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Which player had the most impressive statistical season in 2009? Not surprisingly it was second-year running back Chris Johnson. Who was the top quarterback, wide receiver and tight end? Which players didn't have quite as good of a season as once thought?
Tom Brady has watched his Patriots fight their way to a 5-3 record through the first half of the season, and in actuality, he's pretty darn happy with where he currently stands.
While everyone focuses on the marquee players that will be drafted on day one this Saturday, the key to building a winning team is by acquiring 5-7 impact makers. It was Marques Colston last year, who will it be this year?
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By Christopher Reina
The scoreboard is where games are officially won and lost, but they are largely decided by the team that wins the battles of yards per pass, yards per carry, penalty yards lost, first downs, and turnovers. For this reason, I created the following formula called the ‘Trench Counter’ to look at which team truly controls the game:
(2x Yards per pass)
+ (2x Yards per carry)
+ (.5 First downs)
- (Penalty yards/10)
- (2.5 Turnovers)
- (Opposing Team's Trench Counter)
For the 2009 season, our weekly team rankings will be based solely off this formula.
*Playoff teams in italics
1. Green Bay Packers: 9.7
The Trench Counter consistently seemed to like the Packers quite a bit more than their record indicated and I have emails from Vikings' fans to prove it. They finished the season on an incredible streak, with a 13.9 average over their final is games. Even though they were 11-5, Green Bay was second in the NFL in point differential with +10.3 per game. The Packers also were +22 in the takeaway/giveaway department, more than seven better than the second ranked Eagles.
2. Minnesota Vikings: 6.7
The Vikings jumped from 20th in yards per play to 11th and 18th in passer rating to first with a mark of 107.3.
3. San Diego Chargers: 5.9
From Week 7 on through to the end of the season, the Chargers were the most lethal team in football on a consistent basis. They didn't lose a game, were Trench Counter monsters and outscored their opponents by a margin of 330-184. They scored at least 20 points in each game this season, as they were a dream for gambling men who say, 'I always bet the over' and 'Nate Kaeding is my FFL savior.'
4. Indianapolis Colts: 5.9
While others were figuring out the various scenarios of how the Colts would absolutely finish the season 16-0, the Trench Counter told me another story that had more in common with their close games than it did perfection. Peyton Manning and the devastating defensive ends are as dominant of a force as we've ever seen, this Colts' team simply was never destined to be historically great.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: 5.9
One of my obsessions over the past couple of years has been to statistically prove that success is predicated largely on the passing game. The Steelers were fifth in team passer rating, the highest of any non-playoff qualifier. Pittsburgh lost countless heartbreakers and yielded a striking four touchdowns on kick returns.
6. New Orleans Saints: 5.8
Like the Colts, the Saints were punished by the Trench Counter for clinching homefield advantage early and not giving a full effort during the final weeks of the season. They had a -2.2 average during their final six games, but Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Darren Sharper have been looking to games played in winter 2010 since Thanksgiving.
7. Dallas Cowboys: 5.5
Tony Romo had to swallow a steady diet of criticism from people claiming he wasn't fit to be QB of the Cowboys, or simply was overrated, but he finished 2009 ranked third amongst active quarterbacks in passer rating with a mark of 95.6. That puts him, in order, ahead of Peyton, Warner, Brady, Brees and Ben. Go on down the list further and you'll see Favre, McNabb and Cutler.
8. New England Patriots: 5.3
Anyone who watched the Patriots closely knew that this team was too flawed to truly contend, but they still led the entire AFC in point differential (+8.9 per game), though they do have the Titans, Bucs and Jags to thanks for at least a little bit of that.
9. Baltimore Ravens: 4.2
The Ravens ranked higher in the Trench Counter last season, but were undoubtedly more balanced on both sides of the ball due to the emergence of Ray Rice and continued development of Joe Flacco, who outperformed 2008 Draft peer Matt Ryan.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: 4.2
I thought the Eagles would experience a falloff this season, so their 11-5 record created a situation where my expectations were exceeded. DeSean Jackson is significantly better than the most optimistic prognosticators would have expected and the combination of LeSean McCoy/Leonard Weaver was able to allow the Eagles to withstand another injury-plagued season from Brian Westbrook. The glass is undoubtedly more full than empty, but Philly will be Philly.
11. New York Jets: 3.3
The Jets started and finished incredibly strongly in 2009 and gave Mark Sanchez the most prolific running game (172.3 yards per game) since the Michael Vick/Warrick Dunn/Jerious Norwood of 2006.
12. Houston Texans: 2.3
This appeared to be the season in which Houston would finally reach the postseason, but a the utter absence of a running game and a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season left their 9-7 record on the outside looking in.
13. San Francisco 49ers: 2.3
The 49ers reached the playoffs in 16 out of the first 18 years of my life, but are now on a seven-season streak of missing out on the NFL's second season. When the 49ers missed out on the playoffs in 1999 and 2000, I thought it had been an eternity before they returned in 2001. At least they do have the game's best middle linebacker, an excellent running back, several promising receivers and two first rounders this April.
14. Denver Broncos: 1.7
The Broncos were a classic 'Tale of Two Seasons', with a 6-0 followed by a 2-8. Knowshon Moreno durably rushed for 947 yards, but will need to improve upon his 3.8 yards per carry average.
15. Atlanta Falcons: 1.3
The Falcons finished the season strong, with the only team to post a win over the Jets after Week 12, but the 9-7 finish was too little, too late. Matt Ryan was banged up and Michael Turner succumbed to the famous curse of the 370.
16. Carolina Panthers: 0.8
The Panthers finished incredibly strong over the final three weeks of the season to boost their finish here. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and company averaged 156.1 rushing yards per game, one of three teams over the 150 plateau.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: 0.6
Carson Palmer and the Bengals were ranked 17th in team passer rating at 82.7, just slightly above an NFL mean that was influenced downwards by the Browns, Lions and Bucs as it was the Vikings, Saints, Chargers and Packers.
18. Arizona Cardinals: 0.0
The Trench Counter liked Arizona even less last season and they of course went on to the narrowest of Super Bowl losses. The Cardinals were about the same defensively as they were in 2008, but fell off slightly offensively. Fortunately, they continue to play in the NFC West.
19. New York Giants: -0.2
Just as Eli Manning begins to prove himself as a legitimate second-tier quarterback with an exciting collection of receivers, the running game and defense begins to falter.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars: -0.7
The Jaguars were 7-5 going into Week 14, but lost four very winnable games to extend their playoff absence streak to two.
21. Washington Redskins: -1.1
I believe Mike Shanahan was the correct hire and he will quick turnaround a situation that isn't as dire talent-wise as their record might indicate.
22. Buffalo Bills: -1.6
While the Bills defended the pass well, they were horrible against the run and are now almost certainly without a longterm solution at quarterback. Their most successful accomplish this season was perhaps creating a situation where Terrell Owens became culturally irrelevant.
23. Tennessee Titans: -2.0
The 0-6 start was something an 8-2 finish couldn't come back from, but the Chris Johnson/Vince Young combo will continue to score points. Their defense, on the other hand, fell from second in points allowed to 28th.
24. Miami Dolphins: -2.4
It was easy to forget that the Dolphins won the AFC East in 2008 because they continued to look like a team that won seven games through more smoke, mirrors and wildcats than actual household name talent.
25. Chicago Bears: -3.8
Year one of Jay Cutler's tenure in Chicago started with four interceptions in Green Bay and finished with zero in Detroit, although 26 for the season. Chicago's success followed Cutler's, though it wasn't quite as cut and dried as it was last season with Denver; the Bears were 5-0 when he had a passer rating over 100.0 and 6-1 in games when his rating was over 95.0. Their only other win came against Cleveland when he had a passer rating of 66.7.
26. Seattle Seahawks: -3.9
The Seahawks big score this offseason was Pete Carroll, but the better and more important acquisition would have been Jake Locker had he come out of U-Dub.
27. Kansas City Chiefs: -4.3
The Chiefs invested heavily in Matt Cassel and though he didn't have Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, they certainly deserved a better return than a 69.9 passer rating (down from 89.4 in 2008).
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -7.2
I realize when teams clean house that there will be an inevitable downslide, but the 2009 Bucs were 26th in offensive yards per play and 24th defensively in yards per play.
29. Detroit Lions: -9.4
The Lions gave Matthew Stafford 377 pass attempts and though he had a 61.0 passer rating, I think we can fairly easily see that increase to the 80s in 2010.
30. Cleveland Browns: -10.8
The Browns were 32nd in total yards on offense and 31 in total yards on defense. Somewhat quietly, however, they won their final four games, including a shocking win over Pittsburgh that kept the defending champs out of the playoffs.
31. St. Louis Rams: -11.6
The Rams had a 1-15 record and a -261 in point differential
32. Oakland Raiders: -12.4
Oakland won five games and were 79 points better than the Rams, but it still pains me to put them dead last in this ranking. I wish I could see the light at the end of the tunnel, but I don't see it with this current core of players.
