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Football Meteorology For Week 6
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 12th October, 2007 - 12:32 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Last week’s forecast was 11-3 for a 2nd straight week. The weather models enjoyed the clarity of high pressure, clearing the clouds from my head and producing sunny skies. Colder weather has settled in here in West Michigan, but once again most games this Sunday will be played in sunny, temperate stadiums.
In honor of the recent shocking realization that the greatest rock album of my lifetime, Appetite for Destruction by Guns N Roses, was released 20 years ago, I’ve been on a G-N-R bender lately. Not a bender in the Steven Adler style, or even Duff McKagan style, but just a musical immersion into a band that truly changed my musical taste for the harder and better. Hopefully all the headbanging and air guitar hasn’t altered my ability to predict football games!
'Paradise City' game
New England (1) at Dallas (3): You’ve no doubt heard endless hype and back-and-forth on the key matchups in this, the marquee game of the season. So I’ll present it to you in a different way. Examine the motivations for these teams: Dallas has to keep winning to stay ahead of the rest of their division and make believers out of a skeptical nation that loves to hate them, to prove they are for real. The Patriots are gunning for a perfect season that washes away the overhyped taint of camera-gate and secures them in history as the greatest team of all time. I might be putting too much into it, but a team credibly seeking eternal acclaim has the edge over a team seeking to stay a game ahead in the race for homefield advantage in perhaps the worst overall conference in history. Patriots 33, Cowboys 25.
'Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door' games
Tennessee (5) at Tampa Bay (10): Strong matchup between two teams with better-than-expected defenses and plucky QBs, and both share a loss to the might Colts. The key battle will pit DE Kyle Vandenbosch and DT Al Haynesworth of the Titans against the inexperienced duo of Bucs LT Anthony Davis and LG Arron Sears. The Titans duo is consistently disrupting offenses and allowing their speedy LBs to make lots of plays without having to shed lots of blocks. I trust Vince Young more than Jeff Garcia to take care of the ball when forced to improvise, and with the Bucs down to their 3rd string RB the impetus will be on Garcia to win the game, not just manage it. That has never been Garcia’s strength, and this Tennessee secondary is one of the most pleasant surprises of the young season. Bet the under in a Titans 16-13 victory.
Washington (9) at Green Bay (6): We’ve got a good debate going on the message boards here about which team is the 2nd best in the NFC. This game will go a long ways towards settling that fairly pointless debate, or at least eliminate the loser from the conversation. The Ethnic Slurs played a simply fantastic defensive game against the Lions last week, showing off their impressive secondary but also the ability of their front 4 to generate consistent pressure. Packers C Scott Wells will miss the game with a broken eye, which means their already pathetic running game will be more anemic. The Washington defense is one of the few that actually wants you to throw the ball against them, and Green Bay is heavily reliant on Brett Favre being awesome to win. Favre was not awesome last week, and the fumbling of WR James Jones cost them a win. Jones should ask Bill Schroeder about Favre’s thoughts on WR fumbles. The Packers do have a great defense of their own, and the versatility of their LBs is a major asset against a Slurs offense that relies heavily on checkdown routes and yards after the catch. I think these Ethnic Slurs are legit, but they don’t have as favorable a matchup against the Packers that they did against Detroit, plus the game is in the Land of Cheese and the home team is coming off a bitter loss. Green Bay 20, Washington 17.
'Don’t Cry' (for having to watch) games
Carolina (15) at Arizona (11): This game is a great example of the importance of having a reliable backup QB. I’ve been quite impressed with Cards QB Kurt Warner, who has looked confident and accurate in relieving, and now replacing, Matt Leinart. New Panthers starter David Carr still seems a bit shellshocked from the brutal beatings he took in Houston the last few years, but he’s not helped by having Steve Smith as his only real weapon. The new offensive line system in Carolina isn’t working any better than the old one, and Deangelo Williams looks downright confused running behind it. Making matters worse is that Carr has a bad back, and behind him is Vinny Testaverde (yes Mom, he’s still alive!) Arizona is getting very solid all-around play from their defensive front 7, and the ascension of Darnell Dockett and Karlos Dansby to Pro Bowl-caliber level of play presents real problems for a Panthers offense that lost nearly 50 points of QB rating when Jake Delhomme went down. Carolina has recorded the fewest sacks with just 2 in 5 games, ranks 31st in QB pressures, and is dead last in both INTs and passes defensed. For a team with a lot of name talent and high draft picks across the defense, that’s either going to change quickly or a very bad sign. I’m leaning towards the latter, and if Kurt Warner has time, he’s still a lethal thrower. Arizona 27, Carolina 6.
Oakland (19) at San Diego (12): Oakland has figured out how to run the ball, and that’s a very good development against the Chargers, who recorded 14 sacks in the two meetings last season with the Raiders. The Chargers exorcised their early season demons last week in destroying the Broncos. Oakland has a solid defense but the regression of CB Fabian Washington and the thinking-too-much tentativeness of S Mike Huff spells trouble against a San Diego team loaded with both vinegar and confidence. So long as Philip Rivers doesn’t give the game away (and he might) with INTs or bad throws, San Diego rolls back into the AFC West driver’s seat. Chargers 36, Raiders 14.
'It’s So Easy' (to pick this) game
Miami (31) at Cleveland (20): The Dolphins blew perhaps their best chance to win this year last week, and now they head to Cleveland to face a Browns team that played the Patriots a lot tighter than anyone else has thus far. Take away the first and last turnovers and the Browns were almost dead even with the mighty Pats. You can’t take those away, of course, but the Dolphins beleaguered defense isn’t very likely to duplicate them either. Expect a lot of running by Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, and company, as these teams rank 30th and 31st in run defense. It speaks volumes about just how desperate the Dolphins are that nondescript vet Cleo Lemon takes over at QB instead of rookie John Beck. Lemon probably gives them a better chance to win right now, but Beck is allegedly the QB of the future, and if this team isn’t building for the future soon, the future isn’t going to be any brighter than it is right now for what is clearly the worst team in the AFC. The Browns special teams and hit-or-miss secondary are both significantly better than their Miami counterparts, and the Browns OL is showing weekly improvement. As long as Anderson doesn’t turn the ball over often, the Browns should win comfortably. Cleveland 30, Miami 21.
(Monday) 'Nighttrain' game
NY Giants (14) at Atlanta (28): The Giants are doing a good job of beating up on weak offenses, and that description fits Atlanta to a “T”. Two starting linemen are out for the Falcons, really bad news when facing a Giants front 4 that brings loads of pressure against good lines. Falcons QB Joey Harrington doesn’t exactly handle pressure well, though he has shown more of an inclination to look downfield, which is where the holes are in the Giants D. I’m curious how the RB-by-committee will work for the Giants now that Derrick Ward has proven he deserves carries even with a healthy Brandon Jacobs. New York is a team that is hard to beat when they’re not beating themselves, and right now Eli Manning & Co. are playing some sharp football. Giants 31, Falcons 16.
'Pretty Tied Up' games
Cincinnati (24) at Kansas City (21): The KC offense has major issues, starting with the OL; the Bengals defense is awful, but the best unit is their DL. Cincy comes off a bye desperate to salvage what sure looks like another lost season. The Chiefs have to hope they can put loads of pressure on Carson Palmer, because the Bengals enjoy a huge advantage in the WR/CB matchups. Not having LT Willie Anderson for the first time in his career won’t help, but when teams are pretty evenly matched, you go with the team that has the better OL and QB, and those check marks go the Bengals handily. Cincinnati 26, Kansas City 20.
Houston (22) at Jacksonville (7): Just when you get all excited about the Texans after their impressive 2-0 start, the wheels come off. It’s due in no small part to injuries, but teams have figured out you can consistently beat the Houston defense by throwing behind their run-oriented LBs and in front of their gotta-help-the-weak CBs-deep safeties. The Jaguars are run-oriented, but QB David Garrard has shown good accuracy and a willingness to spread the ball around nicely. Jacksonville’s defense leads the league in limiting 1st down yards, and with the Texans still missing their top 3 WRs and rotating banged up RBs, Houston doesn’t figure to have much success breaking the big play or sustaining long drives. It was good enough last week against the inept Dolphins, but the Jaguars are very quietly playing very good football in all facets of the game. Jaguars 20, Texans 13.
Minnesota (25) at Chicago (18): I’m bitterly disappointed that the Bears pulled the plug on the Rex Grossman fiasco, because this matchup might have been the first in NFL history with more completions to the other team than to the offense. The banged-up Bears are getting healthier, both physically and mentally after a nice win in Green Bay. Adrian Peterson is the kind of RB that gives the Bears problems, but Chicago’s defense typically mauls one-dimensional offenses and the Vikings have yet to prove they can throw the ball with any sort of consistency with Tarvaris Jackson under center. Minnesota is coming off a bye, and their opportunistic defense can give the Bears issues if they don’t establish the ability to throw the ball early on. Because the game is in Chicago and because the Bears seem to be recapturing their swagger, I really like the Monsters of the Midway in this one. Chicago gets right back into the playoff mix with a 27-10 win.
'You’re Crazy' (to watch these) games
St. Louis (32) at Baltimore (13): Baltimore no longer has the airtight defense of old, but they still have more than enough defensive ability to snuff out the Rams anemic attack. St. Louis did get a much-needed shot in the arm from Gus Frerotte, but there’s a reason why he’s reverted to being a backup every time he’s been handed the starting job. Baltimore’s defense excels at taking away the #2 and #3 WRs and throws to the RB, which is basically what the Rams featured last week in their best outing to date. The Ravens have offensive issues of their own, namely Steve McNair playing like a 50-year old. But the Rams can’t stop anyone, either running or passing. The Ravens slog their way to 4-2 with a 26-16 win.
Philadelphia (23) at NY Jets (30): The inept Jets are exactly what the struggling Eagles need to right their listing ship. Coming off a bye and in real danger of losing hope, you can bet that Philly will come with their “A” game. The Jets have absolutely no downfield offense and probably couldn’t pressure the QB with 12 guys playing D. Unless the Manginius can conjur a pass rush, a QB who can throw a ball more than 20 yards, and WRs who would be able to catch said ball with any sort of reliability, this one could be real ugly. And a special memo to Jets fans clamoring for Kellen Clemens to take over for Chad Pennington--arm strength isn’t everything, and that’s the only thing Clemens has that’s better than Pennington. Think back to the Bobby Hebert-Jeff George Falcons of the mid-90s. Philadelphia 33, New York 13.
New Orleans (29) at Seattle (8): Every sign points to Seattle keeping the Saints winless. The Seahawks are rebounding off a brutal loss to Pittsburgh, where they got manhandled in every way. They get the best home field advantage in football to get the wind back in their sails. New Orleans cannot defend the pass or get reliable pressure despite having two great DEs. The Saints come in off a game they had several chances to win against a team with nowhere near the offense of the Seahawks. All that would have you believe Seattle is a lock here. But there is simply too much talent on the Saints for them to keep losing. I’m no longer expecting a playoff run turnaround, but in a season where many strange things have already happened, another one is about to go down in Seattle. The Saints turn up the pass rush and Reggie Bush takes advantage of the over-aggressiveness of the Seahawks LBs, leading the Saints to a surprising 24-20 victory.
'Use Your Illusion', because these teams have a bye:
Detroit (16), Buffalo (27), Denver (17), Indianapolis (2), Pittsburgh (4), San Francisco (26)
'Mr. Brownstone' game
That song was my favorite drinking song during my undergrad years at Ohio University. Somebody play it at the Junction in Athens during homecoming this weekend for me…
Missouri at Oklahoma: Probable precursor to the Big 12 Title game, especially if Oklahoma wins. Missouri has the best QB you’ve never heard of, Chase Daniel. They also run a funky hybrid of the spread offense, often using 2 TEs barely split from the linemen. The Sooners looked like they got back on track against Texas, but any time a team is that dependant on a freshman QB playing great you have to worry. I like Sam Bradford, and Oklahoma has a lot of good weapons, but Missouri is adept at playing just enough defense at the right times to secure victory. They destroyed Nebraska last week and handled a good Illinois team earlier this year, and I know those close to the program desperately want a win here to elevate their national prominence. But it often takes some painful losses for emerging programs before they secure the breakthrough victory, witness Florida State in the 80s, Tennessee in the mid-90s, and Virginia Tech in the late 90s. Mizzou hasn’t had that signature win over a major power yet, and while it’s certainly no upset if they get it here, this game is a case where I need to see them do it before I know they can do it. Oklahoma 36, Missouri 28.
Other games:
LSU 39, Kentucky 27
California 40, Oregon State 38
Michigan 30, Purdue 24
