20 Questions For The 2008 Season
The NBA and NHL are done, and training camps are about to fire up. Team season previews are on the way, but to whet the appetite here are 20 questions about the upcoming NFL season.
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Rules Of Thumb For Father’s Day
Thumbs up to the Raiders and Strahan, thumbs down to the owners and veterans, thumbs twiddling to Matt Ryan, a sucking thumb for Benson and the preseason NCAA rankings.
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$.10 for the Very Merry Month of May
With May being a slow month in the world of football, Jeff muses on the top 10 picks of the 2009 draft, Cedric Benson, the USC/OSU game and why the Chargers could be in trouble.
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Rules of Thumb, Post-Draft Edition
Thumbs up to the Chiefs and Sirius with thumbs twiddling to the Panthers, the new draft format, and much, much more.
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A Fine Line Between Gold And Lead
In this column, Jeff Risdon answers the question he most often receives; Who is horribly overrated and destined for NFL failure, and has real under-the-radar value?
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$.10 for Spring Break
In his latest edition, Jeff talks about Chad Johnson, draft sleepers, Pacman Jones, former South Carolina RB Cory Boyd, and why QB situations aren't always as dire as they seem.
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Hair Piece Distracting From The Face Of Change
The NFLPA has the option to opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) this November, and if that happens the NFL as we know it will likely cease to exist.
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Rules Of Thumb, Free Agency Edition
Thumbs up to the Seahawks and Browns, down to the Raiders and Bears, while twiddling thumbs go to Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Best and last of all are the sucking thumbs of the Jets and Lance Briggs.
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The Top 103, Version 3.0: Post-Combine Edition
There is an abundance of movement from the last list, primarily as a result of interviews, workouts, and more in-depth information from front offices and scouts I gathered while in Indy.
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Rules Of Thumb: Combine Edition
The annual orgy of scouring every conceivable flaw of the upcoming NFL draftees is mercifully over. Who left Indy with Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down, Thumbs Twiddling and Thumbs Sucking?
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Risdon's Sunday Combine Notes
Jeff Risdon checks in with his latest set of notes from the NFL combine in Indianapolis. Read what he had to say about Darren McFadden, Desean Jackson and the tight end position.
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Friday Notes From The Combine
All the big coaching and front office names everyone would recognize are here now, and Jeff Risdon is tuned in to the comings and goings in Indy.
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Notes From The Thursday Combine
Jeff Risdon, RealGM's football insider, dishes on Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Deshaun Foster, and the thoughts of the Miami Dolphins.
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Forecasting Offseason Moves
Between predicting where the prominent free agents will end up and who wins the war in Cincinnati, Jeff Risdon briefs you on the offseason that is very much here already.
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$.10 For The Super Bowl
The NFL season comes to a close with the Super Bowl this Sunday. And as usual the hype machine is spinning wildly out of control. Here are ten cents for the Super Bowl.
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Seniors Go Bowling For Draft Slots
This week is the annual Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, which provides the best context for which to judge the draft status of many players.
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Championship Round Forecast
The Patriots are so adept at exploiting every opportunity and taking advantage of every slip-up; the Chargers will have to be nearly perfect in order to win. While not quite the same climb, the Giants will have to be perfect, as well, to knock off Green Bay.
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Divisional Round Forecast
Five cents on the end of the college football season and previews of the four NFL games this weekend.
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Sean Taylor Closure
The Wild Card winners move on, but so must one of the weekend’s losing teams. The Washington Ethnic Slurs lost in Seattle, thus ending the fantastic, emotional ride of the last 6 weeks they’ve been riding.
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Wild Card Weekend Could Be Mild
The playoffs are upon us, kicking off this weekend with 4 games. And while there are some intriguing matchups and story lines in these games, for my money some recent off-field developments are far more interesting.
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New Year’s Day & BCS Bowl Forecast
New Year's is here and so are Jeff Risdon's breakdowns for all of the big bowl games.
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Football Meteorology For Week 17
The final week of the regular season is perhaps the most difficult to forecast of any week. It is darn near impossible to predict how different teams handle their different circumstances.
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Football Meteorology For Week 16
Jeff reviews a host of match-ups with playoff implications and the first few Bowl games.
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Football Meteorology For Week 15
David Garrard and the Jaguars versus Big Ben and the Steelers might be the game of the week, but it could also be when the Bills and Browns in the Battle of Lake Erie.
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Football Meteorology For Week 14
Ignoring the pleas of my neighbor to wear pants and clean up all the dog crap in my yard, I feel refreshed about my divining abilities. No more 6-10 weeks for this forecaster!
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Only You Can Fix The BCS
Now that the bowl opponents are scheduled and the final regular-season BCS standings are on the books, here comes the avalanche of complaining and mean-spirited debate over all things college football.
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Football Meteorology For Week 13
The NFL Network's Green Bay @ Dallas game highlights a great week of matchups with playoff implications.
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Football Meteorology For Week 12
Ever since Barry Sanders retired, the Lions have not fared real well on Thanksgiving, but with Calvin Johnson on board, can their fortunes change versus Green Bay?
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Football Meteorology For Week 11
Between Ohio State/Michigan on Saturday and Redskins/Cowboys on Sunday, there are plenty of old rivalry games on the docket this weekend. As always, Jeff Risdon gives you the rundown of what to expect.
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Football Meteorology For Week 10
Last week’s forecast was a dreary 6-8, my worst mark in the last two seasons. It was truly one of the more freakish weeks in a long time. Five different teams scored special teams touchdowns, and all 5 lost.
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One Star Rises, Another Fades
Adrian Peterson has a rare blend of instant acceleration, long-range speed, shoulder-lowering power, and shifty feet that harken back to the consensus best rookie RB, Eric Dickerson.
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Football Meteorology For Week 9
The halfway point of the season is finally here. Before we get to this week’s forecast, it’s time for a quick rundown of midseason awards and the forecast for the RCA Dome showdown and all those 'other' games.
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Football Meteorology For Week 8
The Redskins are constructed in a manner that could give the perfect Patriots some problems, while Panthers' QB Vinny Testaverde has never lost a game he’s played against a Tony Dungy-coached team. Will this be the week they get their first loss?
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Football Meteorology For Week 7
Something that caught my eye is the fact that all the games on the slate are intra-conference, which means long-term playoff implications in several contests.
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$.10 On College Football For Oct. 15th
With so many upsets this season, some people are calling for a playoff as passionately as ever, but Jeff Risdon believes the current system works as well as ever.
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Football Meteorology For Week 6
In honor of the recent shocking realization that the greatest rock album of my lifetime, Appetite for Destruction by Guns N Roses, was released 20 years ago and also a battle of unbeatens in Dallas, here is a special edition of the meteorology.
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Football Meteorology For Week 5
The NFL season is through with the first quarter, and we have seen some major surprises thus far. We’re down to four unbeatens and three winless teams, and history tells us those numbers will be no greater than one each over the next two weeks.
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What Now, Coach?
After 4 weeks, we find 3 NFL teams (San Diego, Chicago and Philadelphia) that were thought to be legit Super Bowl contenders struggling with 1-3 records. Can they recover?
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Football Meteorology For Week 4
Week 4 features lots of intra-divisional contests, which should provide a much more accurate glimpse into the states of reality for several teams. This is the last week where any preseason bias gets eliminated--the teams are what they are, not what they might have been anymore.
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Football Meteorology For Week 3
This week marks the beginning of the power poll rankings. I steadfastly refuse to rank the teams until I’ve seen real games to base upon. Also included are game-by-game predictions, including Sunday night's NFC battle.
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Football Meteorology For 2007, Updated Forecast
Two weeks are in the books, which means we now have a solid baseline of data and observation on which to build better forecasts. Sunny skies in Dallas, Pittsburgh and Detroit, with clouds in New Orleans and St. Louis.
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Football Meteorology For Week 2
What we see over the next few weeks from several teams will be vastly different than how they weathered opening weekend. In the meantime, Jeff Risdon predicts all 16 games, including a potential AFC Championship preview.
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Football Meteorolgy For Week 1
The first week is always the toughest to forecast because there is no track record and no real sense of the prevailing winds. But there are potential Super Bowl previews in Indianapolis and San Diego.
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$.10 For The College Football Season
In this edition, Jeff Risdon gives RealGM his preseason mock draft of the top 10, his predictions for the BCS Bowl series and much much more.
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How To Read Camp Moves
Training camp is now open, and pretty much every day for the next couple of weeks you’re going to see a move or two that raises an eyebrow. A few early ones might seem normal on face value, but here’s what they really mean…
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Retired Players In An Unhealthy Position
While it’s hard to ignore the dire straits and debilitating health problems of so many retired players, there is more than meets the eye.
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Too Early To Write Off Smith
Troy Smith is a low-cost developmental project with very high upside. What more can you ask for a 5th round draft choice for a team with a legit shot at a Super Bowl right now?
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Rules of Thumb, 1st Day Draft Edition
Thumbs up to the Cleveland Browns for their bold first round and to Keyshawn Johnson for his excellent commentary. Meanwhile, thumbs twiddling to the Dolphins and Lions.
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2007 Draft: Dynamite And Bras?
One of the things Jeff Risdon keep getting asked is who he thinks will be surprise booms and high-profile busts from the upcoming draft. Wait no longer for his answers.
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The Consequences Of A Bad Decision
Instead of selecting a franchise quarterback from Texas, the Texans selected a defensive player that was at best the sixth overall player in the 2006 Draft. That decision was compounded with the Matt Schaub trade.
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A Wet Blanket On Free Agency
Jeff Risdon vowed to become more positive in 2007, but after the first few days of the NFL free agent period, he couldn't help but slide back into his old ways.
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Gleanings From The Combine
Jeff Risdon spent Thursday thru Sunday morning at the annual scouting combine in Indianapolis, his second year at the meat market.
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AFC: Preseason Forecast Accountability
Everyone loves to hand out predictions, but then they try to bury them when things go bad. Here at RealGM, we interrogate our own predictions. In the first of a two-part series, we review the AFC.
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A Super Upset In The Final Football Meteorology Of The Season
The Colts are 6-7 point favorites and we usually put a lot of faith in the bookmakers, but our hunch is that they are wrong on this one. Bears 31-20.
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Football Meteorology, Conference Championship Week
One road team has won on conference title weekend every year since 1996, and that trend will continue in Chicago. Jeff also weighs in on Michael Vick and the real reason why Nick Saban left Miami.
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Football Meteorology, Divisional Weekend
San Diego has the best offensive player of the Super Bowl era in Ladanian Tomlinson, but will it be enough to get past the Patriots?
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Football Meteorology, Wild Card Weekend
This week features 4 NFL games, plus two Bowl games involving teams dear to my heart.
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Football Meteorology For Week 17
This is the last week of the regular season, but also when the college bowl season kicks into full blossom. The picks will only feature NFL games with playoff implications, plus some of the more intriguing bowl matchups through New Years Day.
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Football Meteorology For Week 16
Seasoned meteorologists will often cite December and January as the easiest months to accurately predict the weather. Picking football games, on the other hand, is often much more of a challenge.
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Football Meteorology For Week 15
Last week saw a return to forecast accuracy, with an 11-5 mark and three games where I was within a FG of the final score.
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Rules Of Thumb From Week 14
Dallas relies heavily on generating a pass rush to help their woefully inept safeties in pass coverage, but they sacked Drew Brees just once and recorded pressures on just 3 of his 38 attempts.
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Football Meteorology For Week 14
The playoff picture remains awfully cloudy in terms of the wild cards. Right now in the AFC I like the Bengals and Jets, while the NFC looks like Atlanta and the winner of this week’s Carolina-NY Giants matchup.
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Football Meteorology For Week 13
Even though he may have predicted the Giants degeneration into finger-pointing, Jeff Risdon was on the wrong side of the Tony Romo/Drew Bledsoe debate. See who he predicts to win this week's NFC East matchup and the other big games of the week.
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Thanksgiving Edition Of Football Meteorology (Week 12)
Another decent week in the forecast center with an 11-6 mark, and we’re headed into the crunch time of the season.
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Rules Of Thumb For Thanksgiving
Lobbying for someone to lose their job is never fun, but the Lions GM has to pay for his terrible job performance. Whether or not we should see Ohio State vs. Michigan, Part II and more.
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Football Meteorology For Week 11
It’s this point of the season where water is finding its level. That means underachieving squads start to look better, and the overachievers being to fall.
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Football Meteorology For Week 10
Week 10 brings a merciful end to the byes, which also means all teams are apples to apples by having all played 8 games.
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Football Meteorology For Week 9
Eight weeks are now in the books, and the haves are separating from the have-nots. Two of the haves, the Colts and Patriots meet in their annual showdown, again in New England. We forecast this game and many more..
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Football Meteorology For Week 8
Week 8 is a critical halfway point; we’ll know a lot more about the playoff picture after next Monday and we have predictions for the Colts at Denver, Rams at Chargers, Ravens at Saints, Cowboys at Panthers and all the other big games.
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Football Meteorology For Week 7
Late October marks the time when the outdoor teams from the north really start to get significant weather advantages. My football forecast remained strong in Week 6, going 9-4. If you take into account my caveat on the Giants, it was 10-3.
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Rules Of Thumb: College Edition
To the victims of overzealous preseason hype, to Adrian Peterson, to the Trojans, to the Heisman Trophy, to the state of Virginia, to the Big East unbeatens and finally to Indiana's Terry Hoeppner; this week's edition is for and about you.
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Football Meteorology For Week 6
Last week was a weatherman’s dream: 11 correct, 3 wrong, including two forecasts that came within 2 points of being perfect. Jim Cantore would be proud. If you’re local TV weatherman was right 11 out of 14 days, you’d be amazed and impressed.
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Football Meteorology For Week 5
As a youngster I harbored dreams of being a TV weatherman. One of the facets that drew me to meteorology is how every indicator can appear to project certain events, yet those events often don’t happen where or when you expect them, if at all. Picking football games is much the same.
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Rules Of Thumb For Week 3
Thumbs up to the Colts, Bengals, Saints and Rex Grossman, while the Giants, Dolphins, Cards, Bucs and Titans receive thumbs down. Twiddling thumbs to the Eagles, Broncos, Ravens and Panthers and a sucking thumb to the NFL for byes in Week 3.
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Lions, Bears, And Even Some Tigers, Oh My!
I spent my 34th birthday at Soldier Field watching the Bears declaw and emasculate the Lions. As a lifelong Lions fan (my #20 Lions jersey says “Sims”, and it isn’t a throwback), I’m sure I’ve probably seen them beaten worse than 34-7, but never have they beaten themselves so badly.
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$.10 After Week 1
I spent the opening weekend in Las Vegas, which is quite an interesting place to watch football and glean information. Still giddy from watching my beach volleyball hero, Todd Rogers, win the AVP God of the Beach tourney, and my beloved Buckeyes laying the wood to Texas, this week’s $.10…
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$.10 For The End Of Preseason
While Donvan McNabb and Carson Palmer are both looking sharp, the Colts are perilously thin across the board. Early picks for Rookie of the Year awards, the overrated teams from Columbus and Austin, as well as why this columnist is fatigued of all the fantasy football 'gurus.'
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A T.O. From TO
It’s Totally Overdue for a Time Out from Terrell Owens. If you tune in to ESPN or Fox Sports, you’ve been Taken Over with incessant coverage of the TO saga with the Dallas Cowboys.
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Rules Of Thumb, QB Edition
Now that the Steve McNair-to-Baltimore saga is finally complete, the offseason QB shuffle is complete. There have been some inspired moves, some bizarre moves, and some head scratching moves. Here’s how they break down.
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Post Draftum Depression
Now that the NFL Draft is done, there’s a hole in my life. No longer can I constantly tinker with mock drafts, or debate the merits of the Lions picking an offensive tackle over a cornerback. I’ll no longer dream about Mel Kiper’s opinions, nor his hair.
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Mock Draft, Version 3.0
While Reggie Bush is still going to the Texans, Mario Williams is creeping up to New Orleanas at #2. In two free-falls, Vince Young drops to the Raiders at #7 and LenDale White sits all the way until #44 when Baltimore grabs him. And finally, don't buy the Jay Cutler smokescreen the Jets are throwing, it is Leinart or bust for them, otherwise they'll be quite happy with Ferguson.
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A Tale Of Two Cities
Two teams, similar in context, woven together by past greatness and aging generals. Okay, I hate Dickens so enough of that... I'm talking about Green Bay and Tennessee and how they are handling their aging, declining QBs.
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Free Agent Winners And Losers Not Hard To Identify
Normally it's a good debate amongst fans whom the winners and losers in free agency are each offseason. But this winter, there are some clear winners and losers, with precious few in the middle ground. There's still a couple of big fish (Ty Law, Lavar Arrington) and a few intriguing names (Joey Harrington, Charles Woodson, Mike Vanderjagt) still on the open market, but most of the prominent movement has been completed.
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$.10 On The Current Offseason
As the lyrics to one of my favorite songs goes, "There's nowhere to set my aim, so I'm everywhere". Here's 10 NFL thoughts as I immerse myself into the offseason while biding my time waiting for the draft.
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No Salary Cap? No Real Problem Here...
By now you've read all kinds of doom and gloom about the lack of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL and its players. One of the ramifications is that the 2007 season will be played without a salary cap, and Union Chief Gene Upshaw has repeatedly declared that once the cap is gone, it isn't coming back. And while it will change the NFL to some extent, it's not something that most fans should worry about. In fact, it might just be a good thing for all involved.
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Post-Combine Mock
After my trip to Indy to catch the Combine festivities and pry into "Insider" status, here's my latest mock draft. This one goes two rounds, so grab a glass of your favorite beverage and it'll help you digest these 64 picks.
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RealGM Mock Draft Version 1.0
With the Senior Bowl now complete, it's easier to sort out the potential draftees and anticipate where they might go in the upcoming NFL Draft. While I wouldn't necessarily make these picks myself, this is how I see the draft flowing.
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New Faces On The Coaching Carousel
Normally at this time of year it's a dizzying effort to follow the head coaches moving from team to team around the league. But this year the spinning never really started for experienced head coaches. Instead teams whirled up fresh new faces onto the scene, defying the typical motion of the carousel.
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Divisional Round Science
After being dead on correct last week, Jeffrey Risdon's methodology of matchups moves from hypothesis to theory. He'll try his hand at the Divisional Games and work on "law" status on these games and whether or not the Broncos can actually slay the mythical Patriots.
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Picking The Playoffs
Playoff games are all about matchups. Can one team do something exceptionally well that the other team cannot counteract? How does the strengths of one team match against the weaknesses of the other team? If their strengths are neutralized, which team can improvise its way to superiority? That's how to go about picking the playoff winners. Here's the matchups that should determine the outcomes of the Sunday games in the Wild Card round.
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$.10 for Week 15
I'm not one of those people who believes that losing a game will make you better prepared in the playoffs, but I think the Colts will benefit from the loss to the Chargers. Peyton Manning has always had a bit of the yips in pressure-packed games, and now he can just focus on winning a Super Bowl instead of winning the title of Greatest Team Ever.
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Can They Come Back?
This week examines 5 prominent players who have suffered through miserable 2005 seasons. Though the reasons for the declines vary from player to player, there is a common question surrounding all of them. Is it time for teams to give up on them, or can they bounce back into being an impact stud once again? Here's my advice for the GMs, free of charge.
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No Secret To Winning
Around this time of year, when the contenders and pretenders are pretty much sorted, you're going to hear all these highly compensated talking head experts spend five good minutes breaking down why a team is where it is. I'm going to save you lots of time, freeing you to watch more Law & Order reruns or finally get started on your Christmas shopping (cough*Nirvana box set*cough). All you need to know about the difference between playoff team and "we're playing for next season" is who is under center.
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$.10 for Thanksgiving Week
With ten takes, Jeff Risdon goes down the list of NFL hot topics...From the surging Vikes to Reggie Bush and his takes on who deserves the MVP awards.
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The Halfway Awards -- Megadeth Edition
Jeff Risdon gives out 13 midseason awards. With titles such as Rod Smith's 'The Hidden Trasures Award' and the Patriots' 'The Still Alive And Well Award,' this isn't your typical award show.
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10 Cents For Week 7
From comments on Michael Vick, NFL parity and Bill Parcells to Ed Reed, Reggie Bush and Monday Night Football, RealGMfootball's Jeff Risdon is calling shots and taking names.
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Sunday Scenes From a Sports Bar
To put your finger on the pulse of sports fans, all you have to do is visit your local sports bar on a Sunday afternoon. There you'll get to see all the games and hear armchair quarterbacks and all their glory. That is what Encroachment did for Week 4.
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The Injury Bug Rears Its Ugly Head
Three weeks are in the NFL books, and the list of injured impact players grows. While injuries happen every year to seemingly every team, league parity and a lack of capable fill-ins make the injured players appear even more valuable.
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Full Frontal Offensiveness
By varying degrees of surprise the Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders are all 0-2. And there's a common theme amongst that group which explains a lot of their collective misfortune. It's the same reason the Benglas, Steelers, Bucs, and Giants (among others) are 2-0. The biggest difference between the 2-0 and the 0-2 is offensive line play.
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Bounceback Week
Before 49ers and Dolphins fans start clamoring for playoff tickets, or The Mike's (Shanahan and Tice) start looking for new gigs, let the unpredictability of Week 1 die down and reality set in for the next few weeks.
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The Impact Rookies Of 2005
Every year several rookies break out and immediately establish themselves as NFL forces. So who will become this season's Ben Roethlisberger, Anquan Bolden, or Tommie Harris? There's always a few surprises, but one things is for sure and that is Dick Vermeil has a pretty good rookie in Derrick Johnson.
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Channeling Larry King
This week's installment of Encroachment is done in honor of Larry King. Longtime visitors to RealGM.com are familiar with Mr. Risdon's prior homages to the King's old USA Today column of rambling observations of the very obvious, 1950s B-list celebrity name dropping, bizarre non sequitirs, and dreadfully antiquated sports references.
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Don't Overlook The Rams
The St. Louis Rams are picked by almost nobody to make a return to the NFC playoffs. Apparently their crushing 47-17 loss in the NFC divisional playoff to the Falcons has made for overly critical eyes. Here's some Visine to help get the eyes focused more clearly on a team that could be a lot better than most people think.
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Parcells, Belichick And the Hall of Fame
Bill Parcells wondered aloud on ESPN how many other coaches had won multiple Super Bowls in different decades, then took another franchise back to the Super Bowl after finishing 6-10 the year before. Ultimately, the Tuna failed to get inducted, in no small part because most people failed to believe he was done coaching. They were proven correct when Parcells took over the Dallas Cowboys in 2003.
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Six Guys Under The Most Pressure
This season features as many as 20 teams who believe they have legitimate chances to make deep playoff runs. A quick check of the bombardment of preseason tabloids shows 11 different teams making the AFC or NFC Championship games, the vaunted final four that qualifies as a successful season.
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A New Dad's Football Lessons
On July 18th I became a father for the first time. My son Layne entered the world and I couldn't be prouder or happier. In those hazy hours of restless awakeness we share, I look at my big boy and dream for him. As someone whose football career was ruined by injuries, I envision for my son all the glory upon which I missed out.
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A Calculated Gamble For Shaun Alexander
Shawn Alexander of the Seahawks is the latest big-name player to pledge his allegiance to the annual summer rite of NFL crybabies: threaten a holdout due to the franchise tag. Since the CBA in 1993 added the concepts of "franchise tag" and "transition player."
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10 Cents On The NFL
The slowness of the Cowboys, a goodbye to Sam Mills, the rising Cardinals, NFL crime and the continue decline of the QB's from the 1999 draft in 10 Cents On The NFL.
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Browns Offense Improved But Still Weak
Since their return to the league the Browns offense has ranged from humdrum to pathetic and despite a new coach, new players and new excitement surrounding the team, don't look for the offense to do much better in 2005 than it has the past few seasons.
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