| Authored by Martin Barna - 12th October, 2005 - 11:48 pm
 As much as we’d like to believe that fantasy football is a game of skill, it usually takes a little more than a loaded roster to take home a league championship. Sure, you can play the percentages, stalk the waiver wire, and finagle your roster all you want, but if your top draft pick comes up lame with a season-ending injury, there’s usually not a whole lot that you can do. Sometimes, a little luck can make all the difference.
Such was the case with a number of unfortunate fantasy owners in a topsy-turvy week five, which seemed to be best characterized by the epidemic of injuries with big time fantasy implications. Included among Sunday’s long list of casualties were Michael Vick, Chad Pennington, Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green, Lee Suggs, Corey Dillon, Julius Jones, Thomas Jones, Deuce McCallister, Roy Williams, Darrell Jackson, Andre Johnson, Michael Clayton, Braylon Edwards, and L.J. Smith.
While this slew of injuries likely cost many owners a significant amount of fantasy points, they also create a number of job opportunities for deep sleepers to step up and produce. Just ask Matt Schaub (298 passing yards, 3 TD’s), Najeh Davenport (54 rushing yards, 2 TD’s), and Joe Jurevicus (137 receiving yards, 1 TD). Easy does it though – Antowain Smith is still Antowain Smith.
Onto the picks…
STUDS
Drew Brees (@OAK) – Despite a non-existent running game on Monday night, Brees managed to keep the Bolts in the game with 231 passing yards and several impressive fourth quarter drives. Against a Raider defense that’s nabbed just two interceptions all year, and is allowing over 270 passing yards a game, Brees will break 250 yards, and should be good for at least two scoring strikes.
Matt Hasselbeck (vs. HOU) – Hasselbeck threw for two touchdowns and well over 300 passing yards last week without Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram. He’ll have no problems this week with the lowly Texans, a team still waiting for its first interception of 2005. They won’t get it this week as Hasselback slices up the secondary for 280 passing yards and two six-point hook-ups.
Cedric Benson (vs. MIN) – Its beginning to look like Thomas Jones’ knee may not be ready for Sunday’s match-up against Minnesota. With the Vikings allowing a league-worst 178 ground yards per game, the conditions are perfect for the highly-touted Benson to make an enormous fantasy impact. I foresee 130 total yards and at least one trip to the end zone.
Willis McGahee (vs. NYJ) – McGahee may not have had the start to the 2005 season that many had expected, but he will continue his solid play against a Jets defense that’s allowing 120 rushing yards per contest. Given Buffalo’s uncertainties at quarterback, McGahee be the primary workhorse on Sunday. Thirty carries, 120 yards from scrimmage, and one score would be a conservative estimate.
Stephen Davis (@DET) – Davis has burst out of the starting gate in 2005 with seven touchdowns in the first five games. The Lions are giving up 120 rushing yards a game, and with Carolina protecting a lead in the third and fourth quarters, Davis should see more than enough carries to run up 130 yards and a pair of rushing scores.
Chad Johnson (@TEN) – Johnson expressed frustration after last week’s lost to Jacksonville for not getting the ball enough despite amassing 52 yards and one touchdown. He should get plenty of looks on Sunday against a Titans defense that’s allowed a league-high 11 passing scores. Johnson ups that number by at least one, and should near the century mark.
Torry Holt (@IND) – There’s feel-good story just waiting to break out for the Martz-less St. Louis Rams on Monday night. The only problem is that they’re up against an undefeated Colts team that’s amassed 20 sacks and 8 interceptions in its first five games. Bulger will be throwing early and often, but is a risky play against a dangerous Indy secondary. Holt is coming off a strong week five and may be the only playable Ram. Expect 120 yards and at least one receiving touchdown.
Terry Glenn (vs. NYG) – After a sterling performance against a strong Philly secondary, Glenn should continue his recent success against a Giants defense allowing over 320 yards per game. Throw in the recent tiffs between Drew Bledsoe and Keyshawn Johnson and you’ve got Glenn looking at upwards of eight catches, 100 yards, and one touchdown hook-up.
Alge Crumpler (@NO) – Crumpler scored for the second straight week against a stubborn Patriots defense. The Falcons now face a Saints team that allowed a humiliating 52 points last week. Look for the Saints to make it interesting at home, but Crumpler is a lock for 80 yards and a TD reception for the third straight week.
Todd Heap (vs. CLE) – Perhaps the only positive the Ravens could take from last week’s loss to the Lions the return of Todd Heap, who found the end zone for the first time all season. The Cleveland defense is giving up 232 passing yards a game and seems to struggle against opposing tight ends. Heap may not score, but he’ll net 100-plus yards on seven or more receptions.
Atlanta Defense (@NO) – Despite the final score, Atlanta’s defense played reasonably well against the Brady-led Pats. They’ll look even better against a Saints offense that managed just three points last week. Expect a low scoring game with plenty of sacks and two or three turnovers.
Seattle Defense (vs. HOU) – So I made a mistake. I figured the Texans would finally come around against a seemingly vulnerable Titan squad. I was wrong – Houston is terrible. That being said, you may want to look at grabbing an underrated Seahawk defense off the waiver wire for a couple extra defensive points this week.
DUDS
Trent Green (vs. WAS) – Green has been playing poorly with just three touchdown tosses in his first four games. Look for this trend to continue against a strong Washington secondary. Anything more than 180 passing yards and one score would come as a surprise.
Eli Manning (@ DAL) – With nine scores and only two picks through four games, the youngest Manning is finally starting to live up to his pedigree. Unfortunately for him, the Cowboys are coming off of a momentum-building demolition of the Eagles last Sunday. Dallas is only allowing 200 yards per game through the air and should be able to reproduce last week’s result against a less formidable Giants squad. Manning will be held under 200 yards passing and won’t score more than once.
Mewelde Moore (@ CHI) – Given Chicago’s overall performance in their first four games, one might think that Moore could be a sneaky sleeper start. Think again. The Bears are giving up just under 90 rushing yards a game and have yet to let an opposing back cross the goal line. Moore will be held under 70 yards and won’t pass the pylons.
Tatum Bell (vs. NE) – Bell had a superb outing last week with two long scores and 127 rushing yards against a tough Redskins defensive unit. The Patriots, however, have yet to give up a run longer than 20 yards, and should be able to hold Bell under wraps. Look for no more than 60 rushing yards on the day.
Corey Dillon (@ DEN) – As poor a play as Bell would be, Dillon would be even worse. Even if he does recover from his undisclosed injury in time for Sunday’s match-up, the Broncos defense is allowing just 88 rush yards per game, and has only given up three scores all year. If the Pats are going to pull this one out, it will be on Brady’s arm and not Dillon’s legs.
Hines Ward (vs. JAX) – Ward managed six catches for 83 yards on Monday in San Diego, but against a suffocating Jacksonville defense, the Steelers’ go-to wideout will likely struggle. Even if Ben Rothlisberger is able to make a miraculous start, the Jaguars are giving up only 155.2 passing yards a game. Ward will be lucky to score, and even luckier to break 75 receiving yards.
Laverneus Coles (@ BUF) – Vinny Testeverde may not make any bad mistakes, but he won’t make any big plays either – especially against a Buffalo secondary that is averaging a league-best 139 pass yards per game. Coles will likely lead the Jets receiving corps, but even he won’t find the end zone or crack 70 yards.
Mike Williams (vs. CAR) – With Roy Williams injury and Charles Rodgers’ suspension, Mike Williams may be the number one receiver for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, but against shutdown corners like Chris Gamble and Ricky Manning Jr., don’t even think about giving him the starting nod. Unless Joey Harrington suddenly remembers how to throw again, Williams’ line will read something like five catches, 50 yards, and 0 touchdowns.
Tony Gonzalez (vs. WAS) – Something is very wrong in Kansas City these days. Through four games, Gonzalez has managed just four catches for 129 yards and 0 touchdowns. This inexplicable trend will likely continue against a Washington defense that has allowed three receiving touchdowns and an average of 178 passing yards on the year. Gonzo might reach 50 yards, but will be kept out of the end zone.
Randy McMichael (@ TB) – With a TD catch in each of his first four games, McMichael has been a major reason behind Miami’s early season success. Look for his scoring streak to end as the Dolphins travel north to take on a stingy Buccaneers defense that’s averaged 157 passing yard per game and just two receiving scores on the year.
Jacksonville Defense (@ CIN) – Jacksonville has yet to allow an opponent to break 20 points, but that could easily change as they travel north to take on Carson Palmer and the rest of an explosive Cincinnati squad. Palmer hasn’t been making a lot of mistakes, so don’t expect much in the turnover department either.
Patriots Defense (@ DEN) – New England, once considered among the league’s premier defensive units, is allowing over 27 points per contest. The Patriots will continue to struggle in Denver against a well-balanced Bronco attack that managed to avoid turning the ball over last week against a solid Washington defense.
That’s all for now. See you next week!
Thinking about starting a deep sleeper? Need advice on a tough trade? Ask RealGM’s fantasy football experts via e-mail at FantasySports@RealGM.com. |
