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Football Meteorology For Week 16
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 18th December, 2007 - 8:43 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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'Twas the week before Christmas and all thru the NFL
Some teams are forgetting to answer the bell.
It’s onto the playoffs for several good teams
While for others it’s offseason dreams.
Those with little to play except for personal pride
Often wind up losing by margins quite wide.
While those teams looking to set up a bye
Play these late games with emotions quite high.
The playoffs are almost complete,
Filled with the teams who will compete.
But we fan still do not know the seedings
Which means lots of teams hope to be feeding.
On weaker opponents, so the records say
But in the NFL, it’s “Any Given Sunday”
Being a spoiler makes a Xmas merry
Except for the Joneses: Sean, Maurice, and Jerry
It’s also the start of the college bowl season
For so many, it’s a wonderful reason
To feel infused with a dose of school pride
What a great time of year, oh what a ride!
The games
Pittsburgh (7) at St. Louis (27): At this time of year, veteran-laden teams long eliminated from the playoffs and/or trying to force coaching changes are the ideal opponent for a playoff team looking to cement a better seed. The Rams are a great example of the former, and the reeling Steelers need a confidence builder headed into the postseason, not to mention to stay ahead of the surging Browns. Christmas comes early for the yellow and black, as they seal the AFC North with a 30-6 road win over the Rams.
Dallas (5) at Carolina (20): The Cowboy faithful are putting on a brave face, but in the last two weeks their poor performances have been more a case of other teams figuring them out instead of the Cowboys just not playing well. Taking TO away and keeping Romo hemmed inside a tight pocket has stymied the Dallas offense. Detroit and Philly also camped an extra safety in the box, and Romo was unable to throw over the top, something that also gave him trouble last season. The Panthers are well-equipped to do those same things defensively, but they probably don’t have enough offensive punch to capitalize. Thanks to their defense and Carolina’s mistake-plagued offense, the Cowboys squeak out a 17-16 win.
Philadelphia (18) at New Orleans (12): Frequent readers will note that I strongly believe in huge letdowns after emotional games. Usually it applies to heart-wrenching losses, but I think it pertains for the Eagles here, coming off a huge emotional win over the hated Cowboys. I’m not sure they have anything left in reserve to handle the Saints, who very quietly are clicking pretty well and are still very much alive for the playoffs. If the Saints can get the crowd fired up early, the banged-up Eagles are done. The emergence of 3rd string RB Aaron Stecker has really helped give the Saints the inside running threat they sorely needed to open things up behind the LBs, and Drew Brees & Co. know how to capitalize. Saints 30, Eagles 20.
NY Giants (16) at Buffalo (17): The inevitable appears to be happening once again to the Giants--another unthinkable late-season collapse that takes them from legit NFC contender to the brink of missing the playoffs, if not choking their way completely out of it. This is pretty much a must-win game, because Week 17 brings the Patriots, and the Giants have failed miserably in must-win games under Tom Coughlin. Losing Jeremy Shockey, the only player on offense who outwardly shows any emotion or hatred of losing, certainly is not going to help the cause. The Bills were eliminated by losing to the Browns last week in some of the worst weather conditions ever, and they lack a powerful north-south runner to grind out yards in cold, windy weather and slippery field conditions, which is always a distinct possibility in Buffalo in December. The Giants have Brandon Jacobs in that role, and their OL is the one piece of the offense that hasn’t regressed. So the question becomes: can Eli Manning not screw up bad enough to cost them this game, and perhaps a once-promising season? It could happen, but I need to see it first before I believe it. Buffalo 17, New York 13.
Green Bay (2) at Chicago (22): Last week the Bears had a +3 turnover margin, took a 10-point lead with 30 seconds to go in the 1st half, bottled up the spectacular Adrian Peterson, and still managed to lose to the Vikings. They’re not likely to have any of those positives in this game. Green Bay is playing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and their ability to spread the field in 3 and 4 WR sets and still pound RB Ryan Grant up the gut is a lethal combo to an undisciplined, undermanned Bears defense. Green Bay 34, Chicago 10.
Cleveland (9) at Cincinnati (23): Those outside of Ohio probably won’t understand this, but this is the biggest game for the Browns since they played the Bengals in the final game before He Who Cannot Be Named moved the team. Cleveland sports fans are finally getting more confident about our teams (yes, I’m a Lions fans first, but the Browns are in my blood), after better-than-expected seasons by the Cavaliers and Indians. Those teams both won huge games and series at crunch time and soared to great heights, leaving us feeling like the 43-year old Curse of Losing spell might just be wearing off. Beating the Bengals to clinch a Wild Card berth would be the sweetest victory for the Browns in 20 years, since the miracle playoff comeback overtime victory over the Jets. Before this past year, I would have bet the farm the Bengals would rain all over the Browns parade. But it seems like Cleveland has a swagger, like it’s our year for feeling good and overachieving. The improving Bengals secondary and OL will be a tough test, but Jamal Lewis running behind the best OL in the AFC is a huge advantage for which the Bengals have no answer. Cleveland 34, Cincinnati 29.
Kansas City (24) at Detroit (25): Two months ago both these teams looked like solid, albeit surprising, playoff teams. Those feel-good stories are buried under extensive losing streaks (7 in a row for KC, 6 for DET) marked by apathetic players playing some pathetic football, not to mention some iffy coaching decisions and awful breaks. The primary difference: the Chiefs haven’t completely quit yet, whereas the Lions played like the season was over after the heartbreaking loss to Dallas. Another embarrassing loss and out-of-touch press conference might cost Lions coach Rod Marinelli his job, though the true fall guy needs to be the man who hired him. The “Fire Millen” brigade will be out in full force, and I’ll down a glass of eggnog in their honor after the 5th turnover in this mistake-filled, poorly executed game. Chiefs 20, Lions 17.
Houston (14) at Indianapolis (3): The Colts are coasting a bit, having clinched a 1st round bye and allowing injured regulars to sit out to get healthy. The Texans came close to pulling off the upset earlier this year, and, unlike most eliminated teams, they are a young squad looking to build positive momentum for next season by finishing strong. Knocking off the Colts would make an excellent step in that direction, and the improved play of Mario Williams and the Texans pass defense means they have the ability to do it. But Peyton Manning has a QB rating of 127.9 in his last 4 games against the Texans, and if he’s anywhere close to that, the home team wins. I’m not betting against Peyton Manning at home. Indianapolis 33, Houston 27.
Oakland (29) at Jacksonville (4): See the above Steelers/Rams preview, except put the playoff team at home in this matchup. The Raiders do have some youngsters to give valuable experience, so they might put up a game fight if they can survive the first half. Stranger things have happened, but I wouldn’t bet on it here. Jacksonville 27, Oakland 13
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Atlanta (30) at Arizona (21): If the Falcons were going to show any fight over their coach quitting, it would have come last week while the wound was fresh. There was no fight, just a bunch of lost souls preparing to set flight for the offseason. It’s hard to blame them after all they’ve been through this year, but it’s still awful disheartening to see professionals just going through the motions. The Cardinals are also playing for next year, and the injuries continue to mount, but the players there seem intent on building momentum for 2008. Cardinals 30, Falcons 10.
Baltimore (31) at Seattle (10): As I mentioned about the Rams, vet-laden teams suffering through a dismal season are the ideal opponent for a playoff team looking for a confidence boost. These Ravens have been mailing it in since their near-win over the Patriots, and the teams they beat for their 4 wins (none since Oct. 14th) have a combined 15 wins. That means Baltimore is little threat to the Seahawks, who return home licking their wounds after a surprisingly uninspired loss to the Panthers. It’s games like this that get coaches fired, no matter what the owner says about Brian Billick. Seattle 37, Baltimore 10.
NY Jets (28) at Tennessee (13): The Titans have to win to keep their dim playoff flame flickering. The Jets fought hard under horrible conditions to put a little scare into the Patriots last week, and that’s something that often spells doom the next week. Each of the 3 prior teams to give the Pats a close game lost the next week, and these Jets are a lot more like the Ravens than the Eagles or Colts, the other teams who walked in those shoes. Baltimore got annihilated the next week and hasn’t been the same since, and I suspect the desperation-mode Titans will keep the Jets rolling down that hill. Titans 23, Jets 10.
Tampa Bay (8) at San Francisco (26): This game will almost certainly be decided in the first few minutes of the game. If the Bucs get up quickly, it’s not going to be a happy day for the home fans. But if the Niners can take an early lead and play well thru the 1st quarter, the Bucs are apt to call it a day and play to not get any injuries. That scenario strongly favors Tampa Bay, according to the stats: Tampa Bay is 7th in 1st quarter point differential, while the 49ers are 31st. I was surprised by how many times the 49ers won this game during my mental simulations, but Jon Gruden knows how to position a team for a postseason run, and part of that is not getting tripped up by inferior opponents. Tampa Bay 24, San Francisco 6.
Miami (32) at New England (1): The Dolphins proved me prescient last week in avoiding a winless season, but the chances of them stopping the Patriots from an undefeated season are smaller than the chances I ever fly Northwest Airlines out of Hartford ever again. If you’re ever at Bradley Intl. Airport and you get Jose as a gate agent for NWA, do me a favor and kick him in the groin very hard with steel-toed shoes. Anyone who laughs at harried travelers who missed a flight by 30 seconds because his fellow ticket agents are excruciatingly inept, then brags about it to fellow agents, deserves to be beaten with the lumps of coal he’s getting from Santa. New England 33, Miami 6.
Washington (15) at Minnesota (11): The most meaningful game to be played Sunday is the last one, the Sunday Nighter in Minnesota. If the Vikings win they eliminate the Ethnic Slurs and would clinch a playoff spot if the Saints lose either of their final two games. The Vikings are streaking and come off a win over Chicago in which they played pretty poorly but still took care of business. The Skins are also playing good football lately, upsetting the Giants a week after crushing the Bears thanks to steady play from QB Todd Collins and a revitalized rushing attack. The Skins have fared quite well against lower-tier (read: crappy) QBs, and though Tarvaris Jackson has shown improvement, he’s still a long way from being the reason the Vikings win games. But I’m not sure the Slurs decimated defense has an answer for the Peterson-Taylor combo, and the chest painters and helmet wearers will give the home team enough of a boost to help the Vikings pull it out. Minnesota 23, Washington 17.
Denver (19) at San Diego (6): Remember playground football math, where Team A beat Team B by so much, and Team B beat Team C by so much, so Team A will beat Team C by so much? Consider this daisy chain: Detroit beat Denver 44-7, and San Diego beat Detroit 51-14. By playground math, that means the Chargers will beat the Broncos by 37 points. I don’t think it will be that bad, but as the king of playground football at South Street Elementary School circa 1982, I trust in the power of playground math. San Diego 37 (like you didn’t see that score coming!), Denver 14.
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Bowl Predictions:
Because the Bowl season drags on for the better part of 3 weeks, I’ll include predictions only for the bowl games of the current week. If you’re curious how I feel about the more marquee games, check the college football message boards and chime in.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia: Utah vs. Navy, Dec. 20th --Both these teams are better than most people think they are, and Utah is an impressive 3-3 against other bowl teams. Navy played the 3rd easiest schedule of any team, and is breaking in a new coach (a great hire in Ken Niumatalolo). They also have the 4th worst pass yardage differential in CFB history, though in large part because they almost never throw on offense. This one might be fun to watch just to hear the announcers have to say all the Hawaiian names of the Utes and the Navy coach. Utah 34, Navy 17.
New Orleans: Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic, Dec. 21st--Raise your hand if you care about this one. Me neither. I like the FAU passing attack and the fact they’ll be all juiced up for the first bowl game in school history. They also led the nation in turnover margin and have a coach who has won infinitely more important bowl games than this one for another team from Florida. FAU 33, Memphis 27.
New Mexico: Nevada vs. New Mexico, Dec. 22nd--I’ll be honest with this one: I watch more football and pay closer attention to it than pretty much any other human, and I know next to nothing about either team. This is a home game for New Mexico, though that didn’t help them last year when they lost in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl. These teams faced two common opponents and the Lobos won both more convincingly than the Wolfpack, so they are the pick in the battle of Wolves. New Mexico 36, Nevada 31.
Pioneer Las Vegas: UCLA vs. Brigham Young, Dec. 22nd--Somehow UCLA won the first meeting back in September, but both teams are very different now. UCLA dropped 4 of its last 5 and got their coach fired thanks to lots of injuries and a lack of player development. BYU has very young, very talented players across their offense, and they’re much better at running it now than they were 3 months ago. The Cougars have a legit shot at making a BCS Bowl next season, and winning big here would be a good way to impress the preseason pollsters, who will come out with their first list approximately 8 months before the next season begins. BYU 40, UCLA 13.
PapaJohn’s.com: Cincinnati vs. Southern Mississippi, Dec. 22nd--USM already fired their longtime head coach, Jeff Bower, and they have more talent than their final record suggests. I am a big fan of Cincy coach Brian Kelly, and his teams have handled long layoffs and kicked butt in the past. If the Golden Eagles can’t pressure Cincy QB Ben Mauk, it’s going to be ugly for Bower, but if his defense can force the issue and get off the field, expect a very entertaining shootout. Cincinnati 30, So. Miss 19.
Hawaii: Boise State vs. East Carolina, Dec. 23rd --East Carolina literally cannot give away tickets to Hawaii for its fans to go see this game. Think about that for a minute--folks from Goldsboro and Greenville are so uninspired by their football team they won’t go to Hawaii for Christmas to see them play. Boise gets the luxury of playing in familiar environs and a less grating travel schedule. It’s also a likely NFL sendoff game for stud T Ryan Clady and popular RB Ian Johnson, though ECU has a dynamic future NFLers in RB/KR Chris Johnson, who led the country in all-purpose yards and has a lot of Brian Westbrook in him. These teams usually play very entertaining bowl games and this one is likely no exception, and a better bet than the Minnesota-Washington NFL game going on at the same time. Boise State 44, ECU 35.
