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A Super Upset In The Final Football Meteorology Of The Season

Authored by Jeff Risdon - 31st January, 2007 - 12:46 pm

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The last game of the season is upon us, but if you’re like me the excitement of the football year is over. It’s not that I don’t like the match-up of the Colts and Bears. It actually makes a very intriguing, compelling game. What keeps me from getting all hyper about the Super Bowl is the knowledge that it’s the end of football on the field for 7 months. The extended break between the conference championships and this Sunday doesn’t help either, nor does the incessant press coverage of every conceivable game angle and personality.

The Game:

I could lay out all the match-ups across the board, but if you’re reading this you’ve no doubt got enough football and internet acumen to find 500 other breakdowns of the minutae of individual battles like Ruben Brown against Booger McFarland, or Brian Urlacher against Dallas Clark split out in the slot.

Here’s what you need to know about this game:

1. If the Bears defense plays the way they did against New Orleans--generating a strong pass rush, forcing fumbles and tipping balls, dominating between the tackles--this game will not even be close.

2. All the adoration towards Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri and his playoff clutch ability is overdue to end. Even the best kickers miss one every now and then. It’s every now and then for Vinatieri, one of the best kickers ever.

3. For all the questions about the Bears offense and QB Rex Grossman, the Bears do one thing exceptionally well even when Rex is having one of his awful games. They put pressure on opposing LBs and safeties to make one-on-one tackles in the open field and work in coverage. The Bears use inside-outside runs, slanting out the TE, and having a deep route and a checkdown route on the same side of the field on most pass plays. The Colts defense has looked legitimately better in the playoffs, but their LBs are still barely adequate, and super-safety Bob Sanders is a liability in deep coverage.

4. The Colts do have one matchup that can negate point #3, and that’s Dwight Freeney and his outstanding speed on the pass rush. Freeney has to have an outstanding game for the Colts to have any chance.

5. The game is played outdoors on one of the slowest surfaces in the league. That really hurts the Colts and their precision passing game.

I see that the Colts are 6-7 point favorites in this game, and that does give me pause. As frequent readers know, I put a lot of faith in the bookmakers, because if they don’t consistently do a great job, they’re out of business. But I really think they are wrong on this one. In a game played in Florida between teams that are both 3 hour drives from my snowbound home in west Michigan, I like the Chicago Bears to win 31-20.

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