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Bowl Preview, Part 2 (New Year's Day Through BCS Title Game)
Which player had the most impressive statistical season in 2009? Not surprisingly it was second-year running back Chris Johnson. Who was the top quarterback, wide receiver and tight end? Which players didn't have quite as good of a season as once thought?
Ten out of the top 11 teams in the Trench Counter reached the playoffs, including the Packers, Vikings, Chargers and Colts, who comprised our top-four.
Tom Brady has watched his Patriots fight their way to a 5-3 record through the first half of the season, and in actuality, he's pretty darn happy with where he currently stands.
While everyone focuses on the marquee players that will be drafted on day one this Saturday, the key to building a winning team is by acquiring 5-7 impact makers. It was Marques Colston last year, who will it be this year?
RealGM Search
By Jeff Risdon
The record on the early games has been a decidedly mixed bag although I have nailed five of the last seven games played (through the Armed Forces Bowl) and had really narrow misses on a couple of others. Last season I correctly picked all but one BCS game, and I hope to keep that mojo rolling.
Non-BCS Bowls
Outback Bowl Iowa vs. South Carolina: Iowa RB Shonn Greene exploded onto the landscape in 2008, and he should have a strong day against a USC defense that is much better against the pass than the run. The Gamecocks faded badly down the stretch, in part because Coach Steve Spurrier partially turned the reigns over to talented but green Stephen Garcia, a true freshman. Apparently the Ole' Ball Coach still hasn’t learned that when you play two QB's, it quite often indicates that neither one is good enough to get the job done. Iowa sports a strong overall defense that forced more 3 and out drives than all but two other teams (USC and TCU). This should be a defensive battle that comes down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. Judging from the last couple of games for each team, that strongly favors the Hawkeyes. This game represents the Big Ten’s best shot at winning a bowl game, and while it was a down year, it wasn’t that bad. Iowa 22, South Carolina 15
Gator Bowl Clemson vs. Nebraska: Nice matchup of two teams whose fortunes drastically changed during the season. Clemson fired coach Tommy Bowden and started playing QB Willy Korn more, and that really freed up their dynamic RB duo of CJ Spiller and James Davis. Korn recently had shoulder surgery, however, so the Tigers might have to revert to deposed senior Cullen Harper. Nebraska got hot once QB Joe Ganz got hot down the stretch. WR Mike McNeill doesn’t have outstanding catch numbers--just 29 on the season--but every ball but one that he caught resulted in either a 1st down or a TD. That kind of reliability plays huge in bowl games. I have a strong suspicion the Cornhuskers' defense is going to see a non-spread team on the other side of the field and rejoice, taking advantage of the QB uncertainty on the other side of the ball. Nebraska wins a back-and-forth affair, 20-17.
Capital One Bowl Georgia vs. Michigan State: Georgia is the more talented team and has great bowl experience, having won the Sugar Bowl last year. The question is whether they will come out with guns blazing after a disappointing season against a team they should handle. The Spartans are genuinely enthused to be playing in Orlando in January, and many times that can carry a decided underdog. Good draftnik matchup of the starting RB's, Knowshon Moreno of Georgia and Javon Ringer of MSU, both of whom are capable of powering inside and also bouncing it outside. The Spartans have taken game prep very seriously and want to use this as a springboard to a 2009 Big Ten title. I just haven’t sensed that same focus from the Bulldogs although they have demonstrated the ability to turn it up quickly. MSU badly struggled against the ranked teams it faced, particularly on defense, and this Georgia offense is more balanced and more explosive than any the Spartans have faced. This game is going to turn out one of two ways; either the Spartans catch the Bulldogs napping and eke out a close one, or Georgia asserts their manly vigor all over MSU. With a lot less confidence than most people have, I’ll take Georgia to win 34-20.
Cotton Bowl Mississippi vs. Texas Tech: Ole Miss has a better chance for success here than you might think at first glance. They were the only team to slow down Tim Tebow and Florida, and they finished the season on a major roll. Rebels' coach Houston Nutt knows how to get teams ready to face tough challenges, and Ole Miss has a talented, balanced offense that understands how to take advantage of defensive weaknesses. But their own defensive hands are going to be full trying to contain WR Michael Crabtree and the explosive Tech run-n-shoot offense. The Rebels are fundamentally sound in the secondary, but I’m not sure they have the depth to cover five wideouts on every play. Red Raiders' QB Graham Harrell does a terrific job balancing quick-hits with being patient enough to let downfield throws develop, and they are loaded with receivers who can make things happen after the catch. Both teams have proud defenses that are intent on showing they’re able to hold their own, and I think that will prevail in terms of game pace. Bet the under (currently +/- 70.5) in a Texas Tech 30-27 victory.
Liberty Bowl Kentucky vs. East Carolina: The Pirates were the media darlings in September, pulling off a couple of BCS-conference upsets and generating buzz for a potential at-large BCS berth. Then the wheels came off, though they did rebound to beat a good Tulsa team in their finale. Kentucky is playing as poorly as any bowl team and will start their backup QB, Matt Hartline, who was benched earlier for some truly dreadful interceptions. ECU sputters on offense themselves, so expect a low-scoring, field position battle. The Pirates have proven they travel well and aren’t intimidated by playing an SEC foe. So long as QB Patrick Pinkney manages the game well, ECU should cruise to a 20-10 win.
International Bowl Buffalo vs. Connecticut: Congrats to the Buffalo program for winning the MAC and earning the bowl bid. I’m a proud MAC grad (Ohio U. class of 96), and I’ve long wondered why that school even tried to field a football team. They were so traditionally terrible they made my beloved-but-football-challenged Bobcats look like a power. Those Bulls players possess a tremendous amount of character and dedication to the cause. Sadly for them, I think their reward will wind up being just making the bowl game after the great win over Ball State. UConn has grown from similar status over the past couple of seasons and has some decent NFL prospects sprinkled across the roster, and you can bet Coach Edsall is preaching to his players to remember that hunger and thrill of first success of the program. RB Donald Brown is poised for a huge day against a Bulls' defense that doesn’t handle power running well. Still, the Huskies faded badly down the stretch, and this bowl is a disappointing locale for a team with preseason Big East title hopes. I see it coming down to whether UConn regroups and takes it seriously, or if Buffalo can continue to ride the emotion and positive karma. I’ll take the karma and effect (Seether’s best album, BTW) and the Bulls playing close to home. Buffalo 33, UConn 29.
GMAC Bowl Tulsa vs. Ball State: Ball State rolled to a 12-0 record and did so in the tougher-than-you-think MAC West while Tulsa made the C-USA title game and notched some impressive wins along the way. Both teams suffered major turnover woes in their conference title games, and I am more inclined to believe Tulsa will overcome those woes more capably than the Cardinals. Don’t forget last year’s GMAC Bowl, where the Golden Hurricane annihilated Bowling Green 63-7. Ball State is better than that Falcons' team, but their defense will have major issues slowing down David Johnson and the nation’s #2 ranked offense. I really like Cards' QB Nate Davis and TE Darius Hill, both of whom will be playing on Sundays at some point, but Tulsa has better talent and depth in the trenches and strong bowl experience. Ball State strikes me as an overconfident group that feels like they deserved a better fate, and that’s a bad way to enter a bowl. Tulsa 52, Ball State 37.
BCS Bowls
Rose Bowl Penn State vs. USC: Understand I’m a Big 10 guy that has great respect for what Joe Paterno has accomplished this season, particularly on the defensive side. But this game is one of the biggest mismatches in BCS history. USC plays essentially at home with one of the best defenses of all time. Penn State scored a lot of points this year, but in watching their offense it was almost always a case of the defense making mistakes and the Nittany Lions exploiting them rather than offensive dominance. This Trojan D isn’t going to make those mistakes, not against an opponent they deem worthy and take seriously anyway. On a neutral site I might consider Penn State to cover the 9.5 point spread, but in the Rose Bowl? No chance, none. USC crushes Penn State 34-7.
Orange Bowl Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech: When I initially went through the bowl lineup to set confidence picks, this game wound up being the one I assigned the least confidence. I could make a compelling argument for both teams to win, and I know both these programs extremely well. The one distinct advantage I come up with is the Cincinnati pass defense against the Hokies’ spotty passing offense. Both VT QB's Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor will throw the ball up for grabs, and there isn’t a better secondary in the nation than the Bearcats fine foursome. Cincy coach Brian Kelly’s spread offense against Bud Foster’s pressure defense is one of the most compelling matchups of bowl season. The more I pondered the possibilities of this one, the more I liked the Bearcats although I still assigned this game a single-digit confidence value. Cincinnati 33, Virginia Tech 27.
Sugar Bowl Alabama vs. Utah: Alabama is really going to miss superb LT Andre Smith, suspended for improper contact with an agent. The Crimson Tide has quality talent all over the offense, but their depth has proven shaky in limited duty, and they’ll need every last yard against a physical team like Utah. The Utes are legit, unlike the BCS debacle that was Hawaii last year. They have a dual-threat offense led by a talented veteran QB leading a group familiar with playing in big games. They rolled over Oregon State the week after the Beavers shocked USC, and they also pulled out a tight game against a very good TCU team. They know how to handle defensive slugfests, of which this game has all the makings. I like the Bama secondary quite a bit; they play as fundamentally disciplined as any group in the nation, showing great fluidity and communication. I also like Tide RB Glen Coffee, hoping to make a strong impression on the NFL talent evaluators in what could be his last college game. Utah K Louie Sakoda is a legit difference-maker, but I think the dynamic Bama offense will be able to find enough success behind Coffee and super-frosh WR Julio Jones to render Sakoda’s clutch kicking moot. Alabama 24, Utah 16.
Fiesta Bowl Ohio State vs. Texas: Real tough test for the Buckeyes' massive-but-plodding OL, as the Texas defense has speed all over the field, led by a healthy Brian Orakpo, a likely top 15 overall draft pick and pass rushing demon. I actually like the Buckeyes' defense to match up well with the Longhorn passing attack, but as much as I’d love to trust the Buckeyes to score just enough to win, I simply don’t see it. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor isn’t there yet as a passer, and the Buckeye WR corps was one of the most disappointing units in the country. This shouldn’t be the blood-letting most pundits expect, but the Longhorns are deservedly favored by 9 points. That will be the final margin in a Texas 29-20 victory.
BCS Title Game Florida vs. Oklahoma: All the story lines in this one are going to get severely overplayed, so I won’t bore you with them. My gut feeling is that neither team has much experience playing in close games, and that the team which jumps out to an early lead should win. No disrespect to Florida or Tim Tebow and his talented supporting cast, but they make more mistakes than Oklahoma. Even one missed opportunity might spell the difference, and I’ve seen enough of both QB's to trust Sam Bradford to come out with no yips. I cannot say the same about Tebow, who has a habit of coming out throwing the ball like Nolan Ryan--real hard but not always in the strike zone. The Sooners win the expected shootout 44-36.
