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Football Meteorology For Week 10
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th November, 2007 - 2:04 am
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Last week’s forecast was a dreary 6-8, my worst mark in the last two seasons. It was truly one of the more freakish weeks in a long time. 5 different teams scored special teams touchdowns, and all 5 lost.
The NFL single-game rushing record was broken by a rookie playing behind one of the worst QB's you can imagine. Another rookie RB threw a TD pass. Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Atlanta all won on the same weekend for the first time since 1991.
The AFC and NFC West divisions failed to win a game, the first time since the league split into 8 divisions that 2 entire divisions were complete losers.
Lions' NT Shaun Rogers, arguably the heaviest man in the league, returned an INT nearly 60 total yards, and only one Bronco got within 25 yards of him during the last 20 yards of his return.
The Colts fall to 7-1, their worst start in 3 years.
The Saints won their 4th in a row after losing their first 4 games, and they could realistically run the table--they’re likely favorites in all their remaining games.
Chris Berman didn’t sweat through his jacket on the ESPN set, and Emmitt Smith and Terry Bradshaw both made salient, coherent points. It truly was an amazing weekend.
Thanks to falling back for Daylight Savings Time and the extra hour of sleep, this week’s forecast promises a much greater accuracy. While there are no all-time classic games on the docket, this week’s games will go a long way towards sorting out the Wild Card races in both conferences. It’s also the last of the bye weeks, to the immense joy of fantasy footballers worldwide.
Beach Volleyball Weather Game of the Week
Dallas (4) at NY Giants (5): The Giants are a vastly different team than the one the Cowboys lit up in Week 1, namely a much-improved secondary and a more cohesive offensive line. I really like how Brandon Jacobs has run since returning from his injury, and the Cowboys are vulnerable to power runs up the A and B gaps. Normally they can sneak S Roy Williams into the box to help out, but Giants' TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer are good enough playmakers to keep him and the rest of the secondary honest. Dallas seems to have snapped out of a funk in pounding the Eagles last week, and they’ll need to be at their sharpest to handle the G-Men. The Giants' DL is going to put a lot of pressure on the Cowboys solid but vulnerable pass blocking, and their safeties have figured out how to play together with the corners, which helps contain plays outside the pocket where Tony Romo thrives. New York 30, Dallas 27.
Mostly Sunny Games
Cleveland (10) at Pittsburgh (3): Serious revenge game for the Browns, who have rebounded spectacularly from the Week 1 humiliation by their division rivals. The biggest difference for the Browns is the vastly improved play of their OL, particularly rookie LT Joe Thomas, who has been among the top 5 tackles in the league over the last month. Dick Lebeau’s zone blitzing scheme will be a major challenge, and getting DE Aaron Smith back makes it an even bigger one. While watching the PIT-BAL game, it occurred to me where I’d seen the defensive principles of the Steelers before: on the volleyball court. Pittsburgh blocks off sections of the open field by bringing heat that the offense cannot get the ball through but must go around. The defenders on the periphery are quick to react in any direction and take away the obvious outlet lanes. In volleyball, you beat that by varying the point of attack and blowing through it with bigger hitters. Browns' RB Jamal Lewis has played reasonably well, but he’s no Phil Dalhausser or Fred Souza (non-AVP fans, youtube them hitting!). Steelers 30, Browns 20.
Jacksonville (11) at Tennessee (7): Pivotal game for the depleted Jaguars, who are now missing stud DT Marcus Stroud to an illegal substance suspension. The Titanic tandem of DE Kyle Vandenbosch and DT Al Haynesworth is dominating every week, and Jacksonville also lost its top interior OL, Chris Naeole. Even if banged-up starting QB David Garrard returns, the Jacksonville offense faces a major challenge against the best defense in the league. Funny how a great pass rush covers an iffy secondary. The Titans have serious offensive issues, namely the fact that Vince Young is flat-out awful throwing the ball. That means the matchup comes down to running the football and stopping the run. Edge: Titans, thanks to their run defense led by their hard-hitting, speedy LB's. Titans 16, Jaguars 13.
Indianapolis (2) at San Diego (12): After watching a completely one-dimensional Vikings offense absolutely manhandle the Chargers defense last week, I can only imagine how excited Peyton Manning & Co. must be. The Colts' D has enough speed to contain Ladanian Tomlinson, and Chargers' QB Philip Rivers is not showing the ability to consistently make strong throws. I expect San Diego to rebound at home, but this is not a good matchup on either side of the ball for the Bolts. Indianapolis 33, San Diego 24.
Overcast Games
Minnesota (15) at Green Bay (6): Last week I predicted Adrian Peterson would find the rookie wall. Bad call! I’m a combined 6-10 in picking games involving these teams, making them two of my four least effective forecasts (NYG and CHI are the others). In short, whatever I think I know about these teams, I don’t really know. I know Favre often struggles against the Vikings, and I know the weather in Green Bay will finally resemble the vaunted “Frozen Tundra”. I need to see Peterson run on cold, loose turf against a very good run defense before I know how to forecast his performance. Note I seldom mention anyone else on the Vikings' offense, and that’s because other than the left side of their OL, the rest of the offense is basically terrible. I think last week was the Vikings’ fluke outburst, not a sign of things to come. We’ll see how much I know…Packers 27, Vikings 16.
Detroit (8) at Arizona (19): The Lions aggressive DL and opportunistic secondary are a nightmare matchup for the Cardinals, who are prone to bad OL gaffes and ill-timed INTs. Fun fact that lends more credence to the Lions' playoff march: the team with the most combined sacks and INTs has missed the playoffs just once in the last 23 years (the 2001 Cleveland Browns are the exception). The Lions lead the league with 38 combined INTs/sacks. Nice to see Shaun Rogers finally get the attention he deserves because when he’s playing well, he’s the most disruptive defensive player in the NFL, and he’s been playing well much more consistently this season. The Lions' defensive back 7 doesn’t have loads of talent, but they do have speed and discipline. The Cards, who do have pretty good talent in the back end, lack that consistent discipline, and that’s a real problem when the Lions bring 4 legit weapons at WR to town. Lions 27, Cardinals 20.
Philadelphia (24) at Washington (13): This game shapes up as a likely death gasp for the Eagles, who are perilously close to falling into “full rebuild” mode. The Ethnic Slurs are not a good opponent to be desperate against because their secondary limits big plays well, and the defensive front brings consistent pressure. That’s not something Donovan McNabb has handled well in his still-hobbled state. This truly is one of those “throw out the records” rivalry games, but at the same time it’s awful hard to ignore just how poorly the Eagles are playing, and the talent simply isn’t there to just flip a switch and turn it around. Washington 19, Philadelphia 17.
Denver (23) at Kansas City (14): Tough break for Larry Johnson, getting injured just before getting a crack at running around, over, and through one of the worst run defenses in the past 5 years. The Broncos give up a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry on 1st down, and that number goes up every week. This has all the trappings of a Hallmark moment for KC RB Priest Holmes in his triumphant comeback from his neck injury. The pass rush is clearly a problem for the Broncos, and the Chiefs have a pair of DEs who can wreak havoc in Jared Allen and Tamba Hali. Kansas City 24, Denver 12.
Cold November Rain Games
Buffalo (18) at Miami (32): Will the Dolphins win a game this year? Probably. Just not this one because the Bills are not going to beat themselves, and the Dolphins have no ability to stop WR Lee Evans or RB Marshawn Lynch. They might stop one but not both. On the flip side, the Dolphins are starting guys at RB, WR, and TE who almost certainly would not make about 20 other teams’ practice squads. The bad karma generated by former Dolphins' coach Don Shula, still gravy-training the 1972 perfect team with an unhealthy bitterness, rules out any thoughts I had of an upset here. Buffalo noses above .500 with a 30-10 win over the hopeless Dolphins.
St. Louis (31) at New Orleans (9): Just what the Rams truly awful pass defenses needs: a New Orleans offense that is playing with confidence and precision. There is a little voice in my head that keeps whispering “upset alert”, but I’m inclined to drown out that gremlin with a cold beer and the latest Dream Theater CD cranked to 11. New Orleans 36, St. Louis 17.
Atlanta (27) at Carolina (21): Has there ever been a less appealing game to watch than this one? Sure, there are teams much worse than both of these teams, but two completely hopeless QB situations and consistently lousy OL play make for a long, boring afternoon. In a game where a 40-yard punt return might be the deciding factor, I’ll take the Falcons because the Panthers' special teams are flat-out awful. Falcons 13, Panthers 9.
Cincinnati (26) at Baltimore (20): Being a native Clevelander, this game is one where I pray for a scoreless tie with lots of penalties, fights, and suspensions. Speaking of suspensions and the Bengals, playmaking WR Chris Henry returns from his pot-induced break. He’ll certainly help exploit an injury-ravaged Ravens secondary, provided he can make it to Sunday without getting arrested, which is not a given. The Ravens do expect CB Chris McAllister back and perhaps Samari Rolle as well, and though I love Carson Palmer, he’s not going to make plays outside the pocket the way Big Ben did. It’s hard to pick against the Ravens at home when the opponent has no running game and no run defense. Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 20.
Chicago (22) at Oakland (28): The two most disappointing defenses square off in a game between two teams that look an awful like one another--bad QBs, dreadful WR play, poor run defense marked by awful gap discipline from the LB's, and sporadic DL play that often nullifies two of the best secondaries in the league. The Raiders can run the ball, and the duo of Lamont Jordan and Justin Fargas looks a lot like the Benson/Jones show in Chicago last year. The Bears kept the wrong guy from that duo, and this is a serious make-or-break game for Cedric Benson. If he can’t crack 100 yards on 20 carries against the often-soulless, completely inept Raiders' run D, he’s as good as done. I wouldn’t bet on anyone playing behind the Bears' OL, though I still believe Chicago has one of those “take them behind the woodshed” games in them very soon. It might as well be this week against one of the few teams with worse QB/WR play than their own, and the lack of a consistent pass rush from Oakland means Brian Griese won’t have to throw off his back foot all the time. Chicago 31, Oakland 13.
San Francisco (29) at Seattle (17): This is probably the last game the 49ers have any chance to win without getting a lot of help from the other team. The Niners have had the Seahawks' number lately, despite the 23-3 demolition by Seattle in the earlier meeting this season. Seattle has fared quite well against weak offensive lines but has been pounded by strong OL's, and to call the Niners line “weak” is giving them far too much credit. San Francisco has a shot if they can find anyone who can rush the passer but that’s another major weakness for them. Seattle 29, San Francisco 10.
Byes New England (1), NY Jets (30), Tampa Bay (16), Houston (25)
Drinking in the Dorm Room games
Last week saw yet another 3-1 performance. This week gets 6 games for the price of 4!
California 30, USC 24: Does any team get less from more than the Trojans?
Ohio State 33, Illinois 20: The Illini just don’t have enough defense to pull off the upset.
Oklahoma State 20, Kansas 16.:The underachieving Cowboys have one rise-up game every season, and it’s time against a Kansas team that hasn’t been tested.
Michigan 17, Wisconsin 10: No PJ Hill means no Badger victory.
Florida State 23, Virginia Tech 20:The Noles have quietly been playing much better lately, and the Hokies' offense is too inconsistent.
Florida 26, South Carolina 24: And the jumbling in the SEC East gets even crazier.
