Don't miss your chance for football betting at BetUS.com. As America's #1 sportsbook, BetUS offers the most up-to-date betting lines & odds for all your betting needs.
Football Meteorology For Week 13
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 28th November, 2007 - 1:26 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
RealGM Search
I’m quite thankful for a 12-4 forecast record last week, taking the cumulative total to 119-58. This week’s slate of games features a lot of matchups with wildly variable forecast models, making this one of the tougher mid-season weeks to predict in a long time.
Cold and wet weather is expected for much of the Midwest and Southeast this weekend, which means trouble for precision passing games and punting games. There’s nothing on the order of the Monday Night sog-fest in Pittsburgh last week, but field and/or conditions figure to be less than optimum in from Pittsburgh to Kansas City to Carolina.
Warm and Sunny Game of the week
Green Bay (3) at Dallas (2): Get your barstool early, because the sports bars will be packed for this one! This Thursday night game is on the NFL Network, and if you’re reading this you probably can’t get it at home. It’s funny how the NFL thinks that putting a marquee game like this one, which will likely determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs and home field advantage, on its widely inaccessible network will drive up consumer demand and force cable companies to acquiesce to their demands. But I get the opposite impression from pretty much everyone I talk to--people resent the NFL trying to strong-arm them into either dumping their cable company or trying to raise their cable bills even more than they already go up every other month. Making me pay extra to listen to Bryant Gumbel butcher the play-by-play is not my idea of value for my cable $$. Oh yeah, the game. The most favorable matchup is the Packers' passing offense against the leaky Cowboys' secondary and inconsistent pass rush. Give Favre time and receivers downfield and the game is over. Green Bay 30, Dallas 24.
Seasonably Mild and Pleasant games
Jacksonville (6) at Indianapolis (4): Huge AFC South battle and a real good barometer for just how good the Jaguars really are this season. The Colts have shown surprising vulnerability thanks to injuries to WR Marvin Harrison, DE Dwight Freeney, and along the OL. The emergence of former el busto WR Reggie Williams has provided the Jaguars with the reliable downfield target QB David Garrard sorely needed, and that opens more room for Fred Taylor and Mo Jones-Drew to run at the undersized Colts' D. The Colts dominated the earlier matchup, in Florida no less, and the Jaguars are missing some key personnel as well. I get the impression from the Colts that they are itching to begin their strong playoff run right here, essentially sealing up the tough AFC South. That razor-sharp focus from Manning & Co. is awful tough to beat, especially at home. Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 24.
Seattle (9) at Philadelphia (13): This is one of those games where it’s best to ignore last week when ascertaining the current state of the teams. Philly nearly upset the Patriots, playing a great game both offensively and defensively. Seattle escaped a trip to lowly St. Louis only when Rams backup QB Gus Frerotte fumbled the snap on 4th & Goal form the 1 on the last play of the game. Try and forget all the “do the Eagles have anything left” and the “are the Seahawks saving it for the playoffs” analysis. Two things indicate this forecast strongly towards the Eagles: Seattle hasn’t won a game in the Eastern Time Zone with the temperature below 40 degrees since 1995 (it’s only 5 games, but that’s a long trend!), and the Eagles play much more effectively and efficiently without the injured Donovan McNabb at QB. It’s just one of those flukey things where the team responds better, even though McNabb is clearly more talented than AJ Feely. Philadelphia 32, Seattle 20.
Tampa Bay (8) at New Orleans (14): This matchup really inflames the war inside my head. Everything I’ve seen on the field lately points towards Tampa Bay, but my gut is groaning “Saints! And send down more ice cream!” I’m not going against my gut on the football game when it’s so dead-on about making food decisions. New Orleans somehow keeps their playoff hopes very alive with a 27-20 win over the Bucs.
Cloudy, Breezy games
Cincinnati (22) at Pittsburgh (5): Pittsburgh slogged to a soggy 3-0 win over the pathetic Dolphins one week after getting beaten down by the generally lousy Jets. I believe it’s more of a midseason lull than a sign of impending doom for the Steelers, but with Cleveland hot on their heels and a quickly-improving Bengals' team coming to town, they had better snap out of the lull real soon. The Bengals' D is a good catalyst for offensive awakenings, though the Cincy secondary has played much better the past couple of weeks. Three injuries play a huge role in this game, and all wear the black and yellow: WR Santonio Holmes, T Marvel Smith and S Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are not close to the same caliber without them, and the Bengals are well-suited to capitalize if any can play or are limited by injury. The Bengals finally look like they’re having fun again, and that’s a bad thing for opposing defenses. The weather could play a big role in this game, because the field in Pittsburgh figures to be in poor condition thanks to hosting 3 games between the MNF flood and this game. That benefits the Steelers, but if the field freezes, and it might be below freezing Sunday, the advantage is nullified. Cincy keeps the resurgence rolling, while Pittsburgh continues to sputter. Bengals 27, Steelers 23.
Cleveland (7) at Arizona (17): The Cards must be driving their fans nuts; they beat current playoff teams PIT, DET, and SEA, but get swept by the lowly 49ers and got lit up by punchless BAL and CAR. Cleveland has played its way into the 2nd AFC Wild Card spot, and their improving defense is the reason. Sure, they still rank dead last in yards allowed and are near the bottom in nearly every stat, but over the last 3 weeks they rank 19th in total defense. That’s more than enough with their high-flying offense, keyed by an OL that has allowed just 5 sacks in the last 6 games. Because the Cardinals seem to play better against better teams, and because they’re basically building Pittsburgh West, this figures to be a real test for the Browns. I like how Cleveland has taken care of the ball lately, and the immobile Kurt Warner is often a turnover waiting to happen, somehow at the most inopportune moments. Take away the missed FG loss to OAK, and the Browns' losses are to PIT twice (the 2nd on a missed last-second FG) and New England. In short, they’re taking care of business, and business looks good in the desert. Cleveland 37, Arizona 28.
Houston (19) at Tennessee (12): The Titans are tumbling without injured DT Albert Haynesworth, giving up almost 100 yards per game more on the ground without him. In a strange bizzaro-world twist, his absence has apparently killed the Titans’ own rushing attack too. The Texans are awful at stopping the run despite having one of the best LB's in the game in Demeco Ryans, though my current mental picture of Ryans is Browns' LT Joe Thomas manhandling him while Jamal Lewis plodded right behind him for pretty much the entire 4th quarter last Sunday. The Titans' OL is physical and powerful, and that means trouble for a Texans' defense missing its entire starting secondary and with little pass rush or LB skill outside Ryans. I think the Titans bottomed out last week and will rebound with authority, with or without Haynesworth, because the Texans have little running threat and turn the ball over too much. Tennessee 30, Houston 20.
Detroit (15) at Minnesota (16): Just what the Lions don’t need, facing a Vikings' secondary full of confidence and swagger after running back 3 INT's for TD's last week. Memo to Mike Martz: an effective balance is not running the ball 13 of 15 snaps, then throwing on 23 of your next 24 snaps like you did last week. You don’t have to be Steven Hawking to figure out the pattern there, and the Vikings have enough proven running ability to shorten the game and get Martz all nervous and into “screw the run” mode. With a win the Vikings are actually the leader for the #2 Wild Card spot in the NFC--at 6-6. Minnesota 20, Detroit 17, though there is a voice in my head telling me Jason Hanson winds up a hero in this one.
Cold November Rain games
New England (1) at Baltimore (30): These Ravens might be the worst 4-7 team ever. Consider who they have beaten: the Jets, Niners, and Rams (a combined 7-25), plus a home win over the Cardinals, playing a backup QB and victims of one of the worst “homer” ref calls you’re ever going to see. Their once-proud defense has given up 124 points in the last 4 games (all losses), and their impotent offense has averaged just 2.2 yards per 1st down snap in their last 6 games. That makes for a real bad time to play the perfect Patriots, who figure to be very sharp after a close call against Philly. If you’re one of the millions who despises the egomaniac intelligent Ravens' Coach Brian Billick, this game will be lots of fun to watch. New England 47, Baltimore 9.
Denver (18) at Oakland (26): Ever listen to the radio and hear a song you used to really love but haven’t heard or thought about in years? I just had that happen this morning with the song “Hang Tough” by Tesla, and now I’m screaming like Jeff Keith and doing my best Frankie Hannon air-guitar impression, much to my 2-year old son’s amusement. What does that have to do with this game? Back in high school my friend Bob was a huge fan of both Tesla and the Broncos. Hearing the song made me think back to those late 80's Super Bowl Broncos, and I remember how a big-armed young QB with modest talent around him consistently beat teams with better talent. Jay Cutler might be no John Elway, but the Broncos have more talent than the Raiders at every spot except CB. There’s no great radio controversy here, either: Dave Logan is the best radio color man around. Denver 33, Oakland 19.
San Diego (10) at Kansas City (20): Every time I think the Chargers are getting back to 2006 form, they lay a giant egg. Last week they destroyed the Ravens, and a win in this game would seize the AFC West, probably for the rest of the year. Enigmatic QB Philip Rivers has played well the last two weeks, though he traditionally struggles against KC. The Bolts have lost every road game following a home win this season, but the Chiefs have dropped four in a row and are looking much more like the team most pundits pegged for no more than 5 wins. Getting more downfield throws from young QB Brodie Croyle would really help spice up the Chiefs' offense, but the ultra-conservative Coach Herm Edwards seems like he’d rather lose 17-13 than win 35-30. Memo to Edwards: you play to win the game, no matter what style you play; let ‘em play and see what happens. But it’s December in Kansas City, and that makes the Chiefs a more sure bet than picking against France in a war. Kansas City 24, San Diego 21.
NY Giants (11) at Chicago (21): Yes, I am still singing Tesla’s “Hang Tough” in my head, and it’s an appropriate theme song for this game. The Giants sure appear headed for year another second-half collapse, with QB Eli Manning inexplicably regressing mid-season for the 3rd year in a row. The New York secondary has had issues with the deep ball the past few weeks, and that plays into the hand of the Bears. QB Rex Grossman has a lot of issues, but he does throw a great deep ball. Chicago breathed life back into their fledgling playoff aspirations thanks to Devin Hester beating the Broncos. So long as the iffy Chicago OL can keep Rex from “deer in the headlights” mode, the Bears should be able to outscore the Giants, minus their top 2 RB's and with WR Plaxico Burress significantly slowed by an ankle injury. Even though they haven’t won an NFC game at home this year, I really like the Bears to rise up. Looking at their schedule, they absolutely have to win this game to have any shot at a Wild Card. I think they’ll hang tough and bust a nut. Chicago 29, New York 13.
The “When Jim Cantore Shows Up on Your Street, You Know You’re About to Witness Disaster” games
Buffalo (23) at Washington (24): The tragic death of Washington star safety Sean Taylor casts a terrible pall over this game. It’s impossible to predict how the Skins will respond to losing their beloved teammate in such an awful manner, and I can only imagine what that locker room will be like this week. Buffalo keeps their QB carousel spinning, with rookie Trent Edwards back in. The Bills have some experience in handling a catastrophe like this with the on-field paralysis of Kevin Everett earlier this year, so expect them to empathize but keep their focus. The Skins would be the pick if not for the awful loss of Taylor, but that changes the dynamic beyond any reasonable indicators. Strictly on a guess, Washington 17, Buffalo 16.
San Francisco (29) at Carolina (28): This game has the potential to feature the lowest over/under line in a long time, because neither team has any semblance of an offense. At least the Niners have RB Frank Gore and still try to get him the ball, unlike what the Panthers do with their one actual threat, WR Steve Smith. Normally games between punchless teams come down to special teams and field position, and the Panthers rank dead last in kick coverage and average starting field position. San Francisco 10, Carolina 6.
Atlanta (27) at St. Louis (25): I like to break the season into 4-week windows, and in the last 4 weeks the Rams have played reasonably well, much better than their overall record would have you believe they are capable of playing. The Falcons have also shown recent improvement over their dismal early season, but they’ve been thrashed the last two weeks and still refer to Joey Harrington as their starting QB. Advantage St. Louis. It’s also the second straight game at home for the Rams, and in that situation they have won 14 of the last 18 times and haven’t lost to a team with a losing record. St. Louis 29, Atlanta 16.
The “It’s So Freaking Awful Not Even Jim Cantore Can Get There” game
NY Jets (31) at Miami (32): It’s quite rare that two teams from the same division can be so incredibly awful, but these teams are legit. Miami hasn’t won yet, and this represents the best opportunity to avoid going down as the undisputedly worst team ever. At minimum, the Dolphins can seal up the #1 pick in the 2008 draft by losing, and that might be more important than beating the grounded Jets. The skill position talent in this game is lower than what you’ll see in the SEC Championship game, where you can watch likely #1 overall pick, LSU DT Glenn Dorsey, and then imagine him in Dolphins' colors. New York Jets 17, Miami 13.
The “Drinking After Finals are Over”, or “ready the stomach pump” games
A perfect 4-0 week put the college season back on track. Missouri and West Virginia can clinch berths in the national championship game with wins this weekend. Memo to whiney USC apologists: you cannot lose two games where your team was a combined 51.5 point favorite and still have any legitimate argument that you’re the best team in the country. On paper, maybe, but on the field, hell no!
Oklahoma 39, Missouri 34--tough to beat a team twice in one year, but the Sooners have the firepower to outscore the Tigers once again.
West Virginia 44, Pittsburgh 20--not much of a backyard brawl when you look at the talent disparity between these two clubs
Virginia Tech 30, Boston College 28--If the Hokies had the final two minutes of the first meeting back, this win would put them in the national title game
Tennessee 36, LSU 31--the Vols have been impossible to predict all year, but lately they’ve been much more consistently good.
