| Authored by Martin Barna - 24th November, 2005 - 1:18 am
 With two scintillating fantasy match-ups on Thanksgiving Day, I got to wondering which would be worse, burning the bird or forgetting to set your line-up before the Thursday games?
By that same token, if you’ve got any Falcons, Lions, Broncos, or Bears on your roster with a chance of having a halfway decent game, giving them a start might not be a bad way to make these games even more enjoyable to watch. Careful though, Charles Rodgers is still Charles Rodgers.
So before you sit down for your Turducken dinners on Thursday afternoon, don’t forget to set your starters, bearing this advice in mind:
FEASTS
Trent Green (vs. NE) – Green has thrown for four scores and 675 yards in his last three games. The trend continues this week at home against a Patriots squad that’s ceding 264 passing yards per outing and has allowed 20 passing TD’s on the year. Look for a pair of touchdowns and 280 passing yards.
Matt Hasselbeck (vs. NYG) – Hasselbeck and Green have had similar stats in the last three weeks. The Giants rank 26th in the league against the pass, so I’d expect Hasselbeck to post around 260 yards and two scores at home – especially late in a close contest.
Chris Brown (vs. SF) – Very solid pick here. Brown has 222 total yards and three touchdowns in his last three games, and the 49ers have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in ten games. Throw in the fact that he’s at home, and Brown could be looking at a couple of scores and well over 120 yards on the ground.
Curtis Martin (vs. NO) – The Saints defense plays the pass well, but is highly vulnerable against the run, allowing 139 rush yards per game. With the Jets’ instability at quarterback, Martin will get the bulk of the carries and could rack up some very solid numbers. As long as New Orleans stays within a score or two for most of the game, Martin could be looking at two trips to the end zone and 130 total yards.
Randy Moss (vs. MIA) – Moss hasn’t been the same since his injury in week four, but with Jerry Porter and LaMont Jordan now lighting it up, opposing secondaries will have to rethink the Moss-focused defense if they want to stop the Raider offense. As such, expect Randy to be able to get open downfield a few times, and, remember, with a guy like Moss, it only takes one big play for a big fantasy day.
Reggie Brown (vs. GB) – The McMahon-Brown combo might not be McNabb-Owens quite yet, but they do appear to be developing a chemistry. Brown has two touchdowns and nearly 200 yards in his last three outings, and Green Bay has given up 16 passing TD’s (and just five on the ground). 80 yards and a score would be a conservative estimate.
Deion Branch (@ KC) – I doubted him last week but won’t make the same mistake twice, especially against the 29th best secondary in the league. Brady shreds the Chiefs and finds Branch for 7 catches, 90 yards, and at least one touchdown catch.
Tony Gonzalez (vs. NE) – He might be back to the Gonzo of old in the yardage department, but he still has just one score on the season. Nevertheless, the Patriots secondary has been a passing TD ATM, shelling out 20 six-point passes through ten games. Expect Gonzo to make a 80-yard, one score withdrawal at home on Sunday.
Jeremy Shockey (@ SEA) – Shockey is averaging nearly 60 yards a game and has tallied six scores in 2005. He’s also been invaluable in tough rough games – which is exactly what Sunday in Seattle will be. Don’t be surprised to see him run up 75 yards and the strong possibility of his seventh TD reception of the year.
Cincinnati Defense (vs. BAL) – Yardage-wise, they’re not great, but with a league-best 21 picks on the year, they are a stellar fantasy play. Playing host to the improving Ravens this week, they are still a must start.
Tennessee Defense (vs. SF) – You won’t get a chance to start the Titans very often, but this is definitely the week to do it. At home against a 49ers team that’s only cracked 20 points three times all season, the Titans’ defense is a great pick up.
FAMINES
Ben Roethlisberger (@ IND) – Big Ben is supposed to come back for the Monday Night showdown in Indianapolis, but I think asking him to have a big game here is just too tall of an order, especially for a guy who isn’t usually a great fantasy play when he’s 100 % healthy. On the road, against a stingy Colt front seven, leave Ben on the bench for another week.
Chris Simms (vs. CHI) – If any of you think that you can pull a fast one and pick up some quick fantasy points, think again. The Bears’ defense is arguably the best in the NFL, allowing just nine total touchdowns, and generating 22 turnovers. Simms may be coming off two huge wins, but Chicago will roll out the official welcome mat by holding under 150 yards and keeping him out of the end zone.
Clinton Portis (vs. SD) – I thought he had a decent shot at breaking out this year, but its been another relative quiet year for the former Bronco star. If Washington hopes to turn around its recent slide, Portis will have to play a big part, but against the league’s best run defense, it will be just another scoreless, 60-yard afternoon for Mr. Portis.
Julius Jones (vs. DEN) – I’d really like to give you the go ahead to play Jones on Thursday, but it just doesn’t make sense here. He’s coming off an injury, and will be splitting time with Marion Barber. Against a hot Denver defense, Jones won’t break 70 yards, and likely won’t find the painted grass.
Anquan Boldin (vs. JAX) – Jacksonville currently boasts the league’s best passing defense, so I figured either Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald should be included here. I go with Boldin since he’s been injured, and since Fitzgerald’s having the better year, and has broken 100 receiving yards in each of his last three outings.
Keenan McCardell (@ WAS) – With Antonio Gates likely missing Sunday’s game against the Redskins with a sprained ankle, McCardell might appear ripe, but look what Washington did last week to Randy Moss in their loss to Oakland. Moreover, they’ve still only given up five passing touchdowns through ten games. Not this week, Keenan.
Muhsin Muhammed (@ TB) – Just because you saw him on Sportscenter last week doesn’t mean he deserves even the slightest consideration. This isn’t 2002. He still hasn’t broken the century mark in a game all year. He only has three TD catches through ten games, and he’s playing on the road against a strong Tampa Bay secondary.
Randy McMichael (@ OAK) – After a great start to the year, it seems as though the Dolphins’ opponents have figured out how to contain the young tight end. He’s shown that he can be a great red zone option, but he also hasn’t scored since Oct. 9. After laying a goose egg last week, look elsewhere for your starting tight end.
Todd Heap (@ CIN) – Heap is still waiting for a decent quarterback, and until the Ravens find him one, he’s just too unreliable to play. Against the Bengals at home, it makes the decision that much easier. Let’s move on.
Jacksonville Defense (@ AZ) – Call me crazy, but the Cardinals have only been held under 20 points twice in their last seven games, and seem to be getting into shootouts each and every Sunday. The fact that the game is in Arizona makes me even more leery about starting the Jags here. Proceed with caution.
Dallas Defense (vs. DEN) – Bill Parcells’ defense has been improving significantly through the course of the year, but on Thursday against the Broncos, I’m not sure I’d roll the dice. Denver is playing great football as a result of their well-balanced offensive attack, and for the first time of his career, Jake Plummer isn’t making any big mistakes. Starting Dallas probably won’t hurt you, but it won’t help you much either.
Happy Thanksgiving, and good luck in Week 12!
Thinking about starting a deep sleeper? Need advice on a tough trade? Ask RealGM’s fantasy football experts via e-mail at FantasySports@RealGM.com. |
