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Football Meteorology For Week 8
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 25th October, 2007 - 12:52 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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The weather finally looks like fall here in West MI, with high temps. in the 50s and the sun often invisible for days. It could be cold and rainy in several places this weekend, which typically means lower scores and more conservative game plans. That often helps the underdog, particularly the home underdog, which we’ll see this week in Denver, Cincy, and Charlotte.
Last week’s forecast was a disappointing 9-5, made all the worse by the two late changes I made to my picks: I originally picked Buffalo over Baltimore and KC over Oakland, but the winds of change swept my more accurate forecast to the Microsoft Word neverland. A special apology to my lovely wife, who had to listen to my insufferable moaning about those changes for the better part of Sunday night while I tried not to watch my beloved Indians get demolished in the ALCS. At least I got 3 of the 4 college games right, including two top 10 upsets.
Sunny games
Indianapolis (2) @ Carolina (11): There are a couple of freakish forces at play in this game that indicate the stars might be aligned for a Panthers' upset win here. The Colts have never beaten the Panthers, and Panthers' QB Vinny Testaverde has never lost a game he’s played against a Tony Dungy-coached team. They’ll need all the powers of the cosmic force to beat an Indianapolis team clicking on all cylinders in their V-12 engine. For you conspiracy theorists: keep in mind that the Colts play New England next week, and the marketing gurus at the NFL would sell their children for that game to feature two undefeated teams. If they’ll sell their children, they’ll certainly lean on the referees to help out the Colts however they can. While I’m not a big conspiracy theory guy, the reason so many people believe in those things is because their shaky beliefs always seem to get reinforced in games like this one. I also can’t see the Panthers iffy OL keeping Dwight Freeney out of the backfield and into Vinny’s (or David Carr’s, the banged-up starter) hip and throwing arm. Indianapolis stays perfect with a 27-17 road win.
Washington (8) @ New England (1): The Ethnic Slurs are constructed in a manner that could give the perfect Patriots some problems. Washington features a very good secondary with 3 legit cover CBs and two very good, rangy safeties. They have been getting a consistent pass rush from the front 4, and London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh & Co. have done a fine job in tackling and keeping plays in front of them. Washington can pound the rock inside and out with the RB duo of Ladell Betts/Clinton Portis, and QB Jason Campbell has the strength and mobility to survive the blitzing and dogging of the Pats' defense. They match up better against New England than any team the Pats have seen thus far; if Joe Gibbs’ charges can control the penalties and turnovers, they’ve got a real shot. A shot to keep the game within 2 touchdowns, that is. New England keeps rolling towards their unblemished season with a competitive 33-24 win.
Jacksonville (9) @ Tampa Bay (13): Gut check time for the two Florida teams that still have playoff pulses. The Jaguars come off a Monday night bombardment at the hands of the Colts and must play the Bucs with unimpressive backup QB Quinn Gray and likely without dynamic RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Tampa Bay returns home licking their wounds (mostly self-inflicted) after losing at Detroit despite essentially dominating most facets of the game. The Lions had loads of success pounding between the tackles, something the Jaguars excel at even without Jones-Drew. They’ll need RB Fred Taylor to stay on the field and at his very best to take the pressure off Gray, who showed little pocket awareness and poor accuracy against the Colts. Tampa Bay plays a very opportunistic style of defense, and I don’t expect Bucs' QB Jeff Garcia to make the costly mistakes this week that doomed his team last week. The Jags' lack of a reliable FG kicker really hurts in what should be a low-scoring, close game. Tampa Bay 20, Jacksonville 17.
Green Bay (4) @ Denver (19): The Broncos upset the Steelers at Mile High last week, and they’re hoping to get their best player, CB Champ Bailey, back this week to knock off the Packers. Bailey’s secondary mate, Dre Bly, left the Steelers' game with a shoulder injury, so at best the Broncos face off against Brett Favre, Donald Driver, and the rest of the Packers' offense that relies heavily on the pass with their top two cover men not anywhere near 100%. The alternate is that neither plays, and that’s even scarier for the home fans. Green Bay’s defense keeps playing consistently well, and their LBs are playing better than anyone. Don’t discount the momentum of having the Rockies in the World Series in boosting Denver’s morale and intensity, but this strikes me as one of those games where it’s gonna come down to a 2-minute drill final possession to win, and few have ever executed better in those situations than Favre. Packers 27, Broncos 25.
Seasonably pleasant games
Oakland (24) @ Tennessee (7): I feel sort of bad for Raiders fans. Coming into this season almost everyone expected their defense to remain elite and the offense to slowly catch up. But a funny thing has happened: the Raiders forgot how to stop the run. Their offense is slowly catching up, but don’t be fooled by their gaudy rushing stats; Oakland is middle of the pack in yards per carry, and yards per 1st down attempt, and their weak passing attack doesn’t ease any pressure. The Raiders also have the dubious distinction of the worst average starting field position in the league by nearly 4 yards. Playing on a long field against this Titans' defense is not conducive for success. The Titans found a way to win last week despite not having Vince Young and suffering a defensive collapse of near-record proportion. I don’t expect a similar problem for their defense, and Young’s probable return will provide a needed emotional rudder. Titans 33, Raiders 16.
Houston (22) @ San Diego (12): The Texans showed me last week they have the spunk and resourcefulness that will allow them to step up and start winning close games sooner than later. The problem is they draw a Chargers' team coming off a bye and looking very much like the team that steamrolled to a 14-2 record last ear and not the team that stumbled out of the gate. It’s hard to gauge how the Chargers handle the uncertainty surrounding the devastating fires around their homes and forcing this game’s status up in the air. The Santa Ana winds are expected to stop, and the home front should be more resolved whenever and wherever this game winds up being played. The Texans' only win in the last 5 games was a squeaker over the completely inept Dolphins, and a lot of people overlook that San Diego’s 3 losses are all to division leaders. So long as the emotional effects of the California fires don’t burn them, the Chargers win comfortably. San Diego 36, Houston 24.
Detroit (10) @ Chicago (20): Detroit handled the Bears last month in a game that was one of the most pathetic displays of offense for 3 quarters, then the most prolific 4th quarter of all time. The Bears are slowly getting healthier on defense, but the return of RB Kevin Jones has provided the Lions with a much-needed dual-threat weapon in the backfield. The Lions are an elite team at home (really!) but have been simply awful on the road this year, and Chicago is no happy destination. In the last two seasons in Chicago, the Bears have mauled the Lions to the tune of 38-6 and 34-7, with a turnover margin of +7, and trust me, neither game was nearly as close as the final scores indicate. Some teams just don’t play well in certain places, and Detroit in Chicago is one of those. Big days from Shaun Rogers and Kevin Jones could curb that trend, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Chicago 30, Detroit 12.
Overcast & Windy games
Pittsburgh (6) @ Cincinnati (25): Things are getting real ugly in Cincinnati, even though the Bengals managed to nip the pathetic Jets last week. Their defense and special teams often look like they’re not really trying, and the tension surrounding Chad Johnson and his trade rumors are not helping. They barely beat the Jets by getting a huge game from backup RB Kenny Watson. That will not happen against a very solid Steelers' D. Pittsburgh is in a pattern of alternating dominating performances with relative clunkers, and the pattern dictates a painful neutering of the floundering Bengals. Marvin Lewis’ hot seat glows brighter after the Steelers beat the Bengals 39-20.
New Orleans (21) @ San Francisco (28): Two teams heading in opposite directions as the season progresses meet by the Bay. A funny thing happened to the Saints when Deuce McAllister went down with his knee injury--their OL started playing better, and Reggie Bush started running harder. A more aggressive defense has helped too, allowing the offense to play without the burden of having to be near-perfect to win. Expect Will Smith and Charles Grant to have big games against a SF OL that looks worse every week. Not a good week for Niners' QB Alex Smith to return from injury. Saints 27, 49ers 13.
Cleveland (17) @ St. Louis (31): Cleveland comes off a bye with fresh legs and what Coach Crennel promises will be a more reliable, physical defense. This might be a good chance to test it because the Rams just cut their starting left guard for beating up his wife, meaning they are now down 5 linemen. RB Steven Jackson hopes to return, but the quickness of the Browns' LBs should be able to keep him from breaking too many big runs. Then there’s the matter of the Rams' awful pass defense slowing down Derek Anderson, K2, and Braylon Edwards, which is developing into a very potent attack behind an OL that is quickly solidifying into one of the NFL’s best. The C-LG-LT package of Hank Fraley, Eric Steinbach, and Joe Thomas is playing as well as any in the league. The Rams' limited talent on D hasn’t shown the necessary spirit or discipline to handle a good offense for long stretches. This is a dangerous game for the Browns--a roadie they are expected to win before a tough stretch of games. I don’t think they fall into the trap. Cleveland 31, St. Louis 21.
Prepare for Disaster games
Philadelphia (23) @ Minnesota (27): As the games mount and the season progresses, we can better distinguish consistent strength from flukish performances. These two teams are a great example: Minnesota is no fluke with Adrian Peterson running the ball, and nobody stops the run better than the Vikings' defense. The Eagles are a different story. Take away their 56-point outburst against the hapless Lions' road D, and they rank in the bottom 6 in every offensive category. I’ll take consistent play over freakish anomalies every time, certainly at home and with a more reliable QB (Kelly Holcomb) taking over for Minnesota. Another big game resulting in victory and Peterson enters the MVP race as a rookie. Vikings 23, Eagles 17.
NY Giants (5) @ Miami (32): Dolphins' fans are going to be glad this game will be played in London and not Miami, because it’s certainly not worth their hard-earned $$ to attend this mismatch. The Giants bring defensive pressure better than anyone, and they can do it without blitzing so their LBs can assist their weak-but-improving secondary. Miami is now without their only legit offensive threats, RB Ronnie Brown (injured) and WR Chris Chambers (traded), with a backup QB and a rookie head coach with a complex system. Don’t be fooled by the relative closeness of Miami’s last two games; they were losing by a combined 69-17 at halftime against Cleveland and New England. The Giants have a better defense than either of those opponents, and Eli Manning is playing great behind an underrated OL that has allowed just 3 sacks in the last 4 games. The feasting continues against a truly horrid Dolphins' secondary. God might indeed save the queen, but the Queen can’t save Miami in this one. New York Giants 36, Miami 6.
Buffalo (26) @ NY Jets (30): This game has a significantly greater impact on the 2008 NFL Draft than it does anything else. It’s also the first rematch of the season, as the Bills won 17-14 in Week 4. Buffalo has found a keeper in QB Trent Edwards, who responded well to having the playbook opened up for him in the win over Baltimore. Their defense will hereafter always be referred to as “injury-ravaged”, but Buffalo is finding some diamonds in the rough on that side of the ball too. The Bills have quietly strung together two pretty good games against two pretty good teams. The Jets' defense can’t rush the passer, can’t cover WRs, can’t stop the run with any regularity, doesn’t force turnovers and can’t make red zone holds. You might have heard by now that their QB can’t throw the ball with any zip, too. I still give the Jets a chance simply because they do have more talent, plus the first meeting was very close. But they’re certainly not showing their talent on the field, and they’re this close to looking and sounding like a team that has quit on its coach. Buffalo 24, New York Jets 19.
Byes, or “Enjoy the World Series” games Dallas (3), Seattle (16), Kansas City (15), Arizona (18), Atlanta (29), Baltimore (14)
Drinking in the Dorm Room game
Ohio State at Penn State. Happy Valley is never a happy place for the Scarlet and Grey, and this PSU team play a lot better at home than they do on the road. But the Buckeyes excel at all three phases of the game, and it’s tough to pull an upset without some self-destruction by the better team. OSU nearly gave away the game last week with one of the worst minutes of football I’ve ever seen, and I think they’ll apply that lesson here. It’s tough to bet against the underdog this season, but Ohio State’s proclivity for dominating the 1st quarter is a great antidote against the upset virus. Buckeyes stay undefeated and atop the BCS with a 23-20 squeaker over the game Nittany Lions.
Other games:
Oregon 32, USC 30
Georgia 26, Florida 20
West Virginia 43, Rutgers 31
