an injury-devastated secondary, which has consistently blown coverages and shown poor communication the past few weeks. These Packers are surprisingly better on the road than at home, though the team hasn’t beaten any team that will finish .500 or better all season. A quick start, something like a 10-0 1st quarter lead, will probably win this game for either side, as the game likely won’t end until near midnight on New Year’s Eve. You’re a fool if you bet on this game, but I like the Packers to keep the Chicago media and fans all negative towards their declining Bears. Green Bay 24, Chicago 13.
Carolina at New Orleans:
Carolina needs to win and have Green Bay and the Giants lose to make the playoffs. New Orleans is sitting pretty with a first round bye already clinched. With a rookie head coach and several key players nursing minor injuries, it’s real hard to anticipate what kind of effort to expect from the Saints. The Panthers completely shut down the Falcons’ league-leading rushing game last week, while doing all their own offense via the ground. When you can complete just 4 passes and still win, that’s a strong sign the offensive line and the defense haven’t quit despite crippling injuries. Because the Saints defense lacks depth and isn’t great against the run to begin with, Carolina should try to pound the run early and often to test how intense the Saints truly are in a game which they have no incentive to win. One hidden stat that could be crucial in this game: the New Orleans defense has faced the fewest snaps all season, while the Panthers rank 30th in offensive plays over the last 6 games. That means an injury-ravaged Carolina D could wind up being on the field a lot against a very potent offense. I’ll take the Saints to keep their momentum going forward with a 27-16 win.
Denver and the New York Jets:
Both face win-and-you’re-in games. Denver gets a visit from San Francisco, while the Jets stay at home to face Oakland. The Broncos have a newfound deep passing game with rookie QB Jay Cutler, which should be a complete mismatch against a porous 49ers back 7. I also like the Denver CBs against SF QB Alex Smith and missing their only deep threat, the suspended Antonio Bryant. In the other game, no team (okay, maybe Baltimore and San Diego) does a better job week in and week out of not beating itself than the Jets. No team (okay, maybe Detroit) does a better job of beating itself week in and week out than Oakland. Oakland’s sluggish offense is not built at all to counter the speed and versatility of the Jets defense, and S Kerry Rhodes thrives on QBs that telegraph passes like the Raiders’ Andrew Walter. Both Denver and New York make the playoffs with wins. Denver 34, San Francisco 13 and New York Jets 17, Oakland 3.
Bowl Games
Cotton Bowl: Auburn vs. Nebraska
This is not the Nebraska of Tom Osborn or Frank Solich. The Huskers throw the ball quite well and quite often, and they have a pretty solid RB tandem to complement QB Zac Taylor. Nebraska has great speed to go with good size on defense, but their secondary can be beaten on the deeper pass. Auburn QB Brandon Cox has not played well lately, and RB Kenny Irons just hasn’t been the feature back the War Eagle faithful expected. I’ll take the team with the more consistent QB in what looks to be a low-scoring, hard-hitting affair. Nebraska 20, Auburn 16.
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. USC
Both teams come in with one loss to an archrival in their last games. Both teams have loads of NFL-ready talent on both sides of the ball. Both teams are well-coached and can beat you with offensive firepower or defensive strength. I like Michigan to win for two main reasons: the Wolverines see this game as validation they are the 2nd best team in the country, and they also want to ensure they will be ranked #1 at the start of next season to help their BCS title chances in 2007. That it’s a home game for USC is always a concern for Big Ten teams, but this Michigan team is loaded. As many as 17 Michigan starters will be in the NFL within 2 years. Michigan 36, USC 27.
Capital One Bowl: Arkansas vs. Wisconsin
All season long the national media have pooh-poohed Wisconsin in spite of their sterling one-loss (to #2a Michigan). Sure, they haven’t played a tough schedule and it was a down year for the middle and bottom of the Big Ten. Sure, the Badgers have a lot of unknown names in key spots. They also have a giant OL that moves very well and features likely #1 overall NFL pick Joe Thomas, clearing holes for RB PJ Hill, who made All Big-Ten as a freshman. The Badger defense is chock full of playmakers with size and toughness, though they do lack experience and LB range; no team held opponents to fewer 1st downs all season. Arkansas counters with superb RB Darren McFadden, who sometimes plays QB so they can get their other playmaker, RB Felix Jones, onto the field. The Razorbacks played consistently strong after getting thumped by USC in the opener, but the revolving carousel at QB (both Mustain and Dick will play, as will McFadden) and their lack of size and depth on defense is a bad matchup against such a physical, well-coached Wisconsin team. Badgers 24, Razorbacks 17.
Fiesta: Boise State vs. Oklahoma
Boise State is undefeated, thanks to the shotgun offense led by QB Jared Zabransky, RB Ian Johnson, and a plus-sized OL that had no trouble moving people around in the WAC. But they haven’t seen anything close to Oklahoma’s speed or depth of talent on both sides of the ball. Sonners star RB Adrian Peterson is returning from a broken collarbone, but Oklahoma had no problem running the ball without him. QB Paul Thompson played a lot better than expected as a surprise/relief starter, and the matchup of Oklahoma passing against Boise’s pass D is probably the biggest advantage of any. The Sooners also have outstanding special teams, and typically does a great job preventing an upset. I’ll root for the Broncos to complete a perfect season and show the BCS that the little guys are worthy, but I’m afraid Oklahoma is just too fast, too talented, and too deep. Oklahoma 37, Boise State 24.
Outback Bowl: Tennessee vs. Penn State
Penn State brings two outstanding LBs and a bevy of talented WRs with stud RB Tony Hunt to the game against a Tennessee team that can throw the ball and put up points quite well. While the Nittany Lions haven’t really impressed me, their four losses came to 3 BCS Bowl teams (OSU, Michigan, Notre Dame) and another that belongs in one (Wisconsin), and they played Michigan and Wisconsin very tough. Tennessee hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence since winning at Georgia against a vastly overrated Bulldog team, but they do at least have a strong win to draw from, dominating a good Cal team in the opener. This game all comes down to how well PSU QB Anthony Morelli plays. He’s been wildly inconsistent, and the Vols will try to make him beat them through the air. I’m just not sure he can sustain that for 4 quarters. In a fairly even matchup of second-tier teams, I’ll take Tennessee to win 28-25 in a game where I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it went to overtime or came down to a last-second FG.
Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M vs. California
Cal was one of the best teams in the country through their first 9 games and has several strong NFL prospects, but they lost 2 of their last 3 and nearly lost to Stanford, one of the 5 worst teams in the country. A&M probably overachieved all season, and probably won’t have anyone on this team ever drafted 1st day, but they did beat Texas in their finale and came within a point of Oklahoma. That makes for a classic matchup: the talented, physically superior but struggling Bears against the smaller, scrappy upstart Aggies. I think the Big 12 was better than the PAC-10, both at the top and in the middle, and the Aggies played better against better teams than the Bears did. Cal RB Marshawn Lynch should have a big day, but I’ll take Texas A&M for the win, 26-17.
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. South Carolina
This isn’t the sexiest matchup, but this promises to be an offensive show. Houston QB Kevin Kolb is good enough to play anywhere, and he’s been the starter for four years. The Cougars will no doubt want to send him to the NFL as a winner. South Carolina is coached by Steve Spurrier, though he’s largely chucked his famed Fun-N-Gun offense. The Gamecocks should be able to run the ball against an undersized, iffy Houston run defense, while USC will be the best pass defense Kolb & Co. have faced all season. Both these teams are of the philosophy that it’s better to outscore the opponent rather than hold them to less points, which typically makes for lots of points, lots of big pass plays, and lots of sacks and turnovers. South Carolina 39, Houston 34.
