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The NFL Reina Value
Authored by Christopher Reina - 4th March, 2008 - 5:09 pm
While there isn't a real marquee matchup, Ravens vs. Colts, Panthers vs. Bucs, Bears vs. Falcons, and Chargers vs. Patriots are all pivotal games in the standings.
Baltimore wants Flacco to be their QB of the future. But the Ravens feel they have no choice but to start him now because Boller and Smith are unavailable. Wrong!
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After creating the Reina Value for the NBA, MLB and NHL, we saved the sport perhaps most difficult to quantify statistically for last.
The Reina Value is a valuation system that quickly determines how players perform in relation to their contracts or in the case of the NFL, their cap value.
The importance placed on specific positions is far different in football than it is in basketball, baseball, and hockey. Because of this, we have separated salaries by position instead of having a single common pool.
Quarterbacks are compared to quarterbacks. Running backs are compared to running backs. Wide receivers are compared to wide receivers.
There are only four positions on the football field where we can truly use statistics to rank a player’s performance in the same ways we can for the other three major sports. Intangibles such as how a running back picks up the blitz or how well a wide receiver blocks for his downfield runners do not appear on stat sheets and in order to get a truly objective statistical ranking, these elements are unfortunately overlooked.
Using my custom Field Impact Counter (FIC), altered by position, we can however safely and accurately rank quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
* More information about the FIC at the bottom of this article.
Players are ranked from highest to lowest by the total FIC for the season, not per game because players only give contribute to a team when they are playing.
Beside each player’s actual salary, we slide in raw cap value figures of the position, ranked top to bottom, which determines their ‘deserved’ salary.
The player who has the highest FIC receives the highest ‘deserved’ salary. The player with the second highest FIC receives the second highest salary. The player with the hundredth highest FIC receives the hundredth highest salary.
We then calculate the percentage increase or decrease from the actual and deserved and that figure becomes their Reina Value.
Tom Brady, who had the highest Season FIC of any player, ‘deserved’ to make Carson Palmer’s $13.48 million salary. But, he only had a cap value of $7.35 million, giving him a Reina Value of +84%.
Terrell Owens had a very fine Season FIC of 903 in 2007, which put him fourth amongst all wide receivers. But he made more than any other receiver with his cap hit of $9.66 million. Because he ‘deserved’ to make just $7.32 million, he has a ‘Reina Value’ of -24%.
- Barry Sanders, 1997: 1,032 (2,053 yards rushing, 14 total TDs)
Season FIC and Reina Value totals for 2007 season
Quarterbacks
1. Tom Brady: 1,203 (+84%)
2. Drew Brees: 1,011 (+69%)
3. Tony Romo: 1,001 (+301)
4. Peyton Manning: 904 (+12%)
5. Brett Favre: 897 (-23%)
6. Carson Palmer: 888 (-34%)
7. Matt Hasselbeck: 871 (-7%)
8. Derek Anderson: 836 (+1,763%)
9. Ben Roethlisberger: 812 (+159%)
10. Jay Cutler: 809 (+278%)
11. Jon Kitna: 806 (+143%)
12. Kurt Warner: 740 (+23%)
13. Donovan McNabb: 752 (-18%)
14. Eli Manning: 696 (-46%)
15. Philip Rivers: 661 (-40%)
16. Vince Young: 643 (+51%)
17. Jason Campbell: 617 (+164%)
18. David Garrard: 597 (+120%)
19. Jeff Garcia: 546 (+1%)
20. Marc Bulger: 454 (-62%)
Brady’s historical 2007 scores higher with the FIC than Peyton Manning’s 2004, but Culpepper’s 2004 does beat it out. Culpepper had a higher completion percentage, nearly the same number of yards, 11 fewer passing touchdowns but 308 more yards rushing and 14 more first downs rushing.
Brees had a monster season from Week 8 until the end of the season, throwing 23 of his 28 touchdowns during that stretch.
Westbrook was the NFL’s most valuable running back because of how effective he was as a receiver out of the backfield. He had a receiving FIC of 529 and a rushing FIC of 494.
Tomlinson was clearly the best pure runner, with a rushing FIC of 572, while adding 334 as a receiver and adding five as a passer.
Ronnie Brown was on pace for a 1,138 season FIC before he was injured in Week 7.
Moss had an amazingly productive season, but Marvin Harrison’s 2002 beats it out in terms of FIC because of the yards and his ungodly amount of receptions.
Wayne was a distant second to Moss, but the Colts’ receiver did lead the NFL in receiving yards.
Marshall, Edwards and Welker had stellar breakout seasons.
Tight Ends
1. Tony Gonzalez: 769 (+8%)
2. Jason Witten: 755 (+68%)
3. Kellen Winslow: 706 (+74%)
4. Antonio Gates: 666 (+14%)
5. Chris Cooley: 540 (+256%)
6. Owen Daniels: 486 (+734%)
7. Dallas Clark: 458 (+150%)
8. Jeremy Shockey: 415 (-36%)
9. Heath Miller: 397 (+102%)
10. Donald Lee: 390 (+299%)
11. Tony Scheffler: 373 (+324%)
12. Desmond Clark: 356 (+55%)
13. Vernon Davis: 352 (-11%)
14. Alge Crumpler: 311 (-49%)
15. Zach Miller: 300 (+338%)
Gonzalez was as excellent as ever on a bad Chiefs' team and while Gates took a step backwards, Witten and Winslow solidified their standings amongst the elite of the position.
Overall 2007 Season FIC Leaders
1. Tom Brady: 1,189
2. Randy Moss: 1,034
3. Brian Westbrook: 1,023
4. Drew Brees: 1,003
5. Tony Romo: 993
6. Reggie Wayne: 966
7. Chad Johnson: 917
8. Larry Fitzgerald: 909
9. LaDainian Tomlinson: 906
10. Terrell Owens: 903
11. Brett Favre: 894
12. Carson Palmer: 885
13. Matt Hasselbeck: 863
14. Brandon Marshall: 855
15. Braylon Edwards: 855
The regular season was absolutely about the Patriots, namely Brady and Moss.
Six of the players were quarterbacks and just two were running backs. I believe this trend will continue as teams continue to use the running back by committee approach in order to prolong careers.
As a byproduct of this approach, seven out of the top fifteen players on this list are wide receivers.
* The FIC rewards players who not only score touchdowns but who also move the ball efficiently, catch numerous passes,pick up first downs, and don’t turn the ball over. Unquestionably, scoring is of paramount importance but a running back who contributes 60-70 yards of a touchdown drive and does not actually see the end zone shouldn’t be punished too adversely while the big back who punched the score shouldn’t be rewarded too highly.
