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Football Meteorology For Week 17
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 26th December, 2007 - 2:02 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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The final week of the regular season is perhaps the most difficult to forecast of any week. Week One is a toughie because of a lack of baseline data and proven results, but if you can correctly factor the offseason fortunes and some simple realities, you can still come up with a pretty accurate forecast. But this week is different because it's darn near impossible to predict how different teams handle their different circumstances. Will a team that has already clinched a playoff seed rest its starters, and as a sub-tangent, how well do the reserves perform when pressed into non-essential duty? Does a team capping off a disappointing season just mail it in, or do they play for personal pride and momentum for next year? Are some players trying to force changes, either of their own addresses or coaches? You can make some rough guesses, but the reality is that they are indeed guesses.
I've guessed pretty well for the season, posting a 156-84 forecast. That's basically an average of 10-6 each week, and that would get me into the playoffs this year. It's also 2 games better than my season record at this point last year, and yearly improvement is the sign of progressive warming. Next year will be hotter than my recurring dream where Jennifer Love Hewitt is covered in Arabic writing, and we're, uh, doing some “exploring” in the basement bedroom of the farm house I grew up in.
New England (1) at New York Giants (13): The Patriots' quest for perfection concludes in New York, a place where Bill Belichick once coached for nearly 24 whole hours. The Giants salvaged their playoff dignity with a huge win over Buffalo last week and sewed up the #5 seed so they have nothing to play for and a boatload of key injuries. No doubt they'll talk a good game all week about how they believe they can win and will go all out to do so, but after Brady finds Welker and Moss for TD's less than 8 minutes into the game (sandwiched around an Eli sack and INT), Coughlin's charges will go into self-preservation mode and prep for the Bucs next week. One thing I've always admired about Bill Belichick is that his teams never ease up, and that pays off in weeks like this one. Patriots 38, Giants 13.
Dallas (2) at Washington (15): The Skins have everything to play for, as it's “win and they're in”. The Cowboys have clinched the #1 seed, suffered a bad blow in losing TO last week, and know they can hammer Washington should they improbably meet again in two weeks. The Vikings would represent a bigger danger to them so the Cowboys can actually help themselves by losing this game. I don't want to speculate that Wade Phillips allows that type of thinking but don't be surprised if the Cowboys play less than inspired football, even in this bitter rivalry game. I also like the karmic angle of the Skins using the death of Sean Taylor as inspiration for a playoff run. Ethnic Slurs 24, Dallas 20.
Detroit (19) at Green Bay (4): The Packers threw out their yearly clunker last week, thanks to one of the worst days by a punter in NFL history. Detroit broke their losing streak and rediscovered T.J. Duckett in the gameplan. As a Lions' lifer I like to think that a .500 finish after a decade below that mark is enough inspiration, but as a Lions' lifer I know better. I also know that the Packers have enough talent to beat the Lions even if Favre, Hawk, and the other Packers stars mentally take the day off. Green Bay 30, Detroit 17.
Buffalo (14) at Philadelphia (17): Last week the Eagles looked very much like the team I expected to see last summer when I predicted they would make the NFC title game. Their main issue has been sustaining that high level of play, and with nothing to play for in this one, I doubt they have an encore in them. Give Buffalo credit for getting the most out of their limited resources but losing Pro Bowl T Jason Peters is perhaps the most costly of the myriad injuries they've endured. Coach Dick Jauron has been in this boat before. When he took over for the fired Steve Mariucci in Detroit, he willed an undertalented unit into what resembled a decent team that played hard until the season was over, and I expect his Bills' charges will do the same. This game will almost certainly be decided quickly; if the Eagles jump out to an early lead and get the crowd fired up, they'll cruise to an easy win; but if the Bills hold a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes and the Eagles look flat, the boobirds will be chirping and the Bills should hold on. On a hunch, Philly 27, Buffalo 16.
Cincinnati (21) at Miami (32): This game should be a great example of how you can use football to educate your children. Have them practice counting to 10 by tallying the turnovers. Show them basic geometry by showing where Cleo Lemon should have thrown the ball instead of where he did. Show your kids that adult men can dance together by watching Chad Johnson and Chris Henry block on running plays. Otherwise, you should watch this game at your own peril. The Bengals have alternated wins and losses over the last 8 weeks, and they won last week. That means Miami notches win #2. Dolphins 25, Bengals 24.
Carolina (23) at Tampa Bay (10): This might be the last game of the John Fox era in Carolina, and I'll give you 3 great reasons why a change can be justified.
His stubborn refusal to play clearly more talented players in deference to “safer” veterans. Witness Deshaun Foster playing ahead of Deangelo Williams, Justin Hartwig over Ryan Kalil, Michael Gaines over Jeff King last year. Too often he's chosen the Taurus over the Mustang in a league where sports cars dominate.
Shipfuls of empty seats at home games, thanks in large part to vanilla gameplans and underwhelming results, not to mention the awful home record this year. Owners don't like empty seats.
The stars on the team, Julius Peppers and Steve Smith, both quit on him and have not-so-subtly campaigned for change. It's a lot easier to dump the coach than to overhaul the locker room and deal popular players.
Having said that, they stand a good chance to win this game thanks to the Bucs resting up for the playoffs next week. Plus, Fox might actually let his young talent get extensive playing time, and the Panthers do have some intriguing young talent. Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 13.
Jacksonville (5) at Houston (16): The Jaguars offense is humming along in great tune lately with Fred Taylor proving he merits a Pro Bowl spot. The Texans play much better at home and would love to finish .500. But there are reasons why the Texans haven't won a division game this year, and the Jaguars are perfectly suited to exploit those flaws: turnovers, rushing yards per carry, and defensive yards per carry. The Texans rank in the bottom 7 in all three categories; the Jags are in the top 6 in all 3. This game represents precisely why Week 17 is so freaking hard to forecast--the Jaguars should win, but the combination of their playoff seed already set, the Texans desperately trying to build momentum for next year, and the fact neither team has been in these scenarios lately, there are just so many butterflies flapping their wings. I do know Jags' Coach Jack Del Rio is not one to rest his starters or scale back his attack, and that tilts the scales to Jacksonville. Jaguars 30, Texans 27.
Seattle (9) at Atlanta (30): Neither team has anything to play for as the Seahawks are locked into the #3 seed, and the Falcons will have a top 3 draft pick no matter what happens here. I'm still trying to figure out how Seattle lost to Carolina two weeks ago, the only blemish in the last 7 games. It's clunkers like that which frustrate both their fans and pundits like myself, who believe they can win the NFC but could just as easily lose to the unmitigated disaster that are these Falcons. Seattle 33, Atlanta 20.
Pittsburgh (7) at Baltimore (31): The Steelers wrapped up the AFC North last week, but they're still fighting for the #3 seed and a much easier opponent in the playoffs. The Ravens are very much one of those teams that quit early and sure look like they're trying to get their coach fired. Because this is a nasty rivalry, I do leave the door cracked for a shocker, but there's not enough whiskey in the jar to make me forecast the upset. Losing Willie Parker is a crushing injury, but it won't bite the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 6.
San Francisco (25) at Cleveland (11): It's rare to find a team in the Browns' situation. They currently hold the #6 seed, but whether they win or lose this game matters not. If the Titans win, the Browns lose the tiebreaker even if the Browns win this one. Likewise if the Titans lose, the Browns are in even if they lose this game. The Niners just might have found themselves a QB in Shaun Hill, but the Browns have more firepower and the visitors struggle to force turnovers. Expect monster ratings for the Sunday Night game (IND-TEN) in the Cleveland market, and I think they'll be optimistic following a Browns' win. Cleveland 27, San Francisco 23.
Tennessee (12) at Indianapolis (3): Colts' Coach Tony Dungy is the reason why many fantasy football leagues end their season a week early. That's both a compliment and a criticism; it's great that his teams are often in position to rest their key players for the playoffs in the last week of the regular season, but it also can warp the playoff picture below them as it will in this case. The Titans “win and they're in” and they're relatively healthy, though they've not played really well since a Week 9 drubbing of the Panthers. Expect a close, physical game and for the unheralded Colts' defenders to make their names known. Indianapolis 17, Tennessee 16.
New Orleans (18) at Chicago (22): The last time these two played, it was for the right to play in the Super Bowl. Now they're trying to avoid drafting in the top 10 and building for a rebound year next season. I believe the Bears are spent after an emotionally charged whipping of the Packers last week, and I also believe the Saints want both revenge and a .500 season very badly. Saints 33, Bears 20.
Minnesota (8) at Denver (24): Minnesota has to win and also pray for help from the Cowboys. In the last 14 seasons, 11 teams have found themselves in this exact scenario (needing a win and one other team to lose). Those teams have gone 9-2, and the Broncos have looked woefully overmatched since Thanksgiving, dropping 4 of 5 with 3 of the losses to teams under .500. The speed of the Vikings' LB's contains big plays and closes holes in the shallow passing game quickly, and that means Jay Cutler will have to stand in and beat them over the top. He might hit a couple, but the Minnesota secondary is playing quite well. They also have this guy named Adrian Peterson striving for a rushing title as a rookie, and the Broncos have some of the worst tackling in the league. Vikings 29, Broncos 10.
St. Louis (28) at Arizona (20): I don't mean to demean this game, but who really cares? Cardinals 24, Rams 18.
San Diego (6) at Oakland (27): #1 overall draft pick Jamarcus Russell made his first lengthy appearance last week for the Raiders. His line: 7-of-23, 83 yards, 1TD, 3INT, and a fumble. Chargers' fans know that line well, thanks to Ryan Leaf. At least Russell didn't pick a fight with any journalists after the game though one Raiders insider I know wishes Russell would flash a little more fire and fight. It's going to get worse before it gets better for Russell and the Raiders. San Diego 37, Oakland 6.
Kansas City (29) at New York Jets (26): Say what you will about the crushing disappointment of the Jets' 3-12 record, but in the last 4 weeks the embattled, misfit defense has played its collective butt off. Pretty much everything else about them remains a poorly coached, under-talented, mistake-prone mess, though the fans in KC believe the same about their beloved. Other than Jared Allen and Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs have either stopped playing or simply can't play at an NFL level. The Jets suck less, and they'll extend the Chiefs' losing streak to 9. Jets 27, Chiefs 10.
Bowl games:
I'll include this game with the NFL slate because it takes place tonight (Wed.). Look for the rest of the Bowl picks later this week. So far I'm a very happy 5-1, though I did lose my confidence pick #29 when Boise State lost to East Carolina.
Motor City: Purdue vs. Central Michigan, Dec. 26th: A rematch game, and Purdue absolutely dominated the first meeting back in September. But this Chippewas' team was just beginning to adjust to a new coach and different offensive scheme back then, and now they are much more fluent in the new spread system. Both teams throw, throw, and throw some more, and their idea of defense is often forcing the other team to use 10 plays instead of 5 to score. Draftniks will want to check out CMU QB Dan Lefevour. Though he won't be in this draft, the sophomore has more than a little Vince Young in him, and I expect he will be the next very good NFL QB from the MAC. Purdue does have a bit more talent on defense and they handled the Chips and also Northwestern, which runs a similar offense. This should be one of the more fun games to watch if you like offense, and both teams appear both focused and excited to be in the game. With apologies to my herd of CMU grads/fans I call friends, in my confidence pick #3 (out of 32, which means I'm seriously up in the air on this one), Purdue squeaks out a 43-41 victory.
