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Football Meteorology For Week 11
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 16th November, 2007 - 1:44 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Another rough forecast last week (7-7) brought me back down to the earth, leaving me 90-58 on the season. But the message board faithful here on RealGM will tell you I correctly nailed two late alterations with an uncanny prescience, and that momentum is bound to carry over into this week’s picks. After a weekend in which my Buckeyes, Lions, Browns, and Ohio U. Bobcats all lost, I need all the momentum I can get.
This is always a thrilling weekend for me: Ohio State/Michigan. As a loyal Buckeye fan living in enemy territory for the past 5 years, I’ve come to truly relish how the proverbial worm has turned in this series. With both teams coming off a loss for the first time since 1959, a lot of the luster and emotion is stripped. But not enough to stop the tasteless jokes and insults, like this one:
Why do Michigan grads only need two pall bearers at their funeral?
Because a trash can has only two handles
I’ll proudly don my Chris Spielman #36 jersey and head to Buffalo Wild Wings on 44th street in Grand Rapids, hoisting a few in celebration of yet another Buckeye victory with the 20 or so other Buckeye faithful brave enough to show their true colors in a state that is in the top 3 in the nation in both mental illness and gun ownership.
Warm and Sunny Game of the Week
San Diego (8) @ Jacksonville (7): No defensive player in the league is hotter than Chargers' CB Antonio Cromartie, who has 6 INT's and 3 TD's in the last 4 weeks. That is bad news for the Jaguars and QB David Garrard, who expects to return after an injury absence, because Jacksonville lacks the dynamic WR's to keep him from gambling for more. On the flip side, the Chargers have major trouble stopping runs outside the A and B gaps, and that’s where Fred Taylor has notched a great deal of his 10,000+ career yards. When he tires, they can bring in Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the most explosive “little” RB's you’re ever going to see. San Diego QB Philip Rivers is really struggling, and if he cannot show the Jags' D early on that he can successfully stretch the field, RB Ladanian Tomlinson is in for a long afternoon rushing the ball. Good thing he’s the best backfield receiver in the game because the Jaguars struggle to stop passes to RB's. They also struggle against TE's, and no team has a better one (sorry, K2) than Antonio Gates. The Bolts also have a huge advantage at kicker, and that might very well be the deciding factor in what could be a defensive struggle. San Diego keeps the positive vibe grooving with a 23-20 victory over the Jaguars.
Sunny Games
New England (1) @ Buffalo (15): The Bills are the kind of team that can pull this upset, a well-coached unit of overachievers with good chemistry and a solid OL. The home crowd energized the Bills to within 1 second of upsetting the Cowboys, and they could easily be 7-2 instead of 5-4. That’s all well and good, but the Patriots are too focused to look past them or ignore the Bills' massively depleted secondary, now minus CB Kiwaukee Thomas. Missing explosive rookie RB Marshawn Lynch won’t help Buffalo either. New England gets a workman-like 34-17 victory in Buffalo.
Tennessee (9) @ Denver (20): On paper the Titans should really enjoy this game. The Broncos have a terrible run defense; they don’t take care of the ball well; and they’re missing their two best weapons on offense. All of those play to the Titans’ strengths. But it’s Monday night in Denver, and that tends to bring out the best in the Broncos and the worst in their opponents. Vince Young has to show he can complete a pass down the field because even the porous Denver run defense can stifle a one-dimensional attack--they did it just last week in Kansas City. A return by dominating DT Albert Haynesworth would really help keep the Titans close, but even at 95% that won’t be enough. Denver 27, Tennessee 13.
New York Giants (6) @ Detroit (11): Detroit Coach Rod Marinelli “one game at a time” in the manner that Bears' Coach Lovie Smith kept repeating the mantra “Rex Grossman is our quarterback” last season. It worked (sort of) for the Bears last year, and this Lions team seems to wear it well too. After their last two losses, games in which they looked as bad as any time in the regrettable Millen era, they bounced back with strong wins against quality opponents. The Giants certainly have the ability to win this one, but the increasingly balky ankle of Plaxico Burress and the lack of quality depth in the New York secondary give the matchup edge to the Lions. In a game with huge wild card implications for the NFC, the Lions step up at home, a place where their defense goes from lethargic lioness to king of the pride. Picture Shaun Rogers wearing a mane. Detroit 27, New York Giants 14.
Washington (18) @ Dallas (2): This game really makes me miss living in Virginia, where a surprising number of Cowboys' fans always made this rivalry very entertaining for me, a person who grew up despising both teams. Now that Parcells is gone, so too is my enmity for the Cowboys, but that’s not the reason they are the pick in this one. The loss of S Sean Taylor, finally playing worthy of all the accolades Skins' fans shower upon him, is a real problem for Washington. These teams also come in with opposite emotions, as the Cowboys eked out a tough win over the Giants, while the Ethnic Slurs dropped a toughie to the Eagles. Those trends continue, as the Cowboys beat the banged-up Ethnic Slurs 33-20.
Cloudy Games
Kansas City (19) @ Indianapolis (3): The Colts are suddenly looking like a M.A.S.H. unit, with 13 players on this week’s injury report. The most critical are DE Dwight Freeney (out for the season) and WR's Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez (neither expected to play). The Chiefs have injury woes of their own, namely RB Larry Johnson. It’s games like this where Peyton Manning often proves his greatness, netting huge numbers and improbable wins while throwing to the likes of Craphonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashodu. Even though Chiefs' DE Jared Allen can make Peyton’s life miserable, I learned a long time ago not to bet against a motivated Manning, and last week’s bitter loss will no doubt leave him surly and focused. Indianapolis 26, Kansas City 20.
Chicago (22) @ Seattle (10): The return of Rex Grossman at QB for the Bears comes in one of the worst possible situations. Seattle brings the heat from all angles, and the 12th man ups the pressure cooker to “broil”. It doesn’t help Rex that the Bears' inept running game won’t take any steam off the pass rush. Seattle’s offense has given the Bears' D fits in the recent past, and this Bears' D is not even close to the ominous units Chicago fans are used to seeing. Also conspiring against the Bears: playing on the West coast 2 weeks in a row. Of the last 20 teams from the Eastern or Central time zones to face that challenge, the record is 3-17 in the 2nd game and 2 of those 3 wins came in Oakland, a team the Bears struggled to beat last week. Seattle mauls the Bears 30-13.
Cleveland (13) @ Baltimore (25): Last week the Browns came up just short in their rematch with the Steelers, in large part because the Steeler defense tightened the clamps in the 2nd half while their own defense couldn’t get off the field. But I don’t think the Ravens can just flip the switch and physically dominate the Browns, certainly not by throwing the ball over the top or on broken passing plays. Kyle Boller mercifully takes over at QB for the Ravens, and he can keep the defense honest with his rifle arm, but he is not going to make rushers miss or hold the safeties with fear of him bolting for a 10-yard scramble. I saw a life in the Cleveland defense the last couple of games that tells me they are starting to figure it out, and nothing I’ve seen from the Ravens' offense gives me any indication they are doing the same. Cleveland 24, Baltimore 16.
Tampa Bay (12) @ Atlanta (26): The Falcons remain the only team which I have successfully predicted every week this season. I’m just 4-5 in Bucs' games, including 1-3 in the last 4. So while I have a strong feeling the Bucs are the better team and should win this one, I’m instead going to go with my gut and the anomalic forecast model, where the butterfly flaps his wings, and the Falcons force some turnovers and have lots of success running the ball. Atlanta 20, Tampa Bay 17.
Arizona (17) @ Cincinnati (23): A bad time for the Bengals to face the Cardinals, who put the clamps on the explosive Lions' offense last week, including setting a modern-era record for fewest rushing yards allowed. The Bengals are near the bottom in every rushing statistic, and the state of their OL won’t help change that anytime soon. Two of the three Bengals' wins this year have been over the Ravens, games in which the Ravens turned the ball over 12 times. Arizona gives up the ball a lot more than they take it away, but I don’t foresee anything that dramatic this week. This game looks at first glance like it might be a shootout, but the forecast model I’m reading says to expect a lot of FG's and 3rd & longs. I like the Cardinals' pass rush and secondary more, and that should be the difference. Arizona gets back to .500 with a 23-20 road win.
Carolina (21) @ Green Bay (5): The Panthers play much better on the road than at home, but they’re going to have to significantly improve over their performance the last couple of weeks to have any shot at winning in Lambeau Field. Their punchless, unimaginative offense is no match for a balanced, tenacious Packers' defense. Oh yeah, it will be cold in Green Bay and that Favre guy, he’s pretty good in the foul weather on the opposite shores of Lake Michigan from my home. Maybe Panthers' Coach John Fox should put a picture of DE Julius Peppers on boxes of cheese curds because he’s been missing for far too long. Packers 20, Panthers 3.
Cold November Rain Games
Pittsburgh (4) @ New York Jets (30): Note to Jets' Coach Eric Mangini--you’re about to see how a 3-4 defense should look, complete with physical, active linemen and speedy-but-strong LBs. Your team doesn’t have near enough of either of those to run that defense successfully. Your team also doesn’t have an offensive line good enough to slow it down, meaning your greenhorn QB is in for a long day. Steelers 36, Jets 10.
Miami (32) @ Philadelphia (14): Dolphins’ Coach Cam Cameron finally realizes that Cleo Lemon is not the answer at QB, and it’s time to find out if the answer might be rookie John Beck. They really need a different Beck, namely Mr. Beck from the amusingly cheesy movie The Rundown, as played by The Rock. Now there’s a guy who could take a pounding and still knock down an entire building front with a shoulder! Every time I think the underachieving Eagles are finally getting their nest in order, they lay an empty egg the following week. But the Dolphins' run defense isn’t going to put much of a dent in the Eagles' 4.8 yards per carry stat, and when you can run like that against a team starting a rookie QB with no credible receivers, you’re not going to lose. Philadelphia 23, Miami 13.
Oakland (28) @ Minnesota (27): The Raiders will start former Vikings’ star Daunte Culpepper at QB in hopes of firing up an offense that hasn’t scored more than one TD in a game since September. It doesn’t really matter much who starts at QB for the Vikings because none of them are any good. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings handle the loss of Adrian Peterson. This matchup comes down to this: neither team can throw the ball, but the Vikings' D can stop the run while the Raiders' D cannot. Minnesota 15, Oakland 13.
New Orleans (16) @ Houston (24): A classic matchup of “Something’s Gotta Give” on several fronts: the Texans haven’t thrown a TD pass in 6 weeks, while the Saints' pass defense is horrible; the Saints haven’t had a 100-yard rusher yet this year, while the Texans have allowed a 100-yard rusher in 5 of their last 6 games; New Orleans is 3rd in red zone offense, while the Texans can tighten up the D in the red zone, ranking 3rd as well. The troubling variable in forecasting this game is the iffy status of Saints' LT Jammal Brown because when he’s played well the Saints are very good, but when he’s been out or when he started slow, the NO offense was nowhere to be found. They’re going to need him to slow down Mario Williams, who is playing much better than the stat sheet shows. The Texans are coming off a bye week and get star WR Andre Johnson back, and those two factors tilt the scales towards the home team. Houston 27, New Orleans 24.
Blizzard of Death game
St. Louis (29) @ San Francisco (31)--Last week the voice inside my head told me the Rams were going to beat the Saints, but I ignored it in favor of rationality. After a night out drinking with my friends Dave, Jason, and Pete, my impulse control is about the same as Britney Spears’, and the voice in my head likes the getting-healthier Rams over the talent-starved 49ers. St. Louis 27, San Francisco 13.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Game
The rough forecast carried into the college games last week, where I went 2-4 and couldn’t have been more wrong in a couple of game breakdowns. I’ll keep it simpler this week, following the sage wisdom of my father, who graciously handled the Buckeyes' loss last week without throwing a single beer can at the television. This week you can drink and enjoy that Michelob Light, Dad!
Ohio State at Michigan: All the buildup and hype can be boiled down to this--if Mike Hart and Chad Henne are healthy and can play the full game, Michigan is the better team and will win. But both have major, chronic issues finishing what they start and staying on the field. Because of that, I’ll take the Buckeyes to win 26-22.
Other games:
Georgia 36, Kentucky 27
Clemson 24, Boston College 20
Cincinnati 30, West Virginia 28
