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Post-Combine Mock Draft
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 10th March, 2007 - 1:30 pm
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I’ve been tinkering with a few selections based upon recent free agent signings and trades, talks with some NFL talent evaluators and beat writers, and a couple of hunch guesses. I’ll update again at the beginning of April, followed by the inevitable last-second tweaking in the final couple of days before the draft.
I’m only writing comments on the top 40 picks. If you want more, or wish to respectfully disagree with my mock, head to the message board here on RealGM. I would include the notion that you could also pat me on the back for a job well done, but it’s my overwhelming experience that message board feedback is about 95% negative, even if it’s about the statement, “Gandhi was a man of peace”.
1st Round
1. Oakland Raiders--JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU.
The concerns over his weight and drive are overcome by his tremendous arm strength and the fact that QB is the Raiders biggest area of need. Their offseason posturing thus far strongly indicates Russell is the pick, not Calvin Johnson.
2. Detroit Lions--Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin.
Ignore the trade for George Foster, as he’s merely insurance and depth. Thomas wowed everyone at the Combine, Lions GM Matt Millen included, and the Lions sorely need a dependable fixture at both tackle positions. This pick is the biggest lock of the draft.
His propensity for getting hurt is a legit concern for a team ravaged by injuries, but his explosiveness and the desperate need for a playmaker in the offense make Peterson the pick over Brady Quinn. One Browns insider I talked to assured me Peterson was going to be the pick, while another told me it’s 50/50 it could be Quinn. The Jamal Lewis signing has little impact on the decision, but the Eric Steinbach signing tips the hand towards Peterson. If the Raiders pass on Russell he’ll be the pick.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers--Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech.
The best overall player in the draft, Johnson has the physical ability of Randy Moss and the ethos of Hines Ward. The Bucs need to augment an aging Joey Galloway and a fading Michael Clayton at WR or else none of the 6 QBs currently on their roster will have any success throwing the ball. The only other consideration is Amobi Okoye.
5. Arizona Cardinals--Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson.
Adams solidified himself as the best overall defensive prospect with a great Combine. He’s a great package of power, speed, and technique that can get to the QB and also make an impact in the run defense. Jamaal Anderson is rising up draft boards and could overtake Adams here, as could Alan Branch.
6. Washington Redskins--Alan Branch, DT, Michigan.
The Redskins can’t afford a miss with this pick, their only selection in the first 5 rounds. Branch is a pretty safe pick, a high-motor run stuffer with enough agility to collapse the pocket. Coach Gibbs would prefer Adams, and a trade down to get a CB or DE and an extra pick is a distinct possibility.
7. Minnesota Vikings--Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State.
Ginn is perhaps the fastest player to ever enter the NFL, and he has shown good progress in honing the intricacies of playing WR. The Vikings will live with his growing pains in part because of his great ability as a PR/KR. There are lots of rumblings about trading up to get Johnson, and Cleveland might oblige them and still get their man here.
8. Houston Texans--Levi Brown, T, Penn State.
Brown impressed everyone at the Combine in spite of not running well, answering questions about his dedication and desire. The Texans lost last year’s impressive 3rd rounder, Charles Spencer, to a career-threatening injury, once again making this a pick of dire need. They’ll consider Brady Quinn and Amobi Okoye and would love for Peterson to fall here.
9. Miami Dolphins--Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame.
Miami will be ecstatic if Quinn falls here. Don’t be misled by the recent negative hype regarding Quinn; he’s not perfect, but he does many things very well and has gone through a successful franchise revitalization at Notre Dame. If he’s gone, they’ll take Okoye or Laron Landry.
10. Atlanta Falcons--Laron Landry, S, LSU.
It will be real hard for new Head Coach Bobby Petrino to bypass his college stud DT Amobi Okoye, but the success of Landry’s brother Dawan as a Ravens rookie in 2006. Laron is bigger, faster, and a better playmaker than his brother, and the Falcons sorely need a difference maker at safety. Several teams have Landry as the top rated defensive player, the Falcons included.
11. San Francisco 49ers--Leon Hall, CB, Michigan.
His faster-than-expected 40 time at the Combine elevates Hall back to where he ranked before a lousy final two games hurt his stock a bit. Hall is a physical corner who plays well in run support and handling taller WRs. Pairing Hall with Nate Clements allows the aging Walt Harris to move to the nickel, and suddenly one of the worst CB corps in the league is among the best, a necessity in a pass-happy NFC West.
12. Buffalo Bills--Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss.
Very similar to reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Demeco Ryans, Willis is a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine who lacks the freakish athletic measurements to go higher in the draft. The Bills need a replacement for London Fletcher-Baker, and Willis can step right in. Okoye and Hall are the only other viable options, though the team is very high on Dwayne Bowe.
13. St. Louis Rams--Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville.
Getting James Hall on the cheap mitigated the need for a DE, but the Rams still need strength up the gut of the defense. Okoye is only 19 and needs some technical refining, but his package of size, speed, and intelligence give him the highest upside of any defensive player in this draft. If he’s gone, expect Jamaal Anderson, Hall, or Reggie Nelson.
14. Carolina Panthers--Greg Olsen, TE, Miami.
The Panthers’ LB situation isn’t near as dire as most have made it out to be, but their pass catching options beyond Steve Smith are easily in the bottom 3 of the NFL. Olsen blew away the rest of the TE field in Indy with his speed, hands, and seriousness. If Willis and Landry are indeed gone by this pick, Olsen is an overwhelming favorite, ahead of Reggie Nelson and Paul Posluszny.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers--Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas.
Anderson has enough athleticism to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, and the Steelers might transition from the former to the latter under new coach Mike Donlin. Anderson is more limited outside of the pass rush than Adams, but he’s probably the best pass-rushing DE in the draft.
16. Green Bay Packers--Marshawn Lynch, RB, California.
I’m not sold that the Packers are sold on Lynch, but their hole at RB became more gaping with the loss of Ahman Green. Lynch runs with a similar style to a younger Green, a fluid combo of power and shiftiness. Just don’t ask him to block or catch. Both WR named Dwayne (Bowe and Jarrett) will be considered, and they’d love to get Ginn if he somehow fell here.
Nelson is a rangy playmaker, better in pass coverage than run support, and that’s precisely what the Jags need at safety. The loss of Deon Grant and the lengthy injury issues to Donovan Darius make drafting an impact safety an imperative, and Nelson always played bigger in big games in nearby Gainesville.
Houston is rocketing up draft boards thanks to an outstanding showing at the Combine and how highly his collegiate opponents regarded him. Having Deion Sanders as a personal mentor doesn’t hurt either. The Bengals desperately need a solid cover CB opposite Jonathan Joseph, and Houston can be that guy. Adam Carriker and Antonio Pittman are possibilities as well.
The #s 3-5 WR behind Johnson and Ginn is highly subjective from team to team. The Titans are almost certain to take one of them, and Meacham is both the fastest and has the built-in appeal of playing on Rocky Top.
20. New York Giants--Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State.
Timmons didn’t run well in Indy, but his consistent productivity at FSU still merits 1st round status. The Giants need a LB with speed who can actually finish a tackle, something Timmons does quite well. The Giants would love for Lynch to fall here.
21. Denver Broncos--Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska.
I’ve had Carriker to the Broncos in every mock I’ve done so far, and nothing has changed in either their needs or his ability. His dominance at the Senior Bowl workouts, showing a variety of speed and power moves, could have Carriker drafted several spots higher. If he’s gone, look for Charles Johnson or Jarvis Moss.
22. Dallas Cowboys--Justin Blalock, G, Texas.
Excellent physical blocker who can also play T. The Cowboys are in the midst of a complete OL shuffle, and the durable Blalock can step right in. The Cowboys might address their glaring need for a coverage safety like Brandon Meriweather or Reggie Nelson here.
23. Kansas City Chiefs--Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU.
Bowe showed impressive speed and athleticism at the Combine, enough that he’s the #2 WR on most boards (Ginn goes higher thanks to his KR/PR skills and raw speed). The Chiefs have needed a WR with good size and great hands for years, and Bowe fits the bill. Sleeper pick: Joe Staley.
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle)--Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State.
Even though they signed Adalius Thomas, the Patriots still need youth and depth at LB. Posluszny is an outstanding fundamental LB and a better athlete than he often gets credit. He’s got the requisite football IQ and team-first mentality the Patriots desire.
25. New York Jets--Jarvis Moss, DE/LB, Florida. Lanky pass rusher with a great knack for disrupting passing lanes, Moss will switch to OLB in the Jets 3-4 defense. The Jets need upgrades in the pass rush, and Moss is at least as competent against the run as anyone the Jets currently employ at OLB. Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Spencer, and DeMarcus Tyler are all in the mix, but Moss rates higher on the draft boards I’ve seen.
26. Philadelphia Eagles--Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers.
Showed in Indy he has enough speed to be a RB, yet still displays the power and bulk that made him the premier FB in the draft. The Eagles aren’t afraid to gamble in the draft to get a player they really like or ignore more pressing needs. Leonard could pair with Brian Westbrook to make a very effective backfield tandem. They’ll look at WR here as well, as it appears Donte Stallworth won’t be back.
27. New Orleans Saints--Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia.
Johnson surged up draft boards with an outstanding college season, but he’s a limited bull-rusher who might be a DE/DT tweener in the NFL. His good football IQ and strength to hold the line in the running game make him a solid pick for the Saints, who need run defense help and an eventual replacement for Charles Grant. New Orleans does like Anthony Spencer too, and Aaron Ross or Marcus McCauley are options if they decide to address their awful CB situation.
28. New England Patriots--Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State.
The Pats have a chronic need for CBs, and McCauley is the best athlete of the available CBs. Much like franchise-tagged Asante Samuel, McCauley will enter the NFL as an unpolished rock that has the upside to become an elite playmaking diamond. If they don’t wind up signing Donte Stallworth, Dwayne Jarrett will be hard for them to pass up.
29. Baltimore Ravens--Aaron Ross, CB, Texas.
Physical corner who loves to tackle and hit, Ross displayed tangibly improved technique in pass coverage in postseason workouts. His personality is a good fit for the swaggering Ravens, who can use an infusion of youth at CB. Sleeper pick: Ben Grubbs.
30. San Diego Chargers--Michael Griffin, S, Texas.
Racks up tackles all over the field and is an outstanding athlete. Lots of scouts question his instincts and coverage skills, but it’s hard to deny his ability when you see him near the ball on every play on film. The Chargers biggest need is a physical safety, and Griffin fits the bill nicely.
31. Chicago Bears--Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan.
Staley is a converted TE who never lost his quickness or agility despite gaining 40+ pounds of bulky strength. The Bears brass raved about him after the Senior Bowl and again in Indy, and Chicago needs depth and youth up front.
32. Indianapolis Colts--DeMarcus Tyler, DT, NC State.
We’re all sick of hearing about the Colts lack of size and ability up the middle of their defense. “Tank” is the stomach-soothing answer, a relentless competitor who uses his hands and feet very well. Sleeper pick: Dwayne Jarrett.
2nd Round
33. Oakland Raiders--Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC.
He’s either the next Plaxico Burress (good) or Mike Williams (bad). Recent interviews and unimpressive speed are having most scouts lean towards the latter. If he runs well at his pro day he will jump back into the top 25.
34. Detroit Lions--Daymeion Hughes, CB, California.
Hughes showed outstanding instincts and coverage technique at Cal, but his underwhelming speed hurt his stock. Since raw speed isn’t as vital in the Lions’ Tampa-2 coverage scheme, Hughes makes a good fit as Dre Bly’s replacement.
35. Tampa Bay Bucs--Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami.
His ugly role in “The Brawl” drops Meriweather, a top 15 overall talent. The Bucs have shown a willingness to take risks on character if the skill and need are there, and both are in this case.
Flex pick: if the Browns take Peterson at #3, it will be Revis or another CB here; if they take Quinn in the 1st, they’ll take an RB (Pittman, Hunt, Bush) with this pick.
37. Chicago Bears (from WAS via NYJ)--Justin Durant, LB, Hampton.
Durant is a physical clone of disgruntled but talented Lance Briggs, who will not be a Bear after next season (if not sooner). The Bears sorely need depth at LB even with Briggs still around, and Durant has the tools to be special.
38. Arizona Cardinals--Ryan Kalil, C, Miami.
The Cards just signed Al Johnson, but Kalil’s improved strength and bulk provide options in the interior OL, a weak point for years. Sleeper pick: David Harris.
39. Houston Texans--Michael Bush, RB, Louisville.
Power back coming off a nasty injury, but was considered a top-10 talent beforehand. The Texans desperately need a feature back, and they’ll forever suffer for passing on a talented Bush last year. They couldn’t make the same mistake twice, right…?
He’s more DE than LB, but Miami has had great success using Jason Taylor in both roles. Spencer is a great character guy who is as fast off the snap as anyone, yet rarely gets caught upfield against the run.
41. Minnesota Vikings--Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame.
42. San Francisco 49ers--Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
43. Buffalo Bills--Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse
44. Atlanta Falcons--Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
45. Carolina Panthers--David Harris, LB, Michigan
46. Pittsburgh Steelers--Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn
47. Green Bay Packers--Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
