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Football Meteorology For Week 3
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 21st September, 2007 - 2:56 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
RealGM Search
This week marks the beginning of the power poll rankings. I steadfastly refuse to rank the teams until I’ve seen real games to base upon. I have attempted to leave out as much preseason bias as I can and focus solely on what has happened on the field in the first two weeks. Of course with the way I’ve been picking games (8-8 on NFL, 3-1 on NCAA) last week, my preseason bias was probably incorrect anyways. Not even the venerable Jim Cantore is perfect in his Weather Channel forecasts.
Because the weather is always changing, the forecast must also change. You can find my updated long-term forecast here:
http://www.realgmfootball.com/src_encroachment/70/20070917/football_meteorology_for_2007_updated_forecast/
Sunny Games
Indianapolis (2) at Houston (7): Just when you start getting the warm, fuzzy feelings about the resurgent Texans, word comes that their best player, WR Andre Johnson, will miss this key AFC South game with a bum knee. QB Matt Schaub has been a great fit in Coach Kubiak’s offensive system, but he’s also benefiting from a vastly improved OL, where RT Eric Winston is quickly emerging as a top-flight pass protector. They will be tested by the lightning quick Colts defense, and without Johnson to stretch the field, Indy can keep omnipresent safety Bob Sanders in the box without worry. These Texans are legit, but the Colts sure look like they will be able to defend their ring. Colts 33, Texans 20.
Dallas (4) at Chicago (6): For a heralded primetime match-up between the NFC’s two best teams, the outcome of this game is pretty simple. The battle between Cowboys P Mat McBriar and Bears PR Devin Hester will decide this game. Both are the best at their crafts in the game today, and if McBriar can keep the ball out of Hester’s hands and control field position, the Cowboys should win. The Bears offense can improve its 31st ranking in yards per play and 32nd rank in yards per 1st down snap against a Dallas defense with serious coverage issues, but only if the OL gets back to playing like they did last year. They badly struggled against a San Diego defense designed by the Cowboys Head Coach, Wade Phillips. The Cowboys don’t have as talented a DL, but this is still a unit that can bring the heat and close running holes quickly. The debut of speedy TE Greg Olsen should help QB Rex Grossman, who has not found a comfort level with any receivers yet. Tough to pick against the Bears at home, but unless their passing game suddenly erupts (and it can), the Cowboys are the pick. Dallas 20, Chicago 16.
San Diego (5) at Green Bay (8): The Packers D has held two pretty good offenses to 13 points apiece, while the supposedly strong Chargers O has notched consecutive 14-point outputs. The inability of their WRs to get open despite teams loading up to contain RB Ladanian Tomlinson has been water in the gas tank. Putting a banana in the tailpipe are the injuries to NT Jamal Williams and two starting LBs. Without an effective Williams tying up the middle of the OL, the Chargers defense goes from being great to being beatable. If LBs Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper are slowed or can’t go, that means a Green Bay running game featuring two rookie RBs and a rookie FB can build on their early success and not force Brett Favre to gunsling his way to a win. Strange but true factoid: Chargers coach Norv Turner has never won a game in any NFC North city. San Diego is still a 5-point favorite, and that’s a lot of points for a road team against an undefeated opponent, which makes this one of those dreaded “gambler’s trap” games, begging you to take Green Bay. Never bet against the house. San Diego 31, Green Bay 24.
Fair Skies Games
San Francisco (20) at Pittsburgh (3): The Steelers have thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball in wins over Cleveland and Buffalo. The Niners have struggled mightily on offense, ranking no higher than 29th in any category, and are solidly average on defense, but they also have two wins. Pittsburgh’s defense brings pressure like no other, and their secondary has looked better than anticipated in downfield coverage. They are vulnerable to active TEs, but SF’s Vernon Davis talks a much better game than he walks right now. You want some proof of how vastly superior Pittsburgh is in this game? Consider that the Steelers took more snaps on the opponent’s side of the 50 in the 1st quarter of their opener (14) than the Niners have in two games (12). The upgraded SF defense abused an injury-ravaged Rams OL, and their secondary has done a great job of keeping plays in front of them, so this game will probably wind up being closer than it should. But the Steelers have too much, especially at home. Pittsburgh 27, San Francisco 9.
Tennessee (11) at New Orleans (26): The Saints finally get a home game and an opponent that lacks a game-breaking WR. Their leaky secondary is going to be troublesome all season, but they’ve been exploited by two precision QBs with great (yes, Joey Galloway still has it) downfield threats, two labels that nobody would ever put on the Titans. The struggling Saints offense finally showed some positive direction in the 2nd half last week, but the interior OL must consistently frustrate DT Albert Haynesworth, who is playing extremely well for TEN. The Saints desperately need Reggie Bush to step up, but this is a game where the bigger, more physical Deuce McAllister looks like a better matchup against a Titans D that loves to blitz LBs around the outside. I’ve underestimated the Titans far too long, but I think the Saints have favorable matchups and are simply due to play well. New Orleans enjoys the home cooking with a 20-17 squeaker.
Jacksonville (19) at Denver (9): Denver keeps doing just enough to squeak out victories, leaving loads of points on the field despite pretty much dominating with their offense. The Broncos defensive front has looked very strong, while the Jaguars clearly miss C Brad Meester. Jacksonville’s offense is designed to run-run-run, but the OL has not opened good holes, and their passing game scares nobody with their inconsistent, underwhelming cast of WRs. This game is my “Survivor” fantasy game pick, with the Broncos winning 20-10.
Cincinnati (17) at Seattle (15): Last week was a good indicator that these teams are more vulnerable than their fans would like to admit. When you give up 51 points to a team that disgustedly dealt its starting QB (to Seattle, coincidentally) after an outing of pure offensive ineptitude, that means your defense has major issues. They barely got by in Week One by forcing (using that term quite loosely) 6 turnovers. The Seattle offense has mostly logged thru the first two weeks, though WR Deion Branch finally played put up a worthy #1 WR game. The Cardinals dominated the Seahawks undersized defensive front, and that’s a problem against a Bengals offense that can both pound the ball (with RB Rudi Johnson) and air it out (QB Carson Palmer to Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh) behind a line that handled a very similar defense last week. This figures to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. I normally discount the trends that gamblers live by, but there are two that are hard to ignore on this game. The Bengals have never failed to cover the spread in SEA, and the Seahawks are 2-10 against the AFC when coming off a divisional loss the prior week. I almost never pick against SEA at home, but Cincy is the pick here. Bengals 37, Seahawks 33.
Arizona (22) at Baltimore (10): Strange but true: both teams have given up 40 points and scored 40 points. That 40 points allowed is a positive for the Cards but a disappointment for the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense has shown chinks in their armor in covering intermediate routes and underneath crossing routes, and the Cards have one of the best in the business at those in WR Anquan Boldin. Arizona appears to have found their running game, and if they can make superb S Ed Reed focus on stopping the run, QB Matt Leinart can find WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson downfield. The Ravens offense has not looked comfortable or cohesive, as both QB Steve McNair and LT Jon Ogden are banged up and showing signs of being in their mid-30s. The Ravens still have a major home-field advantage (13-2 in their last 15), and these Cardinals have yet to prove they can go into a hostile environ and steal a win. Baltimore 24, Arizona 13.
Windy & Cool Games
NY Giants (28) at Washington (13): Washington is 2-0 despite losing the right side of their OL to season-ending injuries already. Most OLs can survive one injury, but replacing two starters in two weeks is a debilitating challenge. Just ask the Panthers from last year. The Ethnic Slurs catch a break against the Giants, who have just two sacks (both from Justin Tuck) and perhaps the worst covering secondary in the league. I’ve been quite impressed with the play of Washington’s secondary, but Eli Manning appears to be making the next step forward and Plaxico Burress has played as well as any WR not named Randy Moss this year. Derrick Ward has performed respectably at RB, but teams are often dropping 7 quickly into coverage to slow down the passing game. The Skins secondary can handle the passing game without much assistance, leaving the fast LBs to focus on stopping the run and making plays. Freakish stat alert: Skins QB Jason Campbell has completed 28 passes, and 21 of those went for 1st downs. That’s 75%, and the league average is a hair over 52%. Sooner or later something is going to give, but it almost certainly won’t be against a woeful Giants D. Washington stays undefeated with a 31-21 home win.
Detroit (14) at Philadelphia (21): Everything in this matchup appears to favor Detroit, and as a lifelong Lions fan that scares me. The Lions have 4 good WRs and aren’t afraid to use them, while the Eagles will be without top CB Lito Sheppard. The Eagles best player, S Brian Dawkins, suffered a nasty neck injury last week and almost certainly won’t be 100% if he plays. The Eagles giant OL has not played to last year’s strong level, and now they draw a quick DL playing as well as any in the league. QB Donovan McNabb made some dumb comments this week, but he should really focus on why he has a career record of 8-12 against Tampa-2 base defenses, which the Lions employ.
Expect more from Lions RB Tatum Bell, who is running well despite limited carries. The Eagles should have loads of success using shifty RB Brian Westbrook out of the backfield and on delayed handoffs, but only if McNabb shows he can connect downfield, something he’s struggled with this year. Like I said, all signs point to the Lions. Which is why I’m taking the Eagles, because I’ve learned that nothing is ever as good as it appears for the Lions. Philadelphia somehow manages a 27-24 win.
Minnesota (18) at Kansas City (30): First team to 10 points wins. Seriously. I could break down the minutia of matchups between a very good Vikings run defense against a floundering Chiefs OL, or the impact of the return of pass rushing DE Jared Allen to KC, or how there’s not a WR on either team who would make the 2-deep on at least 15 other teams. But it will really come down to which team can muster 10 points first. That means a kicking battle, and I like Ryan Longwell more than Dave Rayner in the ex-Packers kicking derby. Minnesota 13, Kansas City 6.
St. Louis (24) at Tampa Bay (16): No team has disappointed me more over the first two weeks than the Rams. Losing their two best offensive linemen, LT Orlando Pace and RG Richie Incognito, has stymied RB Steven Jackson’s record-setting quest. The Rams D is improving, led by active rookie DT Clifton Ryan, but this is still a team that needs to outscore you to beat you. The Bucs young OL is showing very positive signs, and RB Cadillac Williams displayed great tenacity last week while pounding out 2 TDs despite injured ribs. Tampa runs lots of short routes that isolate their WRs on opposing safeties and LBs, and the Rams lack the talent at those positions to answer. The Bucs back 7 on defense is playing quite well, well enough to hold the Rams explosive passing game to fewer points than their own offense can score. Tampa Bay 24, St. Louis 20.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning Games
Carolina (12) at Atlanta (32): How bad is Atlanta when QB Joey Harrington is longing for the good ole days in Detroit? They brought in Byron Leftwich to help in a couple of weeks, but he’s significantly less mobile than Harrington and Joey is running for his life on every pass attempt. Hard to get a true bearing on the Panthers, who have played one great game and one clunker, but last week’s loss to the Texans was punctuated by dropped passes, ill-timed turnovers, and nobody on offense other than Steve Smith showing up. That sounds a lot like last year’s Panthers, which does not bode well for this year’s Panthers. The Falcons have rightfully earned their place at the bottom of the power poll, but they do have enough defensive playmakers to make the Panthers pay for sloppy play. I’d really like to pick the Falcons in the upset here, but bringing back 47-year old K Morten Andersen and his 40-yard max range on FGs means a team that has scored just 10 points in two games is even more limited in scoring potential. Carolina 24, Atlanta 10.
Miami (25) at New York Jets (29): The Jets cannot protect whomever is at QB, and that task won’t be any easier against a very solid Miami front 7. The Dolphins secondary has major issues in intermediate and deep coverage, but the Jets have attempted the fewest passes in those ranges over the last two seasons. The Jets D is highly vulnerable to runs between the tackles, but Miami RB Ronnie Brown looks slower and more indecisive each week. If Brown gets it going and the Dolphins unveil the Reagan Mauia show (he’s a 270 pound rookie FB with the footwork of a ballerina), QB Trent Green should have some success downfield. If enigmatic WR Chris Chambers shows up, that is. There are so many question marks and mistake-prone key players on both sides that I’m just going to flip this shiny gold dollar coin I got from the Post Office this morning. It’s heads, which means home team. Jets 17, Dolphins 14, perhaps in overtime.
Buffalo (31) at New England (1): To the Bills backers who faithfully gather every week at the Buffalo Wild Wings on 44th St. in Grand Rapids--this might be a good week to stay home and enjoy an 84 degree fall afternoon. There isn’t one match-up in this contest that the Patriots don’t dominate. New England 36, Buffalo 10.
Cleveland (27) at Oakland (23): Lost amidst all the hoopla in Cleveland over their stunning 51-45 victory last week is the fact the Browns gave up 45 points. I understand the optimism, as WR Braylon Edwards finally brought his #3 overall draftee game to play and the high-priced left side of the OL just annihilated the Bengals defense. Oakland was robbed of a victory over the Broncos and has played much better overall than last season. The emergence of Lamont Jordan as the RB they thought he was really helps an offense without much cohesion. The Derek Anderson who torched Cincy can also beat a Raiders secondary that has not played well aside from Nnamde Asomugha. But if he’s pressured by Derrick Burgess & Co. the way he was in the Week 1 slaughtering by Pittsburgh, the Raiders should win comfortably so long as they control their propensity for turnovers. The embattled-but-improving Raiders OL gets a stiff test with Kamerion Wimbley, the best pass-rushing OLB this side of Shawne Merriman. Raiders 30, Browns 24.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Game
South Carolina at LSU: The Gamecocks are ruthlessly efficient on offense, but that will be severely tested by an LSU defense that doesn’t just attack, they maim. I’m much more confident in LSU now that I’ve seen them dominate with backup QB Ryan Perriloux. South Carolina is talented enough to keep it close, but I think the LSU DL will overwhelm the SC OL and disrupt QB Blake Mitchell. LSU 27, South Carolina 16.
Bonus Games Penn State 27, Michigan 23
Arkansas 33, Kentucky 31
Ohio 17, Wyoming 13, go Bobcats!
