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Football Meteorology For Week 9
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 31st October, 2007 - 8:37 pm
It's been seven long months, but football is finally back in our lives full-time. The 'KQ' has returned to help guide you through Week One of the 2008 NFL Season.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
Among Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, LaRon Landry and Thomas Howard, there are no shortage of young players that are poised to explode this season.
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The halfway point of the season is finally here. Before we get to this week’s forecast, it’s time for a quick rundown of midseason awards…
MVP: Tom Brady
Defensive MVP: Osi Umenyiora
Offensive Rookie: Adrian Peterson
Defensive Rookie: Amobi Okoye
Best Coaching Job: Detroit’s Rod Marinelli, not for Xs and Os but for results
Best Offseason Move: Randy Moss to the Patriots
MVP of a non-perfect team: Eli Manning
Most Improved Player: Derek Anderson, who finishes 2nd to Eli Manning above
Worst Offseason Move: The 49ers trading for Darrell Jackson and grossly overpaying for Tully Banta-Cain and Michael Lewis. Told you so!
Worst Coaching Job: The Jets’ Eric Mangini, for continually trying to hammer square pegs into triangles.
Biggest Pleasant Surprise: The Browns consistently prolific offense
Biggest Unpleasant Surprise: The collapse of the Bears defense
Best Coaching Job, Part II: Dick Jauron in Buffalo, for keeping the injury-ravaged Bills competitive. They are two last-second FGs away from being 5-3 despite having missed more man-games to injury than the entire AFC South. In those two last-second losses they never trailed until the final opposing plays.
Most Freakish Stat: The Panthers have not lost on the road but have not won at home.
Back to our regularly scheduled forecast…
The leaves on the trees here are pretty much gone, just like the playoff hopes of any team not at .500 after 8 games played. My forecasts have put me solidly in the playoffs, going 78-38 over the first half of the NFL season, good for 68%. Much like the Saints and Chargers, I started poorly (15-17 in Weeks 1&2) but have surged lately.
The Sunniest Regular Season Game Ever
New England Patriots (1)@ Indianapolis Colts (2): You can find all the endless hype and hyperbole surrounding this game everywhere. I’ll keep it short and simple. The 2 most favorable matchups in this game both favor the Colts: Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith running the ball right at the Pats defense, and TE Dallas Clark against S Rodney Harrison. Actually, Harrison is the swing guy here; he can really help shore up the oft-leaky run D, but that leaves even more room for the field-stretching Clark. If they try to give Harrison help on Clark, the run game opens even more. It worked for Cleveland, and the Colts have much better overall personnel than the Browns. I also like the Adam Vinatieri advantage and the Colts facing the worst red zone defense in the league. Indianapolis 33, New England 31.
Seasonably pleasant games
Carolina Panthers (14) @ Tennessee Titans (9): Neither team achieves anywhere near as well as they should offensively and don’t expect that to change in this game. The Titans' D is legit, and Panthers' QB David Carr often appears to be checking down from Steve Smith while leaving the huddle. It’s about time for fragile RB Deshaun Foster to suffer a bad injury, and the failure of backup Deangelo Williams to develop as expected leaves the Panthers' offense in trouble. Still, they do have the best weapon in this game in Smith, and TE Jeff King has been getting open well. Titans' QB Vince Young cannot expect to complete 6 passes for 42 yards and win, and Carolina has the defensive speed to contain him and RB LenDale White. As I mentioned above, the Panthers are a much better team on the road, and I believe it will hold up for one more week. Carolina 20, Tennessee 18.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8) @ New Orleans Saints (12): The Saints continue their march back to respectability against a tough Jaguars' team coming off an emotional win. Losing DT Marcus Stroud from the middle will be a huge blow for the Jags who will try to replace him with Falcons castoff Grady Jackson. The key matchup here is how well the Jaguar OL can handle the suddenly blitz-happy Saints D. Coach Sean Payton realized the best way to cover his secondary’s inability to cover anyone is to not give the QB time or comfort in finding those open WRs. It’s bold moves like that which show that Payton will be a head coach for a long time, while young coaches who refuse to budge or scrap what isn’t working will go back to being coordinators. Likewise, Jags' coach Jack del Rio tailored his gameplan last week to better suit the skills (or lack thereof) of lifelong 3rd string QB Quinn Gray. Special shout out to rookie Jags P Adam Podlesh, who deserved a game ball for his clutch 81-yard, momentum-changing punt late last week. Frequent readers know one of my axioms is that in coin-flip games like this one, bet on the team with the better QB. That would be the Saints, and they are the pick. New Orleans 26, Jacksonville 24.
Baltimore Ravens (11) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5): The Monday nighter features one of my favorite matchups to watch year in and year out. The Ravens swept the rival Steelers by a combined 58-7 last year, and you can bet Pittsburgh has payback in mind. The one weak link on these two teams is the Ravens' offense, and the Steelers' D at home is not a place for them to suddenly get healthy. All the focus has been on Jonathan Ogden being out, but it looks to me like they miss offseason departures G Ed Mulitalo and RT Tony Pashos more than they miss their Hall of Fame LT. Pittsburgh has some freakishly outrageous home MNF record that I’m too lazy to look up; watch the 9-hour ESPN pregame banter and you’ll see it at least 37 times, then add one more to the win column. Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 10.
Overcast skies games
Arizona Cardinals (21)@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19): The Buccaneers are finally paying for losing their top 2 RBs and only having one WR who can reliably get open. The Jaguars and Lions have shown that getting good pressure on Jeff Garcia will derail their offense, and the Cards bring the heat quite well. Teams have also found you can run downhill right at the Bucs defense and have success, which is the only way Edgerrin James knows how to run. Both teams are floundering a little after solid starts, but the Cards get the advantage of coming off a bye. I like the freshness aspect paired with the aforementioned advantageous matchups. Arizona 17, Tampa Bay 12.
Green Bay Packers (4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (18): Chiefs DE Jared Allen is the best player you’ve probably never seen. KC LB Derrick Johnson is probably in the top 5 of that group too. The Chiefs play a deliberate (read: boring), low-risk style that emphasizes controlling the line of scrimmage and shortening the game. It’s not pretty, but when their OL plays well it’s quite effective, and their line looks better every week. I do think Green Bay is a legit 6-1 team, but they’ve been skating on some pretty thin ice in several wins. It’s still pretty warm in Green Bay, but it’s even warmer in Kansas City, and that thin ice melts on the Pack this week. Chiefs 21, Packers 17.
Denver Broncos (17) @ Detroit Lions (10): Halfway to Jon Kitna’s bold prediction of 10 wins, everyone keeps waiting for the shocking Lions to crash back to reality. The statheads and critics like to point to the wildly inconsistent D, the record pace of sacks Kitna keeps running himself into, the often baffling playcalling of Mike Martz, the weak schedule they’ve played. Those arguments do have merit, but historically speaking, teams that force loads of turnovers (the Lions lead the league) and win divisional games early (the Lions are 3-0 in divisional play) don’t fade easily. Kevin Jones has returned with a purposeful stride, and Denver couldn’t stop the awful Green Bay rushing attack at home last week. As long as Martz doesn’t forget about Jones (not a sure thing) and Kitna learns to count to 5 and then throw the ball away (he hasn’t yet), the Lions should be fine. DT Shaun Rogers at home is the most dominant defensive player in football, and he’ll be fired up to burn disliked former teammate Dre Bly, now gambling at CB for the Broncos. Note to Lions doubters: they don’t play on grass until Dec 16th, and they’ve consistently beaten supposedly “better” teams on turf all year. They’ll do it again here. Detroit 31, Denver 20.
Seattle Seahawks (16) @ Cleveland Browns (15): I simulated many forecast models in my head for this game, but it came down to one overriding factor. The winner of this game will be 5-3, and as much as the Browns' offense has impressed me, I just can’t see them being 5-3. I expected Seattle to be 5-3, and I think they’ll have fun getting there in a high-scoring road win. Seattle 37, Cleveland 31.
Dallas Cowboys (3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (20): Tony Romo got his contract extension, and he gets a chance to prove to Jerry Jones he’s not a thief by facing an Eagles' defense that has not had much success slowing down the Cowboys the past few years. This year’s Eagles D isn’t as tough or deep, and the dual-threat rushing attack Dallas brings should keep them off-balance enough for Romo to find TO, who would love nothing more than to enrage the Philly faithful with an outlandish TD celebration or two. Coming off a wound-licking bye, the Cowboys should be fresh and ready to bury the Eagles. Because one team has scored exactly 16 points in 5 of the Eagles 7 games, the score gets easier to forecast. Dallas wins 30-16.
San Diego Chargers (7) @ Minnesota Vikings (25): When I saw Brooks Bollinger run onto the field to QB the Vikings last week I nearly laughed beer out of my nose. If there’s even a chance he sees the field, the Vikings have no chance. They have little chance in this one even if he’s back to holding the clipboard. Adrian Peterson, meet the rookie wall and Jamal Williams. Chargers 33, Vikings 6.
Windy, rainy games
Washington Ethnic Slurs (13) @ New York Jets (30): Jets' fans get their wish, and the Kellen Clemens era begins. Once again Coach Mangini proves he’s in way over his head by making the switch now, as the Skins boast one of the best secondaries and pass rushes in the league, even minus injured CB Carlos Rogers. Sure the Patriots exploited and manhandled them last week, but there’s not one Jets' offensive starter that would start for New England except C Nick Mangold. On the other side, the Jets have no ability to rush the passer and no visible cohesion; they often look like 11 strangers all doing their own thing instead of moving in concert and having a discernible plan of attack. Washington is certainly no juggernaut, but they have enough talent to ground the Jets. Washington 36, New York 10.
San Francisco 49ers (28) @ Atlanta Falcons (29): Someone has to win, right? It’s in Atlanta, and the Falcons have shown the ability to score with their defense. Falcons 16, 49ers 13.
Cincinnati Bengals (27) @ Buffalo Bills (23): Classic matchup here of a team with some talent playing poorly (Cincy) against a talent-starved team playing well (Buffalo). The disintegration of the Bengals line has clearly affected Carson Palmer, and if he’s not almost perfect, their offense doesn’t work. Leave out their 45 spot against Cleveland (a game they lost!) and the Bengals' offensive ranking dips 8 spots. The Bills don’t beat themselves, though JP Losman is looser with the ball than Trent Edwards at QB, and Losman will start. The Bengals depend heavily on forcing turnovers to bail out their awful secondary and MIA LB corps, but the Bills are 3rd in the league in turnover margin. Yet something about this game keeps telling me the Bengals are going to put it together this week. I’ll take the anomaly projection here and go with Cincinnati beating Buffalo 24-20.
Houston Texans (26) @ Oakland Raiders (24): Two teams who teased their suffering fans with good starts face off trying to avoid going losing game #6. Houston’s defense looks worse every week, and Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye both look exhausted and exasperated for having to do pretty much everything themselves despite being double teamed almost every snap. The Texans' QBs can’t keep taking the beatings either, but it won’t stop until they get a legit threat at RB. The return of WR Andre Johnson will help, but the Raiders' secondary is the strength of their team. Oakland lost a close one to a pretty good Titans' team, and if they take care of the ball they should find success here. Flukish stat alert: the Raiders are the only team to have not recovered a fumble all year, while the Texans lead the league in both fumbles and lost fumbles. One of those trends ends here, and I’ll bet on the Raiders' defense. Oakland 27, Houston 13.
Byes New York Giants (6), Chicago Bears (22), Miami Dolphins (32), St. Louis Rams (31)
Drinking in the Dorm Room game 4-0 last week on the college front, leaving me 21-12 on the season. And I’m proud to say my 2-year old son has mastered yelling, “Go Buckeyes!"
Arizona State at Oregon: Both teams passed stern tests last week, and the winner of this game is almost certain to win the Pac-10. I love the Sun Devils' balanced offense, even minus injured RB Ryan Torain, though QB Rudy Carpenter’s injured thumb could be problematic. It’s games like this where Heisman Trophies are won, and Ducks' QB Dennis Dixon has the weapons and the goods to put himself atop the heap with a commanding performance. The speedy ASU defense will be a major challenge, but RB Jonathan Stewart has the power to open things up for the Oregon spread passing game. Oregon 26, Arizona State 20.
Other games LSU 29, Alabama 16, as Nick Saban bites the pillow of regret
South Florida 44, Cincinnati 38
Michigan 30, Michigan State 27. Apologies to my volleyball buds Jason and Pete, but Sparty blew it last week and the rival Wolverines are focused.
If you haven’t already, have a look at the football message boards forum here at RealGM. There are some very intelligent football fans here, and we’re always looking for more.
Send questions, comments, and pharmaceutical spam to Jeff at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
