| Thomas Gass. 8th November, 2005 - 10:40 pm
 Let’s be honest with ourselves here; no one in New England should have been surprised by Monday night’s outcome.
The Colts are possibly the most complete team in the league at this point. Currently, they lead the league in Total DVOA, which is the sum of a team’s offensive DVOA (in which they are currently second, behind Seattle), defensive DVOA (a very respectable fourth) and special teams DVOA, in which they are currently ranked 31st, but, at -6.6% DVOA, does not seriously detract from the total values. (Explanation of DVOA and all other esoteric statistics can be found at www.footballoutsiders.com)
On offense, absolutely dominant; first in pass offense DVOA, fifth in rush offense DVOA. Peyton Manning is third in DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement) with a 46.5, behind MVP-worthy Carson Palmer and Monday night’s counterpart Tom Brady, whose 50.7 DPAR leads all quarterbacks. Manning’s backfield mate, Edgerrin James has been as valuable; he leads the league in DPAR for running backs with 23.7, just edging out MVP-in-his-own-right Shaun Alexander’s 23.5 DPAR. The numbers could go on, and they do: three receivers (Harrison 26th, Wayne 31st, Stokley 44th) in the top 50 in receiver DPAR, Dallas Clark 17th in tight end DPAR, and an offensive line that leads the league with a 4.96 adjusted line yards and has only allowed five sacks all season.
While everyone has raved about the amazing metamorphosis of the Colts’ defense, most have heaped praise on the defensive front, which as good as they are, have been a bit more pedestrian than one would believe. They’re only 19th in defensive adjusted line yards, 23rd in power rank, 18th in 10+ rank, 11th in stuffed rank, and 18th in adjusted sack rate and 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Whereas the front four have been surprisingly mediocre, the same cannot be said for the Colts’ pass defense and, more importantly, the secondary which has gone from inept (18th in pass defense DVOA in 2004) to outstanding (3rd in 2005). And much of this praise can be heaped on the Colts’ linebackers, especially Cato June and Gary Brackett, who have immensely improved their covering of mid-range passing lanes. Last season the Colts were easily undone by these kind of passes (see the New England games), mostly because there was nobody stepping up in between the secondary and the defensive line.
Egghead numbers aside, there’s also the fact that the Colts are still the only undefeated team in football, lead the league in fewest points allowed, and are fourth in the league in total offensive yards per game…all while allegedly playing conservative, clock-management football. Simply put; this may be the best all-around football team the NFL has seen in a long while.
And it sure looked that way Monday night as the Colts easily handled the defending champs, sending them reeling into mediocrity, 40-21. The sad thing is this was a game the Patriots could have won.
On paper, the Patriots could hardly compare; inconsistent offense, terrible defense, prone to allowing big plays early (as evidenced by Manning to Harrison for 48 yards scarcely a minute and a half in) and not stopping third down conversions (as evidenced by almost every Colts’ third down). But the Belichick-era Patriots have (had?) always found a way to play well above their means in crucial situations. Through injuries (especially the perennial pox on the secondary), mediocrity (Antowain Smith, anyone?), and scrap-heap reclamation projects, the Pats won three Super Bowls.
This season has seen these problems magnified; the injuries more severe and crippling, the mediocrity boggling (whither Corey Dillon?), and the reclamation projects amusingly bemusing. (David Terrell, we hardly knew ye.) The team could hardly rise above these troubles and, as a result, found themselves a soft 4-3 heading into Monday night’s affair; a 4-3 which could easily have been 2-5 if it were not for the patented last-minute heroics of Tom Brady.
But there the Pats were, down 14-7 in the red zone with 2:18 left to play in the half, poised to enter the locker room tied with the Colts, a huge morale victory in of itself, when the bottom fell out.
Now, it’s hard to fault Dillon, who was victim of a viciously defensive gang mugging by the Colts’ line, for the Patriots’ failure to match the Colts’ torrid output in the second half but had that one play never occurred, the Pats would have most likely either tied the score or been down 14-10, both huge morale-boosting scores, when the half ended. Instead, history, as it is wont to do, happened: The Colts recovered the fumble, Manning marched up the field with Tom Brady-like efficiency and the Colts drove the proverbial final nail in the coffin with a ten yard spike to Reggie Wayne, making it 21-7.
Of course, the Patriots did make things interesting late in the third when, after allowing yet another easy Colts’ touchdown, Brady pulled his best Manning impression by hitting tight end Ben Watson twice for a total of 30 yards and cumulated the scoring drive by throwing it to other TE Daniel Graham, who rumbled in for a 31 yard score. On the ensuing kickoff, with the Patriots down a reasonable two scores and a little under six minutes to play in the third, the inexplicable happened; Bill Belichick, the genius (or, more aptly, The Genius) goofed. He decided to go for an onside kick.
Now, I don’t pretend to know what his reasoning was for this particular play so we shouldn’t bother to try to understand. We can surmise that, hopefully, in the dark recesses of Bill’s expanse of a mind, he actually thought it might work. But logically it doesn’t float; the Patriots were down two scores with five minutes to go in the third quarter. One successful defensive stand and you have the ball with pretty much two minutes of the third quarter and the rest of the fourth to stage a comeback. With the way the Pats were moving the ball on offense, it shouldn’t have been difficult to accomplish this. Why the onside kick? Maybe he just realized that the Patriots couldn’t stop the Colts and resolved to just let them score and get it over with and let the Pats have more time on the board to do their work.
In any event, the Pats were simply outplayed and lost to the better team. And, for once, it doesn’t hurt to call the Colts “the better team” because, for once, they are, inarguably, the better team, in all facets of the game. |
