| Authored by Martin Barna - 20th October, 2005 - 5:57 am
 Though last week’s column may have underscored the role of luck in fantasy football, it goes without saying that an extensive knowledge of players, teams, and statistics is the most important ingredient in the recipe for fantasy success. Owners that are able to sift through and process mountains of statistical data will obviously fare much better than your average pick-and-click fantasy footballer. Luck helps, but stat-crunching wins.
With that point in mind, here’s my Week Seven Fantasy Outlook – by the numbers:
0 – Number of rushing touchdowns allowed by the Chicago Defense through its first five contests. With Jamal Lewis and the listless Baltimore Ravens coming to Soldier Field on Sunday, expect low production out of Lewis, and, in light of the Bears’ ten interceptions and 14 sacks, even lower numbers out of Anthony Wright. The only guy to even think about starting is Todd Heap, who might be able to come up with one touchdown grab and 80-90 receiving yards.
1 – NFL rank in scoring of the New York Giants’ offense (29.8 ppg). With the Broncos coming to town on Sunday, look for 270 yards and a pair of touchdown strikes out of Eli Manning. Denver has allowed nearly 250 passing yards per game in 2005, so Plaxico Burress should be a lock for 100 and at least one score. I’m a little more hesitant to give the starting nod to an inconsistent Jeremy Shockey - even if he did score last week against Dallas.
2 – Consecutive number of games that Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell has posted at least 300 yards and two touchdowns. Brunell has come into his own despite two straight hard-fought road losses, and should continue his tear at home against a vulnerable San Francisco secondary. Look for the ex-Jaguar to continue his streak and hook up with his favorite target, Santana Moss, for at least 100 yards and one score.
3 – Rushing touchdowns scored by the Colts’ Edgerrin James on Monday against St. Louis. The last time James accomplished the feat was almost two years ago, but with the hapless Houston Texas coming to town, his next triple play might come sooner than you think. With the Texans giving up nearly 160 rush yards per game, James is good for at least two trips to the paint, but don’t be surprised to see Dominic Rhodes steal a few carries and a possible score in garbage time.
4 – Passing touchdowns allowed by Buffalo in 2005. In addition, the Bills are allowing a mere 136.8 passing yards per game, which doesn’t bode well for the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Toss in the fact that Randy Moss might not even be ready to play by then, and Kerry Collins might be in for a long afternoon. On the plus side, though, Buffalo struggles against the run and LaMont Jordan is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Chargers. If you’re betting on the Raiders, Jordan’s your man.
5 – Touchdown catches so far this year for San Diego’s Keenan McCardell - good for a tie for second in the entire league. With all the attention that Antonio Gates has been soliciting, McCardell seems to have flown under the radar all year long. I see him being a big factor against an underachieving Eagle secondary this week. Pencil him in for at least one score and 120 receiving yards.
6 – Straight games in which the New York Jets have been held to 20 points or less. Against a stingy Atlanta Defense on Monday night, expect this trend to continue as Vinny and the Jets produce 2-3 turnovers and fail to post more than one touchdown.
7 – Sacks by Indianapolis’ Robert Mathis through six games. Couple that with another five by Dwight Freeney, and three for Montae Reagor, and you’ve got the best defensive line in the league, and bad news for David Carr, Domanick Davis, and the rest of the Texan offense. Carr’s a lock for three turnovers, and Davis won’t break 70 yards or the goal line in this lopsided loss.
8 – Consecutive weeks with a passer rating of 100 or higher for Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer. The only problem is that the Rothlisberger-led Steelers will be in town on Sunday and should be able to contain an emerging Bengal offense. Pittsburgh has allowed just four passing touchdowns in their five games, and should be able to hold Chad Johnson under 80 yards and out of the end zone. Palmer scores once but manages just 200 yards, and fails to continue his passer rating streak.
9 – Number of runs of 20 yards or more that the Vikings have given up this season. It comes as no surprise then that they’ve also allowed a league-worst 161.4 yards on the ground in their first five outings. What might surprise you, though, is that I like the oft-maligned Ahman Green in his first week back from injury. Before you stop reading, look at what Thomas Jones did last week against this same defense – 89 rushing yards and a pair of scores. I’ll probably regret this on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and predict 90 yards and a pair of short touchdown runs.
10 – Passing touchdowns allowed by the Tennessee defense in their last four outings. The Titans travel to Arizona this weekend to take on an underachieving Cardinals squad. The one position where the Cards are stacked though is wide receiver. Even if Kurt Warner isn’t ready to start, both Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have a good chance of reaching the end zone and the century mark against a Tennessee secondary that’s giving up an average of 213 passing yards per game.
13 – Number of receiving touchdowns that Miami’s Randy McMichael is on pace for in 2005. The Dolphins next square off against a Kansas City team that’s giving up 278 passing yards a game so I like McMichael’s chances to stay on track for a breakthrough season. Chalk him up for one touchdown and 90 yards receiving.
14 – Interceptions through five games for a Bengal defense that’s give up just four passing touchdowns. As of Wednesday, the Steelers were still without star wideout Hines Ward. With Ben Rothlisberger in his first game back after a scary knee injury, I’m keeping my expectations nice and low – 180 yards, one score, and two picks sounds just about right.
28.8 – Points per game that the New Orleans Defense has allowed on the season. Sure, it was massively inflated by the infamous Packer blow out but the Saints are still giving up 129 yards on the ground each time out and have allowed seven rushing scores on the year. This sounds like music to Steven Jackson’s ears as he should get plenty of carries for the Marc Bulger-less Rams. Expect two scores and 150 rushing yards as St. Louis wins going away.
129.8 – Average rush yards allowed by the Jets Defense on the season. The Falcons may be without T.J. Duckett, so look for Warrick Dunn to get the bulk of the carries, rack up at least 110 yards, and reach the end zone once. On the flip side, the Jets secondary has played well of late, so starting Michael Vick or Alge Crumpler may not be in your best interests.
316.2 – Average passing yards given up by the Giants secondary. Surprisingly enough, the 49ers are even worse with 343 per game, but I’ll give San Francisco a break for now. With Denver coming to the Meadowlands on Sunday, I smell a 300 yard game for Jake Plummer, and a two touchdown, 140 yard outing for veteran receiver Rod Smith. New York is much better at defending the run, however, so don’t hedge your bets on Tiki Barber as he likely won’t reach the pylons. |
