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2007 Draft: Dynamite And Bras?
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 20th April, 2007 - 3:49 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
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One of the things I keep getting asked is who I think will be surprise booms and high-profile busts from the upcoming draft. I did a similar column about this time last year and I was right on all the booms (Demeco Ryans, Marcus McNeill, Nick Mangold, Davin Joseph) and two of the three busts (Marcedes Lewis, John McCargo, and the big whiff of Kamerion Wimbley).
Those in need of bras for being large busts:
Jon Beason, LB, Miami FL: he’s both smaller and slower than advertised and most of his peers in the NFL; you can be one or the other and still be great, but if you’re both you’re rarely anything more than an average starter. Teams want more than that from their 1st or 2nd round picks. He’s also got significant durability issues. One team I know has him rated as a 3rd-4th rounder, while another scout told me his team has him the 5th rated LB in a pretty weak class. He’s going to be drafted somewhere in the 25-40 range.
Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina: physically he’s got all the tools, and he’s been a productive wideout in Steve Spurrier’s offense. But there are two huge red flags on Rice: his teammates and coaching staff ranged from neutral to downright hostile in assessing Rice in terms of being a teammate and a hard worker, and he’s got the dreaded “alligator arms” across the middle and when safeties are closing. He’s already fallen into the 2nd round at best, and I believe that will prove too high.
Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas: He’s almost an exact carbon copy of 2004 bust Ahmad Carroll--great speed, awesome physique, can shut down slower guys and ballhawk on weak-armed QBs, obnoxiously overconfident. But he was the very definition of “toast” far more often than he was a lockdown corner, and he lacks natural instincts and quick decision-making in coverage. One scout rated his tackling as “useless” and was less kind in assessing his ability to play zone coverage. He’s a nickel back at best, but he’s probably going in the second half of the 1st round.
Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida: There’s actually quite a bit I like about Moss--his ability to disrupt passing lanes, he diagnoses plays quickly and stays at home on screens and cutbacks, he’s a good athlete and played big in big games. Here’s the problem: he’s 6’6”, 250, runs in the 4.7s, and put up fewer reps (16) than most WRs and CBs. Being a tall tweener requires either blazing speed and quickness (see Jason Taylor) or great power and toughness (see Mike Vrabel), and Moss has neither package. Of all the busts I’m predicting, I give Moss the best chance to be an immediately effective player; I think he can be a pass rushing specialist for his first couple of seasons and eventually become a decent every-down OLB in a 3-4 defense. But the margin for error is so small for guys who lack strength so significantly and don’t have great speed.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: Russell will be the #1 overall pick based on his freakish size, cannon arm, and his Sugar Bowl decimation of Notre Dame. But Notre Dame’s pass defense was slow and burned all season. Look at how Russell fared against Auburn, Florida, or Tennessee: lots of shorter completions, lots of missed reads and bad throws, breakdowns in his fundamentals. Also consider that the entire LSU offense will be in the NFL within 2 years, and most defenses he faced had no more than two NFL-caliber backups. He also strikes some people as under-motivated, a guy who will become complacent with his big payday and a guy who doesn’t hate to lose. He could wind up being an All Pro 5 times, but I think he’s more likely to be a major disappointment. It is imperative he wind up with a coach that can push him and a team with a strong locker-room leader in place.
TNT, Dynamite: Guys who will Boom
Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan: Supremely athletic, but I’ve watched how much his technique in pass blocking has improved over the years. He’s a former TE who hasn’t lost his quickness despite bulking up and adding tons of functional strength. Plus Staley is a bright kid with an outstanding ethic and drive. He could develop into a very good RT in the mold of Todd Weiner or Ryan Diem.
Jason Hill, WR, Washington State: Hill has the size/speed package and ability to avoid jams and find seams very reminiscent of Reggie Wayne. He was quite productive in college despite having QBs that ranged from spotty to downright incapable. Give him an accurate QB and line him up across from a legit #1 WR and Hill has a very good chance to be a very good #2 WR, which is a good value for a guy who probably isn’t in the top 50 of the draft.
Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina: Another WR who gets lost in the shuffle below all the big names from the big programs, but ask any DB at the Senior Bowl who was the hardest guy to cover and the unanimous answer is Allison. He’s pretty inexperienced but already shows signs of being a legit playmaker. Give him a year or two of stable coaching and time to refine his route running and blocking, and Allison could be the next Donald Driver.
Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers: You need a feature back with agility and speed--Leonard can do that. You need a power chugger who isn’t afraid to lower his head or attack while blocking--Leonard is your guy. He’s got great hands, plays smart, and showed impressive leadership skills in postseason games. Lots of NFL people don’t like the fact that they don’t know exactly for what role he’s best suited; I say his versatility, high football IQ, and charisma are traits of guaranteed success.
David Harris, LB, Michigan: Several scouts thought Harris was Michigan’s best defensive player in 2006, and as many as 5 Wolverines could be drafted next Saturday. In watching games, it’s quite hard to find a play where Harris was blocked or where he was out of position. Great finisher of his tackles, and he’s far more athletically gifted than he gets credit. He’s going to start right away and stay in the starting lineup for a decade, chalking up around 100 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3-4 turnovers a season. Not bad value for a guy who is going to be drafted in the 30-45 range.
