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Football Meteorology For Week 5
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 5th October, 2007 - 12:59 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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The NFL season is through with the first quarter, and we have seen some major surprises thus far. We’re down to four unbeatens and three winless teams, and history tells us those numbers will be no greater than one each over the next two weeks.
So far there appears to be quite a stratification of teams. New England, Indy, Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle all seem heads and shoulders above the rest, followed by a cluster of playoff potential teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay. There is a huge glut of interchangeable, mediocre teams in the next grouping, followed by some truly awful bottom feeders.
Now is the time for the casual gambler to cease betting on games, because the house as a large enough sample size to set more accurate odds. That should mean forecasting the games should be easier too, and last week’s forecast bears that out. I nailed 11 of 14 matchups on a truly glorious weekend for the Risdon household. It’s not often that all the teams I grew up rooting for all win, but the Browns, Lions, Bucs, and Ohio State all won, with the added bonus of Notre Dame going down in flames once again and my beloved Indians starting the AL playoffs.
This week features several games with forecast models that could go either way. Once again the weather shouldn’t be a factor in almost any game, unlike the lightning storm that delayed last week’s Raiders-Dolphins game in Miami.
Sunny Games
Tampa Bay (7) at Indianapolis (3): The Colts get another test at home, this time with the resurgent Bucs. Tampa’s defense is flying all over the field and getting great play from MLB Barrett Ruud and rookie S Tanard Jackson. This game could very well come down to how much, if at all, injured Colts stars Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai play. The Colts have a bye after this game, and two weeks of rest would do wonders for the playoff stretch drive. The Bucs have injury woes of their own, as RB Cadillac Williams and LT Luke Petitgout both suffered season-ending injuries last week. Tampa Bay is one of the few teams with enough speed at LB to handle Colts TE Dallas Clark, and they do a great job of filling rushing lanes quickly. But the Bucs D struggles in the red zone, and to have any chance of beating the Colts you have to make them kick FGs instead of extra points. With Cadillac I would like the Bucs, but Michael Pittman is more of a Buick, and you don’t beat the Colts without maximum horsepower, even when their own horses are running near empty. Indianapolis 23, Tampa Bay 17.
Seattle (5) at Pittsburgh (6): Pittsburgh finally got challenged in a game, and Coach Tomlin cannot be pleased with the results. Seattle has the type of offense that can stymie Dick Lebeau’s blitz-happy 3-4 Steeler defense, using 3 and 4 WR sets and taking shots downfield. That means the Steelers safeties have to help more in coverage, because the CBs are vulnerable. Injuries to NT Casey Hampton and S Troy Polamalu, the two best players on Pittsburgh’s defense, could tilt the matchup even further in Seattle’s favor. The Seahawks employ a defense very similar to the one the Cardinals used last week to shut down the Steelers offense, with speedy, physical LBs swarming and steady safety play taking away the run after catch threat. But the Steelers have found a star in WR Santonio Holmes, and RB Willie Parker can break the one big play that will likely decide this close contest. I’ll take the Steelers for no other reason than home field advantage. Pittsburgh 27, Seattle 26.
Pleasant but Cool Games
Detroit (11) at Washington (13): Raise your hand if, back in August, you thought this game could have major playoff implications. Didn’t think so. But the winner here is well positioned to control one of the NFC Wild Card spots. The Lions have feasted on bad QB play, but got lit up by the one good QB they faced in Donovan McNabb. Jason Campbell isn’t in McNabb’s league, but he’s a lot better than Brian Griese, Josh McCown, or Tarvaris Jackson. Campbell’s problem is that his WRs are not, certainly not if Santana Moss can’t play. That leaves just one wideout with a catch this season, which will help out the Lions beleaguered secondary. The Ethnic Slurs must face a fearsome Lions DL without the starting right side of their offensive line. But the Lions have RT issues of their own, as inexperienced Jonathan Scott likely takes over for Mr. Stupid Penalty, a.k.a George Foster. Another matchup that figures to figure prominently here--the Skins very good special teams are a huge advantage, as the only thing the Lions special teams do well is block FGs. Detroit’s propensity for turning the ball over and reliance on forcing turnovers to get their defense off the field makes them highly unpredictable and unreliable to forecast, so the Ethnic Slurs are the pick in a game that could easily be a Detroit blowout win. Washington 31, Detroit 27.
Jacksonville (9) at Kansas City (20): Two teams with lousy offenses but very stout, energetic defenses meet in Arrowhead. Chiefs rookie WR Dwayne Bowe is quickly emerging as a go-to target, and the battle between Bowe and Jags CB Rashean Mathis should be a great one. Bowe will have to be awesome or else the Jags excellent run defense will dominate the weak Chiefs OL, though that unit played great in the 2nd half against the Chargers last week. I like Jacksonville’s physical defense to give the Jags offense enough opportunities to put up points. Jacksonville moves to a very quiet 3-1 by beating the Chiefs 17-13.
Chicago (25) at Green Bay (4): My schaudenfreudian feelings towards the obnoxiously overconfident Bears fans are quelling, because it’s hard to say this is the Bears team anyone thought we’d see. So many key defensive injuries have stripped Chicago of any resemblance of a good team, and this was a team that was heavily reliant on the defense winning games. The Packers have the worst running game by a wide margin, but the 31st ranked team (the Lions) erupted for a league-record 34 4th quarter points against the Bears last week, and Brett Favre looks very sharp and focused. The Packers D should continue the woes of the Bears punchless, turnover-prone offense. Green Bay 30, Chicago 10.
San Diego (18) at Denver (10): If the Chargers want to right the ship, this is an ideal week to do it. Denver will likely be without RB Travis Henry, who is both injured and facing a year-long drug suspension; his backup is undrafted rookie Selvin Young, though Young has shown great burst in limited duty this far. Denver gives up rushing yards in bunches, and the San Diego OL finally gave Ladanian Tomlinson some running room last week. The Broncos poor special teams means the Chargers should win the battle of field position, and even though their vaunted D is struggling a bit, San Diego’s defense is not the type to give up repeated long drives, certainly not to a backup rookie RB and a young QB (Jay Cutler) with his best target (WR Javon Walker) hobbled. It’s tough to pick against Denver at home, but sooner or later lightning is going to strike for LT & Co., and the Broncos keep getting worse each week. San Diego 24, Denver 20.
Windy with Drizzle Games
Baltimore (12) at San Francisco (27): The 49ers face the prospect of starting aged backup Trent Dilfer at QB, but can he really be any worse than now-injured Alex Smith? Smith is in the bottom 2 in every meaningful stat except INTs and looked worse each week. The Ravens D is showing chinks in the armor, but the major chink is giving up big plays. That’s not something the 49ers have shown any ability to produce, despite having stud RB Frank Gore. The Ravens will win big if they bench Steve McNair, who is clearly struggling with a groin problem that impacts his accuracy, for big-armed Kyle Boller. Ravens 27, 49ers 6.
Cleveland (17) at New England (1): The Browns have made loads of progress--the OL is legit, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow have stepped up, Jamal Lewis looks spry, Leon Williams and D’Qwell Jackson are emerging forces at LB, Derek Anderson has quelled the Brady Quinn mania. That’s all well and good, but the Patriots are on a mission, and that mission involves beating opponents into submission with a cruel precision. Cleveland has to hope the Patriots are looking ahead to the big showdown with Dallas next weekend, but Bill Belichick teams do a great job not falling into those traps. Somehow the Patriots face 3 of the 4 worst run defenses in a row, so they don’t have to push dinged up RB Lawrence Maroney. One glimmer of hope for Cleveland: the Browns have a great red zone offense, while the Pats have the worst red zone D in the league. Enjoy beating the Yankees, Cleveland fans, because the Browns are about to be the fire hydrant to the Patriots’ Great Dane. New England 40, Cleveland 17.
Carolina (19) at New Orleans (28): It’s still pretty early in the season, but this shapes up as an absolute make-or-break game for the Saints. Coming off their bye winless, with a brutal pass defense (kinda expected) and major issues on offense (hugely unexpected), New Orleans cannot drop a divisional home game and expect to sniff an 8-win season, let alone the playoffs. Carolina has major offensive issues of their own, and it’s quite often the same ones that plague the Saints: the right side of the OL unable to protect the passer or open holes, inconsistent WR play, unassertive running backs. The Panthers D will sorely miss LB Dan Morgan, out once again with a major injury. The Saints offense and the Panthers defense are perhaps the two most underachieving units in football this year, and whichever can get it together in this matchup should win. It’s a lot easier to see Carolina at 2-3 than New Orleans at 0-4, especially with frazzled QB David Carr leading the Panthers, so the Saints are the pick here. New Orleans 27, Carolina 24.
NY Jets (26) at NY Giants (15): The Giants have two weaknesses: the defense is vulnerable to intermediate and deep pass routes, and the G-Men don’t run well on 1st down (26th in the league). Fortunately for the Giants, the Jets have no ability to take advantage of either weakness. Anyone who watched QB Chad Pennington playing slow-pitch softball against the Bills last week knows the Jets are incapable of doing anything but running loads of short crosses and drag routes. That means the Giant safeties can cheat up and focus on stuffing the run and making tackles. The Jets have respectable run defense numbers overall, but are nearly a full yard worse on 1st down (4.6 ypc) than overall (3.7 ypc). The Jets have no pass rush (3 sacks in 4 games, 31st in QB pressures), and poor CB play (evidenced by getting eviscerated by Bills rookie Trent Edwards, seeing his first action), and that’s not good against an improving Eli Manning and an on-fire Plaxico Burress. The Giants come in off a record-setting devastation of the rival Eagles, while the Jets looked punchless and toothless in a disheartening loss to previously winless Buffalo. All signs point to the Giants in the battle of New Jersey. That typically means “upset special”, but I’m not biting despite a strong urge to take the Jets. Giants 30, Jets 24.
Batten Down the Hatches Games
Miami (31) at Houston (21): Gut check time for the winless Dolphins, because they’re not likely to get a better matchup to win against until November. The Texans are woefully injured, as 3 of the top 4 WRs and the starting RB are all likely to miss the game, and backup RB Ron Dayne is always battling some malady, even when he’s perfectly healthy. This is one of those games that only die-hard fans of either team should pay any attention. Miami wins thanks to Houston’s injury issues and inability of their defense to get off the field on 3rd down. Dolphins 26, Texans 13.
Atlanta (29) at Tennessee (8): The Falcons finally entered the win column last week, led by great play from QB Joey Harrington. Yep, you read that right. I always maintained that Joey could be a very good NFL QB if given time to get into a rhythm, and the Falcons OL did an admirable job against a pretty good Texans front 4. They will need to be just as sharp to hold back the DL combo of Al Haynesworth and Kyle Vandenbosch, who have both been consistently outstanding and disruptive so far. The Falcons defense should be better equipped to handle a mobile QB like Vince Young after seeing Michael Vick in practice for years, but they’ve struggled with teams like the Titans who spread the ball around instead of focusing on one primary WR. And Young can kill them if they try to take away his receivers by dropping the LBs and rolling the safeties deep. I have a feeling the Falcons will make a good game of it, but these Titans are getting real good at closing out wins. Tennessee 27, Atlanta 17.
Arizona (14) at St. Louis (32): Just what the struggling, winless Rams need: the physical, speedy, aggressive Cardinals defense, which shut down the high-flying Steelers last week. St. Louis will try Gus Frerotte at QB, but no Steven Jackson and an awful OL all but ensures he won’t fare any better. The Cards OL continues to get better, and Edgerrin James is running with a confidence and vigor we haven’t seen in a couple of years. I don’t like the QB platoon, but it seems to be working for Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Sooner or later Matt Leinart will figure out that he could put a quick end to the experiment by putting max effort into practice and preparations and listening to his coaches. The Rams leaky secondary is a great place to get back into rhythm for Leinart. Arizona K Neil Rackers could have a big game in the Cards 33-13 victory over the hapless Rams.
Dallas (2) at Buffalo (30): Dallas brings the best offense in the league to the shores of Lake Erie to face the decimated, struggling Bills defense. Poor Buffalo can’t even rely on the weather helping them out, as record highs are expected across the Great Lakes region all weekend. Bills rookie QB Trent Edwards showed me a lot in his debut last week, and the Buffalo OL is game. But the Cowboys excel at bringing pressure, and CB Anthony Henry is playing great right now. The emergence of Patrick Crayton at WR and the great chemistry between QB Tony Romo and TE Jason Witten spells trouble for an injury-ravaged Bills secondary. The Cowboys might not top the 40-point mark in this one, but Buffalo will be lucky to stay within 2 touchdowns. Dallas 33, Buffalo 13.
Premature Byes
Philadelphia (22), Cincinnati (24), Oakland (16), Minnesota (23)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Game
Last week featured a bunch of major upsets, and the forecast here suffered as well, going 1-3 to drop the season record to 11-5. As always, go Ohio Bobcats!
Florida at LSU: The Bayou Bengals have the perfect type of defense to slow down Gators QB Tim Tebow, with a great pass rush from the front 4 that allows the LBs to spy on the mobile Tebow. The Florida secondary is the weak point of their otherwise stellar team, and LSU has the skill at QB and WR to take advantage. There might not be 75 combined yards of rushing in this game, as both teams have loads of defensive speed and reliable tacklers. The LSU special teams and raucous home field will be the difference in a Tiger victory that should solidify them at #1 in the polls. LSU 29, Florida 25.
Other Games: Ohio State 33, Purdue 24
Cincinnati 44, Rutgers 31
Oklahoma 36, Texas 30
Jeff Risdon can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
