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New Year’s Day & BCS Bowl Forecast
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 31st December, 2007 - 12:57 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
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The shrimp cocktails, cheese and sausage tray, chicken wings, and coolers of ice-cold adult beverages are primed and ready for the orgy of football over the next few days. For those of you who indulge like me during this festive time, here’s a way to keep off the unwanted blubber: do a sit-up for each point scored via touchdown and a push-up for every point scored via field goal during every game you watch. Utilize the small break in the mid-evening to take a brisk walk and stop eating by halftime of the Sugar Bowl.
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee-- These are the two biggest disappointments for my money this past college football season. In fact, I predicted both these teams to play in BCS Bowls. Tennessee is the most schizophrenic team in the country; they blew out Georgia and Arkansas yet lost to Florida by 39 and Alabama by 24. They have enough talent to beat any other team in the country, but too often Erik Ainge & Co. look like they’ve never practiced together. Wisconsin’s defense underachieved and had loads of trouble against QB's who didn’t turn the ball over. Too often they played down to the level of their vastly inferior opponents (UNLV, Minnesota, Citadel). So this game probably comes down to which coach can inspire his team to finish strong and take the game seriously. I give that advantage to the Badgers and Bret Beilema, in part because Tennessee is in the midst of an assistant coaching overhaul. If Tennessee shows up they should win easily, but that is about as predictable as the Iowa Caucus, and I know the Badgers will come to play. Wisconsin 20, Tennessee 16, but don’t be surprised if Tennessee wins 33-13.
Cotton Bowl: Arkansas vs. Missouri-- It will be interesting to see how seriously Missouri takes this game. Their disappointment with being left out of the BCS could cause them to not prep as intensely as they might otherwise, though knowing their players and the importance the program has put on winning marquee games, I doubt that happens. They’re going to struggle to slow down Darren McFadden and Felix Jones and the unique Arkansas offense. This has all the trappings of a shootout, and I’m very much looking forward to watching future NFLer's McFadden, Jones, Mizzou TE's Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman, WR Will Franklin, and Razorbacks' WR Marcus Monk. The coaching change at Arkansas leaves their own motivation uncertain, and Mizzou is too sharp to beat if they’re not completely united and focused. Missouri in an entertaining show, 33-31.
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida-- Michigan fans are praying the team hasn’t lost its focus after the ham-handed coaching change and likely defection of QB-of-the-future Ryan Mallett. Sending out Lloyd Carr on a winning note is a fine theory, but there’s a reason why most UM fans aren’t really upset; this is his swan song. Remember the Appalachain State and Oregon humiliations? Florida plays the same style of offense, only they have Heisman winner Tim Tebow and perhaps the fastest skill position players in the country. With all the departing talent, this might be the last time Michigan plays in January for a couple of years, but I’m afraid Wolverine fans won’t enjoy this one very much. Tebow goes wild, the Gator defense gets to Chad Henne, and Florida cruises to a 37-17 win.
Gator Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Virginia-- This one is a good chance to check out UVA DE Chris Long, who is one of the top 5 NFL prospects for the upcoming draft. He’ll need to be effective because the Texas Tech offense is throw-happy and potent. WR Michael Crabtree could wind up the most prolific WR in CFB history by the time he’s done, and QB Graham Harrell is more than just a system QB. The Cavaliers have struggled in big games under Coach Al Groh, though this year there were fewer clunkers. Fewer, but not zero. Losses to NC State and Wyoming prove they still have the ability to lay a pretty big egg. Still, the Hoos (I lived in Virginia for 4 years and have no idea what that means) excelled in close games, and QB Jameel Sewell emerged as a fairly reliable playmaker. The Red Raiders lost 3 of their last 5, though in their finale they did upset Oklahoma and did so in very impressive fashion whereas UVA lost to rival Virginia Tech in a game that decided a berth in the ACC Title game. It’s really difficult to look past those two final performances. Texas Tech 38, Virginia 33.
Sugar Bowl: Hawaii vs. Georgia-- Hawaii is undefeated, but I put a giant asterisk next to that record. The only time they crossed the Rockies, they squeaked past lowly Louisiana Tech by one point. The only opponents who made a bowl game (Fresno State and Boise State) both came to them and had chances to win late. They played 8 home games, taking full advantage of the time difference and the novelty of most visiting players making their first trip to the islands. They don’t even try to run the ball and kept their starters throwing and running gadget plays when leading by 4 TD's in the second half. I’m not saying they’re not a talented group because there is skill on the roster, and they have an aura of being a family like few other college teams ever achieve. Their run and shoot offense can give undisciplined defenses fits, and QB Colt Brennan does a great job finding the mismatches and putting the ball exactly where his WR's can catch it and have room to run. Georgia has the best freshman RB in the country in Knowshon Moreno, a great QB in Matt Stafford, and experience playing on a big stage and in this stadium. If you’ve followed college football at all lately, no doubt you’ve heard the refrain “no team is playing better than Georgia” since mid-October. They handily beat similar (but not as wide-open) offenses in OK State and Florida, and Hawaii’s defense isn’t anywhere close to as good as Auburn, Florida, or Georgia Tech--all teams the Bulldogs lit up for at least 31 points. Hawaii simply won’t be able to stop the run, and their offense consistently grows impatient and more mistake-prone the longer they sit on the sidelines. Georgia preps for a national title run next year (you heard it here first!) with a 46-37 win.
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC-- I’m one of the few people who give Illinois a real shot at winning this game. The Juice Williams/Rashard Mendenhall/Arrelious Benn package on offense is capable of lighting up any defense, and their underrated OL can handle the pressure. They play an aggressive, flowing defense that baits and switches coverages quite effectively. Don’t get me wrong here--USC is far more talented across the board and closed the season looking very much like “they are who we thought they were” when most people crowned them favorites to play for the national title. The Trojan defense is loaded with future NFL players, and they get the luxury of playing essentially a home game. If Illinois can come out and make an early statement, they’ve got a shot because this USC team has shown they don’t handle adversity really well. But if he Trojans nab an early 10-0 lead, it’s not going to be pretty for Chief Illiniwek. USC 30, Illinois 20, though I placed a confidence value of just 11 on this one.
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma-- The coaching change at WVU and the strange circumstances around both Rich Rodriguez’s departure and hiring his successor puts the Mountaineers at a distinct disadvantage. Another disadvantage is the Oklahoma defense which has the personnel (LB Curtis Lofton, CB Reggie Smith) and big-game experience to handle the spread attack. As long as QB Sam Bradford is 100% and has time to survey the field, I don’t see the WVU defense having many quick stops. But West Virginia has the talent to score on any offensive play with a variety of weapons, and the loss of their coach could incite a bunker mentality that’s tough to beat. That would not surprise me, but I cannot bet on it, certainly not after how poorly they executed in the crushing loss to Pitt. Oklahoma 27, West Virginia 25.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas-- Were it not for the final 90 seconds of their game against Boston College, the Hokies would be playing for the national title. On the flip side, Kansas did not beat a single team that won a bowl game. I’ll give the Jayhawks credit for overachieving and playing an offense that allows QB Todd Reising to spread the ball to each and everyone, but there is not a positional matchup in this game that favors Kansas. The speed of the VT defense and the gambling nature of quality CB's Macho Harris and Brandon Flowers means the Hokies can snuff the Kansas attack and turn mistakes into points. Coach Beamer has yet to win a BCS game, and I know his players want to end that inglorious distinction. This Kansas team reminds of the year Tulane put together an unexpectedly great season and then got smoked in a bowl when they played someone legitimately talented. The Hokies are legitimately talented. They also get the advantage of playing in the Orange Bowl, and that’s one of their team colors. Hey, people have picked games for more asinine reasons than that! Virginia Tech 37, Kansas 24.
And a teaser for the NFL playoffs: nobody wants to play Jacksonville or Washington…for good reason!
