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AFC: Preseason Forecast Accountability
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 6th February, 2007 - 8:23 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Long-term forecasting in the meteorological world is a blend of prior indicators mixed with acumen for following the right model progression. Forecasting a sports season is much the same; taking what we know from the recent past, mix in the most recent changes and the changes surrounding those changes (read it again, it makes sense), and mesh that with instinct and a little unbiased logic.
Last summer I forecast the NFL season on a team-by-team basis. I’m quite proud overall of my forecasting, though it’s always easier to dwell on the teams that I missed by a wide margin.
My Super Bowl was Cincinnati over Dallas, which looked real possible until the middle of December.
This week I’ll tackle the AFC predictions. Next week I’ll cover the NFC.
Cincinnati Bengals
What I said then: So long as Palmer’s knee is fine and they don’t lose more than 2 of their first 4 games, this team is as good as any in the AFC and should challenge for the Super Bowl. I’m a firm believer in the “adversity builds team unity” philosophy the Bengals have bought into this offseason, so long as the police blotter stops. Without Palmer at more than 85% of last season, they will be lucky to limp to 8 wins. The tougher schedule means they might not win any more games than the 11 they did in 2005, but this team has the ability to win every playoff game it plays, and it might be playing in 3 or 4.
What happened: The police blotter still hasn’t stopped, and the Bengals lost their last 3 games to finish a disappointing 8-8. They did lose 3 of their first 4 games, so my caveat was prescient.
Buffalo Bills
What I said then: If this team had an above average QB, it could eke out a .500 season. They don’t, and they won’t. All their games against opponents of their caliber are road games, and they’ll be lucky to steal more than the one road win they got in 2005. They should be the front-runner for the Brady Quinn sweepstakes in the 2007 draft by finishing 3-13.
What happened: JP Losman emerged as a decent QB, the team went 3-5 on the road, and other than a couple of stinkers the Bills were very competitive and demonstrated they were a lot closer to the “best case” scenario I laid out than I thought. Finished 7-9 after losing the last two games.
Denver Broncos
What I said then: I’m going against the grain on the Broncos this year. Most pundits have them winning at least 11 or 12 games and challenging for the Super Bowl once again. Though that could very well happen and not surprise me, I just don’t see it. They get a brutal 7-game stretch from Oct 29th (IND) to Dec 10th (@SD), and then get CIN on X-Mas Eve. They’ll have to win at least 5 of those games to make the playoffs, possibly 6. The Broncos are good, but not that good, and both KC and SD are better. Denver winds up 9-7 and on the outside of the playoffs.
What happened: I nailed it! 9-7 and finishing behind SD and KC, and lost 5 of those 7 brutal stretch games.
Cleveland Browns
What I said then: I’ll break this one into two parts, with the “worst case” I laid out along with the prediction.
Worst case: Frye isn’t ready, the weapons on offense don’t materialize, the OL continues to struggle at pass protection. The special teams regress, and the injury bug keeps biting hard. All the youth shows too often, and McGinest, Washington, and OL Joe Andruzzi and Ryan Tucker show their advancing age. The weight of a tough schedule and inexperience build up and the team struggles to match the 6-10 of 2005.
Prediction: In a division where the three other teams all have somewhat legit Super Bowl aspirations, it’s a tough time to be an up and comer. These Browns should be among the most improved teams in the league, particularly on offense. But it might not translate into the wins the rabid fan base craves. The Browns are still a year away from hunting for big game, but if the prey is sleeping, this team can inflict some wounds. This team would finish second in the NFC North or West, and in 2007 they will be ready to do that in the AFC North. I see another 6-10, but two wins either way is easy to envision, depending on how quickly the team comes together.
What happened: See “worst case” scenario. The Browns finished 4-12 and lost every divisional game.
San Diego Chargers
What I said then: The line congeals better than the sum of its parts. The defensive front 7 remains one of the best and helps compensate for a shaky secondary. The special teams consistently win the field position battle and play better in big games. Schottenheimer finally exceeds statistical probability and doesn’t lose 5 games despite thoroughly outplaying the opponent once again, as he seems to do every year.
Prediction: It’s awful hard to look at this team and not see “playoffs”; a premier defensive front 7, the best RB and TE in the game, great kicking game, highly regarded young QB. Of course they had all that last season and choked away a playoff berth. I foresee a dominating run defense and a more methodical offense that takes some pressure off the iffy secondary. They should win every non-divisional home game, and really only have two road games where they should lose--Cincy and Seattle. Notice I used the word “Should”. This team “should” go 11-5 or even 12-4. I’m guessing they will find a way to lose a game or two they “should” win and finish 9-7 but eke into the playoffs.
What happened: Sailed through the regular season at 14-2 with the best RB season ever and a dominating defense. The game they lost which they should have won finally came in the 1st round of the playoffs, where they outplayed the Patriots and still lost.
Kansas City Chiefs
What I said then: This is basically the same team that went 10-6 last year, only a little older in key spots. They’re aware the window of opportunity is nearly closed on their core group, and they have a new coach who can use that to their advantage. If they can ratchet up the pass defense and kick coverage/return to 18th or better this team should secure a Wild Card or possibly even the AFC West, and they’re capable of winning at least one playoff game. I don’t think it will be quite that good, but they’re a playoff team. 11-5, a Wild Card, and a very tough playoff out.
What happened: Made the playoffs at 9-7, finished ranked 18th in pass defense, and did so with a backup QB playing half the season. Lost to the Super Bowl champs 23-8 in a game that was closer than the score indicated.
Indianapolis Colts
What I said then: Nobody likes to talk about it, but this team looks eerily similar to the 2002 St. Louis Rams. The 2001 Rams went 14-2 with the explosive #1 offense and a vastly improved defense. But in 2002 the team suffered an injury to its MVP QB, a down year from the running game, and a defensive regression back to average from being top 10. Those Rams went 7-9, a fluke year in a string of very strong contending seasons. I’m not ready to predict that for these Colts, not with so much talent, but nobody thought those Rams would collapse either. This team could once again win home field throughout the playoffs, but I think it’s a down year in Indy. They finish 10-6, still winning their division but once again stumbling early in the playoffs.
What happened: The defense did indeed regress, but the Colts still finished 12-4 and went on to exorcise their playoff demons and won the Super Bowl.
Miami Dolphins
What I said then: With so many key questions involving such talented players, the Dolphins are a bit of a tough read. No question they could challenge for 10-11 wins and a division title, but it’s also highly conceivable they trip and fall over the lofty expectations. I’m not sold on Culpepper’s health or ability to instantly pick up a complex new offense, but there’s enough around him to carry them early. This team will be made or broken during the three weeks following their bye, with games at Chicago and home against Kansas City and Minnesota. If they win 2 out of those 3, they’re likely going to be playing for a playoff spot in Week 17 at Indy. If they drop 2 or all 3, they could realistically not win more than one more game all season. I’m inclined to go with the latter, and the Dolphins finish 8-8.
What happened: They tripped and fell to 6-10, and they won only one game after the 3-week stretch just as I forecasted.
Jacksonville Jaguars
What I said then: No chance they’ll go 12-4 again, but there’s too much good talent and coaching to fall too far. A repeat of 2004, when they went 9-7 is more likely. I like the intangibles on this team and most key players are hitting their prime years, so I bump that up to 10-6 and fighting until the end for a playoff berth.
What happened: Lost their last 3 games to fall from the playoffs and finished 8-8 after ham handedly switching QBs midseason.
New York Jets
What I said then: I think the Jets might surprise some of the more jaded Jets fans and NY media. This is by no means a good football team, but of all the clear non-playoff teams, the Jets probably have the best chance to pull some surprises. If the defensive front 7 adjusts to the 3-4 and Pennington finds a rhythm with Coles and the playbook, they’re going to win some games, and I think both will happen. The schedule has several winnable games, and I think the Jets will take advantage. They go 6-10 in Year One of the “New York Patriots”, although that worst-case scenario I laid out isn’t out of the question.
What happened: They blew away even my optimistic prognostication, finished 10-6 and made the playoffs behind a resurgent Chad Pennington and consistently playing better than the sum of their parts.
New England Patriots
What I said then: There are more questions entering this season for the Pats than they’ve faced in a long time, but when you’ve got Bill Belichick and Tom Brady answering the questions, the answers are usually right. So long as they don’t sleepwalk through a midseason stretch where they face 5 of the least talented teams in 6 weeks, the Patriots finish 13-3 and once again cruise deep into the playoffs.
What happened: Wound up 12-4 and lost the AFC title game to Indy. And they did sleepwalk in a bad loss to the Dolphins, thus ruining my quest for a perfect prediction.
Oakland Raiders
What I said then: Last season all the pundits kept proclaiming the Raiders “the best lousy team in football”. This year they’re almost certain to be lousy again, but I doubt you hear the Phyrrhic praise. I do like a lot of their pieces, and a run at .500 isn’t out of the question. But with the 2 extra preseason games in which to get more injuries and a brutal schedule, this team is going to have to play near flawlessly to win more than 6 games. I see them being about 2-9 and then finishing strong, winding up 6-10.
What happened: Shame on me for not seeing the inevitable suffocation of hope with all the iffy characters and weak coaching on this team. They were indeed 2-9, but proceeded to lose all the rest of their games and finished a league-worst 2-14 despite having one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens
What I said then: There are two very distinct scenarios for the Ravens in 2006. They could very well discover the fountain of youth, win 10 games and be the team nobody wants to play in the playoffs. Or they could flounder, fracture, and crash to another last place finish in a tough AFC North. They play 3 games against Super Bowl contenders right before the bye in week 7 that will seal their fate: San Diego, at Denver, and Carolina. If they can win 2 of those games and hit the bye at 4-2 or better, look out above. If they win none or one and are 2-4 or worse, they’re going to struggle to match the 6 wins of last year. Either way, this will be the best Ravens team you see over the next 3-4 seasons. You can consider the fact I’m from Cleveland in my thinking, but I’m much more sold on 6-10 or 7-9 than being an elite team. But they are my top sleeper pick for surprise team of 2006.
What happened: I’ll refer to the “best case” scenario… The key players perform like it’s 2002 all over again, and some of the youngsters emerge as legit NFL talent. The team unifies behind embattled coach Brian Billick and puts together a strong playoff run. I picked this team to win 11 games and go deep in the playoffs last season, and they upgraded at QB. It could happen this year.
They actually went 13-3, but stumbled in the playoffs to the Champion Colts. Curiously, they lost two of those three key games that I predicted would seal their fate. I got the sleeper part right, and you’d better believe this was the best Ravens team you’re going to see over the next 3-4 years.
Pittsburgh Steelers
What I said then: They are wearing a giant bulls eye with a difficult schedule, and they’ll have to play better than they did in the 2005 season to make the playoffs again. They have the capability to do just that, but I still see this team as no better than 5th in the AFC over a 16-game schedule. A 10-6 finish, and their playoff fate is decided in Week 2 with their game against Jacksonville. Win and they’re in, lose and it’s a very long, cold winter in Pittsburgh. But as I said about them last season, if they do make it in, they should be considered the favorites in every playoff game.
What happened: They lost that key game to the Jaguars, but dropped some others as well thanks to a bad year by QB Ben Roethlisberger and iffy secondary play. Wound up 8-8 after starting a dismal 2-6.
Houston Texans
What I said then: Can a team go two years in a row getting just two forced turnovers from their defensive front 7? Can a QB get pressured on an astounding 63% of his pass attempts (the league average is 41%) two seasons in a row and now get broken? Can a 2-14 team bring in a pretty solid draft class and a whole new organizational culture, plus a few key veteran leaders and performers, and not win more than 2 games again? You’re about to find out. But it doesn’t look positive. They’ll compete with Buffalo for worst team in the AFC and might luck into 3 wins. Look at it this way, Texans fans, next year’s #1 overall draft pick is a no-brainer (Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn), and ridiculously overmatched GM Charley Casserly is gone, so they can’t possibly blow it two years in a row.
What happened: Once again they struggled to protect their QB and force turnovers. But the talented draft class and new coaches made a positive impact, and the team finished 6-10 and was rarely dominated despite having inferior overall talent in most games.
Tennessee Titans
What I said then: I liked this team a lot better in the spring than I do right now. They have the potential for a pretty solid defense, but there are so many questions. The QB and RB tumult, coupled with a weak OL, really slows down positive momentum. Unless Vince Young emerges as the 2004 version of Daunte Culpepper, there’s not more than 5 wins on the schedule. They might go another season without beating a team that finishes with a winning record, finishing 4-12.
What happened: Young emerged as a true winner and leader, and despite a decidedly poor defense, the Titans won 6 of their last 7 games and finished 8-8. What’s interesting is that these Titans finished with the worst point differential (-76) of any team to finish .500 or better in AFC history, and teams within the range of -60 to -80 typically win just 4 or 5 games. The forecast model was right, but some butterfly smiled on the Titans.
