Don't miss your chance for football betting at BetUS.com. As America's #1 sportsbook, BetUS offers the most up-to-date betting lines & odds for all your betting needs.
Football Meteorology, Wild Card Weekend
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 2nd January, 2007 - 5:14 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
RealGM Search
It’s a new year, and that brings a new football season. It’s playoffs for the fortunate few, next-year mode for the rest. For the teams that expected to still be playing, it’s a bitter winter even if it is unseasonably warm in Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Carolina.
Last week put an end to the regular season, and it couldn’t come fast enough for this forecaster. A 4-5 week on NFL and a miserable 2-5 in bowl game predictions was a flat, warm champagne toast to what was otherwise a pretty decent forecasting season. Overall I went 125-77 on NFL games, a hair over 62%. We’ll delve into the preseason forecast accuracy in a couple of weeks, but I dare say I’m one of the very few that had Kansas City in the playoffs and both Denver and Pittsburgh on the outside, or that picked the Jets to win more games than the Dolphins.
This week features 4 NFL games, plus two Bowl games involving teams dear to my heart. Sadly I won’t be able to watch hardly any of the action. My cousin Brian, a Florida grad, is getting married, and his Gator-crazy family will have to deal with my Buckeye-bleeding group in what promises to be a very lively wedding. A note to the bride: we’re not really this crazy, we just really love football.
Wild Card games:
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Chiefs needed, and received, lots of help just to make it this far, but this is a very winnable game for Kansas City. The Chiefs feature an outstanding RB in Larry Johnson, and their commitment to the run and ability to churn out long drives is a major problem for the beleaguered Indy defense. The Chiefs were 3rd in total rushing attempts, and only Atlanta averaged more yards per carry on 1st down. The Colts were dead last in rushing defense by almost 30 yards per game and .5 yards per carry, and tied an NFL record by giving up 150 1st downs via the run. The Chiefs passing game has struggled at times and lacks a true gamebreaker, despite all the praise you’ll hear heaped upon TE Tony Gonzalez. That gives Indy some hope, because Kansas City’s defense isn’t likely to have a lot of success against the Colts balanced offense and outstanding WR duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Perhaps the biggest key matchup in this contest is how the offensive tackles handle the intense pass rush pressure from the opposing DEs, as both QBs are dependant on good throwing lanes and precise timing. If Chiefs DEs Tamba Hali and Jared Allen can consistently pressure Peyton Manning, it could be a real long day for the Colts, who lost 3 of their last 5 despite going undefeated at home all season. Both Manning and head coach Tony Dungy have legendary playoff albatrosses to conquer, but I think their overall experience and confidence in their ability to score quickly from anywhere on the field will prevail. Kansas City will win if they can convert all those rushing yards into TDs and their secondary plays well, but those are both big “ifs”, especially on the road. Indianapolis 30, Kansas City 24.
Dallas at Seattle
Dallas is such an enigma that it’s darn near impossible to tell what they’re going to do. On paper they are clearly the superior overall team, but the way they’ve played the last two weeks, the Cowboys are clearly in a lot of trouble in Seattle. I really like the matchup of Seattle’s passing game against the Dallas secondary. QB Matt Hasselbeck has the mojo and the Seahawks have a variety of receivers he can find. The emergence of DJ Hackett is a strong development, because the Cowboys will be forced to play their safeties back more in pass coverage and away from run support. The complete lack of pass rush by the Cowboys, even while blitzing multiple defenders, is a major problem against such a deep passing offense, not to mention the ever-improving running of reigning MVP Shaun Alexander. Ignore the sack stats against the Lions in Week 17; the Lions were playing a 4th string RT, 3rd string LG, and 4th string FB and were hellbent on throwing deep and slow-developing patterns. CB Terence Newman has looked very ordinary the last few weeks, and he needs to be at his midseason Pro Bowl level for the Cowboys to have any chance. Seattle has secondary issues of their own, losing top CB Kelly Herndon to a broken ankle and already having CB Marcus Trufant with a badly sprained ankle. One of the big reasons for the Seahawks’ underwhelming season was the drop-off in play of young LBs Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. The Cowboys run downhill better than most teams, and Seattle struggled all year with straightforward, power running games. QB Tony Romo missed several reads in the Detroit game and has not responded well to the rush the last few weeks. Seattle’s pass rush comes and goes, but at home it’s usually coming hard, and increased snaps for speedy rookie DE Darryl Tapp has helped. Romo appears to be suffering from the baseball phenomenon of a young batter being figured out by opposing pitchers after early success, and he’ll need to learn to hit those curveballs quickly for Dallas to have any chance. The Cowboys do have a great punting game and enough playmakers on defense and at WR that Seattle will have to be sharp and stay aggressive, two things that have troubled them all season. But I can say the same about the other side of that coin, and I like Seattle’s team chemistry and playoff experience a lot better than Dallas’. Seattle wins 23-17.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Eagles have been the NFC’s best team since Thanksgiving, while the Giants have managed just one more win over the last 8 weeks than the pathetic Lions. New York sorely misses DE Michael Strahan, as much for his leadership as his sacking prowess. But the real issue for the Giants is the offense and the play of QB Eli Manning. If you look back over the last 25 years of playoff football, you don’t often see a lot of winning teams that aren’t led by their QB or lacking a QB in which the team trusts. These Giants clearly don’t trust Eli, and their lack of leadership must make the late Wellington Mara sick in his grave. Philadelphia has a very good OL and loads of trust and confidence in QB Jeff Garcia, who earned it by filling their own leadership void with strong play and a refusal to let the wounded team quit. I like the speed matchup of the Eagles WRs against an iffy Giants secondary, and the ability of Garcia to make things happen when plays break down is a nightmare for the Giants defense. Witness what green Washington QB Jason Campbell did to them last week; edge containment and playing to the whistle are two things the Giants don’t do well. I do buy into the angle that this game being in Philly is actually a benefit for the Giants, but only if they can jump on the Eagles early and often. They do have that ability with a fresh Tiki Barber running and the size of WR Plaxico Burress, but Peyton isn’t the only Manning brother with a history of consistently coming up short in do-or-die games. Philadelphia keeps the revival moving towards Miami with a 33-16 trouncing of the Giants.
NY Jets at New England
Losing S Rodney Harrison is a major blow for the Patriots, but beyond him the Patriots are playing better than at any point in the season and are only getting healthier. These two teams know each other very well, and if you’re like me you’re already sick of all the Belichick/Mangini mentor/pupil discussion. The Jets have been a great story with their surprising turnaround, and they did win in New England earlier this year, but the Patriots have better talent at QB, RB, DL, CB, LB, and K and the WR and OL matchup is a push at worst. Enjoy the experience and the regular season accomplishment, Jets fans, because this probably isn’t going to be pretty for you. I can see New England winning by 30, but I’ll temper that out of my respect for the Jets being unspectacularly solid across the board and clearly well-coached. The Patriots move on 26-13.
Bowl Games:
BCS Title game: Florida vs. Ohio State
If you’re looking for another Bowl game that might be a good indicator of how this match-up will play out, I’ll encourage you to ignore USC winning a home game against Michigan in the Rose Bowl and focus instead on the Capital One Bowl. In that game, Wisconsin from the Big Ten beat Arkansas from the SEC by playing smarter, more disciplined, and making key plays when they had to despite giving up loads more yards and not having success at what they do best. These are two totally different styles of team from that matchup, but the way in which Wisconsin won is the biggest reason why Ohio State will win this game. No team approaches big games with the self-discipline, unflappable confidence, or ability to win a game in so many different ways than Ohio State has shown under Coach Jim Tressel. Florida has enough speed on defense to cause problems for the Buckeye running game and to keep QB Troy Smith uncomfortable. But Florida hasn’t seen anything close to the combination of size, speed, and attacking style of Ohio State’s defense. I slammed Gators coach Urban Meyer earlier this year for rotating his QBs, and I think this game will exemplify just how negatively that impacts a team, even though I think both Leak and Tebow are quite talented and worthy of playing. An underrated factor in OSU’s favor is punter AJ Trepasso and the punt return ability of Ted Ginn. Unlike a lot of pundits, I don’t think this will be a shootout, not with the solid pass defense and steady pass rush of both teams. Ohio State wins title #2 under Tressel, 27-17.
GMAC Bowl: So. Miss vs. Ohio U.
I know almost nobody cares about this game, but for my fellow Ohio U. Bobcat alumni, this is the biggest game in the history of the program. In our first bowl game since 1968, Coach Frank Solich leads a stingy defense and a versatile running attack against a Golden Eagles team that plays a very similar style. Only they do it a little better, and Southern Miss has a distinct overall speed advantage. Even though I don’t like our chances, I’m extremely proud of the Bobcats, and our strong punt and kick return games and the playmaking of LB Matt Muncy gives Ohio a fighting chance. In a game where neither team might complete 10 passes, Southern Miss wins 20-13.
