| Authored by Martin Barna - 2nd November, 2005 - 7:39 pm
 Well we’ve reached the midway point of the 2005 regular season and as the league standings continue to stretch themselves out, we’re finally beginning to figure out which of the early-season fantasy studs were for real (Eli Manning) and which were pretending (cough, Cadillac Williams). We’re also beginning to see some of the slow starters, i.e. Jake Plummer and Tony Gonzalez, finally let the experts breathe a sigh of relief as they start to live up to preseason expectations.
And while we’re all in the prognosticating mood, I’ll go ahead and pass along this insider information that the AFC postseason picture will include the Patriots, Bengals, Steelers (Wild Card), Colts, Chargers, and Broncos (Wild Card). In that other conference, look for the Giants, Redskins (Wild Card), Bears, Panthers, Falcons (Wild Card), and Seahawks to play an extra game or two. The final four will be Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and New York, with Peyton Manning trumping younger brother, Eli, in Super Bowl XL in Detroit.
Onto the real (read: fantasy) picks:
STUDS
Kerry Collins (@ KC) – Collins was nearly benched a few weeks back, but since then he’s had several strong showings. Against a Chiefs defense that’s given up 14 passing touchdowns and 275 aerial yards per outing, look for 290 yards, including a pair of strikes to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter.
Byron Leftwich (vs. HOU) – With 1418 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just 5 pickles, Leftwich has been playing solidly all year long. With the 1-6 Texans coming to town on Sunday, expect Lord Byron to reign supreme with 260 yards and 2 or 3 scores.
Brendan Jacobs (@ SF) – Jacobs is my sleeper stud for week nine. With an explosive Giants offense taking on the 32nd ranked 49ers defense, I see fireworks early, Tiki Barber on the bench for a good part of the second half, and Jacobs playing a significant role in the clock drainage; it may be garbage time, but it all counts the same. Let’s say 120 total yards and at least one touchdown.
Mewelde Moore (vs. DET) – Another big sleeper here for the desperate Vikes. With Daunte Culpepper out for the year, Minnesota has two options: have Brad Johnson take a knee on every snap for the rest of the season, or feed Moore 25 carries a game and hope for the best. The Vikings won’t be able to run late in many games, but at home against the Lions, Mewelde will break the century mark and score at least once.
Thomas Jones (@ NO) – Jones is pretty banged up right now with a bruised rib and a nagging knee strain. That being said, however, he is expected to start on Sunday against the Saints. If he does get the nod against a New Orleans defense that’s allowed 13 rushing touchdowns on the season, I see a productive afternoon with two scores and at least 90 yards. Keep an eye on that injury report, though.
Hines Ward (@ GB) – Ward showed that he is completely back last week against the Ravens, and will continue to progress this week in Green Bay. The Packers defense is surrendering an average of two touchdown passes per game and will certainly cede that much against the Steelers. Ward will see plenty of looks, and should total upwards of 120 receiving yards – most of which will come on a long catch-and-run score.
Braylon Edwards (vs. TEN) – Edwards will finally get a chance to remind the league why he was the third overall pick when a shaky Titans secondary comes to town. Tennessee has allowed an abysmal 17 passing touchdowns and even with Trent Dilfer under center, I see Braylon amassing 120 receiving yards and at least one six pointer.
Santana Moss (vs. PHI) – Yeah, he put up a big stinker last week, but the Eagles’ secondary has been very beatable in recent weeks, and Mark Brunell has been phenomenal at home this year. Washington bounces back on the shoulders of the Brunell-Moss connection. Look for Santana to go for 90 yards and at least one scoring reception.
Marcus Pollard (@ MIN) – Pollard could be a good pick up this week against a Vikings defense that’s allowed 8 tight end touchdowns in just seven games thus far. If Joey Harrington does get the start, as he is expected to, don’t be surprised to see Pollard playing a big role in a considerably scaled-back Lion offense.
Heath Miller (@ GB) – How can you not love this guy? The no-nonsense tight end out of Virginia has reached the end zone five times in the last four games. Green Bay has allowed 14 receiving touchdowns on the year, and I see Heath continuing his hot streak. Expecting more than 45 yards, however, might be wishful thinking.
Jacksonville Defense (vs. HOU) – The Jags have been fairly consistent on the defensive side of the ball all year long. Opponents are averaging under 160 passing yards per game, while the defensive front has given up just two rushing scores on the year. With Houston coming to town, Jacksonville will keep the Texans to ten points or less and is one of the best week nine defensive starts.
N.Y. Giants Defense (@ SF) – An even better option than the Jacksonville Defense, however, may be the New York Football Giants, who are flying high after a 36-0 shutout of a very solid Washington offense. They now head west to face a mistake-happy 49er offense which, due to injuries, may be forced to start Cody “Punch-line” Pickett. Should be a fun one for Michael Strahan and friends.
DUDS
Tom Brady (vs. IND) – After suffering two season-ending losses in the last few years, the Colts will finally break through with defense at Foxboro on Monday night. The Indianapolis defense has managed 26 sacks and surrendered just five passing touchdowns on the year. I don’t care if you are Tom Brady, the Colts have been waiting too long for this one. Anything more than 180 yards and two scores would come as a surprise. Not bad, but throw in a couple picks or fumbles and it might be a good week to bench Brady for your second stringer.
Drew Brees (@ NYJ) – I know he’s finally clicking with Antonio Gates, but the Jets’ Achilles heel is their run defense, and when you’ve got LaDanian Tomlinson in your backfield, it just makes sense to give him 30-plus carries. If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. Brees will still throw for about 180 yards and at least one score, but you can do better than that for your starting quarterback.
Stephen Davis (@ TB) – Davis is in the midst of another solid year, but so is the Buccaneer defense. Tampa Bay is leading the league, allowing a measly 76 rushing yards per game. The Bucs have only surrender four rushing touchdowns on the year, and I don’t see Davis bumping that up in such a low-scoring affair. Expect about 70 yards to boot.
Clinton Portis (vs. PHI) – Portis may be coming off the worst game of his NFL career last week in New York, but don’t expect the Eagles’ defense to show him any compassion. With Jeremiah Trotter and Jevon Kearse on the other side of the ball, expecting more than 90 yards or a touchdown is probably a mistake.
Domanick Davis (@ JAX) – As I mentioned above, Jacksonville has allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year long. Davis is in for a long afternoon on Sunday with no scores and just 60 yards to show for it.
Joey Galloway (vs. CAR) – Galloway has quietly nabbed five touchdown catches in his last five outings, but with Chris Simms under center against a stingy Carolina secondary, I just don’t see that trend continuing. 70 receiving yards sounds just about right.
Chad Johnson (@ BAL) – Though he’s never short on amusing antics, Johnson will be short on receiving yards on Sunday in Baltimore. The Ravens are holding opponents to under 154 passing yards per contest. With Carson Palmer having some difficulty against such a quality defense, Johnson should come in around 80 yards at best. A Palmer strike may find the end zone, but it will be to T.J. Houshmandzadeh, not Johnson.
Anquan Boldin (vs. SEA) – After being declared out for the season due to a knee injury, an MRI revealed no serious damage and opened up the possibility for Boldin to return for Sunday’s match-up with Seattle. Even if he does make it back, the Seahawks are allowing just over 188 passing yards per game. Boldin will be lucky to break 60 yards and certainly won’t reach the end zone. Don’t risk it.
Chris Cooley (vs. PHI) – Though he appeared to be a very solid red zone option in the first few weeks, Cooley was dinged up pretty good in Sunday’s loss to New York, and has been losing touches to Washington’s other H-Back, Mike Sellers. Throw in the fact that the Redskins are facing a vicious corps of Eagle linebackers and you might want to see if Marcus Pollard is still floating on waivers.
Bubba Franks (vs. PIT) – Franks looked strong on Sunday in Cincinnati, but Pittsburgh present a whole new challenge. Franks only has one touchdown on the year, and will not add to that against the Steelers. Anything more than 40 yards would come as a shock.
New England Defense (vs. IND) – Even with the return of Tedy Bruschi, the Patriots just aren’t the same team as they’ve been in the last four years. This point will truly be exposed against Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and the rest of a seemingly unstoppable Colt offense. Ranked 26th in total defense, Monday’s match-up with Indianapolis should be all the reason you need to make a clean break with the Pats.
N.Y. Jets (vs. SD) – LaDanian Tomlinson may well break 200 rushing yards against a porous Jets defensive front seven. Though they play the pass well, this is definitely a good week to give them a rest – negative fantasy points are just bad news all around.
That’s all for now. Good luck on Sunday!
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