| Authored by Carl Setterlund - 25th April, 2006 - 3:49 pm
 ESPN has Mel Kiper Jr. to cover the NFL Draft for them. RealGM has Jeff Risdon. For years this is the way things have been. Each major sports organization has an expert on the inside. Today we’re not here to debate whether Kiper is equivalent to Risdon, just to bring up that I am not. Yet it would seem such a shame to have but one educated person predicting the draft for RealGM and that is where I come in.
I’m the Todd McShay to Risdon’s Kiper. Actually that probably isn’t a good comparison either, but know this: I’ve been pouring over every resource available to an “outsider” for the past month to get my wits about me. The thing to keep in mind is that the draft never “fits”, it never works out ideally for every team. This is an individual opportunity for each team to improve themselves and what they choose to do is influenced very little by what the public thinks and what would work out best for the other teams. Without further ado I present an “outsider” look at the way the NFL Draft will unfold.
1. Houston Texans - Reggie Bush, RB, USC
Maybe it’s true; maybe the Texans really do like someone like Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but they have to take Bush here. The star power is too large, and the Texans need this star power to invigorate their franchise. Bush is the new generation of an offensive player and will impact all facets of the game. He is number one.
2. New Orleans Saints - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
I really shouldn’t be doing this but I have to. New Orleans can’t take Leinart after investing so much money in Drew Brees, but I fully expect New York to trade up. After the success story that was Eli Manning, the Jets can’t accept being second fiddle to the Giants and that means getting a franchise quarterback back in town. Leinart probably isn’t the next Tom Brady but he already has that “it” factor, and he’s down-to-earth enough to survive in the Big Apple. Simply put, the floundering Jets franchise can’t afford to not come away with Leinart. The Saints want to trade down so the price shouldn’t be out-of-this-world either.
3. Tennessee Titans - D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
Word is that GM Floyd Reese is enamored with Vince Young while the coaching staff prefers Leinart. It would seem picking Young here is a moral victory for Reese, however this is way too high for that type of behavior. I think he gets outvoted and the Titans go with the franchise offensive tackle instead. Volek is an average starter at worst; he won’t end up being the problem with the offense.
4. New York Jets – Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina State
While New Orleans has other holes, and already has good defensive ends in Charles Grant and Will Smith, you look at the numbers and game tape and it tells you the Saints weren’t pressuring the quarterback at all last year. Williams is the best talent at his position since Julius Peppers and should meet similar success. He’s still raw so the Saints can legitimately give their other ends enough playing time to keep them happy. This is a case where the best available player is so good that you can’t let him slip by you.
5. Green Bay Packers - AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State
Most already have Hawk slated in as a Packer. From what I hear, the Packers front office loves Vince Young enough to take him here, but frankly I don’t think they have the cojones to make such a move. Drafting quarterbacks in the first round for two straight seasons is too much of a slap to Brett Favre’s face, even if they don’t plan on him being around this year. Everyone can imagine Hawk as the defensive captain of the Packers for years, it’s the move that makes the most sense and the one that may just lure Brett back for one last stand.
6. San Francisco 49ers – Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
After trading both Brandon Lloyd and Rashaun Woods, Alex Smith has even fewer weapons at his disposal. With two first round picks the 49ers are obligated to get Smith another target, even if it’s a running back. Taking Huff here and waiting until #22 to address the offense is an option, but the elite receivers will be gone and it may be a little high for Leonard Pope or Marcedes Lewis. Everyone has Davis down as the next Tony Gonzalez, and teams want to take him higher than this even though he’s a tight end. San Francisco can’t let this guy slip past them; I think Mike Nolan knows this.
7. Oakland Raiders – Vince Young, QB, Texas
Can you see Al Davis drooling? I can too. He’s screaming “What’s wrong with everyone?” while he has his team running up to the podium to take Young. Young is such a physical talent, such a winner, such an “it” guy, that Davis is going to turn a blind eye to the intelligence issue, the shotgun issue and the release point. Vince Young is a Raiders type player and everyone sort of sees this pick coming.
8. Buffalo Bills – Michael Huff, S, Texas
There are holes that may be more pressing, but Huff is the only elite safety in this draft. With Brady, Culpepper and potentially Leinart in their division Buffalo has to give themselves the best secondary they can afford. We know already that they value having a top secondary more than anything else. Slate the Bills for Huff, it just makes too much sense not to happen.
9. Detroit Lions – Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
I don’t think new coach Rod Marinelli is going to want to take a chance at a character risk guy like Winston Justice after so many recent top picks (cough, Charles Rogers/Mike Williams) appear to have character issues as well. Ngata is safer, and he’s just as dominant a talent. It’s time for Detroit to start stockpiling a little defense in the draft.
10. Arizona Cardinals - Winston Justice, OT, USC
Truly, I believe Dennis Green is in “win now” mode and taking Jay Cutler isn’t going to forward that. If it was Vince Young available then that could be a different story, but there is an immensely talented player at a position of need that they’re finding available. Arizona spent too much money this offseason in Warner and Edge for them not to adequately protect their investments.
11. St. Louis Rams - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida State
You could say Chad Greenway here too because they’re about equal as prospects. Greenway has the better college résumé with Sims being the more physically gifted of the two. I’m going purely on a hunch but I think they take Sims. Cutler has proven so little in college and Bulger still has two plus years left in the tank.
12. Cleveland Browns - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
Don’t think for a second that Bill Belichick is the only NFL man in contact with Kirk Ferentz, who is going to sell Romeo Crennel and company on this stud linebacker. While his combine results were unimpressive, Greenway has shown he’s a football player through his on-the-field résumé. His numbers were enormous and Cleveland could use another presence in the linebacker corps, even with Willie McGinest in town.
13. Baltimore Ravens - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
This situation would be ideal for the Ravens. Defensive tackle is one of their most pressing needs and here for taking is arguable the best tackle in the draft. We know Ozzie Newsome likes to stockpile the defense, and it needs it after all the blows they’ve suffered through free agency, the salary cap and aging. We also know that Brian Billick is stubborn sometimes and that he would still go with Kyle Boller at quarterback. With the likelihood that Steve McNair becomes available I think the Ravens go D over taking the last high rated quarterback on the board.
14. Philadelphia Eagles – Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
I’ve heard arguments the Reggie Brown is coming on so strong that you don’t want to mess up his development by bringing in another first round receiver. Let me tell you something, when your receiving core behind Brown is named Pinkston, Lewis and Gaffney, you take another first round receiver. Jackson is a physical freak who is still a bit raw, but the Eagles can afford to develop him. McNabb has show he produces when given the weapons (Owens), now it’s time to give him some more legit targets.
15. Denver Broncos (via Atlanta) – Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
Denver hates Ashlie Lelie and Ashley Lelie hates Denver, at least as of now. Rod Smith is 35 years old and 36 in under a month. With several other first round picks to address other needs, and likely no other good receiver available at #37, it’s easy to read the minds of the Denver brass. Holmes is just as good a player as Jackson and even produced far more on the field. This pick fits.
16. Miami Dolphins – Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State
Everyone is looking at the Miami roster and seeing the weakness at safety. With no other wide receivers to take this high, it’s just logical that Miami goes with a safety. Now Jason Allen could well be an option here, but I think Whitner is equally as talented so with Allen being a riskier prospect, why take the chance? The great Miami defense of yesteryear is getting old in a hurry and they need as much youth as possible.
17. Minnesota Vikings – Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
I have Cutler slipping a la Aaron Rodgers. His name was so hot just weeks ago, but more and more people are raising eyebrows at his 11 wins in three years as a starter. That said, Minnesota has to be ecstatic to find Cutler available here. Brad Johnson is a great game manager but is old, old, old. He’ll be able to teach Cutler how to win though which is important. The Vikings needed a good thing like this to happen to them after all that has gone awry.
18. Dallas Cowboys – Kamerion Wimbley, OLB/DE, Florida State
After taking linebacker/defensive end tweener (or hybrid as some like to say) Demarcus Ware in the first round, Dallas was met with encouraging results. Another year and another outside linebacker spot to upgrade. I don’t see why Bill Parcells and company would pass on someone like Wimbley who is both a physical specimen and a good value pick.
19. San Diego Chargers – Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
The Powder Blues traded Sammy Davis knowing this is the year to get a cornerback, and they’ll be happy to see they get the pick of the litter. GM AJ Smith isn’t afraid to take risks which is why I like them taking Cromartie. There is no cornerback more gifted than Cromartie who is a consensus top 5 pick next year if he had gone back. He’s raw and he’s coming off a torn ACL, which I know doesn’t sound too good, but believe me when I tell you that Cromartie is the kind of guy that can turn into a game changing cornerback. He’s got the height and quickness to stay with any receiver in the league or tight end for that matter.
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech
Kansas City is also in the hunt for a cornerback to go along with Patrick Surtain. After so many years of having a weak defense, the Chiefs have recommitted themselves to that side of the ball. There aren’t any wide receivers here to tempt them away from their objective, which is to finally complete that secondary. The only question is who they take. Williams is an example of how the mighty have fallen. Everyone had him at a top 10 pick before the last season and even recently many still had him hovering in that area. He can lack discipline sometimes despite his great gifts. With Herm Edwards in town now and several other leaders in that secondary this seems like the right situation for Williams to succeed. I think Kansas City is confident enough in their guys to agree with me.
21. New England Patriots – DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
People think they’ve got Belichick and Pioli figured out, and they do to an extent. They go with their guy no matter what. I can definitely see the Patriots moving up to grab someone else they like, but with several holes they could stand pat (excuse the pun) as well. Just because they go with their guy doesn’t mean that it can’t be someone more publicly appealing like Williams (ok fine, they did take guys like Wilfork and Mankins the last two seasons). There’s absolutely nothing wrong with DeAngelo other than his size, and he really isn’t all that small. This guy is a football player, the Jameer Nelson of this draft. Williams fits the profile to be Corey Dillon’s successor. Now Dillon still has a year left in the tank and Kevin Faulk is a great receiving back so Williams can have time to adjust. The Patriots have never been afraid of that though (see Ben Watson).
22. San Francisco – Manny Lawson, OLB/DE, North Carolina State
San Francisco traded up for a reason and it’s because they need talent on both sides of the ball. I’ve got a hunch that the 49ers traded up because their guy wasn’t going to be there at #37. Lawson was a well kept secret for a long time but now the cat is out of the bag, so to speak. After losing Julian Peterson and Andre Carter via free agency San Francisco now needs a dominant linebacker more than ever. Lawson has great physical gifts and is talented enough to be the LB/DE hybrid, Willie McGinest-type player of his generation.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jason Allen, CB/S, Tennessee
Tampa needs a safety. They’re looking at Charles Woodson, but Woodson isn’t sure he wants to switch to safety. The Buccaneers also need some depth behind Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly who are in the later portion of their careers. Who really knows what’s going to happen so let’s play it safe and get Tampa Bay a guy who can play both cornerback and safety. Allen has durability concerns so this pick could just as easily turn into Daniel Bullocks on draft day. Bullocks looks like he could be even better than his twin brother, who plays for the Saints.
24. Cincinnati Bengals – Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
Let’s get one thing straight, the Bengals don’t need any work on offense. An upgrade on the offense line? Maybe, but nobody make sense here. Logically I think the Bengals go with a cornerback here, but the question is who? Scouts inc. from ESPN likes Jonathan Joseph over Hill, but Kiper and NFL Draft Countdown have Hill rated higher. I tend to agree with the majority if only because Joseph is rawer, riskier (missed 2004 with a broken foot) and even older I believe. Hill doesn’t have ideal height but is a playmaker and has everything else going for him. This is going to be Marvin Lewis’ guy.
25. New York Giants – Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami
I really wanted to say that the Giants would clean up the rest of the elite cornerback talent, but I think they’d rather boost the offense one step further. Amani Toomer isn’t getting younger and while Plaxico Burress is a Randy Moss type talent, he also Randy’s indifference when the game is on the line. Steve Smith’s hugely successful season last year is what I think gives the Giants the confidence to take the 5-9 Moss here. While most positions are deep this year, most of the receivers after him are large, lumbering types as opposed to Moss who is a true burner.
26. Chicago Bears – Jonathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina
With the cornerbacks going like wildfire, Chicago has to use this pick on one. Sinorice Moss could have been an option as could be tight end, but Moss is gone and tight ends will be there in the second round. Chicago has made a commitment to defense now and they can’t just stop. Signing Ricky Manning Jr. lowers the need a cornerback but he could be in some legal trouble and isn’t a franchise corner. Joseph is a great talent and the Bears should have the time to spend on developing him. The sky could be the limit for Joseph which is why I can’t see the Bears looking elsewhere with this pick.
27. Carolina Panthers – DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama
Will Witherspoon was so much more important to this Panthers squad than a lot of people realize and the hole he left needs to be filled somehow. Ryans doesn’t have ideal size or speed but he plays football. He’s everywhere on the field and has a knack for making plays. He’s a great leader who was the catalyst on a stifling Alabama defense last year. Seems like the right guy for the job in Carolina.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
Jacksonville’s trademark has become their defense and they can’t afford to let that change. The proper investments have been made in the offense and they need to address linebacker. Losing Akin Ayodele was a huge blow to the defense. I think the Jaguars wish they could upgrade defensive end here with a guy like Tamba Hali, but they just can’t go in that direction here. Carpenter was overshadowed by fellow linebacker AJ Hawk at Ohio State but he does everything right on the field. He may have been helped by all the talent around him but Jacksonville is equally as talented. And make no mistake, Carpenter is going to be a great player in the NFL for a long time.
29. New York Jets - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
I don’t think the price for trading up is going to be this pick so now the question is where they go with this pick. I would say they need some offensive line help, but running back is just as big a question mark. Curtis Martin looked like he finally lost a step last year and being one year older shouldn’t help anything. Maroney is a first round caliber running back, so why not address the need now? He would at least be able to be an adequate back up this season before taking over the reigns in the future.
30. Indianapolis Colts - Joseph Addai, RB, LSU
Sadly for Colts fans I fear the front office is getting full of themselves. The feeling I get is that they think they are the new Patriots of the draft and that they’ll take “their guy” wherever they want. Even the Patriots haven’t been the Patriots in the draft every year and I have trouble believing Indianapolis replicates New England’s success. They need a running back in the worst way now, but Addai is not a first round running back.
31. Seattle Seahawks – Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami
Without Andre Dyson the Seahawks will need to address cornerback and it will be too late in the second round. Jennings needs to add some muscle but in every other aspect he is a first round talent. He should end up as another successful defensive pick for the Seahawks. And forgive me for saying this because it’s a terrible reason to predict Jennings here over someone like Ashton Youboty, but Kelly Jennings just sounds like a name you’d here watching a Seahawks game if you know what I mean.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers – LenDale White, RB, USC
With the last pick in the first round I can see Pittsburgh addressing the offense just like last year. White might not be healthy and he might be a tad heavy but he’s going to be an NFL running back when he’s at full strength again. Willie Parker isn’t suitable to carry the load by himself forever, but I think he can do it long enough for LenDale to get healthy again. A coach like Bill Cowher is exactly the kind of guy who will keep While in line. You can’t deny his talent and knack for getting into the endzone.
…With that we reach the end of the outsider mock draft. Who knows how much of this is accurate and whether or not there are hidden smokescreens being put up by certain teams. I am no Jeff Risdon, I’m not an NFL insider, but I never did claim I was. I am just a RealGM writer, getting the most he can out of what is presented. With depth charts, and several other ways to analyze which moves teams will make, my accuracy could be quite decent. You be the one to judge whether my picks are spot on. Or rather, we’ll let the draft itself settle this issue. Watch out, it’s coming this Saturday! |
