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Football Meteorology, Divisional Weekend
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th January, 2007 - 10:52 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Like my colleague Andrew Perna, I correctly forecasted all 4 NFL games. But this weekend, one of us will be wrong at least once. It’s akin to when your ABC affiliate predicts 42 degrees and light rain, while the NBC channel says 37 degrees and 3 inches of rain/sleet mix. Both know it’s cold and moist, but to what intensity and extreme is divergent and unknown.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Weather might be a big factor in this game, as the forecast calls for rain and a brisk breeze in Baltimore this weekend. That’s bad news for the Colts and their precision-based passing game. What’s even worse news for the Colts offense is that the Ravens defense is well-rested and dying to prove they are just as good as the unit that carried the franchise to a Super Bowl victory in 2001.
Peyton Manning had strong numbers against KC, but this is truly a case of the statistics not telling the whole story. He struggled to push the ball downfield, and he and his wideouts has some uncharacteristic communication and read issues. That worked against the Chiefs, but the Ravens secondary is better at making plays and is a faster, better-tackling unit overall. Ravens LBs Adalius Thomas, Bart Scott, and Ray Lewis all have enough range and aptitude to simultaneously smother the run and snuff passes to underneath receivers and TEs. Manning and the Harrison/Wayne combo is great enough to have a couple of big completions, but without success running the ball early or showing the ability to turn horizontal plays vertical, they’ll have trouble beating the best D in the league for more than a couple of scores.
I think Indy’s unexpected success at stuffing the Chiefs running game was a fluke, and Herm Edwards did them many favors with his playcalling. Since Coach Brian Billick took over those duties with his own team, the Ravens average nearly 28 points and 21 first downs a game. The WR combo of Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton can stretch the field and make something out of shorter passes, skills the Chiefs sorely lacked. That holds the safeties, and if only for a beat, and that means a downhill runner like Jamal Lewis has more time to get a full head of steam. Colts DE Dwight Freeney historically presents major issues for the Ravens, and he’ll have to be in the face and back of QB Steve McNair all game for the Colts to have any chance. Ravens FB Ovie Mughella has shown ability to pound on runs as well as make something happen on flare passes, and the Colts LBs struggle in coverage despite being more fast than big. As long as McNair takes care of the ball and the Colts run defense regresses back to regular season level even a little, Baltimore should have little trouble stringing together first downs and dominating field position, keeping Indy’s offense off the field. I also really like K Matt Stover at home in the clutch, should it come to that. I don’t think it will.
Baltimore 33, Indianapolis 20
Seattle at Chicago
Seattle needed two miracle plays to beat the bumbling Cowboys last week, and they’re likely going to need help from Chicago to beat the Bears too. Fortunately for the Seahawks, not many players do a better job beating their own team than Chicago QB Rex Grossman. His penchant for awful decision making and turning the ball over repeatedly makes this is a much more intriguing matchup than you might first think. The Seahawks have well-chronicled injury decimation in their secondary, but they overplayed the pass against Dallas with fair success and relied on the speed of their LBs and DEs to stop the big run. Chicago lacks the Cowboys overall skill and depth at WR, so the Hawks can spend more focus on stopping the Bears running game. RB Cedric Benson came on strong the last few weeks, and his decisive style presents issues for a Seattle D that’s a finesse, pursuit-style defense. The Bears have struggled all year running the ball between the tackles, and the play-action pass has been nonexistent. That’s a primary weapon to use against a green secondary like the Seahawks will trot out. Seattle must generate a pass rush from its DEs and smart blitzes from LBs Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson to help the secondary and to not let Grossman establish a comfort level. If he struggles early, the Chicago crowd will turn on him, and backup QB Brian Griese doesn’t have the arm or the escapability that makes Grossman special when he’s feeling it.
Chicago’s D sorely misses DT Tommie Harris, but even moreso they clearly miss S Mike Brown. They do get their top two CBs, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vashar, back at full strength, and nickel back Ricky Manning is one of the best in the league at that role. Because Seattle uses 3 WR sets so often, it actually allows the Bears to deploy their best defenders on the field more often, and keeps an extra blocker off rookie DE Mark Anderson, who recorded 12 sacks. RB Shaun Alexander has not shown the ability to make guys miss like he did in his MVP 2005 season, and Bears LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are both exceptional tacklers with great range and closing speed. Seattle has to hope their OL gives QB Matt Hasselbeck enough time to find the holes, and that their receivers actually catch the ball when it’s thrown to them. As TE Jerramy Stevens and WR Darrell Jackson have proven time and again, that’s far from a sure bet. I thought Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren was too eager to play for the FG in the red zone last week; running Mack Strong on 3rd and 7 from the 12 will not win this game. Still, the Bears do give up rushing yards in bunches, and Alexander has enough burst and ability to make them pay. The Seahawks cannot count on special teams miscues and penalties to help them this week. Also a bad sign for the Seahawks: an average KR torched them last week for a TD, and now they face the best in the league in rookie Devin Hester.
I’m real tempted to take the upset and pick Seattle. But I’ll go with the Bears for two reasons: the ability of the Bears to score with their defense and return games, and the lasting impression of how well Grossman played in their last meeting, where he lit a full-strength Seattle secondary for 232 yards, 2 TDs and zero INTs. Rex thrives on confidence, and he’ll no doubt find that when he watches the tapes of that game and now sees a backup S starting at CB.
Chicago 24, Seattle 19
New England at San Diego
I’ll be much more abbreviated in this forecast. San Diego has the best offensive player of the Super Bowl era in Ladanian Tomlinson. They have an outstanding defensive front 7, capable of pressuring the QB and stuffing the run equally well. They have a great kicker, good coverage units, and enough depth that most starters can afford to miss a series or two without it killing them. They have a great target in TE Antonio Gates, and underrated WRs capable of making things happen after the catch. They also have legendary playoff choker Marty Schottenheimer as their Head Coach.
On the message boards here I brought up how much this game must remind Schottenheimer of 1995, when he had a clear #1 seed in his Kansas City team. That squad had a similar attack-style defense chock full of talented playmakers, a strong running game with star Marcus Allen, capable receivers, and great special teams. Those Chiefs also featured an unproven playoff QB, an iffy overall secondary, and faced an opponent with a great leader at QB, lots of savvy vets and a coach not afraid to keep running a strong horse to death, much like these Patriots. Except these Pats are quite a bit better, not to mention more experienced winners, than the 95 Colts which ended Marty’s season that year with a stunning 10-7 upset. You can argue X’s and O’s all you want; I’m not picking against Bill Belichick or Tom Brady versus Marty or Philip Rivers.
New England 30, San Diego 24
Philadelphia at New Orleans
New Orleans hasn’t played a meaningful game in a month, while Philadelphia has faced the prospect of their season ending for most of the last two months. The Eagles turned their season around with Jeff Garcia at QB, but it actually has more to do with giving the ball to RB Brian Westbrook more. A resurgence by their secondary and DL helped a great deal as well, and that’s the unit that needs to play outstanding once again for the Eagles to have any chance to win. Losing top cover CB Lito Sheppard to injury is a terrible blow, because the Saints spread the ball around to speedy receivers all over the field. New Orleans got 3 weeks to get key contributors Joe Horn and Marques Colston close to 100%, and QB Drew Brees developed more confidence in Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper in their stead. Factor in their strong RB duo of Deuce McAlister and Reggie Bush and a solid line that plays quite well as a unit, and the Philly defense faces a huge challenge. I’m not sure they can consistently stop them, but forcing FG attempts on half the red zone possessions will go a long way.
The Saints feature a bendable defense that stiffens when needed; despite ranking in the lower half in total yards, yards per attempt, and yards per carry against, they were 5th in scoring defense when opponents crossed the 50 yard line. They do not force turnovers well, and their LBs don’t shed blocks well, so the Eagles will have some opportunities to move the ball and put up some points. I really like how the Eagles OL has embraced playing in front of Garcia, who hasn’t always commanded that type of respect in prior stops. The vibe around this Eagles team is they believe very much they are a team of destiny. But there can only be one of those in each conference, and all signs point to the Saints, finally embraced by the battered city they nearly left. In my opinion these are the only two teams with any chance of beating any AFC team, so it’s a shame they’re meeting this week and not next weekend. New Orleans wins franchise playoff game #2 with a 37-29 win at home.
