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Week Eleven Fantasy Outlook
Authored by Martin Barna - 17th November, 2005 - 3:43 am
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Well we’re entering the homestretch of the fantasy football regular season, and with the playoffs just around the corner, week eleven means two things: no more bye weeks to worry about, and just a few more weeks left to position yourself for fantasy postseason success.
Since most leagues schedule their championship game for week 16, a league with eight playoff teams has three weeks to go, while a four-team playoff leagues have four weeks left before the brackets are set. And for those not in match-up leagues, what were you thinking?
At any rate, here are my studs and duds for week 11.
STUDS:
Brett Favre (vs. MIN) – Eli Manning might’ve laid an egg last week against Minnesota, but don’t expect Favre to follow suit. The Vikings have still given up 16 passing scores on the year, and after a last-second loss in Minnesota in three weeks ago, so expect Favre to come out roaring at home under the bright Monday night lights. Give him three scores and 260 passing yards.
Byron Leftwich (@ TEN) – Fred Taylor is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s contest with the Titans, so expect Leftwich to step up in his absence. I don’t see him breaking 240 passing yards, but Tennessee has allowed 18 passing TD’s on the year, so three scoring tosses is a definite possibility.
Larry Johnson (@ HOU) – In case you’ve been living in a case for the last month, Larry Johnson has become a fantasy monster in Kansas City. With the Chiefs heading south to face the league’s worst rushing defense in Houston, look for Johnson to torch the Texans for 140 total yards and a pair of scores.
Ronnie Brown (@ CLE) – Although it was Gus Frerotte and Chris Chambers lighting it up last week, the Cleveland secondary is much stronger than its defensive front, which cedes 132.7 rushing yards per game, and Frerotte’s status for Sunday is still uncertain. Though Brown did split carries with Ricky Williams last week against the Patriots, Williams managed just 13 yards to Brown’s 64. Brown will break 80 yards and Sunday, as is a lock to reach the end zone.
Patrick Pass (vs. NO) – Big sleeper pick here, but Corey Dillon is still missing practice time, and with the Saints allowing almost 140 ground yards per game, this is a no brainer. Even if Dillon does play, New England will be in command in the second half and will look to Pass to run out the clock so snag him off waivers if you can.
Larry Fitzgerald (@ STL) – Anquan Boldin’s still dinged up and Fitzgerald has rolled up 279 yards in the last three weeks. The Rams have given up 18 passing touchdowns on the season and are ceding 240 passing yards per outing. Fitzgerald will break the century market and is a good bet to reach the painted grass.
Ernest Wiliford (@ TEN) – With Leftwich running up some impressive numbers against the Titans, Wiliford could be the main beneficiary. I see six grabs for 90 yards, and one touchdown reception against a spineless Adam “Pacman” Jones.
Donte Stallworth (@ NE) – You’ve got to figure that the Saints will be throwing quite a bit when they fall behind in the second half. Since Stallworth doesn’t lose points for picks, its all meat and no bone. Toss in the fact that New England has the second-worst pass defense in the league, and Stallworth could be in for a big day.
Jeremy Shockey (vs. PHI) – The Giants will undoubtedly bounce back from last week’s surprising loss to Minnesota, especially with a vulnerable division rival coming to town. Philadelphia is giving up 225 pass yards per game, and has allowed 14 touchdown catches in 2005. Shockey should be able to rumble through the Eagle secondary for one score and 75 yards.
Chris Cooley (vs. OAK) – The Raider secondary seems to struggle on the road, but they also play the deep ball pretty well. This bodes well for Cooley who has developed into the featured H-back in Joe Gibbs’ system. I expect 60 yards and a score at home on Sunday.
Seattle Defense (@ SF) – After Cody Pickett went 1/13 for 28 yards and one interception (Yes, you heard that right), the 49ers now bring in Ken Dorsey to see if he can’t make a difference. I’ll save you the trouble: he won’t. Playing at home, Seattle will hold San Francisco to ten points or less and should be able to generate 2-3 turnovers.
Dallas Defense (vs. DET) – Alright, so Joey Harrington picked apart the Arizona secondary last week for 231 yards and three TD’s, he’s still Joey Harrington and he’ll be happy to prove it to you this week in Dallas against the league’s sixth best defense. You think Donovan McNabb had it bad on Monday night, wait til you see Harrington and the rest of the Lion offense.
DUDS
Drew Brees (vs. BUF) – Buffalo may have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL, but unfortunately for Brees, they have the league’s second-best pass defense. Buffalo has also handled tight ends well all year, so they should be able to contain Antonio Gates. Expecting more than 180 yards and one score might be a mistake.
Kerry Collins (@ WAS) – While the Redskins secondary was shredded by Chris Simms last week, don’t expect them to roll over at home. The team is undefeated within the friendly confines of FedEx Field and should be able to contain the Moss-Collins combo. I see about 170 yards and one score.
Willis McGahee (@ SD) – So wait, McGahee hasn’t scored a touchdown in over a month and you want to give him start on the road against the league’s best run defense? Good luck with that.
Stephen Davis (@ CHI) – Davis has been playing out of his mind in the last few weeks, so while I won’t tell you to sit him, I will tell you that the Bears haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown at home all season long. That being said, don’t expect more than 80 yards, and consider yourself extremely fortunate if Davis manages to find his way into the end zone.
Curtis Martin (@ DEN) – So Martin listed as “probably” for a nineteenth straight game. Big deal. What is a big deal, however, is the Denver defensive front, which has only allowed five rushing scores on the year and is giving up only 85 yards per game. In Martin’s case, 70 yards and no scores sounds about right.
Randy Moss (@ WAS) – The Redskins usually do a phenomenal job of shutting down their opponents best receiver, even if they have given up touchdowns to secondary receivers in each of their last three contests. As such, Jerry Porter might be a safe start but Randy Moss isn’t. Anything more than 60 yards would be a surprise.
Deion Branch (vs. NO) – Two reasons: first, the New Orleans’ secondary isn’t as bad as everyone seems to think – they’re actually the fifth-best in the league; and second, with the Patriots lighting it up early, they’ll undoubtedly be keeping the ball on the ground for the better part of the second half. Sit, Deion, sit.
Kevin Curtis (vs. AZ) – The honeymoon is over for Curtis as both Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are expected to be at full health for Sunday’s meeting with the Cardinals. Curtis has had averaged 45 receiving yards in the last three weeks and with Holt and Bruce back, it would take a small miracle for him to reach that number.
Alge Crumpler (vs TB) – Crumpler has been the only viable option in the Falcons’ anemic passing attack. With the league’s second-ranked defense coming to town, there are plenty of better options than Crumper – that is, unless you’d be content with a touchdown-free, 40-yard afternoon.
Todd Heap (@ PIT) – If he had a quarterback, or even a running game to help relieve some of the pressure, it might be a different story. As it stands though, Heap has little fantasy value and, if a better option is available, he should be dropped.
Buffalo Defense (@ SD) – Though they were considered among of the league’s best defenses at the start of the season, it’s become painfully apparent that the Bills are utterly incapable of stopping the run. So with LaDanian Tomlinson next on the schedule, I think it might time to kick London Fletcher & Co. to the curb.
Philadelphia Defense (@ NYG) – Considering the fact that they could be on the field for upwards of 35 minutes, you may want to steer clear of the Eagles’ defense this week. The Giants may have looked past Minnesota, but they won’t make the same mistake twice. If you’re in a bind, Miami, St. Louis, and Kansas City would be much better plays.
That’s all for now – good luck in week 11!
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