The offseason has changed the fantasy landscape slightly, so what better time than now to unveil the second version of RealGM’s 2008 Fantasy Football rankings?
Why is Art Monk in the Hall now, and Cris Carter isn't? Well, you have to understand the selection process first, where media representatives make the case for their players.
While everyone focuses on the marquee players that will be drafted on day one this Saturday, the key to building a winning team is by acquiring 5-7 impact makers. It was Marques Colston last year, who will it be this year?
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By Eric Galko
Last season was “The Year of the Upset” in college football. It started out in the beginning of the season, when Appalachian State pulled off arguably the biggest upset in college football history. But not to be out done, later on in the year, a Stanford team, without their QB and top offensive player, upset the USC Trojans, making another case for the most improbable upset in college history. Although now we know that absolutely nothing is a sure thing, and predictions can (and most likely some will) be wrong, here is my best handicapping ability on the race for the 2009 BCS Title.
Notables On the Cusp
- Boise State: They have great depth at RB and have experience and play in a weaker conference, but having a new QB will hurt, as well as the offensive line which should be a problem, is going to be an obstacle on their path to be undefeated.
- South Florida: Only two offensive players lost from a team last year who upset West Virginia and Auburn, and they are returning one of the best defensive players in the country in George Selvie, but losing both starting CB's and playing in the tough Big East makes it hard on them.
- Texas: Their schedule would tell you that they have a good shot at having an above average record as they have Missouri, OK State, Texas A&M, and Arkansas all at home this season. But, they lost 7 defensive starters and lost their two best offensive players in Limas Sweed and Jamaal Charles.
- Arizona State: They have the best chance of any of these teams because outside of USC, the Pac-10 is very mediocre. With Rudy Carpenter and the 13th ranked defense against the run last year returning, they could be playing for a BCS game if they can play well against the rest of the Pac-10.
Top 10 BCS Title Contenders
10. LSU
Reasons they will compete: When you win the national title the year before, teams will begin to fear you, and you are nationally recognized as the “top dog”. They have quick WR’s in Brandon LaFell, Jared Mitchell, and Terrance Toliver and an even quicker running back in Triton Holiday, who is a top track athlete and reportedly runs a 4.27 forty yard dash. They also bring back two great defenders in Tyson Jackson and Darry Beckwith, both of whom were top players on last year’s championship team.
Reasons they will struggle: Losing 7 players on defense will hurt significantly, especially losing Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith, and Craig Steltz, all of whom were leaders for their particular position. Schedule will play a big part as playing in the SEC is hard enough, but having to face Auburn, Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas all on the road should make their season long and grueling.
Deciding Factor: The play of new QB Ryan Perilloux will be very important since this team can defiantly compete again if he can consistently play well and stay out of trouble.
9. Missouri
Reasons they will compete: After taking many by surprise last season, teams will now take notice of their plethora of talent. Having freshman stud WR Jeremy Maclin and backup (yet played a lot) TE Chase Coffman returning, along with Heisman candidate Chase Daniel, this team should put up some points. It also is a big help that they get a somewhat easier schedule since they don’t have to play Oklahoma this season.
Reasons they will struggle: Losing Tony Temple will affect this team more than in the running category, but also in the leadership department. This team also lost starting WR Will Franklin and TE Martin Rucker, along with some offensive lineman. Having to play Illinois and Kansas on neutral sites, and at Texas and Nebraska, they shouldn’t have an easy road returning to the Big 12 title game.
Deciding Factor: The defense was no bargain a year ago, and it has to step up if they are to try to compete for the national title again.
8. Auburn
Reasons they will compete: When you return 16 players to your team, including 4 offensive line starters, you should have a great chance to compete. They have a great coach and brought in a few new faces to help on offense and defense this season. They also get the benefit of having a rather easy schedule because they play LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Georgia at home.
Reasons they will struggle: The loss of QB Brandon Cox might have been a blessing to some Auburn fans, but he was decent, and they don’t have a suitable replacement to be able to step in and do what Cox did. They used many running backs last season and didn’t have one over 1,000 yards, and if they can’t find a consistent starter, the offense should find it difficult to get in a rhythm and struggle because of that.
Deciding Factor: Their season will depend on a QB and a RB stepping up and taking control of the position. The O-Line is set, and some solid WR’s are there, but without a solid QB and running game, it’s tough to go anywhere in the SEC.
7. West Virginia
Reasons they will compete:
Pat White was one of my top Heisman candidates last season, and he is coming back, along with freshman sensation RB Noel Devine, who should be in the starting lineup this year. They also get the benefit of having Cincinnati, Rutgers, and South Florida coming to their place this season, giving them the inside chance to win the conference.
Reasons they will struggle: Not only did they lose their best RB Steve Slaton, but also they lost their “creator” in Rich Rodriguez. His successor will be their former offensive coordinator and former VMI coach Bill Stewart. He has Rodriguez’s players (for now) but did lose 7 players from their defense to graduation and the NFL. Even though they have the best chance to win the Big East, they need to be extremely consistent and be able to mimic Rodriguez system without him being there to win.
Deciding Factor: If the new head coach can find a way to work his version of the spread offense and they can replace their defensive starters from a year ago, they should have a great chance at winning the Big East and possibly going undefeated.
6. Clemson
Reasons they will compete: Clemson arguable has the best one-two punch at running back in the country, with James Davis being the thunder to CJ Spiller’s lightning. It also helps that they can throw the ball quite well, as they return All ACC WR Aaron Kelly and QB Cullen Harper, who had a 27-6 touchdown to interception ratio last season. Their defense was also very good, as they were 20th vs. the run, and 13th vs. the pass last season.
Reasons they will struggle: Losing a solid defensive contributor in DE Phillip Merling will hurt the defensive line while losing LT Barry Richardson will hurt the offense very much. Their biggest concern should be their schedule, however, as they have 4 straight away games in weeks 8-11 vs. Florida State, Boston College, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. It should be tough to beat the conferences' top teams a year ago, especially in consecutive weeks.
Deciding Factor: If this offensive line can come together and if the defensive line can stay consistent and be a dominating force again, this team could win the ACC easily and be challengw for a BCS crown.
5. USC
Reasons they will compete: You would think that a team that lost 7 offensive starters and 4 defensive starters would be looking at a down year, but that seams to be just the opposite for the Trojans. They replace a decent John David Booty with a lively Mark Sanchez and a slower Chancy Washington with a plethora of good RB's, including Joe McKnight. Also, they return star WR Vidal Hazelton and two of their three stud linebackers. They seem to be reloading rather than rebuilding.
Reasons they will struggle: Losing your LT, LG, C, and RT hurts a lot to any offensive unit, and even though they have the athletes to fill in for them, Sam Baker and Chico Rachel’s experience will be sorely missed. Also, the play of Mark Sanchez was “iffy” to most people, and he may not be the next USC star QB that everyone has already anointed him as.
Deciding Factor: Mark Sanchez (or even Mitch Mustain) needs to step up and take command of this young, yet extremely talented team.
4. Florida
Reasons they will compete: Returning for the Gators is Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, explosive athlete Percy Harvin, and a team loaded with young talent. They also could be with former USC running back Emanuel Moody, who left the school after he wasn’t playing enough. They have 5 All SEC offensive players returning and should improve drastically from their decent record a year ago.
Reasons they will struggle: Losing both Derek Harvey and Andre Caldwell, both important pieces to their successes a year ago, will hurt much especially if they can’t find a speed rusher and a big receiver to replace them. Also, with Tebow playing QB, power RB, and punching bag for this team, an injury could cripple them severely.
Deciding Factor: If Tebow can play like a Heisman Trophy player (again) then this team should mature right around him and thrust themselves into the top of the BCS rankings.
3. Georgia
Reasons they will compete: They are returning one of the nation’s best QB's in Matt Stafford, and arguably a Top 3 running back in Knowshan Moreno, both of whom should have great seasons. They only lost 3 starters on offense, meaning their BCS title contending offense is still intact. They are looking to build onto their 10-2 record just a year ago.
Reasons they will struggle: Even though they have experience, they are still a very young team and lack any true playmakers outside of Moreno, who is more of a tough, power back and not really a deep threat. They also have to travel to play South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU, and Auburn and have to play Florida in Jacksonville. Regardless of how talented they are, that schedule is brutal.
Deciding Factor: Stafford and Moreno make a great duo, but someone else on offense needs to step up to make this team truly one of the best in the country.
2. Ohio State
Reasons they will compete: After playing in the National Title Game the past two seasons, the Buckeyes are back for more, bringing arguably their best team this time. They lost only two starters on offense, neither of whom was extremely significant. They return all 4 of their best offensive weapons in Boeckman at QB, Beanie Wells at RB, and Robinske and Hartline at WR, as well as 2 of the best 3 defenders in Malcolm Jenkins at CB and linebacker James Laurenitis. Talk about a stacked team.
Reasons they will struggle: They lost their main defensive line threat in Vernon Gholston, who was a key contributor for this defense. Also, other teams such as Illinois and Penn State are surging and will be top contenders for the Buckeyes this season.
Deciding Factor: Boeckman and Beanie need to play similarly to how they did a year ago, and this team will glide to a Big Ten title and probably more.
And the top BCS title contender….
1. Oklahoma
Reasons they will compete: They return, in my opinion, the best pocket passer in the country in Sam Bradford. They also return DeMarco Murray, who could be the next great running back at Oklahoma as well some experienced receivers. But the main reason I choose them to have success is their offensive line, where Phil Loadholt and company should be the best in the country and lead this offense to a great season.
Reasons they will struggle: They lost 5 defensive starters from last season, including linebacker Curtis Lofton and cornerback Reggie Smith, which should force some younger players to come in unexpectedly. They were 68th against the pass last season, which wasn’t good, so losing some DB's isn’t a step in the right direction.
Deciding Factor: Bradford needs to repeat his play last season, and Murray needs to live up to his hype and be the stud back that they hope he will be. If their defense can contain some explosive offenses in the Big 12, they should be able to win the conference and be the top contender for the title game in 2009.
As I wrote earlier in this piece, the college football season has begun to be harder and harder to predict, and trying to handicap the BCS title race is almost a crapshoot. But with many talented teams this season, all primed for a big year, it should be a very interesting 2008 and 2009.
