If Favre comes back, he better stick it out for a full season whether he starts, is a back-up, or gets benched several games into the season.
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Another solid forecast in Week 6, as the weather models correctly predicted 9 of the 13 games. This week features several games that make me glad my beloved Cleveland Indians are still alive in the ALCS and hopefully in the World Series by the time the Sunday games are played. Something that caught my eye is the fact that all the games on the slate are intra-conference, which means long-term playoff implications in several contests.
Sunny Game of the Week
Indianapolis (2) at Jacksonville (5): The Colts come off their bye and face the impressive Jaguars. These teams rank in the upper echelon of pretty much every statistical category and are pretty evenly matched across the board. With one notable exception: Indy’s pass defense against the Jaguar air attack. JAX throws just enough to give their strong running game a breather, but the Colts' back 7 is very good in coverage and makes lots of plays. Jags' QB David Garrard has not yet thrown an INT this year; some people see that as a positive sign of his development and improved WR play. But, I see it the other way: based on his track record, Garrard is overdue for throwing a pick or three. You cannot beat the Colts unless you win the turnover battle, and Indy isn’t going to give it away more than once. The Jaguars will rip off some big chunks of rushing yards, but they settle for FG's in the red zone far too often to outscore the Colts, who get RB Joseph Addai and WR Marvin Harrison back in the lineup. Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 16.
Clear Skies and Seasonably Warm games:
Arizona (14) at Washington (10): I love games where a strength matches up against a strength. This tilt features a very good Arizona WR corps against a very good Ethnic Slurs secondary. The bigger question here is the status of Cards' QB Kurt Warner, who tore ligaments in his non-throwing elbow last week. If he can’t go, there is a significant drop-off to Tim Rattay, and that’s problematic against a Washington front that has consistently generated QB pressure. Arizona has the ability to pound the ball between the tackles, and if LB Marcus Washington can’t go, the Cards won’t need Rattay to win the game for them. But Arizona will be missing its own defensive playmaker in Karlos Dansby, and that means the duo of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts will have a lot more room to run. I’ve simulated this game 25 times in my mind, and the Slurs won 13-12, so they’re the pick. Washington 22, Arizona 17.
Tampa Bay (8) at Detroit (15): The Lions are a much better team at home, and they’re coming off a bye week with their premier RB, Kevin Jones, finally healthy. Tampa has the secondary personnel and scheme to counter the 4-wide sets of the Lions' offense as good as any other team. But the Bucs are on their 4th RB of the season in newcomer Michael Bennett, and QB Jeff Garcia doesn’t have the big arm to exploit the weak Detroit safeties. There are a lot of Lions who would love to dismember Garcia, who napalmed the Ambassador Bridge on his way out of Detroit after being demonstrably worse than Joey Harrington. The key to this game is OL play because both defenses are basically the same design, relying heavily on generating pressure from the front 4. Last week the Bucs struggled badly with a Titans' DL that isn’t as consistently good as this Lions' front plays at home. Detroit’s OL is always a crapshoot, but the Lions have the weaponry I the short passing game to overcome poor pass blocking, a luxury Garcia still didn’t have in Detroit and still doesn’t have now. Detroit 26, Tampa Bay 24.
Pittsburgh (4) at Denver (18): I’m very near the end of my optimistic patience with the Broncos, who have been manhandled in losing their last 3 games. Even worse for Denver is the loss of C Tom Nalen, which means a reshuffled OL gets thrown into the fire against Casey Hampton, Clark Haggans & Co.. Denver also has major issues stopping the run, and the Steelers run the ball with the tenacity that Britney Spears seeks attention. Pittsburgh keeps rolling with a 33-13 spanking of the host Broncos.
Overcast and Breezy games
Tennessee (9) at Houston (23): The questionable status of Vince Young and his strained quadriceps makes this a tough forecast. If he doesn’t play, the Titans are in trouble because their WR's are really struggling to get open, and backup Kerry Collins isn’t the type of QB that makes his WR's any better. The Texans' passing offense is starting to get fired up again, as Kevin Walter has more receiving yards in the last two weeks than any Titan has in 5 games this season. Neither team has run the ball with any sustained success since the first two weeks, though I’m getting real tired of the inaccurate perception of the Texans' run defense as being great. They rank 22nd in adjusted run defense and 28th in yards per carry, including 31st on ypc on 1st down. Even though the Titans have averaged under 3 ypc in each of their last 3 games, their OL is good enough to allow LenDale White and Chris Brown to punch through and rack up some first downs. Still, Houston has won the last 4 meetings, and I’ve felt all season the Titans have been overachieving. If Young plays, Titans win 20-17; no Young, Texans win 16-10.
Kansas City (19) at Oakland (21): Oakland has lost 16 consecutive AFC West games. Some would take that as an indicator that the Chiefs are in good shape here, but I’m a believer in the “blind squirrel” theory, and there are nuts everywhere in the Black Hole. As long as Daunte Culpepper takes care of the football and someone blocks Jared Allen with any degree of competence, the Raiders should be able to pull this one out. The matchup between KC stud rookie WR Dwayne Bowe and OAK All-Pro worthy CB Nnamde Asomugha should be fun to watch. Oakland 24, Kansas City 20.
Minnesota (22) at Dallas (3): Tough matchup for the Cowboys. Dallas likes to run the ball between the tackles and throw intermediate routes to the TE, but the Vikings absolutely dominate the inside run and do a very solid job covering the TE. The Vikings found a lethal weapon in superb rookie RB Adrian Peterson, who makes over-aggressive defenses pay for abandoning their gap responsibility, and the Cowboys fit that bill too often for their own good. But the Cowboys do have Roy Williams, the worst safety in the league in pass coverage but among the best against the run, and because the Vikings have major consistency (and talent) issues at QB and WR he’ll be free to abandon his coverage duties and illegally horse-collar tackle Peterson out of the game. I’m very curious how these Cowboys come off a tough loss, especially against a team they never seem to beat. The Vikings have won 6 in a row in the series and 9 of the last 11 meetings, including all 6 in Dallas. My upset special has the Vikings beating the Cowboys 20-16.
Rainsoaked and Bitterly Cold games
St. Louis (32) at Seattle (16): No team is more Jekyll & Hyde than the Seahawks, who can alternately beat or lose to any team, any week. These teams often play real nail-biters, but it’s real hard to pick against the Seahawks at home with such a vast discrepancy in turnover margins between the teams: the Rams are dead last at -8, while the Seahawks are a solid +3. The Rams are slowly getting healthier, but I’ve never seen a team in more desperate need of a bye week. Two more weeks, Rams' fans, two more weeks. Seattle 30, St. Louis 20.
Chicago (25) at Philadelphia (20): Two teams having poorer than expected seasons face off in what might be the last straw for fans of the losing team. Even though comparing games against common opponents is a poor, lazy way to evaluate how teams will fare against one another, it’s so striking how the games against the Lions went for these teams. The Eagles completely dominated and eviscerated the high-flying Lions, while the Bears looked tentative and overmatched. The Eagles should be better than their 2-3 record, and they also have the advantage of coming off a bye week. The Bears could very well be winless, ranking in the bottom 10 of every offensive and defensive stat category if not for the heroics of the amazing Devin Hester. While I do think the Bears have a real shot at coming together and making a strong stand here, too many things have to go just right for Chicago to win this game. Philadelphia 31, Chicago 17.
NY Jets (30) at Cincinnati (26): This is one of those “something’s gotta give” games: the Jets can’t throw the ball; the Bengals can’t stop the pass. The Bengals can still throw the ball very well, in spite of the increasingly frequent histrionics between Ocho Cinco and Carson Palmer. Their passing offense is the only unit in this matchup that ranks higher than 22nd in anything statistically, which is a good indication that neither of these one-win teams is going to tally many more. If the Bengals can stuff the run, something they have done intermittently well thus far, this one could be real ugly for the Jets' fans, and Jets' fans know themselves some ugly football. Cincy 36, New York 24.
San Francisco (27) at New York Giants (11): The Giants have won 4 in a row based largely on a quickly improving secondary, greatly assisted by the most effective pass rush in the league. QB Eli Manning is finally showing the accuracy and touch that made him the #1 overall pick, and he and WR Plaxico Burress have emerged as one of the most dynamic duos since Tom Brady and Bridget Moynihan (bet you thought I’d say Randy Moss!). I’m done ripping on the 49ers' pathetic offense, which is on a declining pace to finish as one of the 3 worst units in the last 20 years in terms of yards per play, 1st downs per game and passing yards per game. I shall not speak of their ineptitude again until they break out of their morose malaise. It sure won’t be this week. Giants 27, 49ers 3.
Atlanta (29) at New Orleans (24): C’mon, you didn’t really expect the Saints to remain with the dregs of the league for long, did you? A quick recap of their losses: @IND, @TB, TEN, and CAR--no team worse than 4-2 there. They just thumped the Seahawks in Seattle, looking very much like the Saints I thought we were all going to see all season. The biggest difference was the sack differential; they nailed Matt Hasselbeck 5 times, and Drew Brees stayed upright all day. The Falcons have major issues in their pass coverage and major QB issues--two flaws that the Saints are perfectly composed to exploit. This game has the feeling around New Orleans of a golden opportunity to make a big statement. I think the Saints are going to state they are back in the chase with a 36-17 pasting of the Falcons.
Baltimore (13) at Buffalo (28): Ravens' Coach Brian Billick has made me look like an idiot this year. In our “Rate the Coaches” thread I professed my man-crush on Billick’s greatness. So guess what happens…he bungles his way through an ugly loss to the Browns and then leaves a clearly ineffective Steve McNair in charge of the offense when Kyle Boller has looked very good in relief in two uninspiring wins over lousy teams. Billick has finally seen the light, and Boller gets the start this week. The Bills showed against the Cowboys they can take advantage of mistakes, and they’ll be inspired by playing at home after a much-needed bye. But their offense lacks creativity and downfield punch, and the Ravens' D still has enough bite to shut it down. The Ravens can thank the schedule-makers for their good record; they’ve drawn hapless SF, hopeless STL, and now the ravaged, rebuilding Bills in consecutive weeks. That’s three of the 4 worst offenses in the NFL, which makes the Ravens own struggling group just good enough to win. Baltimore 23, Buffalo 20.
Hurricane Andrew Revisited game
New England (1) at Miami (31): Perhaps the greatest team in NFL history goes up against a team that has a realistic chance to finish the season winless. Since this is the NFL and not the 2007 college football season, no upset is possible. I’ll get a faux-hawk if the Dolphins finish within 10 points. Patriots 37, Dolphins 6.
Byes Cleveland (17), Green Bay (6), San Diego (7), Carolina (12)
Drinking in the Dorm Room game Sorry folks, all my collegiate analysis for the week can be found in my Monday column.
Last week I went 2-2, not terrible in another turbulent week chock full of surprising upsets. And this weekend begins no differently, as Rutgers knocked off #2 South Florida Thursday night.
The games Florida 33, Kentucky 29
UCLA 27, Cal 25
Texas Tech 48, Missouri 42
Ohio State 38, Michigan State 12
