If Favre comes back, he better stick it out for a full season whether he starts, is a back-up, or gets benched several games into the season.
RealGM Search
The NFL is a lot like weather in so many ways. One of the most striking similarities is that you cannot judge a season based on the first week in either case. Think back to the first day of spring: here in West Michigan it was 39 degrees, windy, with snow still on the ground. The last day of spring I was playing beach volleyball without a shirt on.
The first week of the NFL season is much the same. What we see over the next few weeks from several teams will be vastly different than how they weathered opening weekend. Browns, Eagles, and Saints fans certainly hope that is true. That’s why the power rankings won’t debut until next week.
Several important indicators did develop, however, not the least of which is injuries. The Bears, Bills, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams and Ethnic Slurs (that’s Washington for the uninitiated) all suffered team-altering, season-ending injuries to key players. Injuries change the long-term forecast more than any other factor in football.
Perfect Weather Game of the Week
San Diego at New England: Most pundits rated these as the top two teams in the league this summer, and this contest could wind up deciding home field advantage in the playoffs. San Diego’s offense struggled against a fierce, speedy Chicago defense in Week 1, and the Bears laid the blueprint for slowing down what was the most explosive offense in 2006: dare QB Philip Rivers to throw to his WRs. New England’s defense has enough speed and upfront surge to do the same, but I’m not sure the Patriot secondary can handle the receivers the way the Bears did. Expecting Ladanian Tomlinson to only rush for 25 yards again is ridiculous, and even when he was contained he still accounted for 2 TDs. The Chargers secondary played very well in the opener, but it was the complete domination of a pretty good Bears OL by the 3 down linemen and attacking OLBs that really stood out. New England’s OL looked good against the Jets, but the difference between the Jets front 7 and the Chargers front 7 is the difference between a tropical storm and a Category 4 hurricane. It’s hard to discount Randy Moss’ impressive Patriot debut, but I just don’t see a repeat and the Brady’s other new toys weren’t special even in a commanding win. I forecast a low-scoring slugfest punctuated by a couple of big plays, and San Diego triumphs 20-17.
Sunny & Warm games
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Last week Peyton Manning & Co. picked on CB Jason David, who started for them last season. This week they face their other starting CB from 2006, Nick Harper. The Colts toasted David for 3 TDs, and David has a lot more talent around him in New Orleans than Harper does in Tennessee, though the Titans D played well last week. Something has to give in the matchup between Titans RB Chris Brown and the Colts defense. Brown torched an allegedly stout Jaguars D for 175 rushing yards, while the Indy defense emasculated the high-flying Saints offense, both defying all expectations and conventional wisdom. I’m quickly learning to rue picking against Vince Young, but I believe the Colts defense is more likely to repeat the Week One surprise. Nick Harper only gets toasted twice for TDs, but that will be enough. Indianapolis 34, Tennessee 23.
NY Jets at Baltimore: When does losing your starting QB make your offense a better unit? When you’re both the Jets and Ravens. Both teams struggled badly to move the ball down the field with now-injured starters Chad Pennington and Steve McNair. Opponents crammed the box and held a tight umbrella against the pass, and the two vets couldn’t/wouldn’t stretch the field to ease the pressure. Enter Kellen Clemens in New York and Kyle Boller in Baltimore, two strong-armed guys not afraid to get to 2nd & 10 by missing a 30 yard post pattern instead of sending their RB into an 8-man wall. The matchup of Ravens NT Haloti Ngata vs. Jets LG Jacob Bender is a huge mismatch in favor of the Ravens, and when the Jets help with C Nick Mangold and/or LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, that means the talented Ravens LBs will be largely unblocked. Thomas Jones, meet Ray Lewis and Bart Scott. Baltimore 27, New York 7.
Houston at Carolina: My apologies to Panthers Off. Coordinator Jeff Davidson. With the egregious performance of his former offense (the Browns) and the very impressive outing by his unit, Davidson proved in Week One that sometimes it is the tools and not the carpenter to blame. The Texans finally got worthy results from Mario Williams, and the overhauled secondary played smart football, a new phenomenon in Houston. It’s tough to gauge two teams coming off surprisingly impressive (to me anyways) Week One triumphs, but I believe the deciding matchup is the Panthers DL vs. the Texans OL. It should be a strong advantage for the Panthers, and the Carolina secondary is solid enough to withstand the Andre Johnson show if the front can make the Texans one-dimensional. I’m not as sold on the Texans defense bottling up Steve Smith or the Deangelo Williams/Deshaun Foster RB combo. Panthers 30, Texans 20.
Mix of Sun and Clouds games
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Sometimes the opening week tells you a lot about at team. It confirmed to me that Tampa Bay is not good enough to beat good teams without help from those better teams beating themselves. And sometimes the opening week means little. Opening on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs and a fired-up defense eager to prove critics wrong meant the Saints had little opportunity to show their true colors. The Bucs play a similar style of defense, but they don’t have any elite players like Dwight Freeney or Bob Sanders to disrupt the Saints weapon-laden offense. Tampa’s dink-and-dump offense with Jeff Garcia is not able to exploit the Saints’ biggest weakness, the deep pass. Look for a big game from Saints DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant, who are far too quick for Bucs tackles Jeremy Trueblood and Luke Petitgout. New Orleans 37, Tampa Bay 16.
Seattle at Arizona: The most disappointing performance in Week One in my eyes was Cards QB Matt Leinart. He looked uninspired and offline in their tough loss to the 49ers. Seattle’s defense can bring the heat, and if Leinart isn’t at the top of his game this is going to be ugly. The Cardinals defense looked pretty solid in its own right, but Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck & Co. offer a stiffer challenge than the Niners. Seattle 27, Arizona 15.
Minnesota at Detroit: The Vikings long-dormant pass rush sprung to life in Week 1, and they’ll need more of the same against the pass-proficient Lions. Detroit got a dominating performance from their defensive front 4 against the Raiders, and they’ll need more of the same to stop superb rookie RB Adrian Peterson. I was quite impressed with the revamped Lions OL, LG Ed Mulitalo in particular. I trust Detroit’s Jon Kitna at QB more than Minnesota’s Tarvaris Jackson, and the fact he has 4 wideouts that are all better than anything Jackson gets to throw to seals the deal. Detroit goes to 2-0 with a hard-fought 23-17 win in their home opener.
Washington at Philadelphia These teams come in off divergent but almost synchronous outcomes. Washington beat Miami in overtime on a Sean Suisham FG about 20 seconds after Mason Crosby nailed the game winner for the Packers against the Eagles. Yet another reason why you should spend Sundays camped out at a good sports bar--seeing that juxtaposition of NFC East rivals in resplendent 50 inch Hi-Def right next to each other is what makes football the greatest reality show on TV. Oh yeah, the game. The Eagles OL got routinely mauled, and their WRs looked out of synch with McNabb. Philly still only lost the game because they couldn’t field punts. How Andy Reid must rue cutting Jeremy Bloom and Reno Mahe! The Skins lost RT Jon Jansen, which is a major problem against a deep, versatile Eagles D-line. Philly will miss CB Lito Sheppard, but the Ethnic Slurs lack the skill at WR beyond Santana Moss to exploit it. Look for a big game from Eagles WR Reggie Brown and vastly improved special teams in a 27-13 Eagles win.
Cool and Overcast games
Dallas at Miami: The Dallas offense exploited a lousy Giants secondary and exploded for 45 points. Miami lost staring safety Yeremiah Bell, making the weakest link in their otherwise strong defense even weaker. As long as the Cowboys OL gives Tony Romo time to find Jason Witten, TO, and Patrick Crayton, Dallas should put up bushels of points once again. The Dolphins front 7 has the talent and ability to put a crimp in those plans, however. The Cowboys have pass coverage issues of their own, particularly if top CB Terrence Newman can’t go once again, but the Dolphins scattershot pass offense isn’t the type to make Roy Williams consistently pay for his awful cover skills at safety. Dallas prevails in a game only fans of these two teams will enjoy watching. Cowboys 22, Dolphins 17.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh: Buffalo heads to Pittsburgh smarting off a last-second loss and missing 5 defensive starters. That’s bad news, because the Steelers showed loads of opportunistic offense in routing the Browns. It seemed like QB Ben Roethlisberger exploited every blown coverage assignment for a big play, and the Browns brought a cohesive, fairly talented secondary to the table. Buffalo does not. The Bills offense showed little punch against Denver other than a couple of nice Marshawn Lynch scampers, and the Steelers defense can bring the pressure like no other. The emotional edge the Bills might have from the blessed recovery of nearly-paralyzed teammate Kevin Everett might keep the score closer than it should be, but this game is my pick in all those “Survivor” fantasy games. Steelers 37, Bills 13.
San Francisco at St. Louis: San Francisco won despite looking completely inept on offense against an average-at-best Cardinals defense. The average-in-their-dreams Rams defense will have to show a lot more toughness up front or else Frank Gore is going to put up some truly astonishing numbers. The Rams secondary made 34 tackles last week while the LBs made just 18, and the defense recorded no sacks and just 5 pressures on 27 Panthers pass attempts. The Niners passing game is still finding its way, with QB Alex Smith completing under 40% of his passes until their final drive and TE Vernon Davis completely neutered. In short, this is a meeting of two very flawed teams. The Rams offense is the best unit in the matchup, though losing Orlando Pace could make bouncing back from an underwhelming Week One much tougher. St. Louis 34, San Francisco 30.
Green Bay at NY Giants: It’s hard to judge a wounded animal until you see it under pressure. Will it claw and snarl, refusing to succumb without a bloody fight, or will it put up a token growl and then quietly accept its poor fate? Minus the starting QB and RB and with the star DEs both slowed by either injury (Umenyiora) or rust (Strahan), the Giants are certainly a wounded animal. The Packers defense showed sustained periods of disruptive force last week, and now they draw the Hefty Lefty, Jared Lorenzen, making his first start at QB for the Giants. I actually like Lorenzen throwing to Plaxico, Shockey and Amani, but no running game spells trouble. As long as Favre doesn’t try to force too many throws and the Pack can quell the initial snarl of the wounded, desperate Giants, Green Bay should pick up a comfortable road win. But beware if the Giants find early success. Green Bay 27, New York 16.
Thunderstorms and Nasty Weather games
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The last thing the Browns need after getting emasculated by Pittsburgh is another defense that excels at forcing turnovers and an offense that stretches the field with competent WRs and a rifleman at QB. The Brady Quinn watch is ticking loudly. The Bengals nearly lost a game in which they went +4 in turnovers, something that happens about 3 times a decade. Take away Rudi Johnson’s 15-yard run and he got just 2 yards per carry, and the reshuffled, banged up OL gave Carson Palmer little time to look downfield. The Browns don’t do many (any?) things well, but the one thing they do best is get consistent pressure on the QB from Kamerion Wimbley and Antwan Peek. The speed of the Cleveland LBs will be a problem for the Bengals, but I steadfastly refuse to pick the QB/WR combo of Derek Anderson/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius over Carson Palmer/Ocho Cinco/TJ Houshmandzadeh. Bengals 20, Browns 9.
Atlanta at Jacksonville: Both these teams laid giant eggs in their openers. I expected the Falcons to look like turkeys, but the Jags were supposed to be fierce oviraptors, not mother hens. Playing against mistake-prone Joey Harrington and his flock of ugly-duckling WRs is a great remedy for what ails Jacksonville. The Falcons defense is a game hen, but former Hokies Deangelo Hall and Jimmy Williams gamble enough in the secondary that Jags QB David Garrard can find the end zone with his own gaggle of waddling wideouts. Jacksonville 23, Atlanta 10.
Kansas City at Chicago: Outstanding Bears defense gets to face a completely one-dimensional Chiefs offense, and KC didn’t do to well at that dimension against a middling Texans D. They shut down the best RB in the league last week, and the Chiefs OL is not even close to the Chargers OL. Chicago can win this one even if Bad Rex shows up, so long as they don’t lose any more defensive starters to injury. They are going to miss Mike Brown, but not this week. I’d give KC more of a chance if they weren’t starting a new kicker for the 3rd straight game or had the suspended DE Jared Allen, their best defensive player. Chicago opens the home slate much like they did last year when they pasted the Lions 34-7 in a game that was decided in the 1st quarter. Chicago 40, Kansas City 10.
Oakland at Denver: Oakland showed some signs of offensive life in the opener, namely the emergence of a legit #1 WR in Ronald Curry. QB Josh McCown proved he deserved to start, and RB Lamont Jordan played like the guy the Raiders thought they had before last season, when he stunk. The problem is that the vaunted defense got lit up by Detroit, and the special teams were special ed level. Denver dominated the stats but had to rush a last-second FG to escape Buffalo with a win, just about the only thing their special teams did right. Teams with lesser talent need to win special teams and turnover battles to win road games, and the Raiders have yet to show they can win either of those battles with their largely inferior talent. Denver extends the win streak over the Raiders to 6 with a 24-12 victory.
Drinking in the Dorm Room game
Notre Dame at Michigan: Not the sexiest game on the docket, but how often do the two teams I loathe the most as a Buckeye fanatic meet under such dire circumstances? Michigan’s defense has looked terribly slow and unimaginative against spread offenses, but the Irish bring a more pro-style offense to the Big House. The inexperience at the skill positions has been painful to watch for Irish fans, as Notre Dame has yet to score an offensive TD and has negative rushing yards on the season. Michigan also will start a true freshman at QB in Ryan Mallet, but he gets to hand the ball to Mike Hart (until he leaves for a quarter or two with his trick hamstring) and throw to Mario Manningham. Irish QB Jimmy Clausen doesn’t have that luxury. Look for the Michigan D to have a much better day than they’ve had the last two Saturdays. Michigan 34, Notre Dame 10.
Bonus college games: Tennessee 23, Florida 20
Georgia Tech 27, Boston College 24
Ohio State 17, Washington 16
