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Football Meteorology For Week 6
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th October, 2008 - 1:52 pm
With John Herrera standing to his right dressed in black and appearing not unlike an undertaker, Lane Kiffin sat down at the podium for Sunday's postgame news conference.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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Last week’s forecast: a cloudy 7-7, leaving the season tally at 46-28. Sometimes when you go out on a limb, as I did in picking DET, SEA, and GB, a strong storm uproots the entire tree.
Speaking of trees, the seasonal change is in full force around these parts, with the leaves a beautiful mix of deep red and oranges. It just feels like football! Most of the country should see seasonably mild temperatures, low wind, and only a small chance of precipitation for the Sunday games. Optimal playing conditions typically make for fewer upsets although almost every team that plays in a dome is at home this week.
Bright sunny games
Dallas (5) at Arizona (10): The Pacman soap opera kicks in full force this week, and it comes at a terrible time. The best CB on the Dallas roster is Terrence Newman, who will miss the next six weeks and perhaps longer with a sports hernia. One safety spot is manned by 3rd stringer Keith Davis, and Pacman’s tenuous grasp on eligibility leaves the Cowboys' secondary real stretched against the pass-happy Cardinals. Dallas has to get more QB pressure from someone other than Demarcus Ware even though Ware could explode with a huge game against plodding LT Wayne Gandy and more plodding QB Kurt Warner. And then there’s the TO soap opera. Owens has never been a guy who handles not being the above-the-fold story on his own team, and he was already miffed about all sorts of perceived slights before Pacman stole the headlines. Cowboys' fans--this is what I was talking about when I picked the Cowboys to fall flat this year. We’ll see quite clearly how well Wade Phillips handles the drama. All that chaos, and the Cowboys still stand a good chance of outscoring the Cards, just like they always do. Dallas 34, Arizona 30.
Baltimore (9) at Indianapolis (13): This could very well be a deciding outcome for a playoff spot since both these teams appear settled into the mix for Wild Card contention. The miraculous comeback victory by the Colts last week is precisely what I’m referring to when I bring up “Good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose”. But Baltimore is also a pretty good team, and their ability to bring pressure from all over the formation will severely test a Colts' OL starting two rookies at guard. Look for a big week from Ravens' FB LeRon McClain, a Clydesdale looking to plow through the undersized ponies on the Colts' DL. Still, I just don’t see the Colts going 0-3 at home in their beautiful new stadium. Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 22.
Carolina (3) at Tampa Bay (12): The Panthers are really banged up and could be without 3 starting OL's. They have good depth, but Monte Kiffin’s defensive front is not exactly a good place to plug and play linemen. The Bucs have injury woes of their own, with both starting QB Brian Griese and WR Joey Galloway unlikely to play. Of course, the term “starter” is tenuous for any QB under Chucky Gruden, as replacement Jeff Garcia knows all too well. It’s situations like this where Garcia often shines, and the Bucs should be able to handle the two-headed RB monster of Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Williams is coming off a career game just a couple weeks after two national publications openly questioned him as a bust. Don’t expect a repeat; Tampa is light years better than the hapless Chiefs. Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 21.
Jacksonville (14) at Denver (8): I’ve been very impressed with the composed grit of the Jaguars the last three weeks even though they lost to Pittsburgh. David Garrard has found his confidence; the DL has played consistently well; and they are a team that has proven they can string together clutch plays in pressing situations. But what concerns me is their inability to run the ball, the trademark of the Del Rio regime. Take away the brilliant fake punt rush by Montell Owens, and the team has under 130 yards rushing combined in the last two weeks. Denver bounced back with a nice win last week, but they still have a porous run defense. They also have major issues in the defensive backfield, where even venerable Champ Bailey has been vulnerable. This sure looks like another nail-biter for the Jaguars and an exceptionally good fantasy week for kickers Josh Scobee and Matt Prater. On a hunch, Jaguars win 31-30.
Fair skies games
Chicago (16) at Atlanta (18): Not the sexiest game, but there are a few subtexts to this one that merit interest. A Falcons' win legitimizes the entire NFC South and proves my suspicion the NFC North is awful, a division that could be won by a 7-win team. Michael Turner faces a stern run defense that quietly played exceedinly well in Tommie Harris’ absence the past two weeks. The Bears' D has surrendered just 12 rushing first downs in the past three weeks, and opponents are averaging a mere 1.7 yards per first down rush over that time frame. Bears' QB Kyle Orton is proving he deserved the gig over Rex Grossman long ago but how well he handles big pressure from Jon Abraham is an open question. I worry about the Bears being overconfident after the hapless Lions, but my ATL spies tell me they’re worried about the same after the Falcons' impressive roadie in Green Bay. This is also one of the few games where the Bears lack a decided advantage on special teams because the Falcons have assembled very strong coverage and kicking units. This game represents the lowest confidence pick of the week, and I’ve changed my pick about 5 times since I started writing this piece. Mmm, waffles! Take the under in a Bears' 17-16 road victory.
New England (6) at San Diego (19): I haven’t seen a team with a more inflated opinion of its own ability than these Chargers since the US Olympic basketball team in 2004. Muppet news flash to Chargers Coach Norv Turner: You might actually have to offer a little instruction and perhaps make an adjustment or two. All the offseason surgeries and injuries have stripped the Chargers of what made them special, and now they are a deluded, declining power with serious problems in coverage and run blocking. They still have enough talent to beat many teams, but the Patriots are not one of them. Brilliant move by the Patriots to switch the order in the bunch formation, moving Ben Watson to the point and having Randy Moss outside. It gets Moss isolated on a corner with no safety help over the top, and Matt Cassel proved he can make the throw. That’s the pattern of offense that propelled the Patriots to perfection last regular season, and it should work here. Wes Welker is primed for a breakout game. Patriots win two in a row out west with a 36-21 win over the shell-shocked Chargers.
Philadelphia (15) at San Francisco (25): How many times can the Eagles steal defeat from the jaws of victory? Will Andy Reid ever figure out that he needs to keep the pedal to the metal for 60 full minutes offensively? Can Brian Westbrook play more than one quarter without injuring yet another body part? What will Desean Jackson do in his return to the Bay? On the flip side, has anyone seen Vernon Davis meet even one iota of the preseason hype I told you to ignore? Do the 49ers really miss Shawntae Spencer that much? How many more unblocked sacks can JT O’Sullivan survive? Will the Niners ever stop anyone on 3rd and less than 5 (opponents are 33 for their last 40 in such situations)? Can the Niners hang with any team with a pulse? I’m betting the answer to the last one is a resounding “No.” Eagles roll 37-24.
Cool windy games
Oakland (24) at New Orleans (17): First game for the Raiders since Al Davis exercised his right to fire Lane Kiffin. They catch the Saints at a bad time as they come off a humiliating MNF loss where they dominated the game. New Orleans is also getting healthier although they are going to miss rookie CB Tracy Porter. Too bad the Raiders have the worst passing attack in the league--last in completions, 31st in completion %, last in 1st downs, last in WR talent. Okay, the last one is arbitrary, but not many folks outside of Oakland would argue. Expect a renewed focus on fundamentals from the Saints after a penalty filled, turnover plagued game. Never bet against a desperate team with more talent at home. Saints 27, Raiders 17.
NY Giants (1) at Cleveland (27): If the Giants' team that plastered the Seahawks last week shows up against the Browns' team that bungled their way to a victory over the Bengals, Eli Manning could very well set an NFL record for TD passes in a game, and the Giants will cover the over by themselves. I don’t think it will be quite that bad, but the Giants are playing consistently awesome. Cleveland simply cannot beat a team that doesn’t beat itself, certainly not if Braylon Edwards continues to stink up the joint. The vultures (buzzards, for you Clevelanders) hovering over both Derek Anderson and Romeo Crennel drift closer as the Giants pummel the Browns 41-20.
Green Bay (20) at Seattle (26): The implosion of the Seahawks is flying under the radar, but it should be one of the biggest stories of this young season. A team that won a playoff game last season and brought pretty much everyone back is 1-3 and just got smoked 44-6 coming out of a bye week. As my preseason choice to make the NFC title game and perhaps win the Super Bowl (I only forecast the final four), I’m stupefied by the abhorrence of their pass coverage, from the punchless pass rush to the poor decisions by the trio of Pro Bowl-caliber LB's to the God-awful safety play and communication gaffes. Guess who’s coming to dinner in Seattle--the pass first, pass second, maybe pass third Packers. I’ve stubbornly held onto confidence in Seattle, but this week is the last when they have any benefit of the doubt. It helps that Packers' RB Ryan Grant couldn’t find a hole if he fell in one and that Aaron Rodgers is nursing a bum shoulder. Seahawks 32, Packers 24 in a payback game for the playoff annihilation last season.
Cincinnati (28) at New York Jets (23): Cincy has played well enough to win against both the Giants and Cowboys, sandwiched around a dismal effort against the Browns. What I take from that: They play to the level of competition. If they can snap out of that, they can toast the overrated Jets. This has the chance to look really foolish come Sunday night, but the gut instinct is pretty strong on this one, a la my picking the winless Dolphins to beat the Ravens last year. But only if Carson Palmer plays; no Palmer means no upset. Cincinnati 33, New York Jets 30.
Batten down the hatches games
St. Louis (31) at Washington (4): The Skins have been playing a dangerous game, falling behind early only to slowly crawl back and eventually seize victory. Their impressive run of zero offensive turnovers is going to end sooner than later, but nothing we’ve seen of the Rams indicates they have any ability to exploit either a Washington slow start or a sudden rash of turnovers by Jason Campbell & Co. This should be your elimination fantasy game pick, and Clinton Portis looks like a strong play for those of you in weekly salary cap games. If this game were in STL, I would contemplate the rumbling in my gut that tells me the Rams could break out this week, but I’ll chalk it up to too many Tootsie Rolls. Skins 30, Rams 17.
Miami (21) at Houston (29): When I predicted the Texans would start the season 0-5, I had this game in mind as their first victory. But a funny thing happened--Hurricane Ike made this Game 5, and the Dolphins are no pushover. Miami matches up very well to pound the Texans, with their ability to stuff the run, their strong OL fronting a creative running game, an aggressive pass rush, and their ultra-efficient passing offense. Houston has dropped two heartbreakers in a row while the Dolphins have beaten the Patriots and Chargers in their last two games and have suffered zero important injuries. Also worth noting is that the flu bug is virulent in the Texans' locker room, with at least 10 players reportedly receiving IV's this week. The outcome of this game won’t make them feel any better. Dolphins 20, Texans 13.
Detroit (32) at Minnesota (22): I’ve been a Lions' fan since the days of Jimmy Allen, Billy Sims, and Gary Danielson, and I’m not sure I have ever seen a more pathetic performance by Detroit than I did last week. That it came after a bye week against a division rival they swept in 2007 makes it all the more egregious. They will likely play better this week, but the Vikings are solid enough to handle it as that breakout MNF game by WR Bernard Berrian was not a fluke. Vikings even their ledger with a 36-24 home win.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games:
Last week: 3-2, putting the season tally at 19-8.
Texas at Oklahoma: Recent history suggests that when both teams are ranked highly, Oklahoma wins. Good game for draftniks, especially the matchup between Texas DE Brian Orakpo and Sooners' T Phil Loadholt. I like the matchup between the Oklahoma run game against the Longhorns' rush defense. Sooners 30, Longhorns 26.
Oklahoma State at Missouri: Every year I expect OK State to break out and win a big game against a tough opponent other than Oklahoma. Every year I am disappointed, and this year will be no exception. Missouri rolls in an entertaining 37-31 shootout.
LSU at Florida: The Tigers have the hosses up front to contain Tebow, but I’m not sure that LSU will have much offensive luck of their own. Gators 20, LSU 18.
Notre Dame at North Carolina: The Irish are indeed improved, but UNC features one of the best WR trios in the country in Brooks Foster, Hakeem Nicks, and Brandon Tate. The Tar Heels proved their legitimacy with an impressive win over UConn last week, and they nip the Irish in Chapel Hill 27-25.
Michigan State at Northwestern: This is the type of game the Spartans haven’t been able to win recently, but the Wildcats have no answer for Javon Ringer. MSU wins 30-24.
