| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th April, 2007 - 6:32 pm
 Some trades of picks, free agent signings, and recent pro days by draftees have forced some changes. Once again this is a conglomeration of talks with NFL scouts, beat writers, insider tidbits, and pure speculative guesswork. I’ll update it again the week before the draft.
You will note I mention several trade possibilities in this mock. I have strong reason to believe that Cleveland, Washington, and Houston are all actively looking to trade down in the 1st round to snare additional picks later in the draft.
1st Round
1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Does anyone really think Al Davis will pass on Russell’s cannon arm and great size, with his love of the vertical passing game? Coach Lane Kiffin is preparing as if Russell will be his QB already.
2. Detroit Lions: Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin
Lots of other mocks have flip-flopped from Thomas to Quinn and now back to Thomas. I’ve never wavered on Thomas going to the Lions, and nothing they’ve done shows any indication the Lions have changed their minds either, not even the signings of Mulitalo and Pillar. Remember: as many as 4 OL starters need replacing.
3. Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
I’m very confident this pick will be Quinn; it’s the team picking here that is the big question. As for the Browns: the lame-duck coaches want Adrian Peterson, the GM loves Quinn more. Guess who wins that battle. A trade down to get an extra 2nd or 3rd and both parties are happy.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Johnson is still the best player in the draft, yet still has almost no shot of being picked higher than here. Their loss, the Bucs gain. Tampa Bay gets the top overall prospect and fills a huge team void with one fell swoop.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I believe Adams is a better overall player than last year’s #1 overall pick, Mario Williams. His strength against the run and relentless pursuit gives him the edge. The Cards desperately need him; whether they’re aware of that remains to be seen.
6. Washington Redskins: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
He’s a bit of a reach here, but he’s the best pure pass rusher in the draft and the Skins set a team record for fewest sacks and most yards per attempt in 2006. They came away from his interview quite impressed, too. If the rumored Lance Briggs deal with the Bears consummates, the Bears would take Amobi Okoye here. The Skins just might take him too.
7. Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Do the Vikings need him? Of course not, but Cleveland and Houston both do. A trade up to get Brady Quinn by the Vikings would leave the Browns in this spot; a deal down to get Leon Hall or Dwayne Bowe would give this pick to Houston, Buffalo, or Green Bay. I’m picking the slot more than the team here at #7.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Laron Landry, S, LSU
Two very reputable sources insist that Landry is the top defensive player on the Falcons draft board, so I’ll trust their word. He does fill a glaring need and he’s a very safe bet to be an outstanding immediate contributor. But it’s real hard for me to see Coach Bobby Petrino passing on his former Louisville stud Amobi Okoye.
9. Miami Dolphins: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
He answered questions about his speed and footwork in Indy and during private workouts, re-elevating himself back into Top 10 status. The Dolphins strong pass rush will mitigate his iffy deep coverage skills, and his run support from the corner is outstanding.
10. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, T, Penn State
The best interview at the Combine, and it seems the buzz is focusing on his positives (run blocking, footwork) and not his negatives (pass technique, enthusiasm). The Texans dealt down in part because Brown is a perceived lower risk at #10 than #8. They could deal down again and probably still get him, and they just might do that.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville:
I’m one of the people who believes that 4 years from now Okoye will be the best defensive player from this draft. He’s got enough physical ability and intelligence to contribute right away at a need position for the Niners. Sleeper pick: Ted Ginn Jr.
12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
Very similar to reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Demeco Ryans, Willis is a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine who lacks the freakish athletic measurements to go higher in the draft. The Bills need a replacement for London Fletcher-Baker, and Willis can step right in.
13. St. Louis Rams: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
Conditioning and mobility issues are causing his stock to fall, but anyone who watched him collapse the middle of the line on almost every play in college knows he could be a very strong DL anchor. Sleeper pick: Darrelle Revis.
14. Carolina Panthers: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Olsen blew away the rest of the TE field in Indy with his speed, hands, and seriousness. The Panthers have almost no other receiving options to help Steve Smith, and Olsen was a willing blocker in college to boot.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
Can play any LB spot in a 3-4 or 4-3, capable of being an impact player as a tackle machine or a blitzer. The Steelers have long valued versatile, athletic LBs like Posluszny, and he can replace the departed Joey Porter. Sleeper pick: Jarvis Moss.
16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Perhaps the ultimate “need” pick of the 1st round. Lynch has shown good vision and a powerful burst, though it seems most scouts find him a boom/bust type. They will look to trade up to get Adrian Peterson if he slips past the #6 spot.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
Nelson is a rangy playmaker, better in pass coverage than run support, and that’s precisely what the Jags need at safety. The loss of Deon Grant and the lengthy injury issues to Donovan Darius make drafting an impact safety an imperative, and Nelson always played bigger in big games in nearby Gainesville.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Houston is rocketing up draft boards thanks to an outstanding showing at the Combine and how highly his collegiate opponents regarded him. Having Deion Sanders as a personal mentor doesn’t hurt either. The Bengals desperately need a solid cover CB opposite Jonathan Joseph, and Houston can be that guy. Sleeper pick: Adam Carriker
19. Tennessee Titans: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
He’s slipping a bit because he lacks experience at WR and his willingness to run patterns across the middle is unknown. People who question that have clearly not watched him return punts or kicks, which he’ll do for the Titans as well. The fastest player ever to enter the NFL, he’ll help stretch defenses for Vince Young and has experience playing with a mobile QB, an under-appreciated skill for WRs.
20. New York Giants: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
The Al Wilson trade fell through, which indicates two things: 1. The Giants know they are in desperate need of LB help, and 2. they are in the market to move up to get Willis. Timmons lacks experience and isn’t as instinctive as other LBs, but his athleticism will make up for a lot of that.
21. Denver Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
I’ve had Carriker to the Broncos in every mock I’ve done so far, and nothing has changed in either their needs or his ability. His dominance at the Senior Bowl workouts, showing a variety of speed and power moves, could have Carriker drafted several spots higher. If he’s gone, look for Charles Johnson or Jarvis Moss.
22. Dallas Cowboys: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Very well-rounded WR with great hands and good ability to get open, and the Cowboys need help at the position. Terry Glenn is on the downside and TO is, well, TO. Bowe is as high as 13th on some draft boards, but more pressing needs will let him fall here, much to Jerry Jones’ relief. Sleeper pick: Brandon Meriweather.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan
Staley is moving up draft boards thanks to his great footwork and TE-like athleticism, plus his professional demeanor in interviews and workouts. The Chiefs need lots of help up front, and Staley can play either T spot. They would love Bowe or Ginn to fall here though.
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle): Aaron Ross, CB, Texas.
With Asante Samuel not signed long-term and their seemingly chronic need for cover men, Ross is a good fit for the Patriots. His KR ability and solid tackling off the corner give him added value to a team that needs both.
25. New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, DE/LB, Florida.
Lanky pass rusher with a great knack for disrupting passing lanes, Moss will switch to OLB in the Jets 3-4 defense. The Jets need upgrades in the pass rush, and Moss is at least as competent against the run as anyone the Jets currently employ at OLB. Dwayne Jarrett, Anthony Spencer, and DeMarcus Tyler are all in the mix, but Moss rates higher on the draft boards I’ve seen.
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers
Showed in Indy he has enough speed and agility to play RB, yet still displays the power and bulk that made him the premier FB in the draft. Leonard could pair with Brian Westbrook to make a very effective backfield tandem. Note that I had this pick in my last mock draft and got ridiculed, but check out other mocks now and I’ve seen this pick on at least 4 of them.
27. New Orleans Saints: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh.
Very aggressive cover man who isn’t afraid to hit, Revis also offers premium ability as a return man. The Saints need another KR like Bill Parcells needs a Speedo, but his strong man coverage skills and high football IQ will certainly help shore up the Saints’ biggest weakness.
28. New England Patriots: Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee.
Elite speed and surprising toughness are what Meacham offers. The Patriots will be without 2006 1st rounder Chad Jackson in 2007, so adding another young, speedy WR is an imperative.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Justin Blalock, G, Texas
Blalock is a man-mountain who excels at run blocking and sealing a hole. He played some tackle in college, and the Ravens need youth and versatility up front, as Tony Pashos left and Jonathan Ogden is contemplating retirement.
30. San Diego Chargers: Michael Griffin, S, Texas
Racks up tackles all over the field and is an outstanding athlete. Lots of scouts question his instincts and coverage skills, but it’s hard to deny his ability when you see him near the ball on every play on film. The Chargers biggest need is a physical safety, and Griffin fits the bill nicely.
31. Chicago Bears: Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn
He’s blocked for 3 NFL RBs and all have spoken highly of him. Ruben Brown can’t defy the aging process forever, and the Bears are quite thin up front. Sleeper pick: Tim Crowder.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Jon Beason, LB, Miami FL
Has not met the expectations in terms of his athletic measurements this offseason, but Beason was highly productive in college and showed great range and finishing ability, two things vital to success in a Cover 2 defense.
2nd Round
33. Oakland Raiders--Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC.
34. Detroit Lions--Daymeion Hughes, CB, California.
35. Tampa Bay Bucs--Tim Crowder, DE, Texas.
36. Cleveland Browns--Demarcus “Tank” Tyler, DT, NC State.
37. Chicago Bears (from WAS via NYJ)--Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami FL.
38. Arizona Cardinals--Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State.
39. Atlanta Falcons (from HOU)--Michael Bush, RB, Louisville.
40. Miami Dolphins--Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue.
41. Minnesota Vikings--Jason Hill, WR, Washington State.
42. San Francisco 49ers--Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina.
43. Buffalo Bills--Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse.
44. Atlanta Falcons--Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia.
45. Carolina Panthers--David Harris, LB, Michigan.
46. Pittsburgh Steelers--Tony Hunt, RB, Penn State.
47. Green Bay Packers--Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State
48. Jacksonville Jaguars--Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
49. Cincinnati Bengals--Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
50. Tennessee Titans--Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
51. New York Giants--Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
52. St. Louis Rams--Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
53. Dallas Cowboys--Eric Weddle, S, Utah
54. Kansas City Chiefs--Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
55. Seattle Seahawks-- Lamarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
56. Denver Broncos-- Justin Durant, LB, Hampton
57. Philadelphia Eagles--Jay Moore, DE, Nebraska
58. New Orleans Saints--Arron Sears, G/T, Tennessee
59. New York Jets--Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina
60. Miami Dolphins (from NE)--Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
61. Baltimore Ravens--Tony Ugoh, T, Arkansas
62. San Diego Chargers--Craig Davis, WR, LSU
63. New York Jets (from CHI)--Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from IND)--Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
3rd Round
65. Oakland Raiders--Marshal Yanda, T, Iowa
66. Detroit Lions-- Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech
67. Cleveland Browns--Manuel Ramirez, G, Texas Tech
68. Tampa Bay Bucs--Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska
69. Arizona Cardinals--Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
70. Denver Broncos (from WAS)-- Ryan Kalil, C, USC
71. Miami Dolphins--Steve Smith, WR, USC
72. Minnesota Vikings--Brandon Jackson, RB, Nebraska
73. Houston Texans--Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston
74. Buffalo Bills--Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida State
75. Atlanta Falcons-- Samson Satele, G/C, Hawaii
76. San Francisco 49ers--Brandon Siler, LB, Florida
77. Pittsburgh Steelers-- Chris Henry, RB, Arizona
78. Green Bay Packers--Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
79. Jacksonville Jaguars--Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
80. Tennessee Titans--Ray McDonald, DE/DT, Florida
81. New York Giants--John Beck, QB, BYU
82. St. Louis Rams--Yamon Figurs, WR, Kansas State
83. Carolina Panthers--Josh Gattis, S, Wake Forest
84. Kansas City Chiefs--HB Blades, LB, Pittsburgh
85. Seattle Seahawks--Brandon Mebane, DT, California
86. Denver Broncos--Josh Beekman, G, Boston College
87. Dallas Cowboys--Mason Crosby, K, Colorado
88. New Orleans Saints--John Wendling, S, Wyoming
89. New York Jets--Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
90. Philadelphia Eagles--Paul Williams, WR, Fresno State
91. New England Patriots--Doug Free, T, Northern Illinois
92. Buffalo Bills (from BAL)--Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan
93. San Diego Chargers--Ryan Harris, T, Notre Dame
94. Chicago Bears--Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma
95. Indianapolis Colts--Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois State |
